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  • #901
  • May 10, 2011 6:26pm May 10, 2011 6:26pm
Quoting lasty
Yes trend is intact... I dont see it as vibrant as previously.. Consolidation at the moment... watch for fake outs.. range play IMO
Yeah AUD seems far more tentative overall compared to EUR anyway which i trade far more (unpatriotic yes i know...lol). It gets there, but slowly, stutteringly, eventually... EUR behaves with my fibs etc more willingly and smoothly with less volatility typically.

It will just remain to be seen if we get a reversal in the meantime or a pretty smooth upmove like the last one...
  • #902
  • May 10, 2011 6:40pm May 10, 2011 6:40pm
the current price is about a .618 retracement on the first plunge down... it is starting to breakdown target would be 1.025 (1.618)

i am short now @1.08485 with a stop @1.0847 (might get taken out, but it wont be a loss)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.PNG Size: 39 KB
  • #903
  • Edited 7:56pm May 10, 2011 6:48pm | Edited 7:56pm
1 and 4HR dictates longs for now, let's see where it closes in 10 min.
UPDATE: 1HR LONG and 4HR Long
  • #904
  • May 10, 2011 6:48pm May 10, 2011 6:48pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
the current price is about a .618 retracement on the first plunge down... it is starting to breakdown target would be 1.025 (1.618)

i am short now @1.08485 with a stop @1.0847 (might get taken out, but it wont be a loss)
Hmmm... I saw that but it has actually gone through that 61.8... Maybe its an overshoot but it made me think it either wasnt gonna stop or if it WAS gonna retrace it may be further up say at the 80.9 or a bit lower maybe... be careful :-)
  • #905
  • May 10, 2011 6:55pm May 10, 2011 6:55pm
yes, it did; i think it going to take a few days of sidways before any down direction... but just in case i had to jump in...locked in 1.5 pips so i wont be lossing anything... think it is going to hit 1.09 again.


Quoting Jazznos
Hmmm... I saw that but it has actually gone through that 61.8... Maybe its an overshoot but it made me think it either wasnt gonna stop or if it WAS gonna retrace it may be further up say at the 80.9 or a bit lower maybe... be careful :-)
  • #906
  • May 10, 2011 6:56pm May 10, 2011 6:56pm
yes, 4 more minutes... could get to 1.09 tonight.

Quoting pinoyboy
1 and 4HR dictates longs for now, let's see where it closes in 10 min.
  • #907
  • May 10, 2011 7:09pm May 10, 2011 7:09pm
Im long from 1.0841. SL 1.0811. TP - we'll see if it cracks 1.09. I find the 80.9 to be pretty reliable, which i have at 1.0921 region. See how she goes.
  • #908
  • May 10, 2011 8:36pm May 10, 2011 8:36pm
event to watch for:
China CPI.
If it is less than 5% - Aussie will rise.
If it is greater than expectation - then Aussie will fall as China will alert the whole world on more tighten policy.

Portfolio updates:
Still holding my two Aus Long @ 1.0478, 1.0718
Closed: Long Entry @ 1.0790 TP 1.0860. (70 pips)
  • #909
  • May 10, 2011 8:44pm May 10, 2011 8:44pm
Quoting pinoyboy
Trend and Fib
LONG 25 TP Complete, will look for Short opportunity during London session.
  • #910
  • May 10, 2011 9:01pm May 10, 2011 9:01pm
[quote=evelee8;4608547]event to watch for:
China CPI.
If it is less than 5% - Aussie will rise.
If it is greater than expectation - then Aussie will fall as China will alert the whole world on more tighten policy.


Yes I find this reasoning which the whole market is dealing on quite weird.
If CPI falling means demand lessening.. Bad for AUD
If CPI rising it means demands rising Good for AUD but bad if they raise rates... which is the same as lower CPI LOL
  • #911
  • May 10, 2011 9:22pm May 10, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting Jazznos
Im long from 1.0841. SL 1.0811. TP - we'll see if it cracks 1.09. I find the 80.9 to be pretty reliable, which i have at 1.0921 region. See how she goes.

Ive sold small on a real nothing but consolidational play with SL above 1.0930..
China numbers and Budget do nothing favourable for AUD..
1st sup 1.0840 next 1.0810 1.0770* My target ..

Cheers
  • #912
  • May 10, 2011 9:36pm May 10, 2011 9:36pm
so you think 1.077 is as low as it will go and then bounce back?
or do you think there will be considation and then go farther down?

Quoting lasty
Ive sold small on a real nothing but consolidational play with SL above 1.0930..
China numbers and Budget do nothing favourable for AUD..
1st sup 1.0840 next 1.0810 1.0770* My target ..

Cheers
  • #913
  • May 10, 2011 9:44pm May 10, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
so you think 1.077 is as low as it will go and then bounce back?
or do you think there will be considation and then go farther down?

I still think we are in a consolidation mode within an uptrend.. Only if we take out 1.0900/30 area convincingly will negate a possible head and shoulders formation on the downside.
I was aiming for 1.0880-00 area today on China numbers- sold off so jumped in @ 1.0850

Picking 1.0770 is achievable but shorting in an uptrend one has to respect it thats not to say its the base..
  • #914
  • May 10, 2011 10:03pm May 10, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting lasty
I was aiming for 1.0880-00 area today on China numbers- sold off so jumped in @ 1.0850
I used this dip as an opportunity to add to my long position. I'll sell some at 1.088-1.09; looks like there's 1H and 4H resistance there.

I agree with you on the uptrend. The trend is your friend.
  • #915
  • Edited 10:19pm May 10, 2011 10:05pm | Edited 10:19pm
i think you are right, i am now long @1.0849
now i am short again @1.08559

Quoting lasty
I still think we are in a consolidation mode within an uptrend.. Only if we take out 1.0900/30 area convincingly will negate a possible head and shoulders formation on the downside.
I was aiming for 1.0880-00 area today on China numbers- sold off so jumped in @ 1.0850

Picking 1.0770 is achievable but shorting in an uptrend one has to respect it thats not to say its the base..
  • #916
  • May 10, 2011 10:20pm May 10, 2011 10:20pm
Well im still in long from before. Price retested my entry after the news, but seems to be bouncing back... hopefully this holds... not a real lot of momentum though...
  • #917
  • May 10, 2011 10:28pm May 10, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i think you are right, i am now long @1.0849
now i am short again @1.08559
No.. Im a seller.. sorry for the confusing words... jumped in....

I think its one of those days where we can be both right and wrong ..
Happy Tradings
  • #918
  • May 10, 2011 10:32pm May 10, 2011 10:32pm
Well, while Jazznos was off milking the Euro cows, I spent the afternoon scalping them (or the evening, GMT) at 4 pips per trade. 21:00 and 22:00 GMT are the best hours. It gets really slow when the bankers are all sleeping.
With the US going into default by August 2nd, I think I will put on my rose-colored glasses and go long the AUD/USD once again. I can't wait to see the Audie hit $2.45! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #919
  • May 10, 2011 11:23pm May 10, 2011 11:23pm
Unless we see a break below 1.0830 i see a long with SL at 1.0830 & TP at the 161.8 at 1.0918
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #920
  • May 10, 2011 11:31pm May 10, 2011 11:31pm
Quoting jerrycollie
Well, while Jazznos was off milking the Euro cows, I spent the afternoon scalping them (or the evening, GMT) at 4 pips per trade. 21:00 and 22:00 GMT are the best hours. It gets really slow when the bankers are all sleeping.
With the US going into default by August 2nd, I think I will put on my rose-colored glasses and go long the AUD/USD once again. I can't wait to see the Audie hit $2.45! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
LOL... My milking did not go as well as hoped. Got less than half of what i could have, due to greed making me ignore all the signs to bail out when i should have... Ah well, another lesson learned...

Default already locked in huh? Well wont that be an exciting time for everyone! Well the least we can do is to try to profit obscenely from everyone elses misery huh?? Well Goldman Sachs seems happy to do it so why not us dammit? Well??! $2.45... well at least that could be good for the US economy with a lot of us Aussies having a mass holiday exodus over there maybe? Not sure how many other upsides there will be though! *shudder*
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