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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,421
  • May 8, 2011 10:48am May 8, 2011 10:48am
Quoting malcolmb14
something does not smell right

massive drop in commodities for nothing .. or is it for nothing. USD gains strength on a shake out ... next item up on news .. US defaults on bond payments.

US stock market and majors lose all correlation , euro rips to 1.8 and es drops to 950
Possible Mal...

The Euro drop could be a shakeout for weak long...
I was long till my last Wednesday and start shorting last Thursday..

I see Euro weakest for near term thou..where longer TF trader may buy on dips..
But for the D1 or H4 TF trader like I am, bearish on Euro for now..


Sonic
  • #19,422
  • May 8, 2011 10:55am May 8, 2011 10:55am
lets say this

if you see one of those ultra high wide spread down bars close on lows and next 12 hour candle is up ( talking next london / us session) you better change your mind pretty fast

as i said i want this move to be proven. i also made about 600 pip on eu last week , oil insane ... es also did ok but with oil and euro moving so much did not trade it in later half of week.

I want to see an UP move , I want to see the reaction to that move .

To be honest I do not liek it when the market becomes insane like this. i prefer order .. 120 pip a day ranges , at least I know how the market is supposed to work then , right now it could do anything at anytime , including going up 300 pip in one 60 min candle

do you think a us debt default would be good for the USD ? lol ... make that 600 pip in 60 min


Quoting sonicdeejay
Possible Mal...

The Euro drop could be a shakeout for weak long...
I was long till my last Wednesday and start shorting last Thursday..

I see Euro weakest for near term thou..where longer TF trader may buy on dips..



Sonic
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,423
  • May 8, 2011 11:00am May 8, 2011 11:00am
http://seekingalpha.com/news-article...in-federal-aid

nice blame the impending market shake out on the housing market .... 1250 es here we come .. seen it in the weekly , seen it in the 12 hr and the good news friday got sold into
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,424
  • May 8, 2011 11:20am May 8, 2011 11:20am
Quoting malcolmb14
lets say this

if you see one of those ultra high wide spread down bars close on lows and next 12 hour candle is up ( talking next london / us session) you better change your mind pretty fast

as i said i want this move to be proven. i also made about 600 pip on eu last week , oil insane ... es also did ok but with oil and euro moving so much did not trade it in later half of week.

I want to see an UP move , I want to see the reaction to that move .

To be honest I do not liek it when the market becomes insane like this. i prefer order .. 120...

Lets See Mal..

Was slight bullish at last week start ,,made pips from long but my chart scream at me for short..in later days of the week..but made more pips from short..


Am still bearish for next week as a whole..until my chart screaming at me again..

Thx for VSA thread..
Sonic
  • #19,425
  • May 8, 2011 1:40pm May 8, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
for all da Canadians in the house ....

One for the rrsp .... 5 to 10% gain all in ....that is my goal.

massive shake out ....thinking 9.75 but could be 10.4
Attachment
Not exactly sure on what that one is - isn't it a S&P index fund? They call it a S&P bear fund - looks like it goes opposite to the S&P? Previous high volume doesn't seem to have reacted as expected in this one ... as long as the S&P heads down, this should head up, but I think the 12H volume could be inconclusive - not high enough for me yet, on the more 'standard' daily charts - just my 2 cents. I don't have enough good charting feeds to splice out a 8hr, 4hr and 2hr/1hr - am thinking we might see something more there.
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  • #19,426
  • May 8, 2011 1:52pm May 8, 2011 1:52pm
thinking with that shake out style bar on fairly high volumeo n bear etf , and the weekly no demand on es , followed by almost engulfing and good news being sold intoi at 1350 , we will see a journey to 10 maybe 10.5 , that is 10% ....will be me nicely

Quoting Beljevina
Not exactly sure on what that one is - isn't it a S&P index fund? They call it a S&P bear fund - looks like it goes opposite to the S&P? Previous high volume doesn't seem to have reacted as expected in this one ... as long as the S&P heads down, this should head up, but I think the 12H volume could be inconclusive - not high enough for me yet, on the more 'standard' daily charts - just my 2 cents. I don't have enough good charting feeds to splice out a 8hr, 4hr and 2hr/1hr - am thinking we might see something more there.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,427
  • May 8, 2011 11:02pm May 8, 2011 11:02pm
Where did you hear about "us debt default"?

Quoting malcolmb14
lets say this

if you see one of those ultra high wide spread down bars close on lows and next 12 hour candle is up ( talking next london / us session) you better change your mind pretty fast

as i said i want this move to be proven. i also made about 600 pip on eu last week , oil insane ... es also did ok but with oil and euro moving so much did not trade it in later half of week.

I want to see an UP move , I want to see the reaction to that move .

To be honest I do not liek it when the market becomes insane like this. i prefer order...
  • #19,428
  • May 9, 2011 2:48am May 9, 2011 2:48am
Good morning all!
Inclined to look at it as a bear-flag.
Does the very high tick-volume on previous hourly bar tell us something?

H1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,429
  • May 9, 2011 3:24am May 9, 2011 3:24am
Quoting USD-Bear
Good morning all!
Inclined to look at it as a bear-flag.
Does the very high tick-volume on previous hourly bar tell us something?

H1:
Attachment
Hey USDBear,

The bar in question looks like supply its heavy volume which actually pushes through old top and closes in the middle. So There is what looks like supply there.

And now we have had the close of the following hourly bar which is on slightly heavier volume but has made little upward progress. suggesting again that supply is there.

It could be absorption, but id like to see the next hourly bar down if were looking to confirm any weakness there.
so you could be right on the bear flag there.

T
  • #19,430
  • May 9, 2011 3:28am May 9, 2011 3:28am
Greeting. I've been away from trading for a while and would like some second opinions on my analysis please. I find brutal honesty from others the best way for me to learn.

Here's the trade i've been looking at . .. . see charts

Thanks in advance
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  • #19,431
  • May 9, 2011 6:16am May 9, 2011 6:16am
Thank you for the charts, very clear...might be because of less news today but eurusd is not moving much, I`ll wait until tomorrow or later during US.

Malc.`s comment that he wants to see a ND upmove/ retrace, or further signs of confirmation that this weakness or trend reversal is valid on higher TF`s is my motto for the week...

Many pips to all.



______________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #19,432
  • May 9, 2011 7:24am May 9, 2011 7:24am
Pretty quiet in general today, bit of volume came in over the past 5mins or so now that the US are up and running. Looking at hourly and higher time frames the volume is pretty low for the day in general.
  • #19,433
  • May 9, 2011 7:47am May 9, 2011 7:47am
Hi,

I would like to ask the pros here what they are using as a trend following tool. Are the painting of the bars and the diamonds enough to stay in the right direction?

If we want to trade the M15 and M5 timeframes, I know we have to check H4 and H1 to define the trigger lines and then we go to M15 or M5 to find an entry around those trigger levels. But for the trend following, do we look at H4 and H1 or do we look on the lower timeframes? It often happen to me that even if the diamonds and the bar colour are in the same position of my entry, then the price will reverse.

What do we do if there was an up trend and we see climactic action, and then the price is ranging a bit but the bar clour is still blue, the diamonds remained green and we have NS or a test at a trigger level? Can we enter long even if we saw weakness in the background? Because often in an up trend we'll have some SOW at the top of the waves. How do we know if they are genuine or not?
  • #19,434
  • May 9, 2011 7:50am May 9, 2011 7:50am
Dunno if anyone got in but there were multiple chances to get short on the 15 mins e/u, 3 no demands, 1 test/upthrust - unfortunately i was away from the computer.
  • #19,435
  • May 9, 2011 8:01am May 9, 2011 8:01am
Thanks for the input msmarple, you pointed out some juicy bits that I missed. Looking back that was a pretty aggressive entry, maybe a should have waited for the upthrust/no demand marked on this chart with (a) and (b)

Anyone?



Quoting msmarple
Thank you for the charts, very clear...might be because of less news today but eurusd is not moving much, I`ll wait until tomorrow or later during US.

Malc.`s comment that he wants to see a ND upmove/ retrace, or further signs of confirmation that this weakness or trend reversal is valid on higher TF`s is my motto for the week...

Many pips to all.



______________
michael
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  • #19,436
  • May 9, 2011 8:03am May 9, 2011 8:03am
Why shouldn't we go long here? I always detect the signal in the wrong direction :-(
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  • #19,437
  • May 9, 2011 8:05am May 9, 2011 8:05am
Here's a 1H of USD/CHF. The indicators are TG. This is an MT4/FXCM demo account. GMT.

The 4H chart has a few SOS's in the background after a long fall. My analysis is calling for a long, with a stop below the down bar that I marked as high volume.

I welcome any comments.
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  • #19,438
  • May 9, 2011 8:09am May 9, 2011 8:09am
Quoting MarcusFire
Here's a 1H of USD/CHF. The indicators are TG. This is an MT4/FXCM demo account. GMT.

The 4H chart has a few SOS's in the background after a long fall. My analysis is calling for a long, with a stop below the down bar that I marked as high volume.

I welcome any comments.
I would perhaps wait for an other NS or Test bar, because that NS bar is making a new high in the current small wave and it cannot really test something and on the other side it is quite close to the close of the bar with the highest volume. Well I would probably enter long on the breakout upwards, but I'm still learning and I hope other traders will give their advices.
  • #19,439
  • May 9, 2011 8:15am May 9, 2011 8:15am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Dunno if anyone got in but there were multiple chances to get short on the 15 mins e/u, 3 no demands, 1 test/upthrust - unfortunately i was away from the computer.
Yes, I managed to enter on time... 80 pips so far...

Les_Paul
  • #19,440
  • May 9, 2011 8:20am May 9, 2011 8:20am
Quoting dvarrin
Why shouldn't we go long here? I always detect the signal in the wrong direction :-(
Dvarrin, in my humble opinion there's no strentgh to the left of your chart so the test should not be relevant...

Les_Paul
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