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  • #761
  • May 1, 2011 7:09pm May 1, 2011 7:09pm
Quoting VedantaTrade
I have to totally disagree. Interest rate expectations are what I would say being mis-priced by the markets at this time. Those charts show what is already priced in. I think you ll find in the not too distant future that when the bursting of the housing bubble in Oz takes hold, the next move in interest rates will be down. Also there are signs from China that the economy is slowing.

The market made the same mistake back in 2008, and it is doing it again. A big USD rally is coming. I have been saying it for a few weeks, and have been wrong so...
I completley agree. AUD ralied nearly 11 cents from 0.098 in a month. Realistic ?? i am holding AUD shorts for a while now. making big lossess hope fully short term . Also any tension in middle east/africa will pull the AUD like nothing else .Guddafi son is dead from attack - wait till some more disestars !!!Happy trading.
  • #762
  • May 1, 2011 7:50pm May 1, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting kenfen69
$1.10 and beyond..?
Well...there goes $1.10...just have to see about the beyond now.

Quoting Jade Gate
get a grip - Swannie's crystal ball and attendant politcal hyperbole isn't worth diddly-squat...
I have a grip, mate. Have done since first daily close above $1.0250. I mean absolutely no disrespect, but a very small percentage of traders the world over would have any knowledge that, "Swannie's crystal ball...isn't worth diddly-squat." But, when Reuters and BBerg terminals flash up unemployment of 4.5% ahead... 2+2= Rate Hikes...buy, buy, buy.

Position I'm holding is on a long term account, so I won't be retiring off this break of 1.10. Closed half of the position...moved stops to 1.0650.

All the best.
  • #763
  • May 1, 2011 8:04pm May 1, 2011 8:04pm
You need to watch UJ closely here, it has retraced to the 50.0 fib, as the carry trade unwinds this could get very ugly. The huge sell-off in silver this morning is a clear indication that risk appetite has gone.

AU has taken out the stops above 1.1000. 1.1010 was a nice place to short. The US session has control of the trading floor in this first session of the week. Their romanticism with the Aussie dollar is legendary. London/ Europe have a more sobering view.

Also watch the S&P futures, nice gap up begging to be filled when London delivers the probable reality check.
Attached Images
  • #764
  • May 1, 2011 8:26pm May 1, 2011 8:26pm
Quoting Jade Gate
You need to watch UJ closely here, it has retraced to the 50.0 fib, as the carry trade unwinds this could get very ugly. The huge sell-off in silver this morning is a clear indication that risk appetite has gone.

AU has taken out the stops above 1.1000. 1.1010 was a nice place to short. The US session has control of the trading floor in this first session of the week. Their romanticism with the Aussie dollar is legendary. London/ Europe have a more sobering view.

Also watch the S&P futures, nice gap up begging to be filled when London delivers...
Gone short AUD/USD looking for a breakdown. Respecting the uptrend I havent gone all in will sell more at 1.1050 and the obvious tech break of 1.0850.Pressure is building on weaker commodities which could be the first sign for the long awaited correction.
  • #765
  • May 1, 2011 8:28pm May 1, 2011 8:28pm
Quoting kenfen69
Crikey...

Been nice.

Good luck.
Don't be offended Kenfen. It's how we antipodeans like to talk (usually to each other). But people from other areas of the world interpret it incorrectly when spoken to them.

LOL Jade!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #766
  • May 1, 2011 8:37pm May 1, 2011 8:37pm
jade: house index is a good indicator for the economy.
but my feeling is the overseas aud buying has started a attack from 11009,
this first test seems very quiet and smooth, my guess is if it comes a drop , then range will be 11040--11060
  • #767
  • May 1, 2011 9:12pm May 1, 2011 9:12pm
Quoting Patience
Don't be offended Kenfen. It's how we antipodeans like to talk (usually to each other). But people from other areas of the world interpret it incorrectly when spoken to them.
Come on, madam...my skin is thicker than that!

Was just pointing out that it doesn't matter if Swan knows his arse from a hole in the ground...once that headline hit, $1.10 was inevitable. What it does now remains to be seen. Metals are well due a correction, but I'm not dumping yet...certainly not the physical.

Markets rarely move on local's perceptions of their politicians. Just felt like I pissed off an antipodean...and thread starter...with my post. Was going to cut my losses before the Aussie's across the street showed up at my door.
  • #768
  • May 1, 2011 9:57pm May 1, 2011 9:57pm
Quoting kenfen69
Come on, madam...my skin is thicker than that!

Was just pointing out that it doesn't matter if Swan knows his arse from a hole in the ground...once that headline hit, $1.10 was inevitable. What it does now remains to be seen. Metals are well due a correction, but I'm not dumping yet...certainly not the physical.

Markets rarely move on local's perceptions of their politicians. Just felt like I pissed off an antipodean...and thread starter...with my post. Was going to cut my losses before the Aussie's across the street showed up at my door....
With news of Osama bin laden reported dead.. USD shud be supported
  • #769
  • May 1, 2011 10:11pm May 1, 2011 10:11pm
Quoting lasty
With news of Osama bin laden reported dead.. USD shud be supported
Indeed...rabbit out of a hat there!

Moved my stops to just below 1.0850 now.
  • #770
  • May 2, 2011 11:04pm May 2, 2011 11:04pm
still stay on the sideline.
There is no strong support to Long But Short (even by technical indicator showing signal of Short).

Next event on the risk:
RBA Cash Rate and Rate Statement.
Market sentiment expected a hawkish Up.

On Focus:
NAB forecast Aussie to be 1.08 by end-Jun.
1.05 end Sep.
1.02 by end Year.
Aussie at above 1.10 clearly started to look expensive...
  • #771
  • May 3, 2011 12:05pm May 3, 2011 12:05pm
Another dip near 0850 and I will try a small long.... We shall see!!

Regards,
  • #772
  • May 3, 2011 1:27pm May 3, 2011 1:27pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Another dip near 0850 and I will try a small long.... We shall see!!

Regards,
Got long @ 0850.... target 1.0950. We'll see where she goes!

Regards,
  • #773
  • May 3, 2011 2:04pm May 3, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting kenfen69
Indeed...rabbit out of a hat there!

Moved my stops to just below 1.0850 now.
Remaining half stopped at 1.08385.
  • #774
  • May 3, 2011 3:27pm May 3, 2011 3:27pm
I don't think it made it in the major news, since i listen to the ABC radio, but China is taking steps to diversify from Aussie ore supplies, by up to 40% .
Biggest joker
  • #775
  • May 3, 2011 3:39pm May 3, 2011 3:39pm
I have a feeling that a major AUD reversal is in the works...
  • #776
  • May 3, 2011 4:21pm May 3, 2011 4:21pm
1.077 will be the next support if it break now; then 1.056. i think you could see it drop to 1.02; however, i dont see it going much below that with usd the way it is.
  • #777
  • May 3, 2011 4:26pm May 3, 2011 4:26pm
Price is heading back to the upper trend channel line on the weekly chart. According to my hourly chart we also have the 200EMA line at this price level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd weekly.gif Size: 22 KB


I have mentioned a few days ago in the other AUS thread that for the last decade price has respected this channel and corrected itself when needed. We likely will witness in the next few days if either the bulls can hold at present level or the bears can break it. I believe trading long or short right now is like playing with fire so for me I need to see any confirmation, either bullish to continue to go higher or bearish for a proper correction (retracement).
  • #778
  • May 3, 2011 5:42pm May 3, 2011 5:42pm
Interesting night-1.0850 was meant to be the magical number of a sell off.
Seen it break three times and no follow through.
Questions?
1. Was 1.0850 a BS pivot?
2. Is market still short?
3. Why when im positioned short for a sell off the market decides not to and had I been long it would have dropped like a stone.

  • #779
  • May 3, 2011 5:46pm May 3, 2011 5:46pm
Based on my attachment, AU is going correction before shooting up to 1.1 .
Wut do u think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold2.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #780
  • May 3, 2011 5:50pm May 3, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting lasty
Interesting night-1.0850 was meant to be the magical number of a sell off.
Seen it break three times and no follow through.
Questions?
1. Was 1.0850 a BS pivot?
2. Is market still short?
3. Why when im positioned short for a sell off the market decides not to and had I been long it would have dropped like a stone.


very nice spot for a long this is, in my opinion. i think till the end of the week it'll have hit new highs. kinda irritating movements meanwhile, though.
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