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vsa with Malcolm

  • #19,221
  • May 4, 2011 6:28am May 4, 2011 6:28am
Quoting ChinaWombat
gbpusd is pretty 49/51 % even so trade ranges until it skews one way or the other...
I believe GU-H4 goes up one more time and then we get trendchange, that is what I believe, we will see.
  • #19,222
  • May 4, 2011 7:04am May 4, 2011 7:04am
Quoting f451
I've had a hard time decide which way EU was going to break - finally decided that both distribution and (re-accumulation) are happening in current range - so my bias is for a break long.

Seems to be increased volume and high churn as price approach the top of the range, but also increased volume and longer tails as price approaches the bottom of the range.

What do you all think?

cheers
f451
Maybe UT next.
  • #19,223
  • May 4, 2011 7:07am May 4, 2011 7:07am
Quoting rocketor
what i want to know is since the tick volume is controversial in forex, is it ok
to make the analysis on futures?? like 6e??
i noticed the price move similar as eu and according to williams futers will
reflect the price ( and we have real wolume).

for example look at this chart looks like price doesnt willing to go up
volume decrease. so is it right to look for short on spot fx?
Tick volume in spot is not controversial - only those who aren't in the know and don't understand it and can't apply it will tell you otherwise - a decent broker reflecting a good liquidity provider servicing different type of trading clients is what you want, or, the GTIS eSignal 200+ feed (which is so very close in the relational volume bar-to-bar) as many brand name MT4 brokers.

I use 6E and spot EU volume for cross analysis all the time. When one hits a trendline or channel barrier (and perhaps the other does not yet), it 'seems' to pause both. When one hits a POC, it seems to pause the other. When one hits a prev high/low or close/open, it pauses the other, but not always - it's a matter of judging the strength of the directional move, and trying to determine which will prevail.

Ultimately, they are very separate things; when BIS is selling spot, I don't believe they are taking parallel action on 6E. But I frequently look to SOs and upthrusts of large stopping volume, and use it to judge a positional entry on where it occurred, or sometimes the other. It takes practice and the ultimate teacher, screen time. And, like everything, it is not guaranteed.

Here we see a whack of 6E volume came in, yet the spot (and 6E) close with strength and may likely blow through it (and, I am not saying it is all selling - interesting that news was upcoming shortly) - how far is perhaps a more relevant question, but remember, if someone is selling at a certain point, buyers can always come along and push it up further, easily. And afterall, this is the magical do-no-wrong-the-USD-sucks euro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E 06-11 (5 Min) 5_4_2011.png Size: 106 KB
  • #19,224
  • May 4, 2011 8:19am May 4, 2011 8:19am
Does that EU-M30 look like EORM?
  • #19,225
  • May 4, 2011 8:25am May 4, 2011 8:25am
Quoting f451
I've had a hard time decide which way EU was going to break - finally decided that both distribution and (re-accumulation) are happening in current range - so my bias is for a break long.

Seems to be increased volume and high churn as price approach the top of the range, but also increased volume and longer tails as price approaches the bottom of the range.
Definitely distribution followed by re-accumulation. LONG!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU-a-litte-later.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #19,226
  • May 4, 2011 8:30am May 4, 2011 8:30am
Quoting juhanimi
Does that EU-M30 look like EORM?
Too early to call IMO - we have news in 30 min. Aside from good news and bad news seemingly making the euro go up, we're at 150 pip ADR, and my sense is if it's not a 120/130 ADR day, the other frequent option is 200/220 pips. The USD continues to remain unloved - perhaps moreso and semeingly quicker this morning. And, almost regardless of the US news result, if equities rocket on USD devaluation OR on good news, it will pull the euro with it - 1.4956ish first and then a possible 1.5. 1.49 has good bounce power, and, is a 2 days ago high, that usually gives good bounce potential. And, with no news to seemingly drag the euro down, it will drift up - there were signs of NS earlier.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,227
  • May 4, 2011 9:03am May 4, 2011 9:03am
Thanks B.
  • #19,228
  • May 4, 2011 9:15am May 4, 2011 9:15am
Does that EU-H1 look like EORM?
  • #19,229
  • May 4, 2011 9:19am May 4, 2011 9:19am
Quoting juhanimi
Does that EU-H1 look like EORM?
Nope its not however there is supply there.
  • #19,230
  • May 4, 2011 9:47am May 4, 2011 9:47am
Okey, lets think that EU-H1 had a EORM and that was a long accumulation.
How far it will drop?
  • #19,231
  • May 4, 2011 9:50am May 4, 2011 9:50am
I meant: long distribution.
  • #19,232
  • May 4, 2011 10:10am May 4, 2011 10:10am
Quoting juhanimi
Okey, lets think that EU-H1 had a EORM and that was a long accumulation.
How far it will drop?
Previous strength and presumed buying is still present - we had obvious profit taking at the peak there and the S&P's struggles have kept us down.

Am a little surprised we've come down 50% from Asia's rise, but this has potential for an upwards rise, but again, the S&P still seems to be struggling. Yen strength on the heels of crappy US news has been an issue too. Staying in this area - above the 50% with a few small range M15 bars is usually good; a dip lower opens 484 and 38.2% as well as threatens the 48243 open. But with the lunch hour coming up, there should be a if nothing else fakey upwards move. Gotta watch the S&P and risk sentiment though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #19,233
  • May 4, 2011 10:19am May 4, 2011 10:19am
Would you mind explaining the relationship between the Euro and the S&P

I loosely watch the ES, but never thought they were connected somehow.
  • #19,234
  • May 4, 2011 10:19am May 4, 2011 10:19am
Not 1.45?
  • #19,235
  • May 4, 2011 10:23am May 4, 2011 10:23am
I don't think EU knows was EORM is anymore... up, then profit taking, down to build longs and up, profit taking, then down to build longs and so on... we have seen this at several areas on the way up. We spend some time ranging with dips into a zone like 4060 awhile back (and now 4780ish)being bought heavily until they build enough strength to carry on upward.

1.5 is a big level and we are now in that 2009 zone which toped out at 5140 before a deep drop into 1800...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,236
  • May 4, 2011 10:26am May 4, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Lowell83
Would you mind explaining the relationship between the Euro and the S&P

I loosely watch the ES, but never thought they were connected somehow.
It's all about risk sentiment. EU does better to the upside when stocks follow suit. A drop in stocks doesn't always mean a drop in EU but it will often keep it contained and ranging. EU is considered a risk asset like stocks. If people arent buying stocks then they are selling off an usually buying back into US dollars which gives the US a boost or at least a foot hold againt the risk currencies.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #19,237
  • May 4, 2011 10:26am May 4, 2011 10:26am
EU-H4 has top reversal or 2 bar UT.
  • #19,238
  • May 4, 2011 10:31am May 4, 2011 10:31am
Quoting Lowell83
Would you mind explaining the relationship between the Euro and the S&P

I loosely watch the ES, but never thought they were connected somehow.
The expected correlation - when ES or EU specific news isn't being heeded - is for EU & S&P to head in the same direction, based on the same risk on or risk off sentiment. And usually, as the USD heads down and becomes unloved, big money moves into buying equities, and diversifying into non-USD pairs.

Again, these are the basic/expected correlations, but correlations are never guaranteed nor can they be easily predicted. But, throw in commodities, and the relationships/pull becomes more 'confusing.'
  • #19,239
  • May 4, 2011 10:46am May 4, 2011 10:46am
Excellent, I appreciate the Input.
  • #19,240
  • May 4, 2011 1:01pm May 4, 2011 1:01pm
I've searched around but haven't yet found something I am sure is already out there. Does someone have a bettervolume indicator will sound and email alerts for MT4? Would appreciate any help. Thanks.
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