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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #721
  • Apr 25, 2011 12:34am Apr 25, 2011 12:34am
Quoting fxtopedia
I am SHORT ON AUDUSD ENTRY 1.0770 SL 1.0790 TP1 1.670 TP2 1.0600
Nice call. There's a lot of resistance sitting at 1.078-1.08. It looks like we're looking at a range of 1.07-1.078 at the moment.
I chose to play it the opposite way with small buys 1.075-1.0715. I sold most of my long position going into the weekend (I don't like leaving much of an open position over the weekend ... event risk) and have rebuilt it on the decline. I've got a TP of 1.0759-1.0773 on a few of the 'trading' lots.
I would expect resistance up there and will rebuy at lower levels whatever I'm able to sell.
  • #722
  • Apr 25, 2011 12:56am Apr 25, 2011 12:56am
Updates: Market was clouded with disappointment over Fed stimulus on US econ.

15-mins trending - Strongly Bullish and the OB/OS index is neutral.
1-hour trending - Strongly Bearish and the OB/OS index is heavy oversold.

I stay on the sideline first.
  • #723
  • Apr 25, 2011 1:47am Apr 25, 2011 1:47am
1-hour trending - turn to slightly bearish / still heavy oversold.

Risk 0.01 Long @ 1.0719 TP 1.076 - EMA 50 signaling buy @ 1-hour trending 1.0722 up.
For Short/Mid term trade.
  • #724
  • Apr 25, 2011 2:15am Apr 25, 2011 2:15am
so.. despite the gold rising looks like we wait for the housing report to take the .08 and then .1(or so) by the fib?
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventf...1&cust=mam#top
http://www.nahb.org/reference_list.aspx?sectionID=130
my bet on housing its gona be something like 260 rather then 280-290.

you guys think the AUD needs more correction / is oversold?
i dont see the chinese trillon USD being dumped still..
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  • #725
  • Apr 25, 2011 9:25am Apr 25, 2011 9:25am
HMMM I was just about to go long, because this pair is ranging now.. but since the US housing came out it seems it's influencing the price a bit (at least short term, and I was looking for a short term trade)
  • #726
  • Apr 25, 2011 11:12am Apr 25, 2011 11:12am
300k new houses! oh well, at least the carry trade is helping meanwhile
  • #727
  • Apr 25, 2011 7:34pm Apr 25, 2011 7:34pm
Just wanted to share my chart with yall and the levels that I feel are important that I am basing my trades off of. As shown by my chart I was very prematurely short and am continuing to hold as I am not over-leveraged and this is a long term position for me.

What I am looking for in the short term is a break of and failed retest of 1.0676 area which will lead to good near term support of the 1.0580 level with an ascending trendline a few pips higher.

If I were to take on anymore short positions based on this chart I would again look for a failed retest of the 1.0580 level as well as a test of the upward trendline.

From there I would look for the 1.0420 to provide short term support and then hopefully reach the 1.02 level for my personal take profit as that would be a significant retrace in an upwardly trending market. I would only continue to hold short if the US were to increase interest rates or if Australia were to decrease rates disrupting the insanely profitable carry trade.

I do not anticipate this to happen immediately and am still very much open to the possibility that this pair could continue on towards the 1.10 level.
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  • #728
  • Apr 26, 2011 6:08am Apr 26, 2011 6:08am
Updates:
Close my Long position 1.0719 @ 1.0130 (+11 pips)

Mistake - close too early as upward deviation was detected too late.

Aussie rose to the peak near 1.0770 - and steep down to the trading at 1.0746 now.
  • #729
  • Apr 26, 2011 8:39pm Apr 26, 2011 8:39pm
Quoting needpips
im adding one last short at 1.07....then I will wait till 1.10 if that were to occur
Don't. Fight. The. Tape.
  • #730
  • Apr 27, 2011 8:07am Apr 27, 2011 8:07am
Quoting evelee8
Updates:
Close my Long position 1.0719 @ 1.0730 (+11 pips) - correction.

Mistake - close too early as upward deviation was detected too late.

Aussie rose to the peak near 1.0770 - and steep down to the trading at 1.0746 now.
Aussie breaking to further high > 1.085.
trading at 1.0822 now.

pay attention to the event:
FED - expected to be non hawkish - which will bring the USD further down..
NZ rate decision and statement - expected to be hawkish since the econ indicator showing positive sign.

Aussie Gov Reports:
With the good econ indicator on CPI - a rate hike will be the next possible discussion during the talk. Pay attention to this.
  • #731
  • Apr 27, 2011 1:16pm Apr 27, 2011 1:16pm
just checking in to see how things are going. I am off this pair until we get a good retrace. Stupid to be short and scary to be long. I was a part of the last carry trade disaster in G/Y so I am going to watch this one from the sidelines. Good trades to all....

Regards,
  • #732
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:20pm Apr 27, 2011 9:20pm
Aussie breaking higher on the ground - banker noted the further potential breaking > 1.100 - if US continue to show sign of weakness in its econ and/or fiscal policy.

My portfolio updates - Closed:
Aussie Long 1.0817 TP @ 1.0870 (+53 pips)
Kiwi Long 0.8018 TP @ 0.8060 (+42 pips)

Left one Aussie Long @ 1.0478 for interest - adjusted TP to 1.15.
I will stay on sideline to wait this pair step down to 1.08 before another potential entry.
  • #733
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:40am Apr 28, 2011 3:40am
I've got 1.1250 pencilled in for end of next week based on similar strength of the rally leg in 2010. Smell the free air up here.
  • #734
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:42am Apr 28, 2011 5:42am
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi all,
for the purpose of illustrating my point about picking temporary tops and bottoms as I mentioned earlier to fx-petra, I have created a $10,000 demo account with FXOPEN.
I have placed the four orders with entry @ 1.0803 SL 1.0863 and TP 1-4 @
(1) 1.0781
(2) 1.0752
(3) 1.0724
(4) 1.0695

login: 1323243
investor pw: 4oqcikg

As a trader, I have made up my mind to back up my "claims" with real-time facts and figures.
Let's see how this plays out.
Happy trading!
Meshach.
Hi - tried signing in but didn't accept for some reason - I'm guessing these trades didn't go too well?

X.
Return on Equity: 2017, 32.4%; 2018; 8.0%, 2019 (30Apr), 4.5%
  • #735
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:01pm Apr 28, 2011 3:01pm
Quoting Xeniz
Hi - tried signing in but didn't accept for some reason - I'm guessing these trades didn't go too well?

X.
burning my short fingers!!!! Ouch....that hurts.
  • #736
  • Apr 28, 2011 3:58pm Apr 28, 2011 3:58pm
As long as you see these statistics - http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios - what do you think will happen? The stats had greater discrepancy a few days ago (anything paired with USD; AU and EU primarily). What's happening is the SHORTS are being weeded out.
  • #737
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:04pm Apr 28, 2011 4:04pm
Quoting pinoyboy
As long as you see these statistics - http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/open-position-ratios - what do you think will happen? The stats had greater discrepancy a few days ago (anything paired with USD; AU and EU primarily). What's happening is the SHORTS are being weeded out.
Maybe on Oanda but not on Dukascopy. There's still a metric ton of retail AUD shorts. http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
  • #738
  • Apr 28, 2011 4:06pm Apr 28, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Maybe on Oanda but not on Dukascopy. There's still a metric ton of retail AUD shorts. http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/
Good find, I forgot about them! Well, it proves the point that these SHORTS will be weeded out. Might as well hold on to the longs for awhile!
  • #739
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:31pm Apr 28, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting pinoyboy
Good find, I forgot about them! Well, it proves the point that these SHORTS will be weeded out. Might as well hold on to the longs for awhile!
Now you know why the "reported" 95pct of them lose money.
  • #740
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:36pm Apr 28, 2011 5:36pm
Dukas is great Contrarian indicator .
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