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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,621
  • May 2, 2011 1:28am May 2, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Vourvoul
Hey MaMood,

So do you pay the spread and extra commissions (if any) for "neutralizing" a position?

Thanks

Hi,

no, of course not.
I do not have anything to give away to my broker.

Most MT4 brokers, who offer that way of closing positions, are paying back the spread payed for the hedge (at least the brokerages, that are playing fair like MiG, VG, Alpari and many others ...).


All the best,
Niels
All the best,
Niels
  • #24,622
  • May 2, 2011 3:14am May 2, 2011 3:14am
Morning Freinds,

due to holidays it seems not to be a good trading day:
- very thin market
- very dynamic spreads

I Have stopped trading and will wait till NY opening.
Maybe the boyy are going to offer some pancakes or steaks later on ...

Taking exposures in a very thin market without opportunities, is just an other way of taking unneccesary risks ...

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,623
  • May 2, 2011 3:48am May 2, 2011 3:48am
Hi again,

cause nothing is going on outthere in the markets, I digged a little into my statictics. (BTW: I'm using this nice tool provided by FF: Trade Explorers. You can find it in the left hand menu, when you are logged in...)

Would be interesting to hear from some more guys their statistics. I know, no one likes to expose himself to the public,. But to be honest, I do not understand why. We are all in here to leran from each other. The best you can get is someone elses feedback. If you are doing bad and noone has the gut to tell it to you, what does it help in your developmant as a trader????

However - here are some parameters for April, that I want to share/compare with you:

Nmber of trades: 1.275

Win trades: 796
Loss trades: 351
BE trades: 128

Long trades: 653
Short trades: 622

Number of lots traded: 21.386 (= 2.1 Bln USD round turn)

Pips gained: 2.797 (raw pips!)
pips lost: 4.494 (raw pips!)
profit gained: 15.6%

I'm very curious to see especially your number of Lots traded.
Just want to see if I'm far off, because of my more or less hectic "BreakDance" Sytle.

Would be cool to see some statistics from you too.
But to be honest - I do not expect anything :-)

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,624
  • May 2, 2011 4:37am May 2, 2011 4:37am
Btw: For me it is very essential to have a "good broker" with tight spreads...

With more than 21.000 (Standard)lots traded, every pip more in spread (=10USD) is a huge difference for me.

Using fti's approach of trading, the broker is not that important to keep you in profit at all. One or 2 pips more spread will not turn fti's profitable trading style into a loosing one. But It costs you a lot of money ....
  • #24,625
  • May 2, 2011 5:05am May 2, 2011 5:05am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

cause nothing is going on outthere in the markets, I digged a little into my statictics. (BTW: I'm using this nice tool provided by FF: Trade Explorers. You can find it in the left hand menu, when you are logged in...)

Would be interesting to hear from some more guys their statistics. I know, no one likes to expose himself to the public,. But to be honest, I do not understand why. We are all in here to leran from each other. The best you can get is someone elses feedback. If you are doing bad and noone has the gut to tell it to you,...
hey Niels,

had to say firstly that I do not trade per Fti's method, so don't know if my figures does mean something for you.

Althought I'm from those guys who doesn't want to expose themselves to the public, I did post some of my statements in the past but now I'm more reticent when it comes doing it, but I may do an exception today

My turnover is around 4.5 millions

by thay way so your last blotter, congrats you have quite a big account there. mine is growing steady and sure but is not that big as yours.

and I'm currently myself in a research for a "good broker", want to bring up my size up to 1 Mil in the coming months and of course I want my cost of doing business to be as low as possible.

all the best!

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  • #24,626
  • May 2, 2011 5:29am May 2, 2011 5:29am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

cause nothing is going on outthere in the markets, I digged a little into my statictics. (BTW: I'm using this nice tool provided by FF: Trade Explorers. You can find it in the left hand menu, when you are logged in...)

Would be interesting to hear from some more guys their statistics. I know, no one likes to expose himself to the public,. But to be honest, I do not understand why. We are all in here to leran from each other. The best you can get is someone elses feedback. If you are doing bad and noone has the gut to tell it to you,...

hi Niels,
it's a nice new feature although the numbers are a little mind-boggling for a layman like me.
it's great to share it on FF. but for me, i am still not ready. at least the ROI curve is not a robust and productive one.
and yes, keep the spread tight. when you trade big, it can mean a big difference for your pocket.
regards
  • #24,627
  • May 2, 2011 7:36am May 2, 2011 7:36am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

cause nothing is going on outthere in the markets, I digged a little into my statictics. (BTW: I'm using this nice tool provided by FF: Trade Explorers. You can find it in the left hand menu, when you are logged in...)

Would be interesting to hear from some more guys their statistics. I know, no one likes to expose himself to the public,. But to be honest, I do not understand why. We are all in here to leran from each other. The best you can get is someone elses feedback. If you are doing bad and noone has the gut to tell it to you,...

Maybe better blooter?
The statistics are something secondary ...
  • #24,628
  • May 3, 2011 6:23am May 3, 2011 6:23am
Everyone go on vacation? (Tubguy hears the sound of crickets chirping)
  • #24,629
  • May 3, 2011 10:30am May 3, 2011 10:30am
Hi imjscn,

anything new from fti?

Have a weird feeling this time.
I hope imploringly to be wrong ...

Let's send all together our energies and good vibrations to fti!

Come on Fredde, fight!
Hope to hear from you soon ....

All the best,
Niels
  • #24,630
  • May 3, 2011 10:41am May 3, 2011 10:41am
I don't know if they are easy. Sure we got some good trends on gold and the dow. But still.

Quoting Guerrillawar
Its very good that you are dancing well and in tune with the markets. Its appears for the most part you are strategically pyramiding. This style has been very successful in this market regime. However, markets are not always so one sided. Please be cautious because you must adapt to market conditions and they certainly will change maybe even this year or next. Markets have been very easy to trade post Lehman collapse 2008. Really doesn't take the skill it used to. All I'm saying like FTI says dance well and be like water. Have a nice weekend.
  • #24,631
  • May 3, 2011 10:42am May 3, 2011 10:42am
Quoting MaMood
Hi imjscn,

anything new from fti?

Have a weird feeling this time.
I hope imploringly to be wrong ...

Let's send all together our energies and good vibrations to fti!

Come on Fredde, fight!
Hope to hear from you soon ....

All the best,
Niels
hi Niels,
i am waiting for the good news here too---
regards
  • #24,632
  • Edited 10:57am May 3, 2011 10:46am | Edited 10:57am
Hi Friends,

was pondering about, what topics are worth to invest some time on beside all the deep and insightful stuff presented by fti.
Here is my very personal view:

1. reaction of market(-participants) when approaching round numbers and significant S/R levels
2. PA when makret tries to make new highs or lows (like today, while approaching the 1.49 level)
3. How PA behaves (or is guided), when a major market is going to open or close.

I think there are some very common pattern based on human psychology and herd mentality in situations mentioned in number 1 and 2.

And there is also some very reasonable action generated by the market participants for number 3, like profit taking, reducing positions according to non daylight money lines. And of course testing the bounderies in case of opening ...

When you have a good feeling for the possible scenarios, you can use such standard situations for some "low risk" rescues or attacks for example ....

All the best,
Niels

p.s.: Just an example, how it usually looks, when we are approaching a round number or significant S/R level. I do not relate to first 1 test and then the break. I could also take several attempts to break such a level (if ever). More interesting is that little rejection of ~10pips. That could be the fuel for a strong and swift rescue ....
And yes, from my observations the 50 levels are round numbers too :-)

.
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  • #24,633
  • May 3, 2011 11:06am May 3, 2011 11:06am
Happy trading day everyone. It's been a while since I posted here but have been watching and waiting for some news on fti. Niels, I am worried about him, too. Let's have positive thoughts until he can join us again. I think he is really part of US Navy SEAL Team 6 and has just been too busy to post his thoughts!

Trading has been good so far this week, but of course would like to see more -- LOL!. Traded the E/$ and GBP/$ both ways today. Niels, thanks for taking the lead here and I will participate as the gang picks topics (please, not spiral -- LOL).

I am done for the day and will check back later today before Tokyo.
  • #24,634
  • May 3, 2011 11:25am May 3, 2011 11:25am
Quoting MaMood
Hi imjscn,

anything new from fti?

Have a weird feeling this time.
I hope imploringly to be wrong ...

Let's send all together our energies and good vibrations to fti!

Come on Fredde, fight!
Hope to hear from you soon ....

All the best,
Niels
Lets all keep our fingers crossed for FTI and pray for his well being .
  • #24,635
  • Edited 1:26pm May 3, 2011 1:09pm | Edited 1:26pm
Quoting GEfx
[...]
I will participate as the gang picks topics (please, not spiral -- LOL).

I am done for the day and will check back later today before Tokyo.
Hi GE,

good to see you in here.

Hmmh - I'm very disappointed,
cause that spiral thingy was the first topic an my agenda ...


BTW: One of the most interesting situations or moments in our trading, that we should try to recognize as soon as possible is, when "stress quickly becomes distress and alertness turns into anxiety [...]
Our interpretations of situations turn normal stress into distress. [...]
Preparation and familiarity keep stress from becoming distress, because they enhance your sense of control. [...]

That doesn’t mean repealing stress; it means creating active firewalls between stress and distress. Risk management is one of the best psychological firewalls of all.".



(Once again a snippet from that Steenbarger book. He has the ability to put the most important things into very simple words. I like his way of writing ...)



CU,
Niels

  • #24,636
  • May 3, 2011 2:43pm May 3, 2011 2:43pm
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  • #24,637
  • May 3, 2011 3:28pm May 3, 2011 3:28pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi GE,

good to see you in here.

Hmmh - I'm very disappointed,
cause that spiral thingy was the first topic an my agenda ...


BTW: One of the most interesting situations or moments in our trading, that we should try to recognize as soon as possible is, when "[font=Century-Book][size=2]stress quickly becomes distress and alertness turns into anxiety [...]
[size=2][font=Century-Book][font=Century-Book][size=2][font=Century-Book][size=2]Our interpretations of situations turn normal stress...

i am still experimenting with rescues, however i find that rescues when trading counter trend become very challenging. i think if we are trying to reduce risk and trade more defensively when positions become dead in the water there is a tremendous risk of snowballing loss.

rescues in essence is repositioning in the intended direction at a more favorable price.

i think im my opinion trading becomes easier when knowing the three different market condition and devising a viable plan for them.

bull market
bear market
ranging

prices move in waves, for every wave there is a counter wave.

i have found that measuring the true range of a rejection candle gives you an idea if price will break through or not.

the way i look at it sometimes is to observe diminishing momentum as an indication to reduce position,

opening different TF windows and obseving price levels along with candle formations not just go of a candle but
take into acount

momentum of direction
range of candle
price level
market structure

i can guess direction but i fail in scaling in or out i need to have more experiencing with scaling but i find that once my anchor is placed i can ride it or add in three waves not fibo (fibo gives me more risk exposure in my opinion0
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,638
  • May 3, 2011 4:11pm May 3, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting the redlion
i am still experimenting with rescues, however i find that rescues when trading counter trend become very challenging. i think if we are trying to reduce risk and trade more defensively when positions become dead in the water there is a tremendous risk of snowballing loss.

rescues in essence is repositioning in the intended direction at a more favorable price.

i think im my opinion trading becomes easier when knowing the three different market condition and devising a viable plan for them.

bull market
bear market
ranging

prices move...
Hi Redlion. Often i trade against the trend and i finish in a profit. Regards
  • #24,639
  • May 3, 2011 5:41pm May 3, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting Fana
Hi Redlion. Often i trade against the trend and i finish in a profit. Regards

Would you care to show me, may be there is a skill you posses that i am missing

thanks in advance
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #24,640
  • May 3, 2011 8:37pm May 3, 2011 8:37pm
Hi ALL and friends,

i am still around, although very weak.
Decided against them going in at last minutes because second opinions came back that it doesn't help.
This is because that there is no surity that the bleeding will be contained and new clots resurfacing.
Moreover if not careful going in can create more bleeding. Seems part of the heart is not funtional and clots are bound to reoccur due to friction from the funtional.
So i decided to leave matters with God instead, he knows better.
And i also decided to minimise medicines to reduce the after effects of the medcine.
I think i will try to live with the clots that are begining to stabalise in my body.

On the trading front, I am sorry to say that i cannot participate any more because trading makes my heat jumpy and stressed. Much headaches and nosia bouts as i have tendency to over drive my body due to focus intencity. So i will ease away as most of what need presenting had been done. I hope you will use the info intelligently and prudently to crave your success.

Like I said before , my life is going to have to change and i will have little value to trading activities. Please do not worry for me. I had lived a good life, i wish for all blessings and good fortune. Do good for others, with what you achieve.

God Bless.

regards

PS: Although i still am carrying my long USD/yen positions, They seem going against the grains on whats happening in markets.So please not use that as trade judgement. Use that which had been presented. Be nimble, please.

And here my ultimate favourite song of all time.
Born Free- Matt Monroe
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