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The Recent Only Real Deal in My Head

  • Post #21
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  • Edited Jun 12, 2014 1:25pm May 8, 2011 1:27am | Edited Jun 12, 2014 1:25pm
Here is a First Strike calculator I put together a several years ago.
The perimeters are set slightly different but still very close and there is some trade size calculators built into it.
.
In cell B16 you can enter your account balance... It will copy to the rest of the cells down line.
Quoting dzhini
I found one bug in EA. Download this one, please. If you found weekly TF in tester than ok. Try it.
Thank U for the EA dzhini.....I will try to test it....
The Markets just don't care what U believe...
Quoting tradestar1
Here is a First Strike calculator I put together a several years ago.
The perimeters are set slightly different but still very close and there is some trade size calculators built into it.
Thank U tradestar1.....it will be very usefull share.....
The Markets just don't care what U believe...
Could you explain how to use ENTRY SIZE BY ATR & ENTRY SIZE BY STOP LOSS

Quoting tradestar1
Here is a First Strike calculator I put together a several years ago.
The perimeters are set slightly different but still very close and there is some trade size calculators built into it.
.
In cell B16 you can enter your account balance... It will copy to the rest of the cells down line.
Quoting dzhini
Could you explain how to use ENTRY SIZE BY ATR & ENTRY SIZE BY STOP LOSS
Entry size by ATR is volatility based on the Average True Range, the size is in units which is based on the Oanda platform.

the entry size by stop loss is also volatility based on the size of the SL

1,000 units is equivalent to a micro lot.
10,000 units is equivalent to a mini lot.
100,000 units is equivalent to a full lot.

nice thing about Oanda is the flexible entry size, really allows you to fine tune your Money Management.

obviously if you can only trade in micro, mini, or full lots your going to have to round out the order size.

hope this helped.
Quoting RoelsMajor
[b]
First Strike Pluz

Thanks for posting this. I have been playing around with something similar on H1 charts for the past few weeks, looking to add a short-term strategy to my trading. This gave me a few ideas about what I'd been missing. I took the rules as posted, stepped down to H1, added a few tweaks to only trade with the trend and some money management that suits my trading style.

A quick backtest in tradestation looks like there may be some potential here on several pairs. I would only trade this manually to add some discretion (like avoiding trading directly in to support/resistance or staying out before major news), but so far, I think there is potential for this to be a winner.

Thanks for sharing!
One thing you might give some thought to is instead of setting a long and short orders, just set the order that is in the direction of the trend...

if the trend is up, set the buy order.... if the trend is down, just set the sell order

It will reduce your exposure and improve your edge.
Quoting tradestar1
One thing you might give some thought to is instead of setting a long and short orders, just set the order that is in the direction of the trend...

if the trend is up, set the buy order.... if the trend is down, just set the sell order

It will reduce your exposure and improve your edge.
For trend identifying S.Hopwood like to use RSI (H1). Can you recommend any other instrument except trendline
Quoting cgrey
Thanks for posting this....
do you mean 1hr -- and do the math for daily high and low(high minus low) for the 24hrs period or do you mean high minus low on a 1hr
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
Quoting zamanib
do you mean 1hr -- and do the math for daily high and low(high minus low) for the 24hrs period or do you mean high minus low on a 1hr
Yes, 1-hour, calculating based on the previous 1-hour candle, but.... as I said, with some discretion, as well as being selective with the hours traded depending on the pair. The concept is a good one, but would need filters and discretion, and should probably only be traded with the trend on a shorter TF like H1.
Quoting dzhini
Can you recommend any other instrument except trendline
There is no better "instrument" for determining trend than your own eyes.

If price is making higher highs and higher lows, you're in an uptrend. Lower highs and lower lows, and you're in a downtrend. Anything else, and you're ranging.

No fancy indicator is more accurate than that.
How fast everyone tries to change the OP's method. Certainly not surprised.
Quoting dzhini
For trend identifying S.Hopwood like to use RSI (H1). Can you recommend any other instrument except trendline
Firststrike is a once a week trade method ..... NOT HOURLY......
As to trend ID put a 50 SMA on your daily chart.... price above the 50 uptrend,,,, price below the 50 downtrend.......

This is not rocket science, keep it simple.
Would love to hear from anyone who had backtested FirstStrike or the Plus version over more than 400 trades and found an edge AFTER commissions/spreads/slippage over the Majors

My results have been disappointing. Have tested extensively with various stretch, stoploss, filters, using a trailing exit. Plus version performs a lot worse and using London's open has not been the best. However I still believe the concept is still robust but one has to search harder.
Hello RoelsMajor,

thanks for this interesting thread!

So perhaps you could check if my mathmatics are basically right

I calculated as follows for week 19:

(My basis is a weekly range of week 18 of 383 pips, and my open was at 1,6375)

Then, we will a) go long at about 1,6490 and we will b) go short at about 1,6260.

In case of a) SL will be at about 1,6334
In case of b) SL will be at about 1,6414

Alright?
Quoting ash234
Would love to hear from anyone who had backtested FirstStrike or the Plus version over more than 400 trades and found an edge AFTER commissions/spreads/slippage over the Majors

My results have been disappointing. Have tested extensively with various stretch, stoploss, filters, using a trailing exit. Plus version performs a lot worse and using London's open has not been the best. However I still believe the concept is still robust but one has to search harder.
we have 52 trades in a year. 400 means around 8 years... i doubt if any system can perform well over so many years. why dont you think the market dynamics change each year and its possible this system did well in last 2-3 years. this may be due to increased volumes or some such thing

if its done well in last 3 years i am ok with that

btw, how did you back test this ? since MT4 strateg tester doesnt accept weekly, did you write EA to work on daily and test it ? can you share yr results please ?
Quoting roundrock
we have 52 trades in a year. 400 means around 8 years... i doubt if any system can perform well over so many years. why dont you think the market dynamics change each year and its possible this system did well in last 2-3 years. this may be due to increased volumes or some such thing

if its done well in last 3 years i am ok with that

btw, how did you back test this ? since MT4 strateg tester doesnt accept weekly, did you write EA to work on daily and test it ? can you share yr results please ?
In a nutshell, by the original rules posted, this system is a loser over the past 4+ years. Tradestation summary report and equity graph are attached.

Since it was quite clearly pointed out earlier that this is "a once a week trade method ..... NOT HOURLY...... ", I guess I will leave my comments at that. For those that aren't afraid to bend the rules sometimes, I'd encourage you to experiment with it... it is quite a performer on H1 when traded in the direction of the trend and some sensible money management is applied.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: graph.JPG Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly.JPG Size: 83 KB
I have been trading this system for some time. So far it seems robust and profitable. Joel did send his trades/results in the weekly newsletter a while back, but it seems that he has stopped sending it since a couple of months.

For those looking for more information, backtests and insights, I recommend his blog. It has not been updated recently, but it is still a good read.

The profitability highly depends on the pairs traded, and trading multiple pairs seems to give quite a stable basket. At least that is my experience.
As for any system, your own testing and experience will show if this is suitable for you. There are many ways of modifying the system, even though the original rules seem to work, for now.
  • Post #39
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:18am May 10, 2011 4:04am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting Dortmunder
Hello RoelsMajor,

thanks for this interesting thread!

So perhaps you could check if my mathmatics are basically right

I calculated as follows for week 19:

(My basis is a weekly range of week 18 of 383 pips, and my open was at 1,6375)

Then, we will a) go long at about 1,6490 and we will b) go short at about 1,6260.

In case of a) SL will be at about 1,6334
In case of b) SL will be at about 1,6414

Alright?
I don't know your broker but this is data taken from FBS Holding Inc based on Reyna Indicator :
GU
Open Price This Week : 1.6357
Buy Stop : 1.6742
Sell Stop : 1.6242
Risk : 153 pips

This is OCO method.....once order trigger than another one must be closed....so just one trade per pair a week

Your data is very different from my data.....
The Markets just don't care what U believe...
Quoting cgrey
In a nutshell, by the original rules posted, this system is a loser over the past 4+ years. Tradestation summary report and equity graph are attached.

Since it was quite clearly pointed out earlier that this is "a once a week trade method ..... NOT HOURLY...... ", I guess I will leave my comments at that. For those that aren't afraid to bend the rules sometimes, I'd encourage you to experiment with it... it is quite a performer on H1 when traded in the direction of the trend and some sensible money management is applied.

Thanks for the time you put into backtesting the system but with respect I am doubting that you have the logic right.

Some reasons I say that are:

 

  1. largest loss - the SL should have kicked in before a loss of that amount
  2. the average number of bars - did you close at open on Monday
  3. the data in post 2 suggests that at the end of the graph there should be a steady positive up trend

If I have it wrong I apologise for this post.

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