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Order Flow - Achieving the mindset

  • #1,601
  • May 10, 2011 1:18pm May 10, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
The market is a big world, how do you cut the shit and spend your time on the right factors?
Not even George Soros could. He had no idea that CDS existed before the crisis hit. CDS were one of the prime factors behind the collapse, yet very few were aware of their existence or importance. You could say he is an obsolete old man, but he obviously was not alone. Apparently not even AIG knew what they were selling.

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2009/12/...al-regulation/

Nobody has a crystal ball. But some can peek a little ahead.
  • #1,602
  • May 10, 2011 1:34pm May 10, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Why am I such an idiot as to not have worked all this out by now?
I feel ya there. I have read and reread that latest post by trizzle and nothing is really clicking, no light bulb coming on. I'm reading a shitload of crap lately suggested by folks here, and no light bulbs are going off over my head.

I feel like maybe im overloaded and having a hard time seeing the trees for the forest. I plan on spending the 4 weeks between may and june 15th in as much solitary confinement as possible. It's time to reflect again on who I am and what I believe, and find out what parts of those to things are holding me back and what I need to do to readjust my trajectory.
  • #1,603
  • May 10, 2011 1:42pm May 10, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
I feel ya there. I have read and reread that latest post by trizzle and nothing is really clicking, no light bulb coming on. I'm reading a shitload of crap lately suggested by folks here, and no light bulbs are going off over my head.
I don't think light bulbs will light from reading the forum. It will however when you spend the time doing homework and reading the actual market. And then you'll be surprised how you hadn't seen it before even though it was said many times on the forum.
  • #1,604
  • May 10, 2011 1:45pm May 10, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
I feel ya there. I have read and reread that latest post by trizzle and nothing is really clicking, no light bulb coming on. I'm reading a shitload of crap lately suggested by folks here, and no light bulbs are going off over my head.

I feel like maybe im overloaded and having a hard time seeing the trees for the forest. I plan on spending the 4 weeks between may and june 15th in as much solitary confinement as possible. It's time to reflect again on who I am and what I believe, and find out what parts of those to things are holding me back and...

You all do not be too hard on yourselves - seriously. Do not get bummed out because you don't feel like you have enough insight. The only one you have to compete with is yourself. tifwiw

IMO, if the stuff your reading is not clicking then you will have to find the stuff that does. The information suggested here suited the individuals that gave it to you. Your styles may be different. There are alot of ways to approach the markets. Ultimately you have to trust yourself.
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #1,605
  • May 10, 2011 1:48pm May 10, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting Jimmy Jones
I feel ya there. I have read and reread that latest post by trizzle and nothing is really clicking, no light bulb coming on. I'm reading a shitload of crap lately suggested by folks here, and no light bulbs are going off over my head.

I feel like maybe im overloaded and having a hard time seeing the trees for the forest. I plan on spending the 4 weeks between may and june 15th in as much solitary confinement as possible. It's time to reflect again on who I am and what I believe, and find out what parts of those to things are holding me back and...
Yeah, I get exactly what he's saying but the annoying part is in the details... How does one gauge expectations? How do you consolidate events that actually matter (there are many, daily)? How do you consolidate what currently happening in the market THAT MATTERS....?

The whole information side of things completely brings me to a dead end. I've got bloom-berg, Reuters, forex live, WSJ, etc etc. But there's just not enough hours in a day to analyze them all and sort the wheat from the chaff. Something is seriously stopping me somewhere and I haven't yet identified exactly what that is. I've many little aha moments but then I get stuck on the same issues... In all this information wtf should I be looking at, should I understand the dynamics of the commodities market> How much? Equities? US equities rallied hard on Tuesday but the USD did anything but rally.... What does this mean?? Does it matter?

So many little questions and cross roads... One wrong turn could mean months of wasted time and effort into the wrong thing... On top of that I'm reading 3 different books at the same time and at the end of the day I end up doing a lot of a whole bunch of nothing.
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,606
  • May 10, 2011 1:56pm May 10, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting CindyXXXX

Where is the book that explains how all these different markets (bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, derivatives) fit together and function? If this is so obvious then where is the beginners book?
I haven't read it myself yet but it's on the list.

http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Tradi.../dp/0470226234

Regarding all other questions I think the answer is experience.
  • #1,607
  • May 10, 2011 1:59pm May 10, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Yeah, I get exactly what he's saying but the annoying part is in the details... How does one gauge expectations? How do you consolidate events that actually matter (there are many, daily)? How do you consolidate what currently happening in the market THAT MATTERS....?

The whole information side of things completely brings me to a dead end. I've got bloom-berg, Reuters, forex live, WSJ, etc etc. But there's just not enough hours in a day to analyze them all and sort the wheat from the chaff. Something is seriously stopping me somewhere and I haven't...

Just looking in from the outside I think you sound alittle overwhelmed. IMO, you won't make any significant breakthroughs being too overwhlemed. You'll miss simple easy stuff you already know.
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #1,608
  • May 10, 2011 2:00pm May 10, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting CindyXXXX

The whole information side of things completely brings me to a dead end. I've got bloom-berg, Reuters, forex live, WSJ, etc etc.
It's all up to personal preference. The best way is start with one source that you like and then add/switch depending on your progress. Otherwise you'll be overloaded with information and lost. I personally like forexlive, they pretty much focus on what's driving the markets now.
  • #1,609
  • May 10, 2011 2:02pm May 10, 2011 2:02pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
The market is a big world, how do you cut the shit and spend your time on the right factors?
Very good list of questions, of which I rate the one above the highest.

To me this is the key to successful trading, i.e. to consciously choose how external stimuli are first experienced and then internally represented.

So not "trade what you see" or "stick to your rules" but training yourself to think, see and act in an integrated manner, which can only be done by letting the market teach you, by truly listening. So it requires a good measure of self-awareness and perceptiveness.
  • #1,610
  • May 10, 2011 2:23pm May 10, 2011 2:23pm
I appreciate the feedback... Thanks eveyone
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,611
  • May 10, 2011 2:27pm May 10, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting seagreen
I haven't read it myself yet but it's on the list.

http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Tradi.../dp/0470226234

Regarding all other questions I think the answer is experience.
A very good read...it will still take a third reading, and probably fourth
  • #1,612
  • May 10, 2011 2:42pm May 10, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting medici
To me this is the key to successful trading, i.e. to consciously choose how external stimuli are first experienced and then internally represented.
So not "trade what you see" or "stick to your rules" but training yourself to think, see and act in an integrated manner, which can only be done by letting the market teach you, by truly listening. So it requires a good measure of self-awareness and perceptiveness.
This to me is a very deep post for such few words, thanks Medici
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,613
  • May 10, 2011 2:50pm May 10, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Yeah, I get exactly what he's saying but the annoying part is in the details... How does one gauge expectations? How do you consolidate events that actually matter (there are many, daily)? How do you consolidate what currently happening in the market THAT MATTERS....?

The whole information side of things completely brings me to a dead end. I've got bloom-berg, Reuters, forex live, WSJ, etc etc. But there's just not enough hours in a day to analyze them all and sort the wheat from the chaff. Something is seriously stopping me somewhere and I haven't...
You may want to just concentrate on one pair only. As far as I remember DS used to trade UJ only at one time. I have been following only GU for the last couple of months. Right now, it's kind of in a lull, in anticipation of the news events tomorrow. Expect to see some solid moves soon....
  • #1,614
  • Edited 4:26pm May 10, 2011 3:51pm | Edited 4:26pm
Quoting pillager
You may want to just concentrate on one pair only. As far as I remember DS used to trade UJ only at one time. I have been following only GU for the last couple of months. Right now, it's kind of in a lull, in anticipation of the news events tomorrow. Expect to see some solid moves soon....
Probably not such a bad idea, good suggestion

BTW seagreen thanks for the link... I have quite a library going now.
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,615
  • May 10, 2011 4:49pm May 10, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting seagreen
I don't think light bulbs will light from reading the forum. It will however when you spend the time doing homework and reading the actual market. And then you'll be surprised how you hadn't seen it before even though it was said many times on the forum.
No offense, but I have been doing homework, I have not just been reading the forum! But as said, the info is not the problem. Info overload is.
  • #1,616
  • Edited 5:50pm May 10, 2011 5:35pm | Edited 5:50pm
CindyXXXX - Don't just use one source... Before anything, read up on bloomberg.com and reuters.com there you'll find what the market is focusing on, whats the story in play etc, whats going on across markets...

Then read IFR and forexlive briefings and 1 or 2 bank reports (UBS and Bank of NY Mellon are what I use)... but remember just take the facts and don't let there opinions get in the way.

Get your levels where the orderflow is, this can be found on the chart, not just stop levels... and rumors can help also but aren't needed.

Then you watch the wires throughout the session (oanda's DJ and ransquawk is what I use) and watch how the market reacts to the new info and watch out for any new events that are ahead and whats expected.

Do this for awhile and I think you'll begin to get something working for yourself quite nicely. Most important for me is to find the directional bias from info off the chart first, get the sentiment, what people are expecting from the same shit I'm reading... then I like to let the market pull away from the outcome I anticipate... Just keep watching it.

edit: a lot of times stuff hits the wires and you just go with it... like the Greece rumor last friday, it was golden...
  • #1,617
  • May 10, 2011 5:53pm May 10, 2011 5:53pm
Quoting Monroe
CindyXXXX - Don't just use one source... Before anything, read up on bloomberg.com and reuters.com there you'll find what the market is focusing on, whats the story in play etc, whats going on across markets...

Then read IFR and forexlive briefings and 1 or 2 bank reports (UBS and Bank of NY Mellon are what I use)... but remember just take the facts and don't let there opinions get in the way.

Get your levels where the orderflow is, this can be found on the chart, not just stop levels... and rumors can help also but aren't needed.

Then you watch...
Speaking of IFR, I'm currently getting a free feed off DBFX's bi-monthly demo account. Very useful. Unfortunately DBFX will be closing down and selling up at the end of this week, so no more free feed. Does anyone know where we can alternate access to IFR?

Thank you.
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #1,618
  • May 10, 2011 5:54pm May 10, 2011 5:54pm
Quoting chngster
Speaking of IFR, I'm currently getting a free feed off DBFX's bi-monthly demo account. Very useful. Unfortunately DBFX will be closing down and selling up at the end of this week, so no more free feed. Does anyone know where we can alternate access to IFR?

Thank you.

oanda fxnews feed... open a demo account... plus you get 4cast and the DJ newsire... good stuff for free...
  • #1,619
  • May 10, 2011 7:33pm May 10, 2011 7:33pm
If one is so fortunate in there orderflow studies journey to figure or find out where the major orders are located then you have no choice but to follow in the footsteps of liquidity. There is no longer any I think price is going here or there because there is no crystal ball that anyone holds even though one sees it all over the forums. When you know where the orders are you have to only learn the thinking of the crowd of traders as Trizzle xx is referring to. You have to be constantly working scenerios out in your head if the economic news release has positive numbers or negative numbers what will the participants reaction be. Why did the market stop dropping eur/usd on 5/9/11. Is there a major player buying there why? Are the techies trend line the reason it stopped highly unlikely. As far as today do you know where the market will most likely turn without predicting (no crystal ball) and do you know why. Why would there be selling there? How is the news of the greek problem fit in. What will happen if they do get bailed out again or if they leave the union or if they restructure the debt? How will the majority of the traders react. I know soo many senerios but based on the main news at the time. Long story short-GRKFX says it better than I and his exercises are golden. When you do this you will understand when to get out for a small loss or profit or a good profit based on where the orders are and why they are where they are. I know clear as mud.
  • #1,620
  • May 10, 2011 7:54pm May 10, 2011 7:54pm
Well said, Louie.
grkfx and Darkstar are great mentors.
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