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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,681
  • May 5, 2011 8:41am May 5, 2011 8:41am
Quoting fti
hi vic,
i have some small leveraged long cable long euro long usd against yen positions. these are in some % negetive territories.
the bulk of my positions are cash
short yen positions against all majors swaped daily and skewed added when i feel like touch bottoms.
so no fear of margin calls. And since they investments than trades, i plan carry them until the yen reflects real ground stiuation, which will be clear by the end of the year.
Of course i wish i could actively trade but the jumpyness is killing my mindset. So i best avoid that unless...
Hey F!
Stink ops.
Re: health.With some time you'll get back to a more normal situation.
Rgds.
  • #24,682
  • Edited 9:21am May 5, 2011 8:57am | Edited 9:21am
Quoting jacson101
Hey F!
Stink ops.
Re: health.With some time you'll get back to a more normal situation.
Rgds.
Hi jack,
Sure hope so.
Been on minimal meds for a week now.
Surprisingly feels much better without the meds.
Only that the chest feels wierd.
some alien seems inside. and i can feel that chap.
I have much GTN on standby just in case .

Maybe i shouldn't had rewatched the Alien movie. Put strange stuffs in my mind.


regards

By the way, had a couple new Lenovo big screen ideacentre comps installed near the bed. Hates the Windows 7 preinstalled. Does any one know how to kill that beast and reinstate Win XP or Ubuntu 11? Heard the new Ubuntu is kinky.
  • #24,683
  • May 5, 2011 9:55am May 5, 2011 9:55am
Quoting fti

By the way, had a couple new Lenovo big screen ideacentre comps installed near the bed. Hates the Windows 7 preinstalled. Does any one know how to kill that beast and reinstate Win XP or Ubuntu 11? Heard the new Ubuntu is kinky.
Hello FTI,

Give it a try.
The Win 7 (Premium at least) is not so bad.
It is also quite stable (with the required hardware, of course)

By the way, do you have experience with CME,
or did you hear any comments positive / negative about?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/

Kind regards,

Textor
  • #24,684
  • May 5, 2011 10:16am May 5, 2011 10:16am
Fti,

To get Ubuntu on those puters, you need to download an iso copy and burn that to a disk or put it on a usb stick. If it is burned on a disk, make sure the puter will boot from the disk drive or usb first. If you put the disk in the drive and restart the puter and it boots into Ubuntu all you need to do is click on "install Ubuntu" and then tell it to use the entire disk when promted. You mak have to make a couple other clicks and it will be installed.

I run Linux Mint on mine. If I can be of assistance please PM me. I will be glad to help.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #24,685
  • Edited 10:46am May 5, 2011 10:23am | Edited 10:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E_U clasic W.jpg Size: 80 KB


clasic W (2x 112 chart 16secs)

good luck to all!
  • #24,686
  • May 5, 2011 11:39am May 5, 2011 11:39am
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Thank you textor for the video.
here my 2 cts.

What is reported in the ted video is truly happening in the OTC market places.
With advancement in technologies and ability of computer alsos to trade in nano seconds ( which no humans can) and the old maxim of protecting books with stops.

regards
Hi fti, I know for a fact that the big banks in London are looking for low latency specialists, meaning they are looking to reduce the network latency it takes to process trades - cutting microseconds off the already fast networks. I was wondering what they were up to. I also noticed high payment rates for skilled programmers within some trading automation divisions.
  • #24,687
  • May 5, 2011 7:06pm May 5, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting fti
Hi jack,
Sure hope so.
Been on minimal meds for a week now.
Surprisingly feels much better without the meds.
Only that the chest feels wierd.
some alien seems inside. and i can feel that chap.
I have much GTN on standby just in case .

Maybe i shouldn't had rewatched the Alien movie. Put strange stuffs in my mind.


regards

By the way, had a couple new Lenovo big screen ideacentre comps installed near the bed. Hates the Windows 7...
edit:
I'm still laughing...stink ops., funny...
  • #24,688
  • May 5, 2011 7:45pm May 5, 2011 7:45pm
Hi fti,

Not too sure what's not to like about W7, just a matter of getting used to it. Do not hear of peeps who have done that and still go back to XP.

If you were to compare Ubuntu 11 with windows it would be more like W7 than XP!

However you can run Linux from a USB stick, to try it without losing windows.

This software http://unetbootin.sourceforge.net/ will download Ubuntu 11 and install it on a usb stick. You just need to reformat the usb stick first. Fat 32 format. (Also ensures the stick is empty.) It's a 750 mg download, also designed to burn on a CD. (You would think Linux would upgrade to a DVD by now ) However a USB is a better option as you will be able to save any changes you make. When you turn you PC on, continually tap the F12 key. This should bring up a Boot Option for you to select the usb (for Linux) or the HDD (for W7).

If you get stuck doing this and mess up the PC, just remember I am praying for you well being!
Good Trading
  • #24,689
  • May 6, 2011 4:32am May 6, 2011 4:32am
Quoting textor
Hello FTI,

Give it a try.
The Win 7 (Premium at least) is not so bad.
It is also quite stable (with the required hardware, of course)

By the way, do you have experience with CME,
or did you hear any comments positive / negative about?

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/

Kind regards,

Textor
Hi Tex,
Sorry , wanted reply early, then sudden energy loss.

yes , CME, CBOT, COMEX, these the pioneers and the gold standard of derivative futures contracts trading.
In fact CME was in joint venture with reuters and partners to bring about the automated order filling book, then called Globex. Now probably eased into the background with the advent of the retail forex scene.

The achelles heel with futures contracts and their business model is basically cost.
On top of price spreads they charge for clearing of trades. Unless you are exchange members then the cost is not condusive for acitve trading. IN all they work like a private club. The plus is thet in those markets, the servallance and compliance are very on the ball, so there is good safety in terms of trade party risks.

regards
  • #24,690
  • Edited 5:21am May 6, 2011 4:55am | Edited 5:21am
Thank you tubguy for the advice. and Thank you aud, for the link.

I am conversant with ubuntu 10 as some of my systems are running ubuntu in sg. You see i am no geek, althought i understand programming. I just hated the development of all the changes in the high level languages. Only programmers i respect are those of them that can code in machine or assembly.
So I in my ways tends avoid fat bloated , children produced modules. And i view Windows 7 as one of them. Takes away my freedom to work as i want. Children tends to create very rigid enviroments, because they normally have limited scope and foresight. However they do well on things like nice GUI and presentation. I find is over dressing and also resource and speed hog.

But at the end of the day, I not like to tweak systems, because when system bugs and manipulation hits the fan, I will need to redo a million tweaks.So i try to live with what is available. Either it does the job well or i not want waste any storage space for it.

I had seen the better looking GUIs in windows 7 , but ifeel the freddom to work as i like is lost. Moreover they not fully backward compatible with their own roots. any time someone wants break away from roots, it better be something revolutionary, or i just consider it childish developments, or they trying scam for money only.

So decided running my old XP in virtual machine mode instead. My Xp pro is 32 bit, i hope runing it on top W7 64bit, may give me some speed improvements. But i am no hoping for much. These 5i systems not seem run any faster than the old 2 core systems.

Thanks for helping guys.
And good hunting for the NFP tonight.
I not think well for the USD, but must stay nimble huh, people? no bias is best.


regards
  • #24,691
  • May 6, 2011 5:32am May 6, 2011 5:32am
Your article is misguided and erroneous. You speak as though technical indicators have value in themselves, when they do not. Whatever technical indicators a trader adds to his or her chart, they will be absolutely useless unless the majority of the industry also uses them. There are only two reasons why markets move when they do, and these are either due to economic news/world events, or it is when the technical picture as recognised by many thousands of traders around the world reaches a critical pivot. Identify and learn well the main indicators used by the big players, there are only a few of them, and you will be on the right side of the majority of the major moves.

Trading requires the mastery of many skills, and the holy grail will not be found solely within as this article claims. No amount of psychological training, important though it is, will bring you success in the markets if you do not fully understand and know how to use the critical technical indicators, and the shorter the time frame you trade, the greater this applies. Work hard to attain the right mindset, but work even harder to understand exactly what is going on in your charts.
  • #24,692
  • May 6, 2011 5:37am May 6, 2011 5:37am
Quoting cat
Your article is misguided and erroneous. The speak as though technical indicators have value in themselves, when they do not. Whatever technical indicators a trader adds to his or her chart, they will be absolutely useless unless the majority of the industry also uses them. There are only two reasons why markets move when they do, and these are either due to economic news/world events, or it is when the technical picture as recognised by many thousands of traders around the world reaches a critical pivot. Identify and learn well the main indicators...
Hello Cat
You write in your profile that "you are not there yet". Do you really think that is good to argue with Fti himself? Do you know who he is? regards
  • #24,693
  • May 6, 2011 6:30am May 6, 2011 6:30am
As fti said "Little knowledge is a dangerous thing"
It keeps on coming up in my mind.
  • #24,694
  • May 6, 2011 6:33am May 6, 2011 6:33am
Quoting Fana
Hello Cat
You write in your profile that "you are not there yet". Do you really think that is good to argue with Fti himself? Do you know who he is? regards
Thanks for the reply!
Not there yet because though trading profitably, I have plenty of room for improvement, as we all have. And I have no idea who Fti is, does that matter?

He correctly states that a successful trader needs a whole complex of skills, but I honestly feel he downplays the importance of technical analysis. It is my firm conviction, and I feel I am qualified to say this because I have spent the past two years making every mistake in the book and learning by pure trial and error, that although the psychological aspect of trading is vitally important, most traders never get to the stage where they are starting to psycho-analyse themselves because they have already quit trading due to the fact that were were unwilling to spend the time and the effort to really study the markets, and that includes a thorough study and understanding of technical analysis, and this takes a long time. Do that first, and only when you are confident that you have acquired these skills, should you start worrying what is going on inside your head. Put this the other way round, or ignore one altogether, and anyone will be setting themselves up for failure.
  • #24,695
  • May 6, 2011 6:43am May 6, 2011 6:43am
Quoting cat
Thanks for the reply!
Not there yet because though trading profitably, I have plenty of room for improvement, as we all have. And I have no idea who Fti is, does that matter?

He correctly states that a successful trader needs a whole complex of skills, but I honestly feel he downplays the importance of technical analysis. It is my firm conviction, and I feel I am qualified to say this because I have spent the past two years making every mistake in the book and learning by pure trial and error, that although the psychological aspect of trading...

Hi cat,

when you have some time to invest in something, then the best you can do is read round about the firsat 200 pages of this thread. It can be by far thge best investment you have ever made.
You will come very soon to the conclusion, that no one in here believes that TA is "cow dung" per se. You only have be very aware of it's limitations and also how to use it ...

There are people who need the speedometer in their cars to gauge, that they are driving too fast. There are others, who can feel it without that technical tool ..

Welcome to the thread!

Niels
  • #24,696
  • May 6, 2011 6:48am May 6, 2011 6:48am
Hi Cat,

Who exactly are you to question Fti? Maybe you should read more and speak less until you realize where Fti has been. Not trying to be rude here, but I'm pretty sure he knows what he's talking about and you would be too if you will read further.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #24,697
  • May 6, 2011 6:53am May 6, 2011 6:53am
Quoting cat
Thanks for the reply!
Not there yet because though trading profitably, I have plenty of room for improvement, as we all have. And I have no idea who Fti is, does that matter?

He correctly states that a successful trader needs a whole complex of skills, but I honestly feel he downplays the importance of technical analysis. It is my firm conviction, and I feel I am qualified to say this because I have spent the past two years making every mistake in the book and learning by pure trial and error, that although the psychological aspect of trading...

WTF!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,698
  • May 6, 2011 6:55am May 6, 2011 6:55am
"There are people who need the speedometer in their cars to gauge, that they are driving too fast. There are others, who can feel it without that technical tool .."

Yes there are, but you can bet your bottom dollar that these people have spent many years getting to this stage, it does no just happen. Like driving a car, it takes many hours of driving before you can forget that the clutch, gear stick, and all the indicators are there.

Thanks for your reply Neils!
  • #24,699
  • May 6, 2011 6:58am May 6, 2011 6:58am
Quoting fti
hi vic,
........
PS: AUD seems pretty good investments, due to their being Gold backed, and their bullion purity and colour attractiveness. Moreover they seem only major league player left that has an interest rate.
Hello FTI,

I see ... then I keep my AUD and put them on my tucker bag,
and then rest beside a billabong ...

Enjoy:

Inserted Video


Thank you.

Textor
  • #24,700
  • May 6, 2011 7:01am May 6, 2011 7:01am
Quoting cat
"There are people who need the speedometer in their cars to gauge, that they are driving too fast. There are others, who can feel it without that technical tool .."

Yes there are, but you can bet your bottom dollar that these people have spent many years getting to this stage, it does no just happen. Like driving a car, it takes many hours of driving before you can forget that the clutch, gear stick, and all the indicators are there.

Thanks for your reply Neils!
Hi again,

yeah, that is why we consider the development and the trading itself as "ants work". In science there is talk about round about 10.000 hours of training that our neural networks need, to develop a skill to mastery level ...

Seems we are on the same track - so let's have a polite and constructive discussion, after you have digged a little deeper in what is presented here.

Cu,
Niels
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