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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,401
  • May 7, 2011 3:06am May 7, 2011 3:06am
Quoting pres78
Focus on the high volume bars and the really wide spread bars. Start out assuming that the close will be the trigger but watch the H and L too as many times we will get reactions at these levels. I will usually just mark all 3 levels on the highest volume bar within the area of PA. I also mark all 3 levels of really high spread bars even of the volume isn't the highest because it represents some strange event or PA.
Thank you pres78!
  • #19,402
  • May 7, 2011 5:51am May 7, 2011 5:51am
Quoting ivonivon
thanks pres.
it is indeed the high of the day, and before the NFP news, it's been tested and never break.

I also respect market profile, as do some other traders here.
price's not been successful in taking london auction.

From such a spike since thursday, market should do some balancing, and not in a while, and repair the structure it left, creating another leg up. Again, not really vsa related, sorry if I mixed it here in vsa thread, but it's something that I also pay attention to.
I also use some MP... pretty basic on my end though as I only follow POC's, and VAH and VAL...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,403
  • Edited 3:09pm May 7, 2011 12:32pm | Edited 3:09pm
Still alive, did not get margin call after this move...lol


Ok, this how i marked my chart for now and what i see is stong bull move after this...into 1.5750-1.6000

I see this down move as an buying opportynity

Attached chart show the zones where i expect some reaction to happen

Blue, navi blue are weekly, monthly and daily triggers from those higest volume widest spread bars ...

Those i found as a good support for this "fall"

Also i attached on that 4h chart trigger lines of that 4h bar...red line and green...

Safest buy would be an up move above green line,1.4560 than an test on the same(if nothing change for now next week and that 4h bar stay the "king" of the bars)

Also i might buy something if we get above red line 1.4385...

For all of this we need first to see proper reaction

In my opinin the best support for now would be around 1.4220 til 1.4280 wich is realy stong daily support again based on triger lines from choosen bars

So 1.4220 or 1.4280....1.4385 and 1.4560 are for me now spots to watch for long entries

Longs coos of that huge volume daily bar... We had one simlar in Jan. this year and than nothing far in the past till April of 2010th


All the best
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Work smart not hard
  • #19,404
  • May 7, 2011 12:35pm May 7, 2011 12:35pm
Daily chart, 6e(euro futures)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Work smart not hard
  • #19,405
  • May 7, 2011 1:01pm May 7, 2011 1:01pm
Weekly of 6E.

would love to see SOS come in somewhere between 1.4276-4230

And don't forget its mothers day up here in Canada tomorrow!
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  • #19,406
  • May 7, 2011 1:12pm May 7, 2011 1:12pm
watching carefully...

Any up on a daily with a NO demand will also show us this is real weakness and not just a shake out.

Right now this weakness has not been confirmed that it is not a shake out. I am trying to keep an open mind

We could go down itno the major support 1.4000 before any real buyers move in.

I found it very interesting that ES got sold off the good news up move into 1350 , we could be seeing some us stock market weakness coming in

Quoting Lowell83
Weekly of 6E.

would love to see SOS come in somewhere between 1.4276-4230

And don't forget its mothers day up here in Canada tomorrow!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,407
  • May 7, 2011 1:34pm May 7, 2011 1:34pm
a little bit on the side, not VSA-related - just wanted to post a trimester chart showing main resistance areas above.

let's not jump the gun here with 1.57/1.6 yet; i can definitely see it on the chart, but we gotta go through 1.4639/1.5143 first and at the moment i see a significant bounce from this area with no signs of retrace.

1.4289, 1.4117, 1.4035/1.3990 are important levels to watch for partial tp, but i think bulls are taking a break as long as we stay below 1.4588... although next week this limit will most probably go lower.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #19,408
  • May 7, 2011 4:10pm May 7, 2011 4:10pm
Pure work of art

I am with you on this. I f I see an up move now back into 4500 area with a no demand I am selling with target 1.4 ish

we could also just be getting a shake out of the markets abnd testing of this monthly flag BUT if that 1.400 level breaks watch out below....

Monthly we have 150 pip till months range is complete 1.4202 , the flag line is 1.4175. I am going to be very wary around these areas

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting Scrat
a little bit on the side, not VSA-related - just wanted to post a trimester chart showing main resistance areas above.

let's not jump the gun here with 1.57/1.6 yet; i can definitely see it on the chart, but we gotta go through 1.4639/1.5143 first and at the moment i see a significant bounce from this area with no signs of retrace.

1.4289, 1.4117, 1.4035/1.3990 are important levels to watch for partial tp, but i think bulls are taking a break as long as we stay below 1.4588... although next week this limit will most probably go lower.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,409
  • May 7, 2011 6:26pm May 7, 2011 6:26pm
Duly noted.

Even on the 4H since the drop there has only been 1 up bar so far and a lackluster one at that.

It almost looks like what happened back in February, except this drop was much more violent.

Next week should be interesting.

Quoting malcolmb14
watching carefully...

Any up on a daily with a NO demand will also show us this is real weakness and not just a shake out.

Right now this weakness has not been confirmed that it is not a shake out. I am trying to keep an open mind

We could go down itno the major support 1.4000 before any real buyers move in.

I found it very interesting that ES got sold off the good news up move into 1350 , we could be seeing some us stock market weakness coming in
  • #19,410
  • May 7, 2011 6:28pm May 7, 2011 6:28pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Pure work of art

I am with you on this. I f I see an up move now back into 4500 area with a no demand I am selling with target 1.4 ish

we could also just be getting a shake out of the markets abnd testing of this monthly flag BUT if that 1.400 level breaks watch out below....

Monthly we have 150 pip till months range is complete 1.4202 , the flag line is 1.4175. I am going to be very wary around these areas

Attachment
I see very similar... Lots of points coming together at the 4200-4150 zone (both key levels from the April 18th SO bar) and we also tested into 4150 and closed above 4200 on April 5th. Until I see a move up and more SOW I am leaning towards Thursday and Friday being a SO off some "bad EU news" whether actual or not and some mixed US data giving the opportunity for SM to go risk off and take some major profits off the move up, create some crazyness and blow the hell out of the weak longs. I suspect we will see that this move down is being bought and now that we have gotten into proximity of 4300 I can see Monday taking us down into 4200-4150 and then back up for the rest of the Month.

The 4150 level is coincedentally enough the 38.2 fib retracement from this years H/L move. A close on daily below 4200 and I suspect we will test into 3900. We are in a similar price box as seen at the end of 2007 before moving up through and into 1.6 during 2008 trading.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,411
  • May 8, 2011 2:30am May 8, 2011 2:30am
I'm not sure but in one week 3 weeks of gain have been completely wiped out. And what's more it volume was pretty high. We have an 87% chance for going low from here.
  • #19,412
  • May 8, 2011 8:13am May 8, 2011 8:13am
Quoting malcolmb14
watching carefully...

Any up on a daily with a NO demand will also show us this is real weakness and not just a shake out.

Right now this weakness has not been confirmed that it is not a shake out. I am trying to keep an open mind

We could go down itno the major support 1.4000 before any real buyers move in.

I found it very interesting that ES got sold off the good news up move into 1350 , we could be seeing some us stock market weakness coming in

Hi Malcolm or anyone,

Could anyone please let me know what is 'ES' in the statement "I found it very interesting that ES got sold off the good news up move into 1350" from the above Malcolm's comment.

Thank you very much in advance
James
  • #19,413
  • May 8, 2011 8:57am May 8, 2011 8:57am
Hard to see from the charts i posted few pages agao

First line from bottom is 1.4090..trigger from an weekly bar

Yes i am also open for bouth side but ..more bullish

Thanks Mal, guys for comments

Nice way to learn something

Also Mal i see why did you choose that 1.4500 area to see no demand or some signs of weaknes..Those are triggers lines on daily chart as i can see..And if there is true weaknes in this down move we can expect it to be seen after an up move again on daily chart into this zone
Work smart not hard
  • #19,414
  • May 8, 2011 10:06am May 8, 2011 10:06am
never forget one thing

Professional money buys weakness and sells strength

just cause last week was one hell of a move ( for what btw / did banks collapse ? all it was was an unwinding of commodities as the margins are dramtically increased) , does not mean we are going to go significantly lower. Keep an open mind.

This weakness has not been proven yet. We need an up day / week on low volume or an ut to confirm the weakness


Quoting hutrader
I'm not sure but in one week 3 weeks of gain have been completely wiped out. And what's more it volume was pretty high. We have an 87% chance for going low from here.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,415
  • May 8, 2011 10:07am May 8, 2011 10:07am
draw line every 500 pip on your charts .. as the daily moves in 120 pip blocks the higher time frames move in 500 pip blocks , 4500 nice round number

Quoting sony
Hard to see from the charts i posted few pages agao

First line from bottom is 1.4090..trigger from an weekly bar

Yes i am also open for bouth side but ..more bullish

Thanks Mal, guys for comments

Nice way to learn something

Also Mal i see why did you choose that 1.4500 area to see no demand or some signs of weaknes..Those are triggers lines on daily chart as i can see..And if there is true weaknes in this down move we can expect it to be seen after an up move again on daily chart into this zone
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,416
  • May 8, 2011 10:11am May 8, 2011 10:11am
major weakness in the es ...

good news got sold into hard on Friday. I am thinking we see 5 to 8% drop in market thru June

1324 then 1300 on cards , lets see if there are buyers hiding down there
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  • #19,417
  • May 8, 2011 10:21am May 8, 2011 10:21am
Quoting malcolmb14
never forget one thing

Professional money buys weakness and sells strength

Very Good Piece Of Advice, Mal..

From what I see, we had a fake run up/break out to 1.494x lvl was a trick of money maker to load up short positions with the price rise...

I am expecting red/down candle in coming week,,

Sonic
  • #19,418
  • May 8, 2011 10:38am May 8, 2011 10:38am
for all da Canadians in the house ....

One for the rrsp .... 5 to 10% gain all in ....that is my goal.

massive shake out ....thinking 9.75 but could be 10.4
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  • #19,419
  • May 8, 2011 10:41am May 8, 2011 10:41am
something does not smell right

massive drop in commodities for nothing .. or is it for nothing. USD gains strength on a shake out ... next item up on news .. US defaults on bond payments.

US stock market and majors lose all correlation , euro rips to 1.8 and es drops to 950

Quoting sonicdeejay
Very Good Piece Of Advice, Mal..

From what I see, we had a fake run up/break out to 1.494x lvl was a trick of money maker to load up short positions with the price rise...

I am expecting red/down candle in coming week,,

Sonic
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,420
  • May 8, 2011 10:44am May 8, 2011 10:44am
can you say no demand ? weekly set up with engulfing next bar

this has to kiss 1300 to 1280
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