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Adilius Live Trading Journal

  • #81
  • May 6, 2011 12:56pm May 6, 2011 12:56pm
isn't that an insult?
  • #82
  • May 6, 2011 12:59pm May 6, 2011 12:59pm
Quoting Adilius07
Hi Sam, thanks for your post. Yes there are just a few traders in my area. But they quit one by one, so I think soon I am goint to be the last trader standing, lol. And of course there is no reason to discuss our losing performance...
Yeah, I hear you. I ran into a little of the same and now make a 4-5 hour drive to larger cities where I can network with more reliable, consistent traders.

Quoting Adilius07

Have you been able to keep positive balance for any significant lenght of time?
My first eight or nine months of live trading were profitable for me. As soon as I increased my account size, fear set in. That was 2.5 years ago and I'm still working to get over it, having increased my account size once again.

However, I also guage success by how I've never blown out an account and rarely see a drawdown past 15% (since account inception). I've accepted that it may very well take some time (5+ years) to get this down and as long as I keep learning and am not blowing out accounts, it will come around.

But I can see my issues and know it's myself preventing profitability...not my method of trading, etc. I've been trading roughly the same method for...three years now so, I know it works, just the end user that can't put them together

I don't know much about J16 (pinbars + a huge thread) but would like to think after a year, you could know that the method works and determine your lack of profitability is due to your issues. Whether it be not holding trades to targets, over trading, whatever. A couple of close stopouts? Bad luck. That sort of thing...

What do you think?

Anyway, keep doing what you're doing, keep your head on and find a way to prove (or disprove, if that's what you need) that people are making money in this business. I run through the same doubts you are from time to time and do what it takes to prove what I'm striving for and that there are people out there making it happen.

Have a good weekend!
  • #83
  • May 6, 2011 1:01pm May 6, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting Razorman
isn't that an insult?
Can you please clarify. I hope I did not attack no one again

I am not insulted on this forum.
I am here to learn and not to protect Homer's picture or anything.

Also I am here NOT to create some successful aura around me, I try to stay HONEST and I welcome ALL honest people... GH is honest and he says what he thinks, which is good and I welcome this, so no insults felt on my side if that is what you mean... ?
  • #84
  • May 6, 2011 1:10pm May 6, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting sam0182
Yeah, I hear you. I ran into a little of the same and now make a 4-5 hour drive to larger cities where I can network with more reliable, consistent traders.



My first eight or nine months of live trading were profitable for me. As soon as I increased my account size, fear set in. That was 2.5 years ago and I'm still working to get over it, having increased my account size once again.

However, I also guage success by how I've never blown out an account and rarely see a drawdown past 15% (since account inception)....
Thanks for your post Sam, yes I need to do a lot of thinking really.
J16 was the best discovery for me really. So maybe like you say the problem is "end user".. anyway I need to sit, think, and come up with something.

Ok, will go watch some TV... first time in like 10 days lol, too much chart time

Have a great weekend!
  • #85
  • May 7, 2011 1:22am May 7, 2011 1:22am
I did a backtest for the EURUSD Daily. The same chart where I have marked 44 trades chosen absolutely objectively ( only buob/beob only at BRN every one that occured without using any discretion - so just to keep it objective)

The backtest was using 2:1 RR ( no BE) and it does in fact look most profitable!
Oh man every month I add, change, include, rethink...
Now I seriously thinking if I should really do just that (2:1)?

Some trades would go much further that 2:1 of course, but it is easy in hindsight, so I don't think I would be able to catch those 10:1 consistently.

Also, some trades would go as much as 1R and then go to stop me out - those psychologically worst cases I think... so I was thinking that it should not hurt much if I use BE only and when my trade reach 1R.....

So this was just an update... I will hold my trading for a week or so, until I sort this things out in my head and in my written trading plan...

EDIT: any ideas, comments, critics please VERY WELCOME
  • #86
  • May 7, 2011 6:55am May 7, 2011 6:55am
Quoting Adilius07
I did a backtest for the EURUSD Daily. The same chart where I have marked 44 trades chosen absolutely objectively ( only buob/beob only at BRN every one that occured without using any discretion - so just to keep it objective)

The backtest was using 2:1 RR ( no BE) and it does in fact look most profitable!
Oh man every month I add, change, include, rethink...
Now I seriously thinking if I should really do just that (2:1)?...
Maybe instead of opening one order with x lot size, you should open two orders with x/2 lot size. And trade the first lot 2:1, and the second one 10:1.
For example: Instead of opening one 1.0 lot order, open two 0.5 lot orders. Close the first order when you reach your first goal 2:1, and let the second order run for 5:1, 10:1, or even further.
Or if you can handle higher risk, open two orders of 1.0 lot size.

Best of luck to you.
  • #87
  • May 8, 2011 2:15am May 8, 2011 2:15am
Quoting Mr.NiceGuy
Maybe instead of opening one order with x lot size, you should open two orders with x/2 lot size. And trade the first lot 2:1, and the second one 10:1.
For example: Instead of opening one 1.0 lot order, open two 0.5 lot orders. Close the first order when you reach your first goal 2:1, and let the second order run for 5:1, 10:1, or even further.
Or if you can handle higher risk, open two orders of 1.0 lot size.

Best of luck to you.
Hello Nice, thanks for your post. Yes, I was also thinking about something like this. In particular DIBS approach to trade management.
  • #88
  • May 14, 2011 4:20am May 14, 2011 4:20am
hey adi, just dropped by. will read the whole thread and offer my view sometimes if thats ok with you..?

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #89
  • May 14, 2011 4:51am May 14, 2011 4:51am
greenhaze, offtopic, however you think that your avatar is something to write back home about? maybe it is but then your home prolly is a mental institution as well. :nerd:
  • #90
  • May 14, 2011 5:05am May 14, 2011 5:05am
Quoting ruffryders
greenhaze, offtopic, however you think that your avatar is something to write back home about? maybe it is but then your home prolly is a mental institution as well. :nerd:


Have you seen my chickens?.....I cant find my chickens....
  • #91
  • May 15, 2011 7:59am May 15, 2011 7:59am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey adi, just dropped by. will read the whole thread and offer my view sometimes if thats ok with you..?

jon
Hi Jon, that would be super awesome!!! When you find time.

Some posts are over emotional, so I beg your pardon, was feeling stressed and frustrated at some point after series of losses...
  • #92
  • May 16, 2011 5:52am May 16, 2011 5:52am
hey Adi, just my intitial thoughts on what your doing....

i dont like the BE concept, the market doesnt give a flying fcuk about your BE stop. just a guess but count how many of those BE trades finally went your way without hitting a full bar stop?? The market DOES care about s/r and so i dont see any point in putting your initial stop at a technicaly significant place only to throw it in the line of fire 1 bar later and hoping all the bullets just happen to miss!!! It makes sense to protect your capital of course but i personally think there are better ways. e.g. close out 2/3 of the position (if you think it might run)at the FTA or at 1:1 of the stop(whichever comes first) and LEAVE THE STOP ALONE UNTILL THE MARKET GIVES YOU A NEW ONE. that way you can secure your trade ,take a little profit(makes you feel better if nothing else..lol )without throwing your protection away...i.e. the good stop placement.
i repeat THE MARKET DOESNT GIVE A FLYING FCUK ABOUT YOUR FEAR OF LOOSING MONEY. IT DOES RESPECT S/R....ETC

sorry if that sounds a bit strong its just i have strong feelings bout it. i love that your very methodical about your approach though. a lot of people get lazy with that stuff. i know from personal experience it is very hard to get passed BE trading to profitability and it is a long hard road. i think your doin fine and are well on your way. you seem to be getting a decent win rate on your trades and with experience it will improve and you will see the sucker setups and the trouble areas easier. the issue here seems to me to be (please correct me if im wrong) your R:R?? my other sugestion would be to forget a TP of a fixed amount as in reality the market will respond to s/r (obviously among other things also) and not your profit margins! some trades need to be closed before an imagined 1:1 or 1:2 return and some can be left to run much longer. (you saw my silver demo trade) giving back to market is a fact of life if we want to hold trades a long time. last week i had a eu/us short with a 25 pip stop....it ran 150 pips and i still had my full (very small) position. got stopped out in the end for plus 70 or something. such is life. the other option is to close full pstition at the first serious trouble area (trying to let it ride through the first minor ones) i personally think this would give you the best results??

hope you realize this is not to critisize but to try to encourage and help.
happy hunting

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #93
  • May 17, 2011 3:55am May 17, 2011 3:55am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
hey Adi, just my intitial thoughts on what your doing.......

Hi Jon,

Thank you very much for your post. Yes I am completely agree with you on BE concept. Even though it makes me feel good and "safe" during a trade it really affects my performance.

For example, this is my transaction history (see attachment).

With Targets and RR, this is also a painful subject for me. At the moment I am thinking about the following approaches:

1. "Trailing" which will give me a huge home run trades sometimes, but because of same trailing technique I will have more stop-outs (and now they are not BE but will be either full or reduced SL).

2. Taking full profit at the FTA - using WIPG and taking profits at first FTA looks as really high win rate, but 1 full SL will wipe out 3-4 trades too.

3. Taking partial profits is also attractive, however as I look on my charts I just don't see any instrument that keeps on going and going, most of them will chop up and down (so will hit my SL on the remaining portion most of the time) - which will leave me with a partial profit on the portion of my position (compared to full SL in full position - when it hits).

So I know many do split their positions, I just cannot believe it could be profitable for me, I don't feel this method really.

4. Taking full profit AT THE NEXT AFTER FTA S/R (second FTA) - yes this one seems to me as most promising method. However here again I am kind of in doubt what to do when the Price hits first FTA? Moving my SL to BE - no, that I did for a year with consistently loosing performance. SO I guess the only alternative for me at the first FTA is either WAIT AND SEE (like if price could easily break through it) or TAKE FULL PROFITS (if price stalls at it).... so yes this will require some baby sitting too, a lot of subjectivity but at least I have hope and trust that this may work. That is almost like that Silver trade remember, I was closely monitoring that S/R (first FTA) and when I saw the counter BEOB I just bailed out with small profit. So again no fixed targets here, sometimes I will get 0.2R sometimes maybe 2R who knows..

OK, I'm afraid this post is getting to long now. I will continue with method #4 desctibed here, and let's see how it goes. I really need to give up the BE thing. Just see my results most $0 trades are very good potential winners, some are fantastic ( I honestly checked each!!!) BE does not save nothing, it is an illusion.

Thanks,
Adi

EDIT: in the PL you can see that I am trading 2% now (started with 1%)
Attached Image
  • #94
  • May 17, 2011 4:44am May 17, 2011 4:44am
sounds good Adi, good luck.
just remember to give your ideas plenty of time to let them proove themselves good or bad.
Also once you have some methods you are comfortable with you can use whichever seems right for the individual trade. the markets are highly dinamic and we need to address each trade individually.

happy hunting

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #95
  • May 17, 2011 7:50am May 17, 2011 7:50am
As i said before, leave the trades to hit their profit targets. You will see a difference.

Thinking you can predict what the market will do once it hits the FTA is an illusion.

Just leave it and let it either hit the stop loss or the take profit.

Adilius, you are trading with scared money, as long as that is the case you will never progress forward.

That is the hardest thing in this biz, to let go of the money.
  • #96
  • May 17, 2011 8:24am May 17, 2011 8:24am
Quoting Razorman
As i said before, leave the trades to hit their profit targets. You will see a difference.

Thinking you can predict what the market will do once it hits the FTA is an illusion.

Just leave it and let it either hit the stop loss or the take profit.

Adilius, you are trading with scared money, as long as that is the case you will never progress forward.

That is the hardest thing in this biz, to let go of the money.
Hi Razorman, as I am just learning I am open for all other variations to trade management.

Whatever can make me profitable.

And I do keep in mind the method you mention. Actually that is the way I started (and most others too probably) setting the SL and TP (far away) and just wait, it was not profitable for me back then, but back then my Entry criteria were different too ( not J16).

However for now I think I will try more flexible approach, and maybe as The_Wizard suggested to me I will make a separate excel file to trace all those trades with different trading methods! That was a great suggestion too, will start on this soon and will post my findings here also, of course.
  • #97
  • May 20, 2011 7:24am May 20, 2011 7:24am
Ok, here is what I am going to do the next few months.

Any trade I take I will keep a separate record for "what if I left this trade as Set&Forget for 1R and 2R". I will keep this record for at least 20 trades, will post my results here after first 10 trades.

Here is a visual example. Red lines are my SL and TP's 1R and 2R.
Yellow line was my actual exit. So here I can see that if I used target as 1R I would have realized a Full Bar Loss on this trade. Breakevens or SL reduction will not be used for this test. True Set&Forget approach.

Let's see what my results will show us, which method have the most edge given the same entry? (set&forget vs. my own discretion with SL reduction and flexible TP's)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 200511_usdchf_h4.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #98
  • May 20, 2011 7:56am May 20, 2011 7:56am
10 trades? you are gonna make a conclusion after 10 trades?

try 200.
  • #99
  • May 20, 2011 8:00am May 20, 2011 8:00am
Quoting Razorman
10 trades? you are gonna make a conclusion after 10 trades?

try 200.
Hi Razorman, no conclusion is after 20 trades.

Sometime very soon I will get to the point where 200 trades will mean 20 years of my life. (I hope)

So I don't see any reason for this. I'm not trading 1minute chart, my main TF is Daily and I learn to be picky. (which means 2-3 trades per month will be my normal routine soon, I hope
  • #100
  • May 25, 2011 4:32pm May 25, 2011 4:32pm
for performance tracking you can try myfxbook.com

just a suggestion
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