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Lost in the Tunnel...

  • #341
  • Feb 4, 2006 10:47pm Feb 4, 2006 10:47pm
Quoting HeavyJ
After strudying Vegas Tunnel systems for several Months now I have seen the addition of about any indicator or combo thereof to try and tweak results favorable.

I am not knocking on these folks, but I dont see the indicators helping any more than what the tunnel is telling you.

I have become some what of a tunnel purist! I believe that the probablilities presented by the tunnel, propper money management, And price action, at critical levels, as taught by james16 gives you the maximum edge.

I must admit I don't know a whit about ichamuko however.

Maybe you could post a chart and show how it improves profitability, longterm.

Anyway I hope you do well with your indicators and if you think they give you an edge.......then by all means.....

HeavyJ
I must also agree. 8/55 mas combined with price action was good enough for me in the past and still is. Proper money management and SLs is another story.
A friend of mine likes it cluttered with dozens of indicators. Unless 20 of them don't 'line up' he won't trade and that's fine. I prefer KISS however.
  • #342
  • Edited 3:08am Feb 5, 2006 3:00am | Edited 3:08am
Quoting HeavyJ
After strudying Vegas Tunnel systems for several Months now I have seen the addition of about any indicator or combo thereof to try and tweak results favorable.

I am not knocking on these folks, but I dont see the indicators helping any more than what the tunnel is telling you.

I have become some what of a tunnel purist! I believe that the probablilities presented by the tunnel, propper money management, And price action, at critical levels, as taught by james16 gives you the maximum edge.

I must admit I don't know a whit about ichamuko however.

Maybe you could post a chart and show how it improves profitability, longterm.

Anyway I hope you do well with your indicators and if you think they give you an edge.......then by all means.....

HeavyJ
http://buymeridia.info/images/ichamuko.jpghttp://buymeridia.info/images/ichamuku.jpg

The most important thing that you have to watch is the clound. You should not do anything (open short or long positions) when the price is in the clound.
You can compare the current result with "traditional" vegas method - 5 and 21 moving averanges. As you can see the 21 EMA is downward slope and 5 SMA is touching 21 EMA.

http://buymeridia.info/images/eurusdweekly.jpg

The information about ichimoku is given HERE and HERE
I was interested in this indicator when I was searching for japanese methods of trading. In Japan it is very popular method of trading.
  • #343
  • Feb 5, 2006 12:51pm Feb 5, 2006 12:51pm
Quoting tomecki
http://buymeridia.info/images/ichamuko.jpg

The most important thing that you have to watch is the clound. You should not do anything (open short or long positions) when the price is in the clound.
You can compare the current result with "traditional" vegas method - 5 and 21 moving averanges. As you can see the 21 EMA is downward slope and 5 SMA is touching 21 EMA.



The information about ichimoku is given HERE and HERE
I was interested in this indicator when I was searching for japanese methods of trading. In Japan it is very popular method of trading.
Thanx for posting the Chart!

Could you post it again someone spilled coffee on the first one!

Only joking!

OK now if I get this straight you Said:

Quote
The most important thing that you have to watch is the clound. You should not do anything (open short or long positions) when the price is in the clound.
But the weekly prices are in the cloud for only a 10 week period. And another 2 week period over a three year period! If the cloud is to Protect you from bad trades, surely there would be more instances in this 3 year period.
Quote
You can compare the current result with "traditional" vegas method - 5 and 21 moving averanges. As you can see the 21 EMA is downward slope and 5 SMA is touching 21 EMA.
I did my best on this! The chart below shows a portion of the trades that the "cloud" would keep you out of in the "10 week cloud cover". I don't think I need protection like that.......Maybe an umbrella

NOTE: The Vertical Bars are as follows:

Green= Bullish Momentum Trend
Red = Beraish Momentum Trend

Now I am sure that in Japan and indeed many other regions that this indicator is the cornerstone of some very profitable systems. It comes down to what makes you confident.

As for me, All I need is the Vegas systems, Meaty discussions with system developers Like Diallist, Black Dots, Weekly Momentum, 55ma, 8sma hook, extreme fib levels, risk/money management plan, horseshoe, rabbits foot, my lucky toaster, and my blankie.......

Good trading all
HeavyJ
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HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #344
  • Feb 5, 2006 1:01pm Feb 5, 2006 1:01pm
Quoting HeavyJ
... It comes down to what makes you confident.

As for me, All I need is the Vegas systems, Meaty discussions with system developers Like Diallist, Black Dots, Weekly Momentum, 55ma, 8sma hook, extreme fib levels, risk/money management plan, horseshoe, rabbits foot, my lucky toaster, and my blankie...
http://www.accrete.com/emo/ROFLOL.gif
  • #345
  • Feb 5, 2006 1:30pm Feb 5, 2006 1:30pm
Quoting HeavyJ
I did my best on this! The chart below shows a portion of the trades that the "cloud" would keep you out of in the "10 week cloud cover". I don't think I need protection like that.......Maybe an umbrella


HeavyJ
But you are not forced to use this indicator on weekly chart. You can use it on 4H chart.
By the way - you dont have to use anything even indicators because they are giving you a delayed signal.
  • #346
  • Feb 5, 2006 4:12pm Feb 5, 2006 4:12pm
Firehorse, I remember reading your post somewhere and I cant find it now but I know it was in referance to my backtest... Please read below why we most likely got different results

For the backtesters, please read

When you calculate momentum on the weekly, there is a common thing I believe most of us have failed to realize. When we calculate the momentum, we use it in prediction for the upcoming week....I believe many have made the same mistake I made. We calculate the momentum and when we turn to the 4hr chart we initiate trades on the week we calculated it for, not on the week ahead.

Please take this into consideration. Im eager to hear comments.
  • #347
  • Feb 5, 2006 6:02pm Feb 5, 2006 6:02pm
Hi S Power
Quoting xspowerx
Firehorse, I remember reading your post somewhere and I cant find it now but I know it was in referance to my backtest... Please read below why we most likely got different results

For the backtesters, please read

When you calculate momentum on the weekly, there is a common thing I believe most of us have failed to realize. When we calculate the momentum, we use it in prediction for the upcoming week....I believe many have made the same mistake I made. We calculate the momentum and when we turn to the 4hr chart we initiate trades on the week we calculated it for, not on the week ahead.

Please take this into consideration. Im eager to hear comments.
My reply is here

Basically for the 5 trades you calculated, I was actually able to calculate a higher pip return "218pips versus your 136"
From my calculations, I had a secondary trade where you took it as a primary.

Also one of your trades was split into two in my calculations because with my data, the 8SMA turned down and back up again.

If you could provide dates for your two unknown trades I can re-run the program again.

I did a 'predictive' with the weekly momentum because that was the only way I could begin to match the results I was getting from the eurusd in the first few periods of the original 4hr vegas document. If I did properly by lagging, I could not explain the results of the first few periods in the eurusd and I didn't change it as a comparison against your figures.

It would be great if you could also have a time against trade entry and exit so that I could match the 'bar' time with you as well.

Also, 5 trades doesn't logically make it a profitable system. I've had profitable results for a hundred trades and then have the system bomb. I was hoping to run the 4hr tunnel rules mechanically against data and have it coming out being much more profitable than stated as the original document said it gave the less profitable result. Unfortunately, my backtest results showed that I could not duplicate the results. I'm still trying to see if it is my misunderstanding.

So if are able to run through eurusd of the 4hr document and come up with more profitable results than the pessimistic ones they give then I would be really pleased to see where I have gone wrong in my backtesting.

Best regards
Alan
  • #348
  • Feb 12, 2006 12:58pm Feb 12, 2006 12:58pm
It looks like Vegas has posted the "official" Vegas Daily Document. Interesting read. Seems to clear up some of the questions from his post in this thread. http://www.freewebs.com/mswilson/

Has anyone gotten results from this variation yet? Is the Daily method being taught in the PF?
  • #349
  • Feb 24, 2006 4:46am Feb 24, 2006 4:46am
Doing some reseach earlier this month some backtesting gurus "called" me on a mistake that I had made in my calcs. While I was somewhat embarrassed, they all suggested the mistake may still have some value.

.........so I plotted it on my weekly.

Here is an example of the product of the bonehead art.

(This is germaine to the V4T)
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HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #350
  • Mar 7, 2006 10:57am Mar 7, 2006 10:57am
To anyone,
What and where is PF?
Thanx
  • #351
  • Mar 7, 2006 1:38pm Mar 7, 2006 1:38pm
Quoting pippie
To anyone,
What and where is PF?
Thanx
Hi pippie,

The PF or Private Forum is a subscription based trading education service. It's formal name is The James16 Group. For more information go to www.james16group.com or click on the link in my signature.

Thanks for your interest.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #352
  • Mar 8, 2006 1:10pm Mar 8, 2006 1:10pm
Quoting firehorse
Why not discuss particular situations here?
Thanks
  • #353
  • Mar 8, 2006 1:36pm Mar 8, 2006 1:36pm
Quoting pippie
Why not discuss particular situations here?
Thanks
Hey Pippie,

I'm up for it! You got some particular situations to discuss?

(regarding the 4hr tunnel?)

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #354
  • Mar 9, 2006 2:44am Mar 9, 2006 2:44am
Thanks Heavy,
Am I wrong in assumming that Vegas no longer uses the Weekly MAs? This is what I read from below. Also, Do you know much about the KNIFE system. Does it really improve on the 4hr tunnel?
With the 4 hour tunnel method, I am inclined to use ‘The Vegas Currency Daily’ black dots as guideposts for determining whether to be long or short from the signals. The difference in the values of the weekly MA’s [moving averages] in determining long or short can often lag the market quite dramatically. If the black dots are above the daily tunnel, initiate short positions when you get the 4 hour signal, and if the black dots are below the daily tunnel, initiate long positions when you get the 4 hour signal.
  • #355
  • Mar 9, 2006 5:10am Mar 9, 2006 5:10am
Quoting pippie
Thanks Heavy,
Am I wrong in assumming that Vegas no longer uses the Weekly MAs? This is what I read from below.
With the 4 hour tunnel method, I am inclined to use ‘The Vegas Currency Daily’ black dots as guideposts for determining whether to be long or short from the signals. The difference in the values of the weekly MA’s [moving averages] in determining long or short can often lag the market quite dramatically. If the black dots are above the daily tunnel, initiate short positions when you get the 4 hour signal, and if the black dots are below the daily tunnel, initiate long positions when you get the 4 hour signal.
Howdy Pippie.

The short answer is. I don't know what Vegas does beyond what you have pointed out. As for me in a nut shell, I do not discount the weekly ma. I believe through rather vigorous study, That both the VWB and 4hr methods can work together in concert. Sometimes aiding, sometimes opposing each other.

My original treatise, and helpful comments from others are here if you would like to understand more. I sent a synopsys of ths to Vegas who said I was correct in my assumption.

VWB Chapter 3 Study

Quote
Also, Do you know much about the KNIFE system. Does it really improve on the 4hr tunnel?
The actual changes to the 4 hr vegas model are slight in the Knife. What is different in the Knife is Dials complete understanding of this model and his uncanny ability to communicate the model as a "system". In my view this is a big difference and improvement.

Dial has modified the system somewhat with the advent of VWB I believe, and while I am a PF member, I must admit I am not totally up to speed with all changes. But I do know that Dial does not go off willy nilly with changes to his system so I imagine they are quite good!

Hope this helps

HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #356
  • Mar 9, 2006 10:00am Mar 9, 2006 10:00am
HJ,

would you use the 5SMA or the 5EMA to determine the current trend right now on the USD/YEN
with the 5SMA its still in a downtrend, but using the EMA its in an uptrend already.
was short the usd/yen and got stopped out at BE, then i decided to take a look at the 5EMA and it could be a secondary long setup instead. I might not trade at all though, seen price seems to be forming a triangle and it might just break out in either direction.
What are your thoughts on this
  • #357
  • Edited 12:44pm Mar 9, 2006 12:33pm | Edited 12:44pm
Quoting jotty
HJ,

would you use the 5SMA or the 5EMA to determine the current trend right now on the USD/YEN
with the 5SMA its still in a downtrend, but using the EMA its in an uptrend already.
was short the usd/yen and got stopped out at BE, then i decided to take a look at the 5EMA and it could be a secondary long setup instead. I might not trade at all though, seen price seems to be forming a triangle and it might just break out in either direction.
What are your thoughts on this
Hey Jotty,

I haven't been following this pair lately but I just took a quick look.
The ema is more powerful, or seems to be at the close when it prints for the week. because it's based on the close it tends to bob up and down on the current bar.

Japan news was not so good as was expected.

If I were trading this pair I would be inclined to look for another 8ma hook Long. Would be nice to have a new weekly High though

Be careful---Nonfarms out tomorrow!

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #358
  • Mar 13, 2006 8:59pm Mar 13, 2006 8:59pm
Quote

Step 1.
Create a weekly chart [bar or candle] of a currency pair. On this chart overlay a 21 EMA [(H + L)/2], and a 5 SMA [(H + L)/2]. Note that the 21 period is an exponential moving average and the 5 period is a simple moving average.

Now, look at the difference between the two. As a market rises over time on the weekly chart, the 5 will rise faster relative to the 21. As the market goes down, the 5 will lose faster relative to the 21. The difference, in pips between the two, measures relative momentum of the market in real time.

Hello, I am a new member of this forum. Based on the previous quote from the 4-Hour Momentum Tunnel Strategy,
Can anyone please explain how do you measure the difference in pips between the two Moving Averages? Is it an approximation or is there an exact way to measure it? Thanks, any help would be appreciated.
  • #359
  • Mar 13, 2006 9:43pm Mar 13, 2006 9:43pm
Quoting pip_maker


Hello, I am a new member of this forum. Based on the previous quote from the 4-Hour Momentum Tunnel Strategy,
Can anyone please explain how do you measure the difference in pips between the two Moving Averages? Is it an approximation or is there an exact way to measure it? Thanks, any help would be appreciated.
Pip maker,

Maybe Dial will come by and answer. His explainations are better than mine!

Here is a sloppy chart that shows how I do it in MT4. If you don't use MT4
maybe you will still get the gist!

Good journey.
HJ
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Explain Weekly MA.zip   185 KB | 676 downloads
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #360
  • Mar 20, 2006 1:18pm Mar 20, 2006 1:18pm
Hi everyone,

This is a great forum, and I appreciate all the knowledge that is posted here!

I have been studying the 4 Hour Tunnel for about 6 months now, and I am having trouble figuring out how to read the Weekly chart, to determine whether to take long or short positions for any particular week. I seem to have trouble interpreting what Vegas meant in his explanation in the 4-Hour Document. I have scanned thru this thread, but I have not found anything that clears up my confusion.

I would like to email Vegas about this, but I am sure he is busy and do not want to bother him!! Is there any way some one could re-explain this to me?

Thanks in advance!!

Christian
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