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Silent Service Method

  • #12,281
  • Apr 28, 2011 9:46pm Apr 28, 2011 9:46pm
Check out this chart. I am sure there are plenty of people going apeshit over the pinbar/shooting star that has been printed. Of course, there are plenty of newbies that have shorted this thing early because this is the trade that is going to make them rich.

The truth about this pinbar is this: I am skipping it. Why? Because although the 1.68-1.70 area is certain resistance, (look at the weekly) I can also plainly see that this market has been grinding away to the upside. (And the lows keep getting higher.) While I admit it is very likely that the market will drop, you can see by the red box as to where I think it won't break through. This pinbar represents a potential pullback to me. This represents an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price - the Pound will be on sale at that point.

Funny how your perception changes.
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  • #12,282
  • Apr 29, 2011 12:26am Apr 29, 2011 12:26am
Quoting clockwork71
Since I posted that, the USD/JPY has fallen again - however it is above the 81 area which I have an interest in. As far as busting through the two wicks, I meant it was driving through an area that had pushed prices down two days in a row.

Why? I don't really know, but the truth is that the JPY is in trouble because of at least 6 central banks selling it. Also, the economy in Japan can't be doing well with an earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear fallout. The days of sustained JPY strength are probably over. The USD/JPY will be the weakest of all xxx/JPY...
Thanks for the answer,it's crystal clear.
  • #12,283
  • Apr 29, 2011 1:57am Apr 29, 2011 1:57am
Quoting clockwork71
Check out this chart. I am sure there are plenty of people going apeshit over the pinbar/shooting star that has been printed. Of course, there are plenty of newbies that have shorted this thing early because this is the trade that is going to make them rich.

The truth about this pinbar is this: I am skipping it. Why? Because although the 1.68-1.70 area is certain resistance, (look at the weekly) I can also plainly see that this market has been grinding away to the upside. (And the lows keep getting higher.) While I admit it is very likely that...
This resonated with me too Chris - not so long ago I would have jumped on this too.

Thing that would stop me tho is that I just won't buy the dollar atm - Yeah I know the pound doesn't look good either but at least the UK is trying to reduce it's defecit. And the wedding will give the economy a short-term fillip??.

Cos now we've said that I expect it'll drop like a stone lol.
  • #12,284
  • Apr 29, 2011 4:04am Apr 29, 2011 4:04am
Quoting clockwork71
Looking at the last post I did, I can now say that the JPY in general got the green light to fall in value today, especially against the high flyers as easy money will continue. Sad.....but what the hell, I didn't need my money to hold value anyway.

I should move to Switzerland. I hear the beaches suck there though!
Come CW to live here in the "safe heaven"!

Mountains are fine, food is rich and good, people are nicely mixed. Easterns speak german and also look similar (eating soussage), westerns speak french and look like them a bit too 8eating more cheese). On the east-south we get to the italian speakers, which have gorgeous food for sure (italian like)!

Cheese fondu man!
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,285
  • Apr 29, 2011 8:12am Apr 29, 2011 8:12am
Quoting stewrigh
This resonated with me too Chris - not so long ago I would have jumped on this too.

Thing that would stop me tho is that I just won't buy the dollar atm - Yeah I know the pound doesn't look good either but at least the UK is trying to reduce it's defecit. And the wedding will give the economy a short-term fillip??.

Cos now we've said that I expect it'll drop like a stone lol.
Murphy's Law dictates that it will be at 0.60 next week. lol
  • #12,286
  • Apr 29, 2011 8:14am Apr 29, 2011 8:14am
Quoting zoli
Come CW to live here in the "safe heaven"!

Mountains are fine, food is rich and good, people are nicely mixed. Easterns speak german and also look similar (eating soussage), westerns speak french and look like them a bit too 8eating more cheese). On the east-south we get to the italian speakers, which have gorgeous food for sure (italian like)!

Cheese fondu man!
Don't forget Switzerland's greatest export:


Inserted Video
  • #12,287
  • Apr 29, 2011 8:33am Apr 29, 2011 8:33am
Quoting clockwork71
Don't forget Switzerland's greatest export:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEnE5DHrJkE
lol. So this is why their money is soo strong!
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,288
  • Apr 29, 2011 3:57pm Apr 29, 2011 3:57pm
Trading sucks. My account is tiny. I went over my metrics today and was appalled at how little real cash I made. But it was a 9% gain for the quarter, which I'm fine with.

I need some effing capital, or I will quit this game in 3 years.
  • #12,289
  • Apr 29, 2011 4:25pm Apr 29, 2011 4:25pm
Anyone remember this one from a week or so ago? Looked like a good bullish opportunity at the time, it now looks set to go the other way
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  • #12,290
  • Apr 29, 2011 8:36pm Apr 29, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting VitaminBeer
Anyone remember this one from a week or so ago? Looked like a good bullish opportunity at the time, it now looks set to go the other way
Agreed. I got stopped out on that one, but that is the beauty of only paying attention to where it matters - you will eventually get another chance. Not that we know that the area isn't supportive, it should be resistive. (In theory at least.)

Good catch.
  • #12,291
  • Apr 29, 2011 8:36pm Apr 29, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting zoli
lol. So this is why their money is soo strong!
Yes, it all comes back to Krokus baby!
  • #12,292
  • Apr 29, 2011 9:32pm Apr 29, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting clockwork71
Agreed. I got stopped out on that one, but that is the beauty of only paying attention to where it matters - you will eventually get another chance. Not that we know that the area isn't supportive, it should be resistive. (In theory at least.)

Good catch.
I too had a pending buy order set on this one and luckily enough it did not get triggered

Will look at selling it next week!
  • #12,293
  • Apr 30, 2011 1:15am Apr 30, 2011 1:15am
Quoting Low
Trading sucks. My account is tiny. I went over my metrics today and was appalled at how little real cash I made. But it was a 9% gain for the quarter, which I'm fine with.

I need some effing capital, or I will quit this game in 3 years.
Low,

Try scaling in to a trend - that way you can build bigger positions without increasing your risk.

Just a thought.
  • #12,294
  • Apr 30, 2011 1:41am Apr 30, 2011 1:41am
Quoting stewrigh
Low,

Try scaling in to a trend - that way you can build bigger positions without increasing your risk.

Just a thought.
I'm actually doing better just day-trading. It's kind of ironic I've spent my years learning the weekly's and daily's, but find success on the M15.

Probably because I know whats going on on the big charts.
  • #12,295
  • Apr 30, 2011 2:04am Apr 30, 2011 2:04am
Quoting Low
I'm actually doing better just day-trading. It's kind of ironic I've spent my years learning the weekly's and daily's, but find success on the M15.

Probably because I know whats going on on the big charts.
That's the way I trade - identify the daily/weekly/4hr trend but I enter on 15m.

I also hold my trades for days, weeks sometimes - just adding to them on the pullbacks.

I tried scalping and intraday trading but I end up overtrading when I do that
  • #12,296
  • Apr 30, 2011 2:05am Apr 30, 2011 2:05am
Quoting Low
I'm actually doing better just day-trading. It's kind of ironic I've spent my years learning the weekly's and daily's, but find success on the M15.

Probably because I know whats going on on the big charts.
I hesitate to endorse this kind of trading, mainly because of the fact that there are a lot of beginners on this thread, and trading 15 minute charts can be dangerous - but what he said can certainly be true....shorter time frames can work out, if you know what is going on during higher time frames. In other words, if you are going to play a 15 minute bullish outside bar, it makes more sense if it is based upon weekly support. (As an example.)

Of course, you also have to be able to base your stops on the higher time frame as well. But I will stop here, otherwise - it will start a whole new thread.
  • #12,297
  • Apr 30, 2011 2:23am Apr 30, 2011 2:23am
I appreciate your semi-support Chris. I wouldn't recommend the M15 to a newbie, it's just plain chaos....but if I know what I'm looking for, and see the opportunity to get into it on the small charts...well... why not?


Part of it's just plain about experience too. Like your post about GU. Looks ripe to the uninformed, but probably just a correction. Better to look for longs farther down.

Funny thing is, trend doesn't mean that much for day-trading, if the trend is up, and london sold off, sure, I'm looking for longs during NY, but if the trend is up and london rallied, I'll sell it for an hour or two, before buying.

Mostly I just do what the charts tell me, and find it more relaxing to show up (like a job), do my work, get paid, and go do something else (I learned that from you).
  • #12,298
  • Apr 30, 2011 8:42am Apr 30, 2011 8:42am
new blog post uploaded.
  • #12,299
  • Apr 30, 2011 10:57am Apr 30, 2011 10:57am
Quoting Low
Trading sucks. My account is tiny. I went over my metrics today and was appalled at how little real cash I made. But it was a 9% gain for the quarter, which I'm fine with.

I need some effing capital, or I will quit this game in 3 years.
You made 9% in one quarter and you are upset? Are you crazy? 9% is excellent. It is great you have higher goals, but making 9% says that you know what you are doing. You have reached the top of the hill, the hard part is behind you.

There would be no reason to quit. Even if you don't have enough capital to do it full time. In 20 years you will have enough capital, and if you can trade you can retire on it right there. If you quit, in 20 years you will have the capital, but not the skills, and will be stuck working some stressful job that you hate, missing time from your family and the dreams you always wanted to do.

I have been programming computers for almost 11 years. Very good job, great company. I took 4 days off last week for a trip to DC. When I got back it was like I was gone for 3 months. Work piled up, stress, it was a rough week catching up. I realized that until I can retire, I will never be free to enjoy life. And sadly, this is a better position than most Americans right now.
  • #12,300
  • Apr 30, 2011 5:57pm Apr 30, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting unlv_tj
You made 9% in one quarter and you are upset? Are you crazy? 9% is excellent. It is great you have higher goals, but making 9% says that you know what you are doing. You have reached the top of the hill, the hard part is behind you.
To put that in perspective...

Making 9% a quarter, starting with $1,000 would make you a millionaire in about 20yrs (adding $0 along the way). If you added $100 at the end of each quarter, you'd have $2 million at the end of 20yrs....

So yeah, I'd say 9%/qtr isn't too bad!
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