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Silent Service Method

  • #12,341
  • May 4, 2011 4:03pm May 4, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting clockwork71
Last time I looked, I think we were closing below that trend line......I would want to see it prove itself first personally.
do you take trades based only on trendlines?
just curious...
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #12,342
  • May 4, 2011 4:23pm May 4, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting aserbfx
do you take trades based only on trendlines?
just curious...
No.
  • #12,343
  • May 4, 2011 4:24pm May 4, 2011 4:24pm
The silver trade is dead for a while. They just announced that the CME raised the margin requirements yet again. This is 4 times in about 10 days. This is going to be bad again.

I think silver is still a bullish market, but there is a ton of reasons to let it go for now.
  • #12,344
  • May 4, 2011 4:34pm May 4, 2011 4:34pm
Quoting aserbfx
do you take trades based only on trendlines?
just curious...
I think this may speak for a few of us here, but we probably tend to use a trend line as an extra reason to make the trade if price is reacting to it, not trade 100% purely because of it.
To me, a trend line can act as a dynamic Support & Resistance but I don't believe it holds the same strength as a real S/R area (Say the 80.00 area on the USD/JPY)

So to speak, if price reacted at the 80.00 area and there was ALSO a trend line there at the same time and place, then it adds to the reason to make the trade.

Hope that helps...
  • #12,345
  • May 4, 2011 9:45pm May 4, 2011 9:45pm
Quoting InfinitySL
The gold-silver ratio was (I meant to post this chart yesterday morning) at its lowest level in 30yrs. You don't have to go as far as me and short silver, but if you're buying precious metals, I don't understand why you'd want Silver -- I'd be looking at Gold/Platinum/Palladium.

Today this is about 32.85, so no longer at 30yr low...
Right now that ratio is $1518 / $39.08 = 38.84, or 18% higher than when I posted this (< 1 week ago). Not even I thought it would rebound that fast. I took profits, but I'm guessing this probably has further to go as all the froth gets wrung out of the silver market. Did anyone else notice that more shares of SLV traded than SPY (arguably the largest and most liquid ETF on the planet) the other day? I think that tells you something...

I guess even a blind squirrel finds a nut.
  • #12,346
  • May 5, 2011 8:20am May 5, 2011 8:20am
Quoting VitaminBeer
I think this may speak for a few of us here, but we probably tend to use a trend line as an extra reason to make the trade if price is reacting to it, not trade 100% purely because of it.
To me, a trend line can act as a dynamic Support & Resistance but I don't believe it holds the same strength as a real S/R area (Say the 80.00 area on the USD/JPY)

So to speak, if price reacted at the 80.00 area and there was ALSO a trend line there at the same time and place, then it adds to the reason to make the trade.

Hope that helps...
Perfect explanation. Certainly better than the one I could bang out on my smartphone.
  • #12,347
  • May 5, 2011 8:24am May 5, 2011 8:24am
Quoting InfinitySL
Right now that ratio is $1518 / $39.08 = 38.84, or 18% higher than when I posted this (< 1 week ago). Not even I thought it would rebound that fast. I took profits, but I'm guessing this probably has further to go as all the froth gets wrung out of the silver market. Did anyone else notice that more shares of SLV traded than SPY (arguably the largest and most liquid ETF on the planet) the other day? I think that tells you something...

I guess even a blind squirrel finds a nut.
Actually, the other day I noticed something: That everyone was talking about $50 an ounce in silver. And when I mean everyone, I mean I head someone at the supermarket talking about it. I remember thinking that it sounded a whole lot like oil when it was at $145 a barrel. I took a trade in ZSL, which is the double inverse silver ETF, but am already out w/ small profits. To be honest, silver is too damn volatile for me most of the time, let alone these days.

I have said this before: Our job as traders is to identify bubbles, ride them, and when the general public suddenly becomes overly interested: get out or short them. That's it in a nutshell.

While gold is in its own universe.....there will come a day when it starts dropping, and dropping fast.
  • #12,348
  • May 5, 2011 8:25am May 5, 2011 8:25am
By the way, I have my new Twitter feed up on the blog, fell free to join it as I am killing the other one. Also, look for the blog to become much more active as I am consolidating a lot of things in the near future.
  • #12,349
  • May 5, 2011 9:20am May 5, 2011 9:20am
Uh oh.....watching a silver commercial on television right now - the rush is over. lol
  • #12,350
  • May 5, 2011 9:43am May 5, 2011 9:43am
LOL. silver is at pretty important price flip right now maybe wait for price action here.

so is the euro.
  • #12,351
  • May 5, 2011 11:50am May 5, 2011 11:50am
New video up at blog.
  • #12,352
  • May 5, 2011 1:25pm May 5, 2011 1:25pm
Anyone else play the short pinbar @ 90 on EURGBP? Can't post a chart til I get home from work, but seemed like a pretty solid entry.

Gold & Silver are cracking...especially silver. Gold/Silver ratio up to 41.25 to 1...

Interesting world we live in...
  • #12,353
  • May 5, 2011 3:02pm May 5, 2011 3:02pm
Oh boy - Just looking at the Euro right now is like seeing fire works with cracks and pops....
I'm almost getting excited!
  • #12,354
  • May 5, 2011 5:11pm May 5, 2011 5:11pm
SLV chart - the epitome of pain. (Silver ETF)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silverslv.png Size: 96 KB
  • #12,355
  • May 5, 2011 5:21pm May 5, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting clockwork71
SLV chart - the epitome of pain. (Silver ETF)
Eh. At least it temporarily brought gas prices down.

Even better if you got a piece of the pie today.
  • #12,356
  • May 5, 2011 8:49pm May 5, 2011 8:49pm
So, I said I'd post a chart when I got home, but little did I know that my chart would not look anything at all like what I expected. So I placed an order late last night below a pinbar I saw forming around the 0.90 level. I placed it (or so I thought) around 0.8970. I came home today to see how it actually got executed, and here it is (1 minute chart):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-05-05_EurGBP_gap.png Size: 53 KB


So I guess that's what happens sometimes when you trade at an ECN (makes you wonder if the bucket shop would have honored your "stop" in this scenario). But it obviously raises the issue of trading around the news. I think not only did we have jobless claims which were much worse than expected and we had Trichet at the ECB making news about interest rates in the Euro zone.

Anyway, here's the bar I was looking at prior to entry:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-05-05_EurGBP2(daily).png Size: 41 KB


And finally, here's a peak at the weekly bar setting up -- Dangerous holding this over NFP tomorrow, but I'm already in it with a little profit, so we'll see what happens (also considering this doesnt involve the USD, in theory that news shouldn't affect this cross, but we all know that's not true).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-05-05_EurGBP(weekly).png Size: 55 KB
  • #12,357
  • May 5, 2011 9:49pm May 5, 2011 9:49pm
BTW, anyone out there watching copper? Usually a good one to follow for clues about the health of the global economy. Sitting right at support. Perhaps it just got taken down with all the other commodities or perhaps it's telling us something about growth. I'm not smart enough to know but I'll be watching for what it does next.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-05-05_Copper.png Size: 51 KB
  • #12,358
  • May 6, 2011 12:36am May 6, 2011 12:36am
Quoting InfinitySL
BTW, anyone out there watching copper? Usually a good one to follow for clues about the health of the global economy. Sitting right at support. Perhaps it just got taken down with all the other commodities or perhaps it's telling us something about growth. I'm not smart enough to know but I'll be watching for what it does next.

Attachment

Yeah, I heard some people talking about copper today actually. I believe that it probably just got taken down with everything else. Of course......it is only my opinion about it - and nothing based on anything in general.
  • #12,359
  • May 6, 2011 7:56am May 6, 2011 7:56am
It will be interesting to watch the EUR/USD with the positive announcement of the NFP numbers today. This pair normally will rise with the positive numbers.....as the USD isn't bought since the currency is often used for safety in bad times. The EUR has been sold off though, due to JCT's failure to mention a few magic words the other day. Because of this, it will be interesting to watch the FX markets today.

I would emphasize the word watch.
  • #12,360
  • May 6, 2011 3:30pm May 6, 2011 3:30pm
It absolutley sucks that a lot of what looks like the start of major moves always happens on Good ol' NFP and I am powerless to do anything about it.

I can only hope for retracements and just wait and see what comes next
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