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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,241
  • May 4, 2011 2:13pm May 4, 2011 2:13pm
Look at the 4hr e/u. How a VSA trader doesn't see that as a probable top is beyond me. K.i.s.s. Huge pin rejection of new highs on VERY high volume, and trending down from there. 5 min shows no demands since then as well in the 1.4860 area.
  • #19,242
  • May 4, 2011 2:39pm May 4, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting Clifton
Look at the 4hr e/u. How a VSA trader doesn't see that as a probable top is beyond me. K.i.s.s. Huge pin rejection of new highs on VERY high volume, and trending down from there. 5 min shows no demands since then as well in the 1.4860 area.
Key word: Possible. Sure looks like supply, but I would like further confirmation before I would take any short.

Could just be a retracement before continuing up, but who knows with NFP on friday. Infact some good volume came in on quite a few pairs (4H)

My eyes are peeled tho, thats for sure. Id post a pic, but my limit was reached.
  • #19,243
  • May 4, 2011 2:57pm May 4, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting Lowell83
Key word: Possible. Sure looks like supply, but I would like further confirmation before I would take any short.

Could just be a retracement before continuing up, but who knows with NFP on friday. Infact some good volume came in on quite a few pairs (4H)

My eyes are peeled tho, thats for sure. Id post a pic, but my limit was reached.
Well..you say possible, I say probable lol. Slight difference. The point is though, I'm considering that as my background and looking to short with entries confirmed by smaller time frames. Right now it's a short off 1.4850 after ND. Already locked BE. I expect about 70 pips from it if I can manage to stay in. Not worried about Friday, it's only wed.

On the other hand, you're probably on the safe side waiting for more confirmation..but for me it's a go.
  • #19,244
  • May 4, 2011 3:46pm May 4, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting Clifton
Look at the 4hr e/u. How a VSA trader doesn't see that as a probable top is beyond me. K.i.s.s. Huge pin rejection of new highs on VERY high volume, and trending down from there. 5 min shows no demands since then as well in the 1.4860 area.
I don't think there's been denials or confirmations of the current 'top' by anyone. Volume yes was surprisingly high into that top, and the daily has printed another prominent pin bar.

Selling was no doubt the game from the top - 1.488 looked like the cap, but it did a surprising 70 pips beyond that, and that perhaps was the EORM. IMO it's stopped at an odd point, and 1.5 is not far off, nor is 1.51. Bear in mind one of the factors that's gotten us here is the basic destruction of the USD, which has happened infrequently in history; for now, everyone is paying lip service to a strong dollar, including the EU officials, who can't say the euro is too high, so instead they are all coordinated in saying "we too want and need a strong dollar" - but no one is listening, and the powers that be are wildly diversifying into other currencies.

But the bullishness remains intact IMO - in fact we can fall a few hundred pips and still be in spec for new highs - I suppose it depends if you have positions from the low 1.40's - it's all relative, and calling the top is next to impossible.

Part of today's lack of demand is tied to the S&P progress, but also the likelihood of no ECB rate increase. We might test 1.485/4875 in the next hours, and then possible downside of a 100+ pips. It will be key to see what smart money does and how far they let it go, since the NFP projection is poor, so we could see a down day for Thursday, but then an upwards recovery for Friday, either before NFP or maybe after, if the numbers fall as expected.

Here's an ECB related linky in case it helps anyone: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/...ks/2011/04/29/
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  • #19,245
  • May 4, 2011 3:52pm May 4, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting Clifton
Well..you say possible, I say probable lol. Slight difference. The point is though, I'm considering that as my background and looking to short with entries confirmed by smaller time frames. Right now it's a short off 1.4850 after ND. Already locked BE. I expect about 70 pips from it if I can manage to stay in. Not worried about Friday, it's only wed.

On the other hand, you're probably on the safe side waiting for more confirmation..but for me it's a go.
So you called a top but are only looking for 70 pips? You said that you don't know how a VSA trader doesn't see a probable top... well for one a VSA trader or any good trader for that matter isn't interested in calling or picking tops and bottoms. A downmove that started after London closed and after more than the ADR was met doesn't constitute a top. Profit taking. Well at least you see the demand zone at 4780 and I assume that's were 70 pips TP came from. Also note that price has yet been able to break down through the daily open / DPP line.

Are we due for a nice retrace... sure but a top? Don't see it but I also don't care one way or the other. Will make money and take trades long or short.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,246
  • May 4, 2011 4:02pm May 4, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting Lowell83
Excellent, I appreciate the Input.
Lowell and others, I should have also posted the link I used to use for the S&P500 cash market before I had broker access: if you can find a space on your monitor(s) and leave a smaller window of this up as you trade the NY timeframe euro, it can be helpful towards getting a feel for possible correlations; coupled with a auto-refresh of say 5-10 seconds, it will automatically update.

S&P 500 index live chart from Yahoo.

This link should plot both the S&P and EURUSD on the same chart, for comparison.
  • #19,247
  • May 4, 2011 7:22pm May 4, 2011 7:22pm
Quoting pres78
So you called a top but are only looking for 70 pips? You said that you don't know how a VSA trader doesn't see a probable top... well for one a VSA trader or any good trader for that matter isn't interested in calling or picking tops and bottoms. A downmove that started after London closed and after more than the ADR was met doesn't constitute a top. Profit taking. Well at least you see the demand zone at 4780 and I assume that's were 70 pips TP came from. Also note that price has yet been able to break down through the daily open / DPP line....
Correct, I trade intraday along with the background. Background tells me shorts are safer, and yes..target is a demand zone. Will it break below that zone? My guess is yes and will look to hold some of my short if I don't see buyers. I hope that is more clear for you now.

"Will make money and take trades long or short" ..ok but I trade along with the background, as I see it.
  • #19,248
  • May 4, 2011 7:34pm May 4, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting Clifton
Correct, I trade intraday along with the background. Background tells me shorts are safer, and yes..target is a demand zone. Will it break below that zone? My guess is yes and will look to hold some of my short if I don't see buyers. I hope that is more clear for you now.

"Will make money and take trades long or short" ..ok but I trade along with the background, as I see it.
We all trade with background and if you trade intraday that means possibly going long and short in the same day so I don't know why you highlighted that one line from my post.

Oh yes you made things much clearer for me... crystal clear in fact.

Best of luck in picking your tops and bottoms.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,249
  • May 4, 2011 7:52pm May 4, 2011 7:52pm
Quoting pres78
We all trade with background and if you trade intraday that means possibly going long and short in the same day so I don't know why you highlighted that one line from my post.

Oh yes you made things much clearer for me... crystal clear in fact.

Best of luck in picking your tops and bottoms.
I'm not picking a top. Larger TF shows weakness, smaller TF gave ND for entry. This is VSA. So far this trade has seen 45 pips profit with no draw down. Target is demand zone. Fine, you don't agree.

Last time I posted my analysis you took issue as well. That trade went to my target as I posted. If everytime I post an opinion you are going to "correct" me in that sarcastic tone then perhaps you should start your own thread. I'm here to share and learn, not for a pissing contest.
  • #19,250
  • May 4, 2011 8:11pm May 4, 2011 8:11pm
Quoting Clifton
I'm not picking a top. Larger TF shows weakness, smaller TF gave ND for entry. This is VSA. So far this trade has seen 45 pips profit with no draw down. Target is demand zone. Fine, you don't agree.

Last time I posted my analysis you took issue as well. That trade went to my target as I posted. If everytime I post an opinion you are going to "correct" me in that sarcastic tone then perhaps you should start your own thread. I'm here to share and learn, not for a pissing contest.
"How a VSA trader doesn't see that as a probable top is beyond me."

Your words not mine. Also I never once said I agreed or disagreed with your short.

Quoting pres78
What do you mean weakness off yesterday's high? Alos be careful taking a trade off of just stopping volume as this can quickly be reversed and show up as strength. Need much more SOW in the background and a test, UT, ND, NS etc... for entry.

IMHO
So is this me correcting you? Strange I thought I was simply offering up my opinion which is what we do here and is how we learn. Read it again... do you detect any sarcasm? Nope. My reply to your post calling a top... yes that was sarcastic. VSA is not about picking tops and cattle calls don't help anyone learn. Post your short and why you took it.

Start my own thread? Nah... no need.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,251
  • May 4, 2011 8:26pm May 4, 2011 8:26pm
Quoting pres78
"How a VSA trader doesn't see that as a probable top is beyond me."

[color=black][font=Verdana]Your words not mine....
Yeah, the chart shows that it's probably a top for now..lot's of supply. There's nothing wrong with me saying that.

You don't disagree with the trade, but you call it picking a top, which you disagree with? Please, get your story straight.

No cattle calls, I gave my reasons. Please just put me on your ignore list. I will do the same right now. Peace.
  • #19,252
  • May 4, 2011 8:32pm May 4, 2011 8:32pm
Quoting Beljevina
I don't think there's been denials or confirmations of the current 'top' by anyone. Volume yes was surprisingly high into that top, and the daily has printed another prominent pin bar.

Selling was no doubt the game from the top - 1.488 looked like the cap, but it did a surprising 70 pips beyond that, and that perhaps was the EORM. IMO it's stopped at an odd point, and 1.5 is not far off, nor is 1.51. Bear in mind one of the factors that's gotten us here is the basic destruction of the USD, which has happened infrequently in history; for...
Long term I am bullish as well. I appreciate your point of view and informative post very much, thanks.
  • #19,253
  • May 4, 2011 8:33pm May 4, 2011 8:33pm
Quoting Clifton
Yeah, the chart shows that it's probably a top for now..lot's of supply. There's nothing wrong with me saying that.

You don't disagree with the trade, but you call it picking a top, which you disagree with? Please, get your story straight.

No cattle calls, I gave my reasons. Please just put me on your ignore list. I will do the same right now. Peace.
You haven't been here since April 1st and you come in with a shot at all of the VSA traders.

"How a VSA trader doesn't see that as a probable top is beyond me."

That is like you are calling out all of the VSA traders in this thread saying that they aren't real VSA traders if they don't see a probable top and well that is just beyond you.

Not a great first post to come back into the thread with after such a long absence. I called it picking a top because you called it a "probable top"... see the word top in there. This has nothing to do with the trade it is all about your first post today.

Go ahead and ignore me... better yet take off for another month or six.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,254
  • May 4, 2011 9:07pm May 4, 2011 9:07pm
this 12 hour is very interesting

TONS of supply hit the market today , largest volume on a 12 hour in months

now to see if that 4780 area is tested again and hold or breaks .... potential retrace zones if it does are 4650 and 4500
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,255
  • May 4, 2011 9:57pm May 4, 2011 9:57pm
So the tradeguider folks have released a new VSA book...

http://www.tradeguider.com/education...tion/book.aspx

Anyone have it yet? How is it?
  • #19,256
  • May 4, 2011 10:16pm May 4, 2011 10:16pm
ordered my copy , . Out on may 15

Quoting lolpie
So the tradeguider folks have released a new VSA book...

http://www.tradeguider.com/education...tion/book.aspx

Anyone have it yet? How is it?
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #19,257
  • May 5, 2011 12:51am May 5, 2011 12:51am
Quoting lolpie
So the tradeguider folks have released a new VSA book...

http://www.tradeguider.com/education...tion/book.aspx

Anyone have it yet? How is it?
been ordered it since april.
dunno if they'll delay it to 15 may.
the price's still $99 tough. potential no demand?
  • #19,258
  • May 5, 2011 3:06am May 5, 2011 3:06am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

Does anybody know about the documentation provided on www.tradingpsychologyedge.com about Wyckoff:

There are several packages:

Chart Reading Mastery
Wyckoff in the modern markets I & II
The Wyckoff Spring
The Wyckoff Upthrust

Is it worth the price? Is it bringing something more than VSA?
No reply about my last post?
  • #19,259
  • May 5, 2011 3:55am May 5, 2011 3:55am
Quoting dvarrin
No reply about my last post?
In this thread is wyckoff-seminarium videos and he is teaching there and it is good stuff. Education is always good.
  • #19,260
  • May 5, 2011 5:07am May 5, 2011 5:07am
158 pips today!!! I can't believe it!
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