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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #1,061
  • May 6, 2011 3:46am May 6, 2011 3:46am
Quoting NoahEffect

Eager to view the posted charts when I get the chance, loving having a place to discuss the pitch and shoot the shit.
I'm pleased to hear that. You opened my eyes a bit and made me work twice as hard this week. Anyway, I have a couple of entries USD/JPY which will probably get kicked. Not much liquidity from my stops, though. I'm a cagey geezer these days.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,062
  • May 6, 2011 11:02am May 6, 2011 11:02am
Well, had an enjoyable day at the stables, and then return to read this:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...761201,00.html

...if this transpires, the proverbial is about to start hitting.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #1,063
  • May 8, 2011 3:24am May 8, 2011 3:24am
End of the bull run for the time being?
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #1,064
  • May 8, 2011 5:16am May 8, 2011 5:16am
A few thoughts on where this may be heading.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #1,065
  • May 8, 2011 5:39am May 8, 2011 5:39am
If true, this may put a dampener on any gains for Cable next week.:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...yet-again.html
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #1,066
  • May 10, 2011 11:37am May 10, 2011 11:37am
Hi All,

Daily and 4hr have formed clear PInbars at previous range resistance now key support zone 6394-6344. I have had buy orders triggered around 1.63 and will be looking for clearer reversal signals before loading up further lots and playing the trade upto 1.67 for target area 1. Should we get a close below the low of the daily PIN I will be looking to exit and wait for 1.61 zone to be reached before considering long again.

Hope everyone is well.

Stocky
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  • #1,067
  • May 10, 2011 12:24pm May 10, 2011 12:24pm
Yes I'm setting some PA longs off this level. GBP/JPY looking interesting, too.
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  • #1,068
  • May 10, 2011 12:31pm May 10, 2011 12:31pm
Here's an hourly chart. Funny you should post just now, Stocky...

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  • #1,069
  • May 11, 2011 4:33am May 11, 2011 4:33am
Just thought I'd post this USDX chart as I've got nothing else better to do. I'm reading "Day of the Jackal" at the moment and although the film was a brilliant adaptation, the book's outline of France's political turmoil of the time is fascinating. And, later, De Gaulle's famous "Non!" to the UK.

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As you can see from this weekly chart there has been a retracement to the area around November 2009 lows 0f 74.50. If this bar had closed below that level, I wouldn't be posting this. But there was a strong close above it. It's not surprising that it has stalled a little here, maybe probing 74.30, before resuming this trend reversal.

It's also a strong weekly bar. A bullish, engulfing bar with a range of 222. The ATR is currently 128.

I will be watching closely, because fundamentals are confusing coming out of USA and Europe, and technicals are the only "truth" we have.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,070
  • Edited May 12, 2011 4:57am May 11, 2011 6:09am | Edited May 12, 2011 4:57am
Hi Smikester,

Glad you got some long positions in around the 6300 area also. The inflation report being over target today was pretty predictable which has only helped these positions. Good luck holding them.

I have taken profit on some of yesterdays longs at 6480 and moved the stop up on the remaining. We have breached strong 4hr resistance (6458-6468) with the momentum from this morning’s figures. We are approaching a VPOC from the 5th at 6492 and POC level at 6518 from the 4th. This area should stall price here and allow a 2nd bell distribution on todays profile to be formed and then complete a retracement of some sort at least down to the single prints on today’s profile at 5426 area. This area will also be a good place to load up further longs. It will be interesting to see if we get a 4 hr close above 6468.

If momentum remains behind this move we may not fill the single prints after forming a distribution around 1.65 instead break higher and form a triple distribution day on the profile. Either way banking some intraday profit around 1.65 is not a bad idea.

The attached chart shows further POC and VPOC areas above the 1.65 level which will come in useful to scalp and bank some profits on the way upto 1.67.

Stocky
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  • #1,071
  • May 11, 2011 9:57am May 11, 2011 9:57am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Smikester,

Glad you got some long positions in around the 6300 area also. The inflation report being over target today was pretty predictable which has only helped these positions. Good luck holding them.

[color=black][font=Verdana]I have taken profit on some of yesterdays longs at 6480 and moved the stop up on the remaining. We have breached strong 4hr resistance (6458-6468) with the momentum from this morning’s figures. We are approaching a VPOC from the...
Single prints down to 6427 almost filled. Nice scalp for intraday traders to sell of R3 6514 or slightly lower down after the break of R2 6486, TP being the last single print 6427. We should see a reversal back north taking place fairly soon either of 6427 area or 6410 area yesterdays profile high. However looking at todays profile the lower distribution looks incomplete (visible on previous post)so it would not be unreasonable for us to trade lower down to today POC 6369 and trade sideways for a while before heading higher through Asia or even tomorrows London Open. I will be scaling in further longs between 6427 and todays POC adjusting my stop as necessary.

Stocky
  • #1,072
  • May 11, 2011 4:25pm May 11, 2011 4:25pm
Quoting smikester
Just thought I'd post this USDX chart as I've got nothing else better to do. I'm reading "Day of the Jackal" at the moment and although the film was a brilliant adaptation, the book's outline of France's political turmoil of the time is fascinating. And, later, De Gaulle's famous "Non!" to the UK.

Attachment

As you can see from this weekly chart there has been a retracement to the area around November 2009 lows 0f 74.50....
Fred is good..also Cruz-Smith...
I like your posts
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #1,073
  • May 12, 2011 4:58am May 12, 2011 4:58am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Smikester,

Glad you got some long positions in around the 6300 area also. The inflation report being over target today was pretty predictable which has only helped these positions. Good luck holding them.

[color=black][font=Verdana]I have taken profit on some of yesterdays longs at 6480 and moved the stop up on the remaining. We have breached strong 4hr resistance (6458-6468) with the momentum from this morning’s figures. We are approaching a VPOC from the...
Glad I took profit on some of my long positions at 6500 yesterday. Was not expecting GU to drop hard as we did. Remaining Longs were stopped out for break even. Until we get a daily close below the daily PIN I still stick by my orginal analysis. I see this drop as a stop clearer for now and will be reloading longs around 6280/6300 upon the close of this next 4hr bar, providing we havent broken clearly through support. Im hoping it develops into another PIN but will have to see.

Stocky
  • #1,074
  • May 12, 2011 5:25am May 12, 2011 5:25am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Fred is good..also Cruz-Smith...
I like your posts
Thanks!
Gone to a better place
  • #1,075
  • May 12, 2011 6:03am May 12, 2011 6:03am
Looking from a weekly perspective and apologies if someone has already posted this, we are retesting last years highs. It's a break and retest. All that consolidation earlier this year was the effort to break and close above those highs.

So now we have a confluence of support (weekly, nay, yearly), trend line and a fib level.

I expect some strong support there. It's about 1.62. Those weekly candles - February 2011 through March 2011 are like a brick wall. If that goes then Sterling is for the knackers yard. What is a knackers yard?

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  • #1,076
  • May 17, 2011 3:27am May 17, 2011 3:27am
Quoting NoahEffect
Evening folks!

With all eyes on the JPY crosses tonight especially GBPJPY, the anniversary of last years flash crash, BoE blather, talk of the BoJs interest in the 80 handle, NFP and I notice a few key liquidity indicators are flashing red too.

Haven't managed to get a runner on the USDJPY just yet but no net losses recorded either. Happy to see 45Condor managed to grab some of the downside there.

Not sure if I will attempt to open new positions on the book tonight. May well just keep to managing open positions as a few of my dollar shorts on...
Looking like everything is making a move JPY wise. Did you get in?
Gone to a better place
  • #1,077
  • May 17, 2011 5:16am May 17, 2011 5:16am
Quoting smikester
Looking like everything is making a move JPY wise. Did you get in?
Hi everyone,

Haven't been posting much because I have been working on a few short-term trend independent trading setups and their testing has taken some of my time. Nothing new or fancy, just tacking a few well known concepts together so we can take advantage of volatility in stocks if there are fireworks post QE2.

Yep smikester, I managed to get in long on the first M5 (double) inside bar of the London open session on Friday night. A few other positions were accumulated but shaken out during Fridays NY session. No trading was undertaken in USDJPY on Monday.

That position is derisked, and holding 120 pip floating profit for the 10 pip risk it took to enter. Account risk on the trade was 0.5%. I am not banking on this being the bottom so if the position gets shaken out again I will try to re-establish a few more times.
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  • #1,078
  • May 18, 2011 2:58am May 18, 2011 2:58am
Longer term model showing some EUR support in action. I would be looking to place some sell stops tomorrow during Hong Kong hours with an eye to entering on a break lower. No stoploss in mind yet, I will probably wait for obvious resistance to build and use that.

On the monthly we have already formed an outside bar in EURUSD. I calculate 50% of the current monthly range as 1.4490, a monthly close below this level would give that bar a decidedly bearish tone. Obviously this number would change if we expand the current monthly range before it ends.

The potential exists in my mind that we are just experiencing a bout of USD short covering/profit taking so I won't be joining in and profit taking on positions from lower levels. Ideally just catching developing swing and then get out if it looks like we are going to bounce.

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  • #1,079
  • May 18, 2011 7:44am May 18, 2011 7:44am
Currently stick in Vietnam, and so not really posting much.

However, I'm watching cable retrace back onto a TL that I was running at the beginning of the year - link here is to post from the 1st of February:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post4362580

and attached chart is where we seem to be going at present on the weekly.

I'm saying longs in the short to medium term future/50 FE/ touch of the recently twisted north Guppy profile.

Erm... on the link it just so happens that I took a shot at DSK - how coincidental. Who says the forex market is not rigged, somehow, somewhere, by somebody...
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  • #1,080
  • May 18, 2011 7:57am May 18, 2011 7:57am
Quoting 45Condor

Erm... on the link it just so happens that I took a shot at DSK - how coincidental. Who says the forex market is not rigged, somehow, somewhere, by somebody...
What on earth does this mean?
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