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  • #241
  • May 4, 2011 10:10am May 4, 2011 10:10am
Quoting Platypus
Oh boy!!!

Just stop and think for one minute guys. How many times Geoge Soros broke the bank of England?

Most of the successful and famous traders out there made the biggest chunk of their money quick and than managed to keep their money or increase it slowly.

Why this phenomena?

Why Soros cant break some banks every other day?
Why Livermoore died broke?
why Tudor Jones is still not richer than Bill gates?
Why the banks don't trade their way out of their debts?
Why GS has to cheat, manipulate, and inside trade the markets?
Why big institutions...
exactly! very good points!
  • #242
  • May 4, 2011 10:29am May 4, 2011 10:29am
I personaly dont believe in in consistantly monthly returns with about 200% and more.

I´m now trading about 2 years live and since 6 months i`m able to take about 5% - 10% per months return.
I personaly would be very glad if I can hold this return for the next year. But you never know

(p.s. sry for my bad english)
  • #243
  • May 4, 2011 11:21am May 4, 2011 11:21am
Quoting nubcake
is that a real question? why do i sometimes feel like i'm only punishing myself by being here?

seriously... http://www.google.com.au/search?q=fake+myfxbook

One of my favorite ways to learn from others is through Trade Explorer here on FF. I have been requesting certain individuals to use this feature on FF in order for me to learn from how they trade. Whether they win or lose, I analyze the trade data, and try to understand the good and the bad from it; it is a great exercise in learning.
  • #244
  • May 4, 2011 2:54pm May 4, 2011 2:54pm
Quoting Platypus
Oh boy!!!


Consistency is the key word!! If you double your money today just to lose all tomorrow what is the point?
'bout time you showed up. Unfortunately no one here listens to this basic common sense and why would they? most of them are doing 10%/day,week,month and encouraging anyone who isn't to stop aiming so low
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #245
  • May 4, 2011 4:37pm May 4, 2011 4:37pm
you guys can all make as much or little as you like, so to speak.

but if you think for one second that if you gave tudor jones or livermore a 10k account and expected them to make 10 to 30% return by the end of a year then seriously wake up.

who in their right mind expects millionaires/billionaires to be still risking x% to make y% per day / week / year. there is NO GAIN for having the same risk profile as someone starting with $10k. the reward required to maintain being STUPIDLY FREAKING RICH requires immensely less risk than someone playing a penny account trying to generate a bankroll that they can later scale back on the risk aspect to maintain a bitching lifestyle beyond that of typical blue and white collar drones.

the fact is you simply can NOT push whatever amount of money through a market as you feel like. there is a point where it simply becomes unwieldy. UNTIL all of you are sipping cocktails next to george soros or paul t j then you can forget about thinking you know what issues they deal with and how they manage their money.

fun fact : at some point you have to take the money out and spend it, else what's the point? if you can make $1M a year based on an account that you maintain at around $50k each week by banking all excess funds above that figure then why would you WANT or NEED to do anything else. there's no benefit from leaving a few mil in your trading account. people have to eat, and buy houses, and hookers and drugs etc etc etc. not everyone is a hedge fund aiming to scrape just a few million from a few billion in client funds or whatever and receive their fees etc on top.

basically, hedge funds are the 'crack' 19 year old tech experts at your local retail electronics store who just smoked some weed during their lunch break. when you have enough average joes who can't do anything themselves giving you money to basically run a defrag on their computers and get paid to do this then you are already on a winning business model. you don't need to overhaul each customers pc and push it to the absolute performance limit because you firstly don't have the time to do this due to secondly having enough volume of customers who can't do any better themselves paying you to do this for them.

you guys are ridiculous. the way you talk is as though Mr Famous Trader leaves all of his funds in his trading account, when in reality they are ONLY trading such a SMALL percentage of their overall net wealth. you surely won't find these massive hedge funds putting the fabled 1% on per trade from their total available millions/billions in overall capital.

seriously guys, grow up.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #246
  • May 4, 2011 5:09pm May 4, 2011 5:09pm
further to my last post :

it is entirely possible that some of you are trading exactly the same way as these revered hedge funds. it is unlikely, but imagine that you are even putting the EXACT same trades on at the EXACT same time and managing them all precisely the same way as the hedge funds. in effect, you are the same as the hedge funds.

the problem is, you AREN'T the same. i doubt y'all have the same total funds available. you are playing by the right rules for the wrong game.

you are trying to ridicule the potential of a jet ski because you are fascinated and blinded by what a super-tanker can do. you base your own abilities and framework on that of the super-tanker because you see that it works. it plods along and carves it's path from port to port and can travel vast distances safely. the problem is that you are neither the super-tanker nor the jet-ski. chances are you are simply Ella's Pink Lady

http://www.sail-world.com/photos/Med...ink%20Lady.jpg

you are neither as agile or fast as the jet ski nor as robust and effective as the super tanker. you are just plonking around in the ocean hoping the winds take you somewhere while the jet ski zooms past you laughing and the super tanker doesn't even notice you existing.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #247
  • May 4, 2011 7:44pm May 4, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
'bout time you showed up. Unfortunately no one here listens to this basic common sense and why would they? most of them are doing 10%/day,week,month and encouraging anyone who isn't to stop aiming so low
Hey Doug whats up!?! Last time I heard from you you seemed to be on the same illusion boat...no...?

Well anyways hope you learned your lesson, all traders have to mature sooner or later and accept reality.

I would advise those genius out there ( and they seem all to flock here at FF) to go trade for a hedge fund. If you make 10% per month, again 10% per month you can trade for GS have a six figure salary and a bonus on the end of 4TH quarter that can very well be on the double digits ending with a M.

But hold on........people here trade idealistically....right? Those genius also have a huge heart!! They prefer to trade small accounts and help the newbies here like....Cloggie does !!!

Such philanthropic atmosphere warms my heart!!
  • #248
  • May 5, 2011 12:09am May 5, 2011 12:09am
Quoting Platypus

I traded for banks for 20 years and 7 to 12% per year was enough to make my boss and clients happy and insure a nice bonus at the end of the year.
Precisley my point, if 7 to 12% per year is enough to make someone happy then why bother risking more?? BUT that doesn't mean 100% a year is difficult to do, again someone is comparing apples to oranges.
  • #249
  • May 5, 2011 12:12am May 5, 2011 12:12am
It's a shame that there are no trading contests (with real money) that go over a couple of years. That would definitely show what is possible and what is not.
  • #250
  • May 5, 2011 12:35am May 5, 2011 12:35am
Quoting Platypus

I would advise those genius out there ( and they seem all to flock here at FF) to go trade for a hedge fund. If you make 10% per month, again 10% per month you can trade for GS have a six figure salary and a bonus on the end of 4TH quarter that can very well be on the double digits ending with a M.
Why would anyone in their right mind earn that money and has the freedom that goes along with it and then work for someone else ????? http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=33841
  • #251
  • May 5, 2011 1:18am May 5, 2011 1:18am
Quoting nubcake
further to my last post :

you are trying to ridicule the potential of a jet ski because you are fascinated and blinded by what a super-tanker can do.
Very good posts, nubcake The question remains, why do you keep telling the same facts again and again? They will never get it, because they want to trade their 1K accounts for %5 yearly gains....?

Think about this: with a starting balance of 10K USD and 5% increase each year, after 50 years you would have 114674 USD in your account. Minus initial 10K, you have a 104674 USD net profit. That gives you 174 USD profit per month!!! And don't you dare to aim for anything bigger
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  • #252
  • May 5, 2011 1:20am May 5, 2011 1:20am
Quoting nubcake
you guys can all make as much or little as you like, so to speak.

but if you think for one second that if you gave tudor jones or livermore a 10k account and expected them to make 10 to 30% return by the end of a year then seriously wake up.

who in their right mind expects millionaires/billionaires to be still risking x% to make y% per day / week / year. there is NO GAIN for having the same risk profile as someone starting with $10k. the reward required to maintain being STUPIDLY FREAKING RICH requires immensely less risk than someone playing...
Nub mate, don't stress over it. You know the saying , "you can lead a horse to water etc"

There are some very clever open minded people on FF and there are some real , "know it all" loser types too.

I like to keep an open mind, find the good stuff here and improve my trading skills. I was told 10% a month was good when I started out then I found people here making that a week or day even, it inspired me to find out how and up my game.

Negative Nellies, I hate to be brutal but just because you cannot do it doesn't mean it cannot be done.
  • #253
  • May 5, 2011 1:27am May 5, 2011 1:27am
Quoting fiftylots
Very good posts, nubcake The question remains, why do you keep telling the same facts again and again? They will never get it, because they want to trade their 1K accounts for %5 yearly gains....?

Think about this: with a starting balance of 10K USD and 5% increase each year, after 50 years you would have 114674 USD in your account. Minus initial 10K, you have a 104674 USD net profit. That gives you 174 USD profit per month!!! And don't you dare to aim for anything bigger
honestly, i ask myself the same question. the answers i come up with are that :

1. i really am a nubcake. so there's always that going for me, regardless.
2. it's personally worth the distraction sometimes to type out some stuff, even if it is ignored, ridiculed, or condemned to be unprofitable newb-talk
3. it helps to clear the herd between who has what mentality when i see the replies, if any.

edit :

Jag... yup. i don't know why i do it to myself sometimes. some people like pain and i guess i'm one of those people. being interested in trading is probably proof enough of that already anyway.

edit 2 : i just thought of another reason why i bother... to perhaps inspire someone to do what others claim can't be done. it is an entirely selfish act as i hope their thoughts come to the factory, i then see them, and i then become inspired by their knowledge / abilities / realizations / mentality etc and perhaps turn the corner in achieving my goals.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #254
  • May 5, 2011 2:15am May 5, 2011 2:15am
Quoting nubcake
honestly, i ask myself the same question....
I also enjoy this discussion. It somehow inspires me too to look more and deeper into trading systems' potentials.

I still think that especially in the beginning people should aim very low. As Sperandeo put it, the most important is preservation of capital, the second most important is consistency and the third most important is superior returns.

I can just speak from my experience. I also started on the very low time-frames expecting crazy returns from the beginning. But these expectations lead me to somehow reckless trading. One account after the other was burnt.

Once I started to see things more realistically, freed myself of these expectations, focus on the downside more than on the upside, and actually analyzed the systems and edges they had, things started to work out great. Capital was preserved, consistency started to kick in and returns were already superior, but definitely not in the realms of 5% a week.

Maybe one day I can achieve the 5% a week return, who knows, but for the moment I am still very sceptical.

I think, if you wanna become a jetski (as nubcake put it), then it is important to first learn how to drive with a rowing boat and slowly build up from there. It is our expectations that kill our accounts.
  • #255
  • May 5, 2011 2:55am May 5, 2011 2:55am
Quoting Custos
I also enjoy this discussion. It somehow inspires me too to look more and deeper into trading systems' potentials.

I still think that especially in the beginning people should aim very low. As Sperandeo put it, the most important is preservation of capital, the second most important is consistency and the third most important is superior returns.

I can just speak from my experience. I also started on the very low time-frames expecting crazy returns from the beginning. But these expectations lead me to somehow reckless trading. One account after...
all fair calls. personally, from MY experiences it is far more rewarding to aim further than you can reach. coming from a martial arts teaching background i believe that you can teach newbies the basics to get them started and this is, of course necessary (this would be like sitting on the babypips forum doing their so-called education). but once the core language and basics are gained you can then either continue to teach newbs just the next level and have them pick this up usually slowly, or you can really stress their coordination and attention and abilities by taking them slowly through much higher level techniques.

in doing this they gain the seedling knowledge of some higher level techniques that will slowly form into competency over time and at the same time drags-up their beginner skills and abilities in quicker fashion.

it's like kids. if you only let them read first grade books that is all they will be able to read. but if you think they can handle something more and let them read a books for higher grade children they might not understand what they are reading but it enhances their first grade level reading, and for any child that does understand the higher grade books then they are now fast tracking to even better reading skills.

people need to challenge themselves if they want to gain skills. if they just plod along at the level they are comfortable with then they might even just get left behind.

same with weightlifting. you can't lift the same weight day after day if you want to lift heavier weights and build bulk. you need to stress your body to then be able to grow.

as my own head-to-wall banging action takes place i might very-well find that i need to take a step back to a higher timeframe for example and within this arena is where my profits lay, but i don't want to start there by default (especially when i can see the fallacies and pitfalls associated with higher timeframes, but that's another story), and not when i believe to my bones that massive scalping profits are possible simply due to the high frequency.

anyways. longer post than intended. not an argument or disagreement, just my own thoughts and beliefs.

edit : i guess it is all a form of ambition. you can crawl around and try and take assisted steps to learn to walk, or you can make a mess of yourself by trying to walk and run and jump and even fly. you might get hurt more and get shredded to hell, but you gain so much more feedback and knowledge and most of all experience from pushing further than the safety-net of just one step forward at a time.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #256
  • May 5, 2011 4:48am May 5, 2011 4:48am
We tend to cloud our minds with these issues of percentages that we fail to see the true picture. If you throw open a contest and ask every trader to make 5% returns for the next 6months. believe me, nearly half of the folks here can pull that off. However any one who can pull of 5% consecutively needs only to adjust his parameters and really his mind set and goals a little to rake more because it is already clear tht such an individual has the discipling and skills it take to be successful trader. it dosnt matter if your target is 5% per month or week or even day. Every real trader knows that there are winning trades and there are losing trades. No trader can boast of 100% profitable trades no matter how low u target. In my experience it pays more to target high,
Bottom line.. It is very doable to rake up profits of more than 5% monthly even weekly. A trader may not be able to repeat such fits regularly, but can make for not very good weeks with very good weeks. personally I worry more about mainatining a profitable position weekly than how many % Im able to replicate each week
Add value everyday in Pips
  • #257
  • May 5, 2011 5:36am May 5, 2011 5:36am
To gain higher than 'average' returns you must:

1) Trade more frequently.

2) Increase risk/trade.

3) Accept deeper DD's.

If for example one is capable of gaining 5% per month risking 1%/trade, then in order to 'up their game' and gain more all it comes down to is:

1) Trade the same setup on lower tf's allowing a faster turnover.

2) Increase risk/trade.

3) Accept deeper DD's.

But in the end it is consistency not only in gains but in trading that is fundamental to achieve the above.

Then like nubcake says about doing this with a 7 figure vs 4 figure account influences hugely. I must be an absolute fool to keep 7 figures in a trading account. Who in their right mind would do that in a retail environment?! (unless institutional accounts...).

So yes, to me these 'huge gains' are possible, achievable and even realistic.

Would i do it with a 6/7 figure account? Hell no!!

Would i do it with a 'small' account I use? Absolutely.

But in the end what is possible and what is NOT possible has nothing to do with arguing who is right or wrong.

It has to do with what <<<YOU>>> personally are capable of doing.

Ive been pulling off an average 5%-10% per day for close to a month now.
Am I consistent? Nope!

But it hasnt got to do with my method. It has to do with my CONSISTENCY in APPLYING my method.
  • #258
  • May 5, 2011 4:50pm May 5, 2011 4:50pm
As I see it, the key lies in whether it's possible to scalp profitably on the shortest TFs, where spread has relatively greater effect, and there is arguably more noise. If - and this is the crux of the matter - a scalper can attain a similar (net) profit factor to a position trader, then, everything else (e.g. risk per trade) being equal, the former's daily ROE will be ballpark comparable to the latter's monthly ROE.

One big advantage the scalper has is that he builds up a trading history, and therefore statistical validity, much more quickly: more practise can accelerate the learning curve, and also the opportunities for compounding.

Nubcake's comments make sense to me, namely that (due to differing agendas, regulatory restrictions, inertia, sheer size, .....) comparing institutional and retail returns is meaningless. I'd even say that all comparison is meaningless, because (due to the myriad of variables: proficiency, trade risk and frequency, implementation, capitalization, psychology, ....) one trader's ROE has no bearing on what another might be capable of achieving.

For me, TA-based trading is a game, at least in this sense: patterns appear continuously on my monitor, and my mission is to find non-randomness, and translate this into a workable strategy. The more successfully I'm able to do this, the greater my edge. It is simply me versus a giant, anonymous, inscrutable pattern generator. Whatever other individuals might be doing gets absorbed into the patterns, and is therefore effectively irrelevant; moreover, their performance has no bearing on my own outcomes.

Anyway, I'm starting to repeat my earlier posts, so I'll exit the thread now. Thanks for the discussion; I enjoyed it.
  • #259
  • May 6, 2011 1:13am May 6, 2011 1:13am
Quoting hanover
As I see it, the key lies in whether it's possible to scalp profitably on the shortest TFs, where spread has relatively greater effect, and there is arguably more noise. If - and this is the crux of the matter - a scalper can attain a similar (net) profit factor to a position trader, then, everything else (e.g. risk per trade) being equal, the former's daily ROE will be ballpark comparable to the latter's monthly ROE.
Good post. I think the MAJOR disadvantage for scalpers on low time-frames are the trading costs (spread, commission & slippage). I actually tested out quite a few strategies that work out pretty well on high time-frames but perform miserably on the lower time-frames only because of these trading costs.
I think, if a trading strategy should work out on the very low time-frames then it should have a really high win/loss ratio + high profit factor. Otherwise trading costs will just kill the system.
  • #260
  • Edited 1:21am May 6, 2011 1:19am | Edited 1:21am
Quoting Custos
Good post. I think the MAJOR disadvantage for scalpers on low time-frames are the trading costs (spread, commission & slippage). I actually tested out quite a few strategies that work out pretty well on high time-frames but perform miserably on the lower time-frames only because of these trading costs.
I think, if a trading strategy should work out on the very low time-frames then it should have a really high win/loss ratio + high profit factor. Otherwise trading costs will just kill the system.
which is another way of saying something similar to what i said about 2 years ago (give or take). it was along the lines of if you remove the spread and have a profitable strategy then it stands to reason that there is a balance point where the spread starts to rob too much profit and the movements attempted to be captured must be expanded to accommodate. If you can find the tipping point of a strategy between frequency/range versus the spread then surely you can look to start maximizing the returns. doing 100 trades a day and being robbed blind by the spread is pointless, but so is doing 1 trade a week just to avoid spread costs.

the happy middle-ground where frequency equates to profits.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
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