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  • #861
  • May 9, 2011 7:19pm May 9, 2011 7:19pm
Could we be at the C point of this ABCD move? Price has sitting around the 61.8 of 2nd last major downmove (orange fib) which has confluence with a 61.8 of most recent downmove as well as an S/R line (orange dashed). Price is showing some bearish momentum now... Rate news coming soon... Lets see if it continues.
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  • #862
  • May 9, 2011 7:32pm May 9, 2011 7:32pm
I am a bit concerned that this 1.08 ish level does not seem to have major S/R around it aside from that being a psych round number level... and it may not be enough to turn it around... Any other thoughts? Lasty? Im staying out unless theres a bit more confirmation...
  • #863
  • May 9, 2011 7:47pm May 9, 2011 7:47pm
Some charts - note we have a double bottom on GBP/AUD. EUR/AUD has a habit of taking out stops then making a major romp in the opposite direction. Not sure whether AU will follow through with short but in it for moment.

AU has some potentially negative data coming up - trade balance, AU federal budget tomorrow (being cast as a nasty one, cutbacks etc) and CNY CPI data etc.
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  • #864
  • May 9, 2011 7:59pm May 9, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting Jazznos
I am a bit concerned that this 1.08 ish level does not seem to have major S/R around it aside from that being a psych round number level... and it may not be enough to turn it around... Any other thoughts? Lasty? Im staying out unless theres a bit more confirmation...
Hi Jazznos,

Yup the level I feel is 1.0840-50 is more a significant resistance.
Support now comes in at 1.0735..
Trade data and Budget..
Mkt consolidating and many are getting whipped on fakes..
Dont be a victim.. paitence makes profits..
  • #865
  • May 9, 2011 8:05pm May 9, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting lasty
Hi Jazznos,

Yup the level I feel is 1.0840-50 is more a significant resistance....
Dont be a victim.. paitence makes profits..
Cheers mate... I havent got heaps on my chart at that level either, what are you seeing? We have todays R1 and i have a 61.8 around there, and going back we did have a bit of a temporary high on the 27th... am i missing anything?

Yes patience... I sometimes struggle to balance that with seeing entries and the principle of taking all my edges. Taking these kinds of retracement trades leaves me a small window to get in close to the bounce, so the pressure can be strong.. Just got to make the best analysis you can i guess and go for it when the stars align...

Meanwhile am in short on EUR/USD on the same kind of trade, going right so far...
  • #866
  • May 9, 2011 8:36pm May 9, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting Jazznos
Cheers mate... I havent got heaps on my chart at that level either, what are you seeing? We have todays R1 and i have a 61.8 around there, and going back we did have a bit of a temporary high on the 27th... am i missing anything?

Yes patience... I sometimes struggle to balance that with seeing entries and the principle of taking all my edges. Taking these kinds of retracement trades leaves me a small window to get in close to the bounce, so the pressure can be strong.. Just got to make the best analysis you can i guess and go for it when the stars...

Good trade number on the AUD.. 1.7 Bio expecting 0.4
China numbers to come today...

Even the charts supp and resis points are murky.. so expect more overshoots than normal...
Let the market come to you and dont chase it ..if you have to play..
  • #867
  • May 9, 2011 8:42pm May 9, 2011 8:42pm
As someone else remarked, AU has a two-tiered economy - the resources sector and then everything else. The latter of these two is not in good shape at all, but while the resources sector continues skewing the data, the reality check position on the ground isn't going to make much impact.
  • #868
  • May 9, 2011 8:49pm May 9, 2011 8:49pm
Quoting Jade Gate
As someone else remarked, AU has a two-tiered economy - the resources sector and then everything else. The latter of these two is not in good shape at all, but while the resources sector continues skewing the data, the reality check position on the ground isn't going to make much impact.

Correct.. unfortunately the RBA views us all as one.. Any rate rise will see many at the tipping point.
Bank economists are touting for rate rises.. But do we believe them?
These are the same "clowns" who failed many a correct forecast and are really only mouth pieces of their employer (bank) spruiking rather than true believers of their convictions.
  • #869
  • May 9, 2011 8:57pm May 9, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting lasty
Correct.. unfortunately the RBA views us all as one.. Any rate rise will see many at the tipping point.
Bank economists are touting for rate rises.. But do we believe them?
These are the same "clowns" who failed many a correct forecast and are really only mouth pieces of their employer (bank) spruiking rather than true believers of their convictions.
With the property market busy heading south as it is, I somehow doubt the banks will support a rate hike - you can see the competition atmosphere that is developing already. There is a glut of property on the market, prices are dropping by up to 50% in some areas, (4.8% average) people are in mortgage distress and moving back into rentals.

A rate hike would be political suicide, and Swannie knows it.
  • #870
  • May 9, 2011 9:10pm May 9, 2011 9:10pm
i have never worked in a food industry; however, friends of mine have. a nice place to eat (15-30 dollars a meal) the waiters receive about 20 bucks an hour because of the tips... they get paid about 2-4 dollars an hour but with the tips, they average 20 bucks an hour.


Quoting lasty
Going to the USA even with 15-20% tip its still cheaper than in Sydney.
I feel for the lower income worker on that sort of wage relying on a tip to get by though.. disgusting..
  • #871
  • May 9, 2011 9:31pm May 9, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting Jade Gate
With the property market busy heading south as it is, I somehow doubt the banks will support a rate hike - you can see the competition atmosphere that is developing already. There is a glut of property on the market, prices are dropping by up to 50% in some areas, (4.8% average) people are in mortgage distress and moving back into rentals.

A rate hike would be political suicide, and Swannie knows it.
Yes but are the RBA really concerned over this govt ?
RBA warned Labor of over stimulation wud lead to inflation- They didnt listen.
I see that the RBA will need to tread a fine line.
It would rather have blood on Labors hands than theirs..
  • #872
  • May 9, 2011 10:07pm May 9, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting lasty
Yes but are the RBA really concerned over this govt ?
RBA warned Labor of over stimulation wud lead to inflation- They didnt listen.
I see that the RBA will need to tread a fine line.
It would rather have blood on Labors hands than theirs..
The RBA will do whatever Swan tells them to do. It isn't about the Australian economy, it's about Australian voters.

On the other hand, the US in particular has a huge pair of Elton John size rose-coloured glasses on re AU (not dissimilar to the pair they wear for Ben and Tim and the US stock market, bit like 9/11 they just can't see it coming even though everyone else can..... *no offence to my many wonderful US friends, most of whom can in fact see the writing on the wall re the wreckless path the US has taken under the guise of Keynesian economics*.)
  • #873
  • May 9, 2011 10:15pm May 9, 2011 10:15pm
erm..
But citi bank chief still suggested Aus will have two rake hike this year.
This is a fierce move.

The fact is NAB do not see a brighter forecast as the other see..
Well - everyone has its own biased opinion and view..
and still have the unknown in the market which we couldn't anticipate.

=> My 100-th post. =P
Updates: China trade balance and Aus Trade Balance show +ve data.
  • #874
  • May 9, 2011 10:43pm May 9, 2011 10:43pm
This government's incompetence seems to know no bounds... But I know were not to discuss politics here

Let me know where the prices have dropped 50%!!! Sounds good... Were considering a move to the country as it is... I can trade while my wife milks the cows... lol
  • #875
  • May 9, 2011 10:47pm May 9, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting Jade Gate
The RBA will do whatever Swan tells them to do. It isn't about the Australian economy, it's about Australian voters.

On the other hand, the US in particular has a huge pair of Elton John size rose-coloured glasses on re AU (not dissimilar to the pair they wear for Ben and Tim and the US stock market, bit like 9/11 they just can't see it coming even though everyone else can..... *no offence to my many wonderful US friends, most of whom can in fact see the writing on the wall re the wreckless path the US has taken under the guise of Keynesian economics*.)...
Do you think the RBA is going to listen to someone who sells Set Top Boxes @ $400 to the Australian Taxpayer when they can be had on ebay at 10th of the price.. No one is going to save Swan including our dear friends at the RBA.
  • #876
  • May 9, 2011 11:09pm May 9, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting Jazznos
This government's incompetence seems to know no bounds... But I know were not to discuss politics here

Let me know where the prices have dropped 50%!!! Sounds good... Were considering a move to the country as it is... I can trade while my wife milks the cows... lol

AUD looks vulnerable after two pieces of good econ data.
selling at 1.0770 wud leave a sl @ 1.0860 to be safe..
USD getting some support again..
  • #877
  • May 10, 2011 12:02am May 10, 2011 12:02am
Quoting Jazznos
This government's incompetence seems to know no bounds... But I know were not to discuss politics here

Let me know where the prices have dropped 50%!!! Sounds good... Were considering a move to the country as it is... I can trade while my wife milks the cows... lol
It's not where you might expect. One example - new waterfront apartments that were selling for $690k are now selling (3 months later) for $350k.

I've also noticed that the new home builders appear to be having a fire sale of their display home stock, (at least in my part of the woods)... e.g. new house/land display homes that were selling for around $350k are now going for $259K. The "price reduced" and "new lower price" tags on other real estate seems to be growing daily. Property market here is certainly overdue for a major correction, prices have been so ridiculously pumped the last 3 years.
  • #878
  • May 10, 2011 12:05am May 10, 2011 12:05am
Quoting lasty
Do you think the RBA is going to listen to someone who sells Set Top Boxes @ $400 to the Australian Taxpayer when they can be had on ebay at 10th of the price.. No one is going to save Swan including our dear friends at the RBA.
I agree. I think this govt is already cactus. Gillard won't see another term. Robbin Rudd did a splendid job of plundering the coffers to buy votes. Now the cupboard is bare (Labor is saying prayers for a carbon tax rescue *oh look, flying pigs*).
  • #879
  • May 10, 2011 12:09am May 10, 2011 12:09am
Quoting Jade Gate
It's not where you might expect....
Whereabouts is your neck of the woods, if you dont mind saying (roughly)? Things surely have to come down, they are simply unaffordable. I hear different things all over the place though. One minute you hear demand exceeds supply. The next minute you read thats apparently bullsh!t. Im not quite sure what the reality is... but when the price is 8-10 times the average wage when in the olden days it used to be more like 3 or 4 x... somethings gotta give sooner or later...
  • #880
  • May 10, 2011 12:18am May 10, 2011 12:18am
Quoting Jazznos
Whereabouts is your neck of the woods, if you dont mind saying (roughly)? Things surely have to come down, they are simply unaffordable. I hear different things all over the place though. One minute you hear demand exceeds supply. The next minute you read thats apparently bullsh!t. Im not quite sure what the reality is... but when the price is 8-10 times the average wage when in the olden days it used to be more like 3 or 4 x... somethings gotta give sooner or later...
That one is in the New Port Adelaide development. I'm at the other end on the beach. Truckloads of Esplanade/off Esplanade properties on the market here, absolutely zero takers.

And yes, I agree, the property market has succeeded in pricing itself out of reach of the average Aussie.... and we all know where Labor's voter base is don't we?
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