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  • #881
  • May 10, 2011 12:31am May 10, 2011 12:31am
Quoting Jade Gate
That one is in the New Port Adelaide development. I'm at the other end on the beach. Truckloads of Esplanade/off Esplanade properties on the market here, absolutely zero takers.

And yes, I agree, the property market has succeeded in pricing itself out of reach of the average Aussie.... and we all know where Labor's voter base is don't we?
Ah ok.. Im in Melb... I hear auction clearances are dropping off and median prices falling too... Hope it continues! The next election cant come fast enough... unless the independents decide this government has "lost its way too" sooner than that!

Meanwhile... havent gone short as yet on this sucker but its tempting. +65 in EUR though which is nice!
  • #882
  • May 10, 2011 12:52am May 10, 2011 12:52am
Quoting Jazznos
Ah ok.. Im in Melb... I hear auction clearances are dropping off and median prices falling too... Hope it continues! The next election cant come fast enough... unless the independents decide this government has "lost its way too" sooner than that!

Meanwhile... havent gone short as yet on this sucker but its tempting. +65 in EUR though which is nice!
1.0740 support then 1.0700.. still looking heavy but its a long way from a decent res s/l
  • #883
  • May 10, 2011 1:12am May 10, 2011 1:12am
Quoting lasty
1.0740 support then 1.0700.. still looking heavy but its a long way from a decent res s/l
Are you in? I might leave it... Just not giving me good vibes really. If i had gotten in earlier when i posted i would be ahead but still didnt feel right about it then... Just got to focus on milking this EUR one now ;-)
  • #884
  • May 10, 2011 1:15am May 10, 2011 1:15am
Quoting Jazznos
Are you in? I might leave it... Just not giving me good vibes really. If i had gotten in earlier when i posted i would be ahead but still didnt feel right about it then... Just got to focus on milking this EUR one now ;-)
yeah got in @1.0770 when gave you the heads up.. I bght back at 1.0740 .. Its not a market to hold for much..
  • #885
  • May 10, 2011 1:26am May 10, 2011 1:26am
standing in the middle now.

Aus is a splendid country.
If you are not working - you will not get nothing since government will still feed you.

Updates:
Aussie look strongly bearish and extremely oversold in 1-hour time frame.
Doji pattern was identified in the graph.
  • #886
  • May 10, 2011 1:52am May 10, 2011 1:52am
Quoting evelee8
standing in the middle now.

Aus is a splendid country.
If you are not working - you will not get nothing since government will still feed you.

Updates:
Aussie look strongly bearish and extremely oversold in 1-hour time frame.
Doji pattern was identified in the graph.

haha .. Give me those Singapore tax rates anyday..

Market held 1.0740 1.0810 shud cap but budget night..
History suggests.. every lie the government tells us its worth 10 pips.. so sell into rally.. AS usual there wont be any goodies for me in the budget infact they normally take them away so dont feel guilty punishing the govt.. enjoy
  • #887
  • May 10, 2011 2:40am May 10, 2011 2:40am
Nice 50 pips in the last hour.

What's everyone's opinion on how the budget speech is going to affect the Aussie?
Everyone knows more or less whats in it including a 20+ billion deficit, so I guess more borrowing more bulls?
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #888
  • May 10, 2011 4:10am May 10, 2011 4:10am
event to watch - budget speech due on 5:30.

Aus climbing up to 1.0798 now - on the higher commodity and oil prices and the forecast-ed new bail-out planning for Greece after they have rejected the early one.
  • #889
  • May 10, 2011 10:40am May 10, 2011 10:40am
Got long 1 lot @ 1.0700. Targeting new high @ 1.1100. Stop @ 1.0480. Will add another lot if we dip towards 0550 and it holds. We'll see where she goes... all dip buying has been rewarded since last fall. Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #890
  • May 10, 2011 1:08pm May 10, 2011 1:08pm
FX-Petra, I hopped back in on the long side of AUDUSD this week. I built a core position and am now buying on small dips and selling in the 10-20 pip range. After making several trades for small gains, I add a little bit to my core position on dips.
This is obviously not everyone's style but it works for me.

On a side note, I've been amazed at how resiliant silver prices have been with all of the margin increases. And now oil has a big margin increase, yet it is up at the moment.
With the opening of the Hong Kong gold and silver commodity exchange, I think that the CME is going to lose some business. I also anticipate Hong Kong to offer a full range of commodities.
  • #891
  • May 10, 2011 2:00pm May 10, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
FX-Petra, I hopped back in on the long side of AUDUSD this week. I built a core position and am now buying on small dips and selling in the 10-20 pip range. After making several trades for small gains, I add a little bit to my core position on dips.
This is obviously not everyone's style but it works for me.

On a side note, I've been amazed at how resiliant silver prices have been with all of the margin increases. And now oil has a big margin increase, yet it is up at the moment.
With the opening of the Hong Kong gold and silver commodity exchange,...
And I don't think we have seen the last of margin increases in oil. High oil prices are a killer for US incumbents for 2012, Mr. Obama included. If oil shoots up past $150 a barrel, you can bet it is because US policy makers cannot stop it. Now, after the election, that is a diffrent story as runaway oil brings the altrenative fuels agenda back to the forefront.

Regards,
  • #892
  • May 10, 2011 2:45pm May 10, 2011 2:45pm
Nice Rally Up for past 1-2 hours, but should be capped within Asia session ... watching 'commodity' futures for next move.
  • #893
  • May 10, 2011 4:41pm May 10, 2011 4:41pm
raising margins will not stop the big players only the little (which is really good to put middle class traders out of work - how stupid!) oil, gold, and gasoline will keep rising because the US has no solution with 43% deficit spending, printing money like newspapers, and no plan for energy independence. outside of a complete 180 in policy, i can only see the US getting worse. Obama and Bush should co-author a book: "How we destroyed America in 12 short years"


Quoting FX-Petra
And I don't think we have seen the last of margin increases in oil. High oil prices are a killer for US incumbents for 2012, Mr. Obama included. If oil shoots up past $150 a barrel, you can bet it is because US policy makers cannot stop it. Now, after the election, that is a diffrent story as runaway oil brings the altrenative fuels agenda back to the forefront.

Regards,
  • #894
  • May 10, 2011 5:10pm May 10, 2011 5:10pm
Ok here is my take on the Budget.. ITS CRAP..
$50 Billion budget deficit - No tough cuts- Inflation to take hold- Too much reliance on China- Labor Govt are kidding themselves about a magical surplus in 2012.

In usual circumstances the AUD would have been sold off however market looks at global position and says Australia is the best of a bad bunch.

Now for today.. Market has been squeezed out of there shorts on the break of 1.0810 and we now consolidate at 30pips higher.. near next resistance of 1.0850.. more resistance at 1.0880 and 1.0900
support near 1.0810 1.0770 1.0740..

Still feel we are in consolidation mode and would be a comfortable seller into the rally nearer 1.0880-00 with sl 1.0930

enjoy
  • #895
  • May 10, 2011 5:46pm May 10, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting lasty
Ok here is my take on the Budget.. ITS CRAP..
$50 Billion budget deficit - No tough cuts- Inflation to take hold- Too much reliance on China- Labor Govt are kidding themselves about a magical surplus in 2012.

In usual circumstances the AUD would have been sold off however market looks at global position and says Australia is the best of a bad bunch.

Now for today.. Market has been squeezed out of there shorts on the break of 1.0810 and we now consolidate at 30pips higher.. near next resistance of 1.0850.. more resistance at 1.0880 and 1.0900
support...
He he I did not even bother watching the puppet show. Politician don't know what the the word budget means, that is why they are Politicans, talking BS the whole day and getting paid by the tax payer for wasting time. I agree with you, the AUD will be supported with the ongoing mining boom.

Cheers
  • #896
  • May 10, 2011 6:11pm May 10, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting lasty
.. Market has been squeezed out of there shorts on the break of 1.0810 and we now consolidate at 30pips higher.. near next resistance of 1.0850.. more resistance at 1.0880 and 1.0900
support near 1.0810 1.0770 1.0740..

Still feel we are in consolidation mode and would be a comfortable seller into the rally nearer 1.0880-00 with sl 1.0930...
Morning all,

Glad i stayed out of shorting yesterday, I feel my read on it was vindicated which is always encouraging! (im not scalping so...) Still looking rather bullish isnt it... Lasty i have different levels to you presumably due to my different fibs...

Taking a very long term view, fibbiing this entire upmove over the past couple of months we can see price retraced almost to the 61.8 (orange fib) on May 5th which coincided with another recent S/R line (blue dashed). If this continues to the expected target line of 134% were looking at 1.1455. Some "analysts" in the news have said things like 1.20, 1.30... and we know how good their crystal balls are but its not impossible.

Now all I have to figure out is when a good time to enter is! Waiting for a dip i guess...

Otherwise i have resistance marked at 1.0883, next 80.9 fib at 1.092, and then we'll see if she can crack 1.10 again, and then we might see some serious sh1t

*Hopefully this doesent all sound like nonsensical crap... I can only go by what my fibs, S/R & PA tell me :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-11-5-11.PNG Size: 47 KB
  • #897
  • May 10, 2011 6:15pm May 10, 2011 6:15pm
Quoting lasty
Ok here is my take on the Budget.. ITS CRAP..
$50 Billion budget deficit - No tough cuts- Inflation to take hold- Too much reliance on China- Labor Govt are kidding themselves about a magical surplus in 2012.

In usual circumstances the AUD would have been sold off however market looks at global position and says Australia is the best of a bad bunch.
The Aussie dollar is the leper with the most fingers. You want to see a train wreck? Look at the US budget. US budget - now there's an oxymoron.
  • #898
  • May 10, 2011 6:18pm May 10, 2011 6:18pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
The Aussie dollar is the leper with the most fingers. You want to see a train wreck? Look at the US budget. US budget - now there's an oxymoron.
HAHA .. great analysis
  • #899
  • May 10, 2011 6:19pm May 10, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting lasty
HAHA .. great analysis
Yes... you gotta laugh or slit your wrists...
  • #900
  • May 10, 2011 6:22pm May 10, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting Jazznos
Morning all,

Glad i stayed out of shorting yesterday, I feel my read on it was vindicated which is always encouraging! (im not scalping so...) Still looking rather bullish isnt it... Lasty i have different levels to you presumably due to my different fibs...

Taking a very long term view, fibbiing this entire upmove over the past couple of months we can see price retraced almost to the 61.8 (orange fib) on May 5th which coincided with another recent S/R line (blue dashed). If this continues to the expected target line of 134% were looking at...

Yes trend is intact... I dont see it as vibrant as previously.. Consolidation at the moment... watch for fake outs.. range play IMO
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