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  • #19,201
  • May 3, 2011 7:35pm May 3, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting PipPipPip
good evening all. came back for a pretty good break.

volume in pre asia looks normal compare to yesterday, EXCEPT for this hour- volume has slowed/stopped (ND - due to partial profits from us open).

now until london.
can some one please light up the eurusd?
price has been back here for almost 6 days. looks like possible POC.

I guess I will be holding back on a trade until NFP.
  • #19,202
  • May 3, 2011 9:58pm May 3, 2011 9:58pm
There were some questions about KRBs a while back. I am certainly not an authority on them but would like to add my 2 cents.

First it should be stated that KRBs are not VSA. KRBs involve the open and VSA does not look at the open. Volume is also not an issue with KRBs. Increasing volume is powerful, but so is decreasing volume less than the previous two intervals. That means KRBs to the upside can be Shake Outs and or hidden Tests, and conversely, they can be Hidden Up Thrusts and Trap up Moves to name a few.

Also note that because we are dealing with the open, they are much easier to see with OHCL bars of Japanese Candlesticks. I had to use candles while I was dealing with my volume issues and I remembered how much I like them. More than the candles, I think I like the KRBs . Then again, WRB analysis is so much easier with candles. But I digress.

TYPES OF KEY REVERSAL BARS

1. Key Reversal Bar type I
2. Outside Key Reversal Bar type I
3. Key Reversal Bar type II
4. Outside Key Reversal Bar type II

Again, I am not an expert so there may certainly be more. I am always looking for more. If anybody knows of more, please do not hesitate to share.

I am really more concerned with type I KRBs.

1. Key Reversal Bar type I (upside): This bar Opens lower than the previous bar's close, makes a lower low, closes higher than both its open and the previous bar's close, and does not make a higher high. It's even better when the low of this bar is not only lower than the previous bar (a requirement), but also lower than the low of the bar two intervals prior.

The first chart shows a KRB type I.

For a downside reversal, it would be opposite. The bar would open higher than the previous bar's close, make a higher high, close lower than both its open and the previous bar's close, and not make a lower low.

2. Outside Key Reversal Bar type I (downside): The only difference here is that the bar will make both a higher high and a lower low. That's what makes it an outside bar.

The second chart shows an OKRB type I.

The upside reversal is of course the opposite.
Notice that the first KRB is a Shake Out and the second, the OKRB, is a Trap Up Move.

Type IIs: the main difference with these type is that an upside reversal would not open lower, it would open higher. Everything else would be the same. Thus a Key Reversal Bar type II (upside) would open higher, make a lower low, close higher than its open and the previous bar's close and not make a higher high.

** Note that we are looking at either higher opens or lower opens. An equal open means nothing. **

This should be enough to get you started on KRBs if you are so inclined.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #19,203
  • May 4, 2011 1:08am May 4, 2011 1:08am
Hi,

I've a question about what can help us to guess if a trading range is accumulation or distribution. In Wyckoff Schematics it is written that early in phase B, it is not possible to say, but as the trading range unfolds, supply becomes weaker and demand stronger.

It is also written that the penetrations or lack of penetrations of the trading range enable us to judge the quantity and quality of supply and demand.

1) How do we see that supply or demand becomes weaker?

I guess for supply to become weaker, we look for low volume low spread bars when coming to the trading range support. Is that right? Or should we see high volume because the Smart Money is accumulation near the bottom of the range?

2) How can the penetration or lack of penetration help us? Because if there is a breakout upwards, it could be an upthrust or a real breakout.

Some people see a trading range and they can say: "It's accumulation!". How do we know that. I know we are never 100% sure, but what can help us to guess?
  • #19,204
  • May 4, 2011 1:34am May 4, 2011 1:34am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

I've a question about what can help us to guess if a trading range is accumulation or distribution. In Wyckoff Schematics it is written that early in phase B, it is not possible to say, but as the trading range unfolds, supply becomes weaker and demand stronger.

It is also written that the penetrations or lack of penetrations of the trading range enable us to judge the quantity and quality of supply and demand.

1) How do we see that supply or demand becomes weaker?

I guess for supply to become weaker, we look for low volume low spread bars...
this doesn't answer your question but watching gu 15m chart we are seeing a volume tussle here for last 24 hours which looks like accumulation but i could be wrong... now seeing a shakeout and a possible low volume test...
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #19,205
  • May 4, 2011 1:48am May 4, 2011 1:48am
Quoting ChinaWombat
this doesn't answer your question but watching gu 15m chart we are seeing a volume tussle here for last 24 hours which looks like accumulation but i could be wrong... now seeing a shakeout and a possible low volume test...
I think it's more a test than a shakeout. But what makes you see accumulation? What are you looking at to think like that?
  • #19,206
  • May 4, 2011 2:02am May 4, 2011 2:02am
Quoting HiddenGap

** Note that we are looking at either higher opens or lower opens. An equal open means nothing. **

This should be enough to get you started on KRBs if you are so inclined.
Thank for the brilliant explanation of KRB's. From what you have written I asume that this is not applicable to FOREX because bars open when the previous ones close in 99%.

Am I right?

Les_Paul
  • #19,207
  • May 4, 2011 2:08am May 4, 2011 2:08am
Quoting dvarrin
I think it's more a test than a shakeout. But what makes you see accumulation? What are you looking at to think like that?
this isn't VSA but look to the left on an hourly or 4 hourly chart and 1.6430 is a key pivot, prior resistance now support. I know we are a little away from there 1.6453 the current low...but I think it's accumulation...the effort to move down has paused here, and seeing sideways action, so considering the down move yesterday we have seen effort, but little result...but that could change.

the low volume test, after the shakeout I think is a wycoff spring but like you i'm still new to this..
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Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #19,208
  • Edited 4:30am May 4, 2011 3:35am | Edited 4:30am
Hi all.
I am learning the vsa concept for the past two weeks.
right now im only trading eu with this method.

what i want to know is since the tick volume is controversial in forex, is it ok
to make the analysis on futures?? like 6e??
i noticed the price move similar as eu and according to williams futers will
reflect the price ( and we have real wolume).

for example look at this chart looks like price doesnt willing to go up
volume decrease. so is it right to look for short on spot fx?
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  • #19,209
  • May 4, 2011 4:41am May 4, 2011 4:41am
Quoting rocketor
Hi all.
I am learning the vsa concept for the past two weeks.
right now im only trading eu with this method.

what i want to know is since the tick volume is controversial in forex, is it ok
to make the analysis on futures?? like 6e??
i noticed the price move similar as eu and according to williams futers will
reflect the price ( and we have real wolume).

for example look at this chart looks like price doesnt willing to go up
volume decrease. so is it right to look for short on spot fx?

Some of that low volume is due to the string of bank holidays we've had in the uk, so trade accordingly
  • #19,210
  • May 4, 2011 5:12am May 4, 2011 5:12am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

I've a question about what can help us to guess if a trading range is accumulation or distribution. In Wyckoff Schematics it is written that early in phase B, it is not possible to say, but as the trading range unfolds, supply becomes weaker and demand stronger.

It is also written that the penetrations or lack of penetrations of the trading range enable us to judge the quantity and quality of supply and demand.

1) How do we see that supply or demand becomes weaker?

I guess for supply to become weaker, we look for low volume low spread...
Only way is to study earlier acc`s, distr`s, re-acc`s and re-distr`s.
Check from H4 these phases and study from H1.
  • #19,211
  • May 4, 2011 5:38am May 4, 2011 5:38am
So, here is re-distribution.
Sometimes it is easy to see, what phase is going on and sometimes really difficult...
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  • #19,212
  • May 4, 2011 5:50am May 4, 2011 5:50am
Quoting juhanimi
Only way is to study earlier acc`s, distr`s, re-acc`s and re-distr`s.
Check from H4 these phases and study from H1.
Good idea

Thanks!
  • #19,213
  • May 4, 2011 5:52am May 4, 2011 5:52am
Quoting juhanimi
So, here is re-distribution.
Sometimes it is easy to see, what phase is going on and sometimes really difficult...
Why is it going up if it is re-distribution?
  • #19,214
  • May 4, 2011 5:54am May 4, 2011 5:54am
Quote
Some of that low volume is due to the string of bank holidays we've had in the uk, so trade accordingly

Thanks Naughty that was helpfull .
and what about making chart analysis from futures??
  • #19,215
  • May 4, 2011 5:57am May 4, 2011 5:57am
Quoting dvarrin
Why is it going up if it is re-distribution?
lol, yes, sorry. I am tired.
  • #19,216
  • May 4, 2011 6:04am May 4, 2011 6:04am
I've had a hard time decide which way EU was going to break - finally decided that both distribution and (re-accumulation) are happening in current range - so my bias is for a break long.

Seems to be increased volume and high churn as price approach the top of the range, but also increased volume and longer tails as price approaches the bottom of the range.

What do you all think?

cheers
f451
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  • #19,217
  • Edited 6:52am May 4, 2011 6:06am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting rocketor
Thanks Naughty that was helpfull .
and what about making chart analysis from futures??

this should help, yes futures volume is handy.
http://www.youtube.com/user/TradeGui...19/yHTanKQDDQo
  • #19,218
  • May 4, 2011 6:10am May 4, 2011 6:10am
Quoting f451
I've had a hard time decide which way EU was going to break - finally decided that both distribution and (re-accumulation) are happening in current range - so my bias is for a break long.

Seems to be increased volume and high churn as price approach the top of the range, but also increased volume and longer tails as price approaches the bottom of the range.

What do you all think?

cheers
f451
Still play in channel...

KG
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  • #19,219
  • May 4, 2011 6:23am May 4, 2011 6:23am
Quoting f451
I've had a hard time decide which way EU was going to break - finally decided that both distribution and (re-accumulation) are happening in current range - so my bias is for a break long.

Seems to be increased volume and high churn as price approach the top of the range, but also increased volume and longer tails as price approaches the bottom of the range.

What do you all think?

cheers
f451
I dont know. Like impossible to say if SM is just supporting price down in the channel to distribute more. I am just guessing for that to be accumulation, but that is just my guess.
  • #19,220
  • May 4, 2011 6:24am May 4, 2011 6:24am
Quoting f451
I've had a hard time decide which way EU was going to break - finally decided that both distribution and (re-accumulation) are happening in current range - so my bias is for a break long.

Seems to be increased volume and high churn as price approach the top of the range, but also increased volume and longer tails as price approaches the bottom of the range.

What do you all think?

cheers
f451
I tend to agree but must admit that it is frustrating sometimes trying to differentiate if dist or re-accum.... to help clarify my strategy i use a 'cheat sheet' and look at some of the bigger broker open positions information (oanda,dukas etc) to help work out which way to be, or not to be...
oanda has eurusd market 38% long, 62% short so looking for dips to buy...or an effort to rise opportunity, gbpusd is pretty even 49/51 % so trade ranges until it skews one way or the other...

it's only entry ratio's, not position volume, but that should even out over the accounts (i hope)
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
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