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  • #801
  • May 4, 2011 3:31pm May 4, 2011 3:31pm
I'll buy at ~1.0685.

First Target: around 1.0870

Let's see...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #802
  • May 4, 2011 3:39pm May 4, 2011 3:39pm
As mentioned earlier we are playing with fire here. Looking at the weekly price has come back into its long term trend channel (over 10 years old).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd weekly.gif Size: 23 KB


On the hourly price has effortlessly cut trough the EMA 200 line and never looked back. Right now price is in the middle of nowhere, just flip a coin, its about the same.

Good luck.
  • #803
  • May 4, 2011 3:50pm May 4, 2011 3:50pm
Finally we get a overdue correction in AUD and already many are jumping in buying it with out giving it time ?
Guess what.. those who have been short in AUD trying to pick tops and continously been stopped out are now long.

The smart move is to stand aside and wait for the clearer signal.
Today 1.0670-00 support 1.0795-1.0830 resistance if you have to play.
My tech head suggesting possible H&S forming for a down move towards 1.04 1.05 area early days yet however.
  • #804
  • May 4, 2011 4:16pm May 4, 2011 4:16pm
Ive got price sitting just above a longer term fib 50% and 19.1% (support) from a more recent fib, suggesting at least a pause as its doing now, and possibly a bounce. I thought thats what we would have earlier at around 1.0815 where i longed but it wasnt good for much. I dont know if were bottoming out here or not, but possibly... May be slow for a bit given news coming out but I trade retracements so if Im gonna get in, i need to do it pretty soon!
  • #805
  • May 4, 2011 5:53pm May 4, 2011 5:53pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
As mentioned earlier we are playing with fire here. Looking at the weekly price has come back into its long term trend channel (over 10 years old).

Attachment

On the hourly price has effortlessly cut trough the EMA 200 line and never looked back. Right now price is in the middle of nowhere, just flip a coin, its about the same.

Good luck.
what will happen reversal trend in the AU,,?
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #806
  • May 4, 2011 6:22pm May 4, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting andelumut
what will happen reversal trend in the AU,,?
Plenty of time.. just sit back, relax and wait for the clearer picture.
Sometimes you make more money not trading than you do impulsively "having to trade".
Plenty of moths out there flying close to the naked flame..
  • #807
  • May 4, 2011 6:38pm May 4, 2011 6:38pm
Wow big drop, almost took me out. I was seconds away from closing my long too...

1.07 area should hold. We'll most likely see 1.09 again...
  • #808
  • May 4, 2011 7:00pm May 4, 2011 7:00pm
Quoting evelee8
Short Term Trading:
Long @ 1.0807 - TP 1.0860 for 53 pips.

Graph and technical indicator show the sign of reverse at 1.0800 within 1-hour time frame.

Good luck to all traders.
Updates:
Closed - Long @ 1.0807 - TP 1.0860 for 53 pips.

Portfolio:
Short-term: Long @ 1.0790 TP 1.0890 no SL. I still can see the potential cross line @ 1.0900.
Even though Aussie look bearish now..
Mid-term: Long @ 1.0478

However - the aussie rake hike should not be so soon due to the disappointment in the retail sales.
  • #809
  • May 4, 2011 7:02pm May 4, 2011 7:02pm
Quoting zipfur
Wow big drop, almost took me out. I was seconds away from closing my long too...

1.07 area should hold. We'll most likely see 1.09 again...
Disagree. There seem to be more room to the downside. 1.09 is unlikely again IMHO.
  • #810
  • May 4, 2011 7:10pm May 4, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting Fmfx
Disagree. There seem to be more room to the downside. 1.09 is unlikely again IMHO.

Hi there Fmfx, what do you base the downslide in the Aussie on?
  • #811
  • May 4, 2011 7:14pm May 4, 2011 7:14pm
Quoting andelumut
what will happen reversal trend in the AU,,?
No idea, but according to my charts (lowest time frame I look at is 1hr) we are at untested price levels.
So for me a no go at the moment.

Cheers
  • #812
  • May 5, 2011 2:38pm May 5, 2011 2:38pm
Levels to watch let's the test begin.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd daily.gif Size: 25 KB


If this uptrend was genuine we should see some of the mayor players step in.

Good luck.
  • #813
  • May 5, 2011 3:46pm May 5, 2011 3:46pm
Nice flush out of longs as many jumped in too quick trying to pick a base.
What were they thinking?
Today if you have to play 1.0500 /1.0630.. Mkt slightly oversold so downside shud be limited..
Again for me I will stand aside and let the dust settle.
Choppy sessions ahead...
  • #814
  • May 5, 2011 4:19pm May 5, 2011 4:19pm
note: im not a full time trader; just play for fun with the goal to someday trade for real. so do put too much into this; just my attempt to track my progress as a technical trader :-)

NAB says 1.08 by june, 1.05 by late summer, and 1.02 by end of year.

here are my charts.

feel free to comment; always looking for advice from the pros :-)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd1.PNG Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd2.PNG Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd3.PNG Size: 36 KB
  • #815
  • May 5, 2011 4:28pm May 5, 2011 4:28pm
Well im not quite sure if its the bottom or not... but we have come off previous S/R, a bear fib target and 19.1 support of previous long run, so its not a bad bounce point...
  • #816
  • May 5, 2011 4:51pm May 5, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
note: im not a full time trader; just play for fun with the goal to someday trade for real. so do put too much into this; just my attempt to track my progress as a technical trader :-)

NAB says 1.08 by june, 1.05 by late summer, and 1.02 by end of year.

here are my charts.

feel free to comment; always looking for advice from the pros :-)

Good stuff.

Firstly I wouldnt worry about NAB.. Trying to pick seasonal targets is a mugs game.
Too many distorting world factors...
  • #817
  • May 5, 2011 5:14pm May 5, 2011 5:14pm
thanx.

if this is the case, a strong retrace could bring it down to about 0.95 (high in 2008)?


Quoting lasty
Good stuff.

Firstly I wouldnt worry about NAB.. Trying to pick seasonal targets is a mugs game.
Too many distorting world factors...
  • #818
  • May 5, 2011 5:31pm May 5, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
thanx.

if this is the case, a strong retrace could bring it down to about 0.95 (high in 2008)?
I wouldnt rule out anything in these markets..
This week was a correctional one.. It started looking ominous on Monday when Silver took a dive which triggered a few minds about taking some profits. The smart players anyway.

The AUD/USD up trend is still intact at this stage.
A few more sessions are needed before the dust settles. Unless you have to play good luck but the sensibile option is to stand aside until a clearer direction resumes.
  • #819
  • May 5, 2011 6:31pm May 5, 2011 6:31pm
Sonofabitch i was right and i was too late to get to it
  • #820
  • May 5, 2011 6:48pm May 5, 2011 6:48pm
Quoting Jazznos
Sonofabitch i was right and i was too late to get to it
To get what? stopped out later on
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