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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #741
  • Apr 28, 2011 6:11pm Apr 28, 2011 6:11pm
Quoting pinoyboy
Good find, I forgot about them! Well, it proves the point that these SHORTS will be weeded out. Might as well hold on to the longs for awhile!
The great thing about this right now is that there seems to be a lot more AUD shorts rushing in than longs adding to positions. The positive carry makes this a very nice trade. But the currency gains are amazing.
I am in this trade more as a comment on the USD than the AUD; the AUD simply offered the best positive carry.
This trade will eventually reverse and I think it has the potential to do so with a vengeance. The biggest advantage that us retail traders have is that we can liquidate our entire positions and not move the currency by more than half a pip (assuming we're not trading in very thin hours). The big guys don't have that advantage.
  • #742
  • Apr 28, 2011 6:41pm Apr 28, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
The great thing about this right now is that there seems to be a lot more AUD shorts rushing in than longs adding to positions. The positive carry makes this a very nice trade. But the currency gains are amazing.
I am in this trade more as a comment on the USD than the AUD; the AUD simply offered the best positive carry.
This trade will eventually reverse and I think it has the potential to do so with a vengeance. The biggest advantage that us retail traders have is that we can liquidate our entire positions and not move the currency by more than...
Whats the bet that the shorts who have been trying to pick the top end up being long on the way down ?
  • #743
  • Edited 7:15pm Apr 28, 2011 7:04pm | Edited 7:15pm
funny. however, i dont see a top anytime soon. i think we will see 1.10 tonight.

the is nothing to look for in the usd right now. thats why normal tops keep being blown thru.

at some point there will be a hard retracement; however, i still dont think it will last long.

this doesnt look to health right now. any other market i would short heavy. but i am long with a tight stop @1.0925.

Quoting lasty
Whats the bet that the shorts who have been trying to pick the top end up being long on the way down ?
  • #744
  • Apr 28, 2011 7:26pm Apr 28, 2011 7:26pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
funny. however, i dont see a top anytime soon. i think we will see 1.10 tonight.

the is nothing to look for in the usd right now. thats why normal tops keep being blown thru.

at some point there will be a hard retracement; however, i still dont think it will last long.
Todays is a day where you look at the good food guide.. Japan out UK out and you should be out... enjoy
  • #745
  • Edited 8:15pm Apr 28, 2011 8:00pm | Edited 8:15pm
yes, my long was stopped out; now i am short at 1.09215 and my stop is the same currently, so am safe.

i have a trailing stop of 23 pips
i will move up the stop each level of resistence it passes.

got 30 quick pips on that :-) - still down from before :-(

Quoting lasty
Todays is a day where you look at the good food guide.. Japan out UK out and you should be out... enjoy
  • #746
  • Apr 28, 2011 8:16pm Apr 28, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
funny. however, i dont see a top anytime soon. i think we will see 1.10 tonight.
According to Forex News, there are options barriers at 1.095 and 1.10. I don't expect to be above 1.095 tonight.

Quoting lasty
Todays is a day where you look at the good food guide.. Japan out UK out and you should be out... enjoy
Should be fairly thin trading. I lightened up into today's close and will lighten up a bit more before Friday's close, although I'll carry a small long position through the weekend.
  • #747
  • Apr 28, 2011 8:28pm Apr 28, 2011 8:28pm
thanx for the input.
im done for the week, unless this drops down to 1.085

Quoting iflyjetzzz
According to Forex News, there are options barriers at 1.095 and 1.10. I don't expect to be above 1.095 tonight.



Should be fairly thin trading. I lightened up into today's close and will lighten up a bit more before Friday's close, although I'll carry a small long position through the weekend.
  • #748
  • Apr 30, 2011 8:04pm Apr 30, 2011 8:04pm
Been long all week and into the weekend. I expect this pair to eat 1.10 for lunch, then on to 1.20! When I see Australians coming here to California to buy wool, I will know we have topped out. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #749
  • Apr 30, 2011 11:36pm Apr 30, 2011 11:36pm
Hi everyone,
This strategy is designed for traders (like me) that just have a couple of trading hours everyday, it works better in the daily timeframe. You will need the following indicators::
- Exponential Moving Average,10 period, EMA10
- Bill Williams Awesome Oscillator
- Parabolic SAR

Go Long (Short) when the Awesome Oscillator is positive, and the EMA10 and the Parabolic SAR indicators are bellow (above) the price level, don't forget to place the Stop Loss at the minimum of 5% (NEVER RISK MORE THAN 5% OF YOUR TRADING ACCOUNT) Stop Loss or the Parabollic SAR level.

Exit the Trade when the Parabolic SAR and/or the Awesome Oscillator crosess.

http://luisdosal.blogspot.com/
  • #750
  • May 1, 2011 12:34pm May 1, 2011 12:34pm
As all FX Traders should know, the currency rate depends mostly in the rates differential (expectations) between two countries, on Monday's night (ET) the RBA will release the Cash Rate, and the big question is what the RBA should do with the Cash Rate?

First take a look to the Unemplyment Rate, as you see in the chart, during the last two years the employment is consistently improving in Australia

In order to see the charts go to:
http://luisdosal.blogspot.com

Second, look at the CPI, as you see in the chart inflation is in the highest points in the last two years, this is a very good sign that the australian economy is improving, this is a good indicator that the RBA will increase the Cash Rate in the following months.

In order to see the charts go to:
http://luisdosal.blogspot.com

Finally, look at the Cash Rate chart, I believe that this "fundamental analysis" shows that is very probable to see rate increases during the year, and this would definitely would boost the Aussie against the USD

In order to see the charts go to:
http://luisdosal.blogspot.com
  • #751
  • May 1, 2011 3:41pm May 1, 2011 3:41pm
Thanks Luis for your strategy and informative input! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #752
  • May 1, 2011 4:13pm May 1, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting luisdosal
Finally, look at the Cash Rate chart, I believe that this "fundamental analysis" shows that is very probable to see rate increases during the year, and this would definitely would boost the Aussie against the USD
Or you can obtain some local knowledge - the property market here is in the process of having a major correction. This has been building for the last year or two, oversupply, inflated prices and now mortgage stress for many families.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226047227390

And there's the impact on our GDP and global competiveness, from Macquarie Bank and others, calling for RBA intervention to precipitate a fall.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226047988365
  • #753
  • May 1, 2011 4:18pm May 1, 2011 4:18pm
$1.10 and beyond..?

Australia’s Budget Will Forecast 500,000 New Jobs, Swan Says

  • #754
  • May 1, 2011 4:38pm May 1, 2011 4:38pm
Quoting kenfen69
$1.10 and beyond..?

Australia’s Budget Will Forecast 500,000 New Jobs, Swan Says

get a grip - Swannie's crystal ball and attendant politcal hyperbole isn't worth diddly-squat - Labor will have zero hope turning around the negative opinion polls if they hike - they would be hammered into the ground, from consumers and business alike.

The slow-down in China's manufacturing (announced Saturday) is also a warning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13252688
  • #755
  • May 1, 2011 4:50pm May 1, 2011 4:50pm
Australian unemployment number calculation
You are considered employed if:
You have undertaken paid work for one hour in the previous week.
Your seeking work actively and you would be willing to accept a job in the next week if one is available.

Any questions?

It amazes me all the time how the government is able to fool everybody with such statistics.

4.5%
  • #756
  • May 1, 2011 5:01pm May 1, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
It amazes me all the time how the government is able to fool everybody with such statistics.

4.5%

funny, like the US stock market being so full of confidence thanks to fantastic company earnings when the US is sitting on the very precipice of default, ..... errr, yeah, we believe ya, not. Mother of all Fed-led bubbles - they ought to jail themselves for wholesale corruption and fraud.

and here's a chart to contemplate - the cross held up extremely well (surprisingly) during the CPI data - market appears to have the scent of what's coming
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraudweekly.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #757
  • May 1, 2011 5:46pm May 1, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting Jade Gate
get a grip...
Crikey...

Been nice.

Good luck.
  • #758
  • May 1, 2011 6:01pm May 1, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting kenfen69
Crikey...

Been nice.

Good luck.
Haha seems like a bit of friendly banter..
In reality though for our international guests to Australia, the current govt has failed to deliver on promises.
The govt also proposes to implement new taxes a) CO2 Tax and b) minerals Tax. Basically these taxes will destroy many jobs, so Swans 500,000 employment prediction is in fact purely guess work with no really substance.
Two tier economy is apparent in Australia. Resources boom and the rest.
Any rise in interest rates will tip many in the second tier over the edge.
Australia has already become expensive not only in housing sector (prices are coming off now) but all goods and this is despite our strong dollar. In other words we are getting ripped.
RBA will have to tread very carefully when it looks at the next interest rate move.
  • #759
  • May 1, 2011 6:02pm May 1, 2011 6:02pm
Yeah you're right Pipstrumpf, on top of that the Chinese Government prints outright fabrications about its economy; and so does the US. Their monthly corrections to last month's data, are also fabrications. If the Chinese economy actually grew at the rate they claim, Chinese production would by now have exceeded the output of the rest of the world combined. Read the book "1984". http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
  • #760
  • May 1, 2011 6:25pm May 1, 2011 6:25pm
Quoting luisdosal
As all FX Traders should know, the currency rate depends mostly in the rates differential (expectations) between two countries, on Monday's night (ET) the RBA will release the Cash Rate, and the big question is what the RBA should do with the Cash Rate?

First take a look to the Unemplyment Rate, as you see in the chart, during the last two years the employment is consistently improving in Australia

In order to see the charts go to:
http://luisdosal.blogspot.com

Second, look at the CPI, as you see in the chart inflation is in...
I have to totally disagree. Interest rate expectations are what I would say being mis-priced by the markets at this time. Those charts show what is already priced in. I think you ll find in the not too distant future that when the bursting of the housing bubble in Oz takes hold, the next move in interest rates will be down. Also there are signs from China that the economy is slowing.

The market made the same mistake back in 2008, and it is doing it again. A big USD rally is coming. I have been saying it for a few weeks, and have been wrong so far, but my time frame is a rally of 3-6 months at some point this year, so I m not too bothered about the last few weeks, whether it is this week (fair chance) or next month I don't know.

Another way to play it if you for anyone who is worried about being long the USD is short AUDCAD.

Also watch out for Oz banks. I have been looking at their loan books. Serious exposure on the asset side of the balance sheet to real estate and commercial property loans. A small deterioration in the asset quality will play havoc with their balance sheet. They also depend alot on overseas funding.

Also, there is nearly universal opinion/bias to the upside on Oz rates, which gives me confidence on taking the other side of those long the rate differential trade.
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