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An Edge In The Markets

  • #61
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:26am Apr 25, 2011 10:26am
Quoting Troikaone1
I agree to some extent.......but the only thing a consistently profitable trader is addicted to is making money in my opinion. However, a weak minded person will definitely go off the deep end trying to trade any market. It is not for the faint of heart.....trust me!
Wait wat, if I'm addicted will I become profitable?
  • #62
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:27am Apr 25, 2011 10:27am
Quoting Troikaone1
I agree to some extent.......but the only thing a consistently profitable trader is addicted to is making money in my opinion. However, a weak minded person will definitely go off the deep end trying to trade any market. It is not for the faint of heart.....trust me!
Its not about the money if they have enough to live comfortably. A lot of the best give it away to charity! I Its about the patterns, the dance, the rhythms. Its the game itself they love. The market is a fascinating puzzle that makes you think and keeps you sharp. One will never go senile trading the markets look at Soros and Buffet. I know of a successful man who retired at 67 or 68. He's now 74 and his mind is basically gone. Not due to illness but becasue he has not interaction, no reason to live. All he does is read the paper, watch tv and go out to restaurants.
  • #63
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:28am Apr 25, 2011 10:28am
Quoting the redlion
like ive said before a system with an edge and psychology is not equal success

a robot has all the psychology in the world cause he doesnt have one
and can execute to perfection, however robots have drawdowns and lose money. why?

this is a skill an art not a sience
I personally think in a 50 to 100 years or so, programs will be advanced enough to be able to trade more profitably than any human can.

Once these programs can compute all inputs from everywhere and make decisions on how the markets might react to that, you then effectively created a super trading program.

Right now such self-learning programs are still not advanced enough, so that still takes a while. But I think in the next century human traders might become obsolete, once such programs can use everything a normal human can use. I actually think most jobs will then become obsolete, once such artificial intelligence programs are getting close to human processing power.

Anyways, just my silly thoughts.
  • #64
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:32am Apr 25, 2011 10:32am
Quoting Custos
I personally think in a 50 to 100 years or so, programs will be advanced enough to be able to trade more profitably than any human can.

Once these programs can compute all inputs from everywhere and make decisions on how the markets might react to that, you then effectively created a super trading program.

Right now such self-learning programs are still not advanced enough, so that still takes a while. But I think in the next century human traders might become obsolete, once such programs can use everything a normal human can use. I actually...
spot on
just look how much money HFT brings in to GS or JPM. I'm more scared this will be in the next decade.
  • #65
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:35am Apr 25, 2011 10:35am
Redlion quick question. Please dont take any offence I mean you goodwill. What did the fundamentals have to do with the eurusd selling off during asia session at 1.46. Then rallying from 1.4525. And then selling off from 1.4625 during New York Session. I don't see anything other than technicals influencing price action today. I was lucky enough to be short on both of those moves pretty close to the swing high. I just don't think one should care to much about fundies. I'm not saying disregard it but your concern is with price movement because that pays your bills not fundamentals.
  • #66
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:36am Apr 25, 2011 10:36am
i dont necesarily agree, i mean, in order for the markets to react

you NEED HUMANS.

robost won buy or sell to each other knowing their positions are not optimal.

you will have some quiet markets with robots trading it with out humans.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #67
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:36am Apr 25, 2011 10:36am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Its not about the money if they have enough to live comfortably. A lot of the best give it away to charity! I Its about the patterns, the dance, the rhythms. Its the game itself they love. The market is a fascinating puzzle that makes you think and keeps you sharp. One will never go senile trading the markets look at Soros and Buffet. I know of a successful man who retired at 67 or 68. He's now 74 and his mind is basically gone. Not due to illness but becasue he has not interaction, no reason to live. All he does is read the paper, watch tv and...
I totally agree......I wish I could give it away right now....but I can't .
  • #68
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:37am Apr 25, 2011 10:37am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Redlion quick question. Please dont take any offence I mean you goodwill. What did the fundamentals have to do with the eurusd selling off during asia session at 1.46. Then rallying from 1.4525. And then selling off from 1.4625 during New York Session. I don't see anything other than technicals influencing price action today. I was lucky enough to be short on both of those moves pretty close to the swing high. I just don't think one should care to much about fundies. I'm not saying disregard it but your concern is with price movement because that...
My answer to that would be that you are looking at the wrong time-frame. Fundamentals play out in months to years, not just in a couple of days.

In the short-term (days to weeks) rumors, news items and technicals play a far bigger role.
  • #69
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:39am Apr 25, 2011 10:39am
Quoting the redlion
i dont necesarily agree, i mean, in order for the markets to react

you NEED HUMANS.

robost won buy or sell to each other knowing their positions are not optimal.

you will have some quiet markets with robots trading it with out humans.
no, they would still have different motives like we have nowadays. They just could react faster & possibly smarter. I don't think markets would stop.
  • #70
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:40am Apr 25, 2011 10:40am
The Paul Tudor Jones documentary from the late 80's...
about 16 minutes in....

"Paul spends his week-ends at his farm in Virginia. It is early Sunday evening..."

He's on the speakerphone trading currencies with Australia, Hong Kong...Budweiser in hand.

Clearly addicted.
http://www.smartpip.com/video_paul_tudor_jones.html
  • #71
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:40am Apr 25, 2011 10:40am
Without fundamentals, the price action on your chart would look like a horizontal line going across your screen.
  • #72
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:41am Apr 25, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Intu
The Paul Tudor Jones documentary from the late 80's...
about 16 minutes in....

"Paul spends his week-ends at his farm in Virginia. It is early Sunday evening..."

He's on the speakerphone trading currencies with Australia, Hong Kong...Budweiser in hand.

Clearly addicted.
http://www.smartpip.com/video_paul_tudor_jones.html
I like that video!
  • #73
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:45am Apr 25, 2011 10:45am
Quoting the redlion
i dont necesarily agree, i mean, in order for the markets to react

you NEED HUMANS.

robost won buy or sell to each other knowing their positions are not optimal.

you will have some quiet markets with robots trading it with out humans.
Tell that to the flash crash looser side.

In a broker market if there is anonymity the other side shouldn't be known.
  • #74
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:47am Apr 25, 2011 10:47am
its a combination of both, but fundamentals are important in a way that you might not think.

for example what is the reason all this ranging market is occuring?

lack of direction, the true Finn party is a threat to the Euro, itself
the rumor of the Greeks asking to restructure the debt
the danger of defaults, the fall in production. the greek debt yields are at 13%

now you have the US Bernanke to speak on wednesday the market expecting weak dollar continuation. housing prices rose, so the fed will probably keep the weak dollar for now

in order for a pair to rsie EUR/USD the eur needs to be stronger with higher demand, the USD needs to be weaker with lower demand.

when both components lack direction you see a ranging market.
the dollar continues to rise and fall across the board, it is the USD that drives the market. if the USD has no direciton you will not see it against the Majors.

the AUD still strong, the Chf still stable, the CAD should be getting stronger with oil prices climbing. but THE USD has no direction, look at all the majors and they are all ranging.

like i said before, fundamentals esp of the DOLLAR give you direction. technicals timing, knowing the market is not sure will not make me any money, looking at my chart and being nimble and flexible trading the price action will. however trading the price action alone can be deceiving, you can place an order in the wrong direction thinking the market has mommentum just to find out it actually didnt.

i know there is no direction fundamentals
i know when and where to place my orders technicals

Direction+Timing= profit
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #75
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:52am Apr 25, 2011 10:52am
Quoting the redlion
like i said before, fundamentals esp of the DOLLAR give you direction. technicals timing, knowing the market is not sure will not make me any money, looking at my chart and being nimble and flexible trading the price action will. however trading the price action alone can be deceiving, you can place an order in the wrong direction thinking the market has mommentum just to find out it actually didnt.

i know there is no direction fundamentals
i know when and where to place my orders technicals

Direction+Timing= profit
good post! I especially like your last sentence: direction + timing = profit
  • #76
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:55am Apr 25, 2011 10:55am
Quoting the redlion
its a combination of both, but fundamentals are important in a way that you might not think.

for example what is the reason all this ranging market is occuring?

lack of direction, the true Finn party is a threat to the Euro, itself
the rumor of the Greeks asking to restructure the debt
the danger of defaults, the fall in production. the greek debt yields are at 13%

now you have the US Bernanke to speak on wednesday the market expecting weak dollar continuation. housing prices rose, so the fed will probably keep the weak dollar for now

in...
Wow that is a lot of inputs. You must be a very sharp man. I used to read bloomberg, reuters and the wall street journal in my early days. I nearly lost my sanity. I prefer to dance with the markets with classical music in the background. My quality of life increased immensely when I stopped getting hung up with the why and just enjoyed myself trading while listening to a beautiful opera or Spanish guitar or Beethoven. I would never go back to some newscaster on cnbc. I actually get repulsed listening to that I can't bear 5 minutes of it. I like to read the Financial Times physical copy newspaper a few times a week at my local coffee house and thats about it.
  • #77
  • Apr 25, 2011 10:57am Apr 25, 2011 10:57am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I like to read the Financial Times physical copy newspaper a few times a week at my local coffee house and thats about it.
you don't need any more than that to gauge direction
  • #78
  • Apr 25, 2011 11:00am Apr 25, 2011 11:00am
Quoting Custos
you don't need any more than that to gauge direction
exactly
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #79
  • Apr 25, 2011 11:20am Apr 25, 2011 11:20am
Quoting Custos
I personally think in a 50 to 100 years or so, programs will be advanced enough to be able to trade more profitably than any human can.

Once these programs can compute all inputs from everywhere and make decisions on how the markets might react to that, you then effectively created a super trading program.

Right now such self-learning programs are still not advanced enough, so that still takes a while. But I think in the next century human traders might become obsolete, once such programs can use everything a normal human can use. I actually...
Spot on. But I do think it will be sooner than later. It is already ocurring.

It will get to a point the 'jobs' will belong to those with ingenuity and those who can continually improve so called bots.

Frankly I think its pretty exiting!
  • #80
  • Apr 25, 2011 11:21am Apr 25, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Pipalicious
Spot on. But I do think it will be sooner than later. It is already ocurring.

It will get to a point the 'jobs' will belong to those with ingenuity and those who can continually improve so called bots.

Frankly I think its pretty exiting!
yep, and maybe a shift to a new kind of economy.
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