DislikedHowever (and this is where you surely disagree), you have no REAL basis to support your argument here.Ignored
However, that only gets you so far... Right now, gold is priced for an inflation rate in excess of 30% a year for the next 3 years. Even if you 100% agree that inflation is on the rise and that developed world countries are too inept to do anything about it, you have to agree that thats not at all realistic.
But all of this misses the real point that Scotty and Grkfx are making. Regardless of the fundamental justification (or lack there of) for a continued rise in prices, those prices can only rise so far before anyone and everyone who wants to buy becomes fully invested.
Once they are - as was evidenced within the housing market back in 2007/8 - a little bit of profit taking can start a stampede for the exits. Without buyers, those taking profits push prices lower, which trigger stops which push prices lower still. Falling prices induce panic and suddenly you get a stop cascade. Within minutes prices drop 30-50-70%.
After that happens, it dosnt matter what the fundamental picture looks like because too many people will have been burned on the trade. Stories will come out in the news about how foolish people were to value gold that high... the sec/cftc/congress will rail against the evil speculators who fleeced unsuspecting grandmas out of their retirements funds... then they will push some damn fool legislation that makes commodity investing even harder... scores of "we buy gold" shops around the country will go bankrupt (mainly because they were too greedy to hedge their exposures)... and ultimately, gold will return to its historic role as a jewelery metal.
This same pattern has played out hundreds of times throughout history (across a wide range of securities) and will likely play out hundreds more. Many of you haven't been around long enough to have watched the process unfold a few times, so you still assume that a good fundamental driver is all thats needed for prices to run to the moon... but for those who have been around the block, its all to evident what is happening and how it will likely end.
Thats really what scotty's and grkfx's posts were about.