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Silent Service Method

  • #12,261
  • Apr 23, 2011 4:21pm Apr 23, 2011 4:21pm
Congrats Wheels! You really nailed this Big Un' Now I feel like I'm watching a guy throwing a no hitter! Nobody says anything because they don't want to break the spell. When it's all over, give us a recap, and we'll all hoist a cold one in your honor!
  • #12,262
  • Apr 24, 2011 5:46pm Apr 24, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting Bigmouth
Congrats Wheels! You really nailed this Big Un' Now I feel like I'm watching a guy throwing a no hitter! Nobody says anything because they don't want to break the spell. When it's all over, give us a recap, and we'll all hoist a cold one in your honor!

Yeah....nobody jinx it!
  • #12,263
  • Apr 25, 2011 2:38am Apr 25, 2011 2:38am
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah....nobody jinx it!
Not jinxed - Its at $49 now, bet 4X is even happier.
  • #12,264
  • Apr 25, 2011 7:09am Apr 25, 2011 7:09am
I find this chart very enticing. Of course, it hasn't fired off the signal to buy yet.....but the set up is right where you would want it - at the 135.50 level. As you can see, the market broke out at that area, and surged northward. We have no come back and retested it. If we can break above last week's highs - I would be a buyer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,265
  • Apr 25, 2011 7:12am Apr 25, 2011 7:12am
As most of you know, I was away last week, and part of the previous one. I learned a lot about trading during that time, and the value of it. I found myself not thinking about it at all, and actually came back to looking at the charts in a completely "clean" way.

What I mean is that while you can develop a positive understanding about what is going on in the currency markets from a day-to-day perspective, you can also get a bit of mental clutter as well. By worrying about things like "Is the water going to be warm enough at 7:30 am", you tend to forget about how the Yen is performing against the Kiwi. Nice.

I came back, and it was like looking at the market for the first time in ages. Everything was "clean". I suggest that every once in a while you walk away for a few days, it certainly helped me.
  • #12,266
  • Apr 25, 2011 7:27am Apr 25, 2011 7:27am
Thank you everyone for your good wishes and congratulations. I will indeed let you all know the final outcome. However I hope the end is at least a couple more years away.

Meanwhile, for those of you who are still doubters, here's a link with the whole silver story. The web site is quite anti-Establishment Elite, political in nature but the total view on silver is really excellent.
http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-b...silver-shield/

Wheels
  • #12,267
  • Apr 26, 2011 4:38am Apr 26, 2011 4:38am
Quoting 4xWheels
The web site is quite anti-Establishment Elite, political in nature but the total view on silver is really excellent.
http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-b...silver-shield/
That site is outlandish. But the real question is, why would you be buying silver at these levels? For my $ I'd take gold any day of the week and twice on Sundays. In fact, I started some small trades to short silver and go long gold and play the ratio between the two. When I start seeing ads on TV to buy silver, talking heads on CNBC crowing about the metal and my mother-in-law telling me that the dollar is heading for the tank I think it might be time for cooler heads to prevail.

The gold-silver ratio was (I meant to post this chart yesterday morning) at its lowest level in 30yrs. You don't have to go as far as me and short silver, but if you're buying precious metals, I don't understand why you'd want Silver -- I'd be looking at Gold/Platinum/Palladium.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Today this is about 32.85, so no longer at 30yr low...
  • #12,268
  • Apr 26, 2011 4:48am Apr 26, 2011 4:48am
Quoting 4xWheels
Thank you everyone for your good wishes and congratulations. I will indeed let you all know the final outcome. However I hope the end is at least a couple more years away.

Meanwhile, for those of you who are still doubters, here's a link with the whole silver story. The web site is quite anti-Establishment Elite, political in nature but the total view on silver is really excellent.
http://dont-tread-on.me/the-silver-b...silver-shield/

Wheels
Hi

thanks for the article. I will read it when I have a little time. I am back to business-slowly.
I think the 50ish leel could be only a temporary barier! A lot of people took profit and established shorts saying "this is the ultimate top". This might be treu. Yet, in a soo straight forward trend I need a serious evidence of topping, more than an ever high round number.

So I hope we can all long this on the exhaustion of a sizeable retrace. It is due, the chart is parabolical IMHO.

I take your advice, CW, on the time spent away. I am just back from Vietnam (what a trip) an on the way to do things. The charts are nice and new. Good feeling.

cheers
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,269
  • Apr 26, 2011 6:15am Apr 26, 2011 6:15am
As far as Silver is concerned, you could be right about the ratio - but I agree that the metal probably has farther to go. Also, it really depends on how you are playing it. In the futures pits - I find Silver too volatile to say the least.....but for spot on a system like Oanada, which is where I believe he said he was dong it - it is much more stable since you can choose your size.

As far as both are concerned, I am still thinking short, but not yet. When the correction comes in these markets - they are absolutely brutal. If the Fed actually raised interest rates (in about 30 years) gold will shed $200 in a heartbeat.
  • #12,270
  • Apr 26, 2011 4:23pm Apr 26, 2011 4:23pm
So......do you ever get a feeling that the entire Forex world is a group of people that are pitching ideas and opinions that are nothing more than mere guesses? Just read a bunch of different articles - most of which were absolute shit at best. Amazing if you think about it.
  • #12,271
  • Apr 26, 2011 5:33pm Apr 26, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting clockwork71
So......do you ever get a feeling that the entire Forex world is a group of people that are pitching ideas and opinions that are nothing more than mere guesses? Just read a bunch of different articles - most of which were absolute shit at best. Amazing if you think about it.
LOL, the less I read on others opinions, the better I feel.

I have had one question recently. Where has the Swiss National Bank been? They were always feared in the past when the Swiss Frank got too strong, and right now they seem to no longer care.
  • #12,272
  • Apr 26, 2011 10:35pm Apr 26, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting unlv_tj
LOL, the less I read on others opinions, the better I feel.

I have had one question recently. Where has the Swiss National Bank been? They were always feared in the past when the Swiss Frank got too strong, and right now they seem to no longer care.
I think I read somewhere that they got badly burned last year trying to suppress the Franc and so decided to let the Franc find it's own level.
  • #12,273
  • Apr 26, 2011 11:12pm Apr 26, 2011 11:12pm
Quoting stewrigh
I think I read somewhere that they got badly burned last year trying to suppress the Franc and so decided to let the Franc find it's own level.
I have read the annual report of the SNB. They actually lost some 16 bill CHF because of the transactions. That is the summ result of the year not the CHF shorting on its own, that was actually an even bigger loss. Good that is was somewhat counteracted by gold positions and others.

Although Switzerland is wealthy, we do not like losses of this size coming from speculative attack of the SNB. They tried their best, but let us admit, unless many countries go together, like G7 after the earthquake, even national banks are unable to set new direction to the markets.

They may trigger temporary moves but that is all. That suggests that their actions also remain in the field of speculation. They bet they can move the market to the intented direction. National banks betting....that is not good enough for the swiss people. Here, people work hard and do not like to bet their money away.

So, for now, no more SNB bets IMHO.
Kind Regards zol
  • #12,274
  • Apr 27, 2011 8:09am Apr 27, 2011 8:09am
You couldn't pay me enough to short the Franc right now. I bet the SNB says the same thing. Until the rest of the world is suddenly concerned about the plight of the long-suffering Swiss people......the SNB will find any intervention a lonely endeavor.
  • #12,275
  • Apr 27, 2011 8:11am Apr 27, 2011 8:11am
Check out this chart. I like the way that the bullish bar smashed through two candles that have long wicks suggesting selling pressure. The breakthrough could be the real deal, and you have to take into account the 80-81 area begin so important in the recent past.

Of course, Mr. Bernanke speaks later - and you can pretty much count on him trying to kill the dollar if history is anything to go by.

Traitor.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,276
  • Apr 27, 2011 3:08pm Apr 27, 2011 3:08pm
Looking at the last post I did, I can now say that the JPY in general got the green light to fall in value today, especially against the high flyers as easy money will continue. Sad.....but what the hell, I didn't need my money to hold value anyway.

I should move to Switzerland. I hear the beaches suck there though!
  • #12,277
  • Apr 27, 2011 10:32pm Apr 27, 2011 10:32pm
Quoting clockwork71
Check out this chart. I like the way that the bullish bar smashed through two candles that have long wicks suggesting selling pressure. The breakthrough could be the real deal, and you have to take into account the 80-81 area begin so important in the recent past.

Of course, Mr. Bernanke speaks later - and you can pretty much count on him trying to kill the dollar if history is anything to go by.

Traitor.
Hi Clockwork 71,could you elaborate a little bit on this "I like the way that the bullish bar smashed through two candles that have long wicks suggesting selling pressure" why do you think that?
Do you think that JPY is going down because they didn't change the rate or is there something else.I'm just trying to get around fundies and this looks like the right place to ask the questions.135.80 looks like a nice place to buy gbpjpy...right or wrong?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,278
  • Apr 27, 2011 11:47pm Apr 27, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting madboy
Hi Clockwork 71,could you elaborate a little bit on this "I like the way that the bullish bar smashed through two candles that have long wicks suggesting selling pressure" why do you think that?
Do you think that JPY is going down because they didn't change the rate or is there something else.I'm just trying to get around fundies and this looks like the right place to ask the questions.135.80 looks like a nice place to buy gbpjpy...right or wrong?
Didn't the ratings agencies downgrade Japan to negative yesterday - I thought that was why the Yen dropped. Not sure tho check out forex live maybe.
  • #12,279
  • Apr 28, 2011 7:40pm Apr 28, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting madboy
Hi Clockwork 71,could you elaborate a little bit on this "I like the way that the bullish bar smashed through two candles that have long wicks suggesting selling pressure" why do you think that?
Do you think that JPY is going down because they didn't change the rate or is there something else.I'm just trying to get around fundies and this looks like the right place to ask the questions.135.80 looks like a nice place to buy gbpjpy...right or wrong?

Since I posted that, the USD/JPY has fallen again - however it is above the 81 area which I have an interest in. As far as busting through the two wicks, I meant it was driving through an area that had pushed prices down two days in a row.

Why? I don't really know, but the truth is that the JPY is in trouble because of at least 6 central banks selling it. Also, the economy in Japan can't be doing well with an earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear fallout. The days of sustained JPY strength are probably over. The USD/JPY will be the weakest of all xxx/JPY pairs because the USD is being abandoned by the Fed at this point.

As far as 135.50 in GBP/JPY - (I know you said 80....but it's the same area as far as I have it marked.) I think it is very vital. Also of note is the 120 and 115 in EUR/JPY, for the same reasons.

Chris
  • #12,280
  • Apr 28, 2011 7:41pm Apr 28, 2011 7:41pm
Quoting stewrigh
Didn't the ratings agencies downgrade Japan to negative yesterday - I thought that was why the Yen dropped. Not sure tho check out forex live maybe.
Might have, don't know. I only know that people with unlimited amounts of money are wanting to sell of the Yen. That's reason enough for me.
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