GBP/USD Higher timeframe Analysis

GBP rising above the 5-day 50% level and heading back towards Tuesday’s breakout of 1.96390…

I have no idea how things will re-act around yesterday’s breakout, but any upside moves are back towards Wednesday’s highs….

Long on break @ 1.9608

Partial exit @ 1.9632 and holding

Run stops below 1.96000 or breakeven from entry, and hopefully it doesn’t stop and heads upwards…

Obviously a failure and move back under the 5-day 50% level and trading longs is open to Risk..

No dollar loss trade, if stopped out small gain....

GBP/USD continuing higher and moving above the Tuesday breakout...

Next partial exit is 1.9653 (moving into 90 pips from swing lows increased risk)

and then holding last lot into Wednesday highs with breakeven stops from entry

GBP moved into a choppy consolidating pattern around the 5-day 50% level, but eventually rallied up into Wednesday'd high's and reversed back down into the 5-day 50% level once again....

This week's looks like it's going to be a choppy trading week with an UP bias...

My first trade yesterday is highlighted (green circle) and the partial exits along the way...

Once I got stopped out at entry price, I didn't trade again (sleeping), but the breakout on the intra-day Ranges and crossover the 5-day 50% level was the trade I would have taken up into Wednesday's highs, and back down again if I was awake....

Short-term:- UP bias during this Weekly timeframe...

Support 5-day 50% level @ 1.9672
Resistance Friday highs @ 1.9805

Hi Frank,

Thanks for sharing. I think i get what you mean. This can be easily done using an excel but just wonder if you could post the dotted level for us. It look very nice on the chart.

regards.

GBP tested support 5-day 50% level 1.9672 and now rising.....

Expectation that price is heading towards Friday's highs...

However, intra-day resistance is around 1.9715-1.9726

Therefore is needs to break above that, stall and consolidate before heading higher during US hours....

you don't want to be shorting above intra-day resistance.....

Below 5-day 50% levels LONGS open to Risk...

If trading longs off support look to partial exit around 32-43 pips off the swing lows, with stops just below the lows, and hold......

This Week GBP has had an UP bias with a lot of rotation going on....

Each day has been supported around the 5-day 50% levels and rising upwards into the daily highs, and then reverseing back down

Also GBP has been moving in 120 pip ranges, and each swing low has provided a minimum 120 pip move from the spiral points....

This 120 spiral point low is matching the 5-day 50% level so the bias is to rise higher, and we know below the spiral low risk increases.

Since the last post price moved up 33 pips reversed back down into the 5-day 50% level and hopefully it will continue higher....

Don't trade longs below the spiral low....

Thanks for the heads up with no longs below spiral.

"If trading longs off support look to partial exit around 32-43 pips off the swing lows, with stops just below the lows, and hold......" Yesterday's post....


Yesterday was about using the 5-day 50% level and trading upwards towards the highs, however, once below the 5-day 50% level all longs were open to Risk, as price was heading down...

I made an earlier post about 32-43 pips......

After the post the market made 3x32 pip rotations until the 43 pip range high completed and sold off down.....Everytime the market came down into the 32 pip lows I re-bought and sold at the 32-pip highs, until the 43 pip high completed and then I stopped, and ran open positions with stops below lows...

Being a trader in Sydney I don't often have the luxury to trade US market moves, often I place my trade, take partial exits around levels and run stops just outside the levels, because I know if I'm wrong the market will reverse, but because that's happening whilst i'm asleep I often don't trade them....


Below is the Daily Ranges on the left, and the 32 pip ranges on the right, selling off from the 43 pip highs (white lines)

Have a good weekend....

Dear Frank;

I read your analysis since the beginning until the end and following the market as well. I think that is a great analysis, at least i get the point. it will be great and helpfull if the script to draw the 50%(pivot), high, and low for both daily dan weekly is available to be downloaded. ;-)

thanks you, anyway.

It could be coded for MT4 or you just use Fibonacci Trader. Dynamic Range or Dynamic Fibonacci Range, set at a period of 5 for daily, and 3 for weekly and monthly.

GBP trend remains down defined the Weekly 50% level....any further weakness this weak and expectation price heading down towards the Weekly lows and then the January lows....

The Failure of the Weekly 50% level and the push down on Friday suggests a lower low this week, with the intraday trends defined by the 5-day 50% level and the channel lows....


Whilst trading below Sunday's lows (1.9563) expectation is price heading down into Monday's lows...

I don't have any probability trades on Monday, whether Monday's lows support price or breaks lower and heads towards the Weekly lows...

GBP moving down into Weekly lows on Monday.....

once again resistance around the 43 pip high during the down move

Tuesday's trading expectation:- price is heading towards Tuesday's lows @ 1.93830, use Monday's breakout as resistance 1.94860

Once again no probability whether Tuesday's low will support price, because Price is heading towards January lows @ 1.9332

Cable bounced off January lows and is heading upwards towards February 50% levels....

Breakout of the 3-day range on Thursday, rising upwards from the 5-day 50% level...

Breakout of the 3-day range and I would like to see a reversal back down on Friday before any uptrend continues next week...

Upper Resistance levels 1.9792 - (friday's highs 1.9822)

Looking for a rotation back down into the break of the 3-day high....

Note: a down day had a random length, and any reversal can move back down further (5-day 50% level)

Don't short trade above Friday's highs, as a Weekly timeframe can close higher on Friday (bottom-to-top Pattern), as it looks to swing back towards February 50% levels

"Whenever the market breaks the 3-day lows, as it did on Friday, the expectation is that price would move to the extended low the next day before reversing back towards the break....whether it's going to come down again providing a 'HOOK' day?????

When we look at Wednesday's range, it might actually provide the breakout on the Upside tomorrow, than any higher moves today." (Yesterday's report)

Tuesday moved down into the Daily lows, and now Wednesday is going to set-up a reversal trade upwards, confirmed with the break of the 3-day highs...

Above the Tuesday lows and Weekly 50% level, I would like GBP to move up 90-120 pips from these lows. Personally I would like to see it just continue higher breaking the 3-day highs.

However, I know that price can move upwards, but move back down 90-120 pips before reversing off the Spiral low and then breaking higher on Wednesday, probably in the US timeframe.

Note: Technical Analysis:- trading below monthly 50% levels and 3-day SELL cycle, there is nothing to suggest any UP move will take place, certain things need to happen for any Up swing to happen (Breakout)

Because an UP swing into the 5-day 50% level from Tuesday lows, and then the failure can most certainly continue down on Wednesday..... (Trading below Weekly 50% level)

Ticker I have purchased Franks latest book Market Trading Market Timing.
Like yourself without the experience and understanding the methodology I am finding it very difficult to understand where I would enter/exit the market.

Frank has told me it could take weeks or months to fully understand and to become knowledgeable to put it into practice.

Would you or anyone else on here have a more understandable explanation of the books principles.

I know we all speak the same language but I find when people from other countries describe things they are not necessarily the same description as I would give, and are therefore harder to understand just because words are used in a different context.

By the way I am from Scotland living in England, Franks from Australia and I see your from America.
Even in a persons own country descriptions differ from area to area which at times complicate things.

Hope you understand what I mean.