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Elliot wave, Harmonic And Ichimoku in CHINESE STYLE

  • #4,861
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:07am Apr 22, 2011 8:07am
Quoting Sixer
MiZa,

are you sure that the price pattern of the EURUSD since the low at 1.18 is impulsive?

http://img594.imageshack.us/i/eurusdd214.gif/

Sixer
sure dieter, neither wave A n W.

I was mentioned on last post that we are in progressing wave 3 after Leading Diagonal on W1 in your chart..

Then I am in right count..AND vincy is right!
my strength in shorterm .. But vincy is all of it especially swing and longterm
(larger wave)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post4482785



We need discuss and i can't make it alone..braindiscussing is must ..everyone

and so What about you in Delta? Dear Vincy, i hope u also reply this ...

Anyway, Happy Good Friday!
Attached Images
  • #4,862
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:11am Apr 22, 2011 8:11am
Hello traders,

with yesterdays break of 74,17 in UDX, one have to do a serious recount of UDX.

So I thought it would be appropriate to reevaluate the count for EURUSD, too.

We have seen that UDX and EURUSD have moved over the last years nearly mirror inverted. Maybe this can continue.

The UDX has the following "ingredients":


EUR 57,6%
JPY 13,6%
GBP 11,9%
CAD 9,1%
SEK 4,2%
CHF 3,6%

So nearly 58% of UDX consists of EUR.

It is no question, which of EUR and USD is the stronger currency. We have to ask, which one is the weaker, which one will eventually default earlier.

With some other "stronger" currencies in the basket, UDX may suffer more than USDEUR. So it might be, that EURUSD finds a top a little bit earlier than UDX finds a bottom. But I think, that that will happen at nearly the same time.

Headache caused the move down in EURUSD from 1.51x to 1.18x. One can count it as impulse, one can even so count it as corrective move.

Those of you which read my blog frequently know, that I fairly often (always) use Awesome Oscillator (AO) to judge the waves.

Each time AO shows the highest/lowest readings at the end of a move one should either think that it was not an impulse but a C wave (C wave impulse) or one is looking at a commodity chart (commodities show highest pressure normally in its wave 5).

So back again to the movement from 1.51x to 1.18x. Judging it with AO and RSI I tend to belive that that is an ABC correction after all. Now with the situation in UDX (here we have right now no other chance as to label it as an ABC impulse), I feel confident, that that move in the end was only an ABC correction.

This issue clearly shows, that EW is a tricky thing. It is tricky, since one often tends to count what one belives and not that what is really in the cards. And that is a very serious issue especially in Forex, since the waves here are not as clear as one would like to see. We have often the situation, that we can count one wave corrective and impulsive at the same time. We should be every time remembered, that our count should fit with RSI and AO readings as well as with sentiment data.

So what do we see in this "new"count?

We are in Cycle wave 2 (green) (down) of Supercycle wave 3 (magenta) (up).

In Cycle wave 2 we are right now in Primary wave B (yellow) (up) which could have been already finished on last Thursday at 4648, or will eventually extend in the area of 1.51 to 1.55. This count will only be invalidated with a movement above 1.6037, since Cycle wave 2 can not go beyond the start of Cycle wave 1.

Primary B (yellow) of Cycle wave 2 (green) has traced out so far a WXY pattern. Here we are in wave Y.

This wave Y consists so far out of a double "three" (ABC-x-ABC). The second ABC is now a little bit more than 61.8% of the first ABC. It has to reach 5295 to get eaqual (but is not necessary).

Right now price has got stopped at a serious fib cluster. At 4683 wave aqua Y is 100% of aqua W.
At the same time we are at the 61.8% retracement of 1.60x and 1.232x (wave yellow A).

At 5239, 5295 and 5448 we have the next fib cluster.



Projections:

If we stopped at 4648, wave yellow C should reach normally 100-165% of wave A. That would give targets between 1,08x and 0.85x.

If we end at the 52x level, wave yellow C should see targets between 1.16 and 0.93

If we get a running flat, prices should end between 1.30 and 1.24. But running flats are rare. EWP states, that nine times out of ten you will find, that it was not a running flat but wrong counting.

My experience on that: on small TF like 1 5 or 15min you can see them regularly, but on big TF's they are really very rare.



4648 is a very important Murrey Math level on weekly, daily, 4h, 1h TF. It is at this TF's the 8/8 resistance line which should be very hard to break through (at least at the first attempt). If this line is not cracked, we can easily drop 7-9 octave lines without a long look back.

+1/8 and +2/8 lines on weekly TF at 4892 and 5136.


Maybe later more analyses.

Wish all of you a very nice weekend.


Best to you,

Markus
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  • #4,863
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:20am Apr 22, 2011 8:20am
MiZa,


the cycle consideration shows that the upmove starting middle of jan can last until mid or end of june – there, the price pattern since the low at 1.18 would be finished:


http://img13.imageshack.us/i/deurusdd214.gif/


Sixer
  • #4,864
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:23am Apr 22, 2011 8:23am
Quoting longshot_nl
my view on USD/CHF.
i am only trading it if i like setup on lower TF so i can move SL to BE.
very good, Bob


Quoting infinitus
Hello traders,

with yesterdays break of 74,17 in UDX, one have to do a serious recount of UDX.

So I thought it would be appropriate to reevaluate the count for EURUSD, too.

We have seen that UDX and EURUSD have moved over the last years nearly mirror inverted. Maybe this can continue.

The UDX has the following "ingredients":...
hmmmmmmmmmmmm

EW + Oscillator/Indicator + Sentiment Data/Data Figures/Stats + All about Fundamentals + Time Analysis = PERFERCT!!!
  • #4,865
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:54am Apr 22, 2011 8:54am
Quoting Sixer
MiZa,


the cycle consideration shows that the upmove starting middle of jan can last until mid or end of june – there, the price pattern since the low at 1.18 would be finished:


http://img13.imageshack.us/i/deurusdd214.gif/


Sixer

So..... I think VINCY IS RIGHT FROM HIS OLD LAST CHART THAT ANALYZED OF EURO
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=95
I still remember he said to me... " I against with Bob Prechter!" and My observation
about Mr. Bob's counts from early was downtrend,, but now the answer.. we can see right now together as witness

I believe this thread is so VERY EXPENSIVE!
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  • #4,866
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:00am Apr 22, 2011 9:00am
longshot_nl,


i assume that wave “4” in your EURUSD count is still running – i could became an irregular flat:


http://img42.imageshack.us/i/deurusd5214.gif/


Sixer
  • #4,867
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:02am Apr 22, 2011 9:02am
and.. i keep waiting on you guys

we discuss and riding the pips together

conflict conclusion is doesn't matter... we are one family here

Markus, Sixer and Bob.. GREAT!!!
  • #4,868
  • Edited 9:11am Apr 22, 2011 9:03am | Edited 9:11am
Thanks for the Elliot wave knowledge discussion.
what i'm thinking is this technology is useless for long term, because it's too late when you find you are wrong, so i just use this in the short term. there's so much things need to read and study
  • #4,869
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:25am Apr 22, 2011 9:25am
Quoting smilemiz
So..... I think VINCY IS RIGHT FROM HIS OLD LAST CHART THAT ANALYZED OF EURO


I believe this thread is so VERY EXPENSIVE!
Hi Miza my dear :-)

how are things going? Hope all is well. Missed you the last week.


Regarding that chart you showed:

It implies, that we are in a wave 4, I showed that we are in a supercycle wave 2.

Hmmmmm, I think we have to get EURUSD data which go further back to resolve this problem.

But honestly, I know some sources calculated the EURUSD based on historical data of the ingredients of the EURO. But I think that we can not really use this data, since it is more complicated.

With the foundation of the EURO each country had to give up their own currencies and their own monetary system, especially interest rates. So all things changed for the valuation.

I think one can only relay to the data starting 2002, maybe 1999 (Euro as book money).

Therefore I use UDX so to say as proxy, to get a clue were we might stand.

Maybe you can take a look at Binve's analysis, which is very good

http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blo...long-term.html

See also here for DXY:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=DTWEXM,


So, all we have to do is to find a way to conclude if we are in a Cycle wave 2 of a Supercyle wave 3 (EWI-, Binve- and my case)

or

in Supercycle wave 4 (your and Vincy's case).

Any ideas to solve the problem?


Best to you,

Markus
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  • #4,870
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:34am Apr 22, 2011 9:34am
Quoting infinitus
Hello traders,

with yesterdays break of 74,17 in UDX, one have to do a serious recount of UDX.

So I thought it would be appropriate to reevaluate the count for EURUSD, too.

We have seen that UDX and EURUSD have moved over the last years nearly mirror inverted. Maybe this can continue.

The UDX has the following "ingredients":...
WOW !

Klasse ... und jetzt noch das mit weißem Hintergrund bei den CHARTS ... dann kriege ich auch nicht mehr Augenweh davon ...

BTW last time you did tell us that move down from 1.514xx area towards 1.186xx has been IMPULSE ... da war ich schon nicht ganz so einverstanden mit ...

But I know ... verdammt schwer das ... and at a certain stage we must be able to reverse all that ...

Wie auch immer ... kann auch als KORREKTUR angesehen werden ... heute sagst Du es ja selbst ...

Thanks for your POST here ... sehr schön und ausführlich ... as far as I remember ... BAR CHARTS are giving us good results in judging such things ...

I will reply later my dear Fini ...

Possibly to early to call a reversal in place ... but corrective downside should be in the cards ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,871
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:46am Apr 22, 2011 9:46am
Quoting smilemiz
So..... I think VINCY IS RIGHT FROM HIS OLD LAST CHART THAT ANALYZED OF EURO
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...7&postcount=95
I still remember he said to me... " I against with Bob Prechter!" and My observation
about Mr. Bob's counts from early was downtrend,, but now the answer.. we can see right now together as witness

I believe this thread is so VERY EXPENSIVE!
Hi Miza,

to chart on monthly is dangerous, because there are many information that get lost. Try it on weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,872
  • Apr 22, 2011 10:02am Apr 22, 2011 10:02am
Quoting mercy seat
WOW !

Klasse ... und jetzt noch das mit weißem Hintergrund bei den CHARTS ... dann kriege ich auch nicht mehr Augenweh davon ...

BTW last time you did tell us that move down from 1.514xx area towards 1.186xx has been IMPULSE ... da war ich schon nicht ganz so einverstanden mit ...

But I know ... verdammt schwer das ... and at a certain stage we must be able to reverse all that ...

Wie auch immer ... kann auch als KORREKTUR angesehen werden ... heute sagst Du es ja selbst ...

Thanks for your POST here ... sehr schön und ausführlich...


Hi Mercy,

weißer Charthintergrund geht bei mir nicht. Da bekomme ich Augenschmerzen. Tut mir leid.....


Yes, the move down from 1.52 to 1.18 I had labeled as an impulse. The wish was the father of the thought, I think. EWI had/has it labeled that way, too (impulse), so I am in good company (hehehe) here.

But as I wrote: we should everytime be remembered, that we should not count what we would like to see or believe, but to count what is really in the cards. That is more true for trading.......

For labeling I use candle stick charts. Normally you can see the body and the wicks of the candle, but to display such a huge timeframe I had to zoom out. The result was that you can not see the body and the wicks (only a line).

For calling a top:

yes, that is to early. We have to wait and see. If the top was not in, it may target around 52.

Have you already painted the easter eggs?


Schönes Osterwochenende,

Markus
  • #4,873
  • Apr 22, 2011 10:26am Apr 22, 2011 10:26am
Food for thought:

The idea:


Thesis:

Major currencies (better pairs) can not be in an impulsive mode. If it would be, the outcome for 1 currency of the pair would sometimes result in a complete devastation.

Yes, we can see such things. But the question is:

How likely is this with major currencies?

How likely is this with markets that are really tight connected to each other?

How likely is it, that the demise of one currency will not lead to the demise of the other currency, too?


So my idea:

Major currencies are floating around each other in huge corrective modes, but in the end they find an equilibrium every here and then.

Therefore we might only label the moves as huge ABC or wxy moves.


Would like to discuss that here :-)
  • #4,874
  • Apr 22, 2011 11:23am Apr 22, 2011 11:23am
infinitus: have you tried your analysis with a more equally weighted index + replace sek with aud. give it a try. build yourself an euro index that way too.

now take 3 things into consideration, eurusd + both indices.
  • #4,875
  • Apr 22, 2011 1:01pm Apr 22, 2011 1:01pm
Quoting infinitus
Food for thought:

The idea:


Thesis:

Major currencies (better pairs) can not be in an impulsive mode. If it would be, the outcome for 1 currency of the pair would sometimes result in a complete devastation.

Yes, we can see such things. But the question is:

How likely is this with major currencies?

How likely is this with markets that are really tight connected to each other?

How likely is it, that the demise of one currency will not lead to the demise of the other currency, too?


So my idea:

Major currencies are floating around each other...

Yes ... somehow it is that way ... you may come to that conclusion if you look at the larger history for all those major currency pairs ... and if we do like it or not ... from historical point of view the US-Dollar is a principal currency value in its own ...

A PRINCIPAL => EIN ECHTER PRINZIPAL !

Im wahrsten Sinne des Wortes ...


For that reason ... the American People may still have that feeling :

"Hey ... Dollar is down ... so what!? Das kratzt mich herzlich wenig hier."

But back to your thesis ... Elliottwise a pair can be stuck in an impulse mode for a while of course ... and there must not be a complete devastation inevitably ...

Das fordert die Theorie auch gar nicht ... es ist ein zyklisches Modell ... eine universelle Naturkonstante ... as those cycles can change even then ... when an impulse has been detected before ... which is valid for a certain period ... it can come to an end and reverse with another one, a new impulse, against the previous one ...

Moreover it always depends on which time frame you are focused at the point of time when you try to judge it ...

Es gibt durchaus Profis ... die sehen die Bewegung von 1.6040 bis nach 1.2330 ... und 1.2330 bis 1.5140 ... 1.5140 bis 1.1870 ... lediglich als übergeordete Korrektur an ...

Sorry ... I cannot express all that in ENGLISH ... ich komme leider zu schnell sprachlich an meine Grenze ...

But Elliott is not that perfect as many may have wished ... auch Elliott ist kein in sich geschlossenes System ...

Es ist ein an der Natur durch Beobachtungen entlehntes Denkmodell ... und keineswegs so perfekt wie viele sich das glauben oder sich wünschen ...

Vielleicht gibt es auch deshalb das "HINTERTÜRCHEN" von den sogenannten "HIDDEN COUNTS" ...



;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-22_18hß8_ EURUSD _ xWeekly _ (5Yr) bar + FIBO.PNG Size: 18 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,876
  • Apr 22, 2011 1:17pm Apr 22, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting mercy seat
Yes ... somehow it is that way ... you may come to that conclusion if you look at the larger history for all those major currency pairs ... and if we do like it or not ... from historical point of view the US-Dollar is a principal currency value in its own ...

A PRINCIPAL...

Moreover I do remember very well ... as if it has been yesterday ... that during those years when the EURO went up ... all those professional Elliott experts did explain that long time move up from 0.82xx as an impulse extention in more than 9 and 11 zigzag counts (not five) ...

Nur mal so als kleiner Nachtrag ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,877
  • Apr 22, 2011 2:28pm Apr 22, 2011 2:28pm
I gotta say this thread is filled with valuable info for someone who's learning about EW such as myself. Thanks for all the great charts!
  • #4,878
  • Apr 22, 2011 2:40pm Apr 22, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting infinitus
Food for thought:

The idea:


Thesis:

Major currencies (better pairs) can not be in an impulsive mode. If it would be, the outcome for 1 currency of the pair would sometimes result in a complete devastation.

Yes, we can see such things. But the question is:

How likely is this with major currencies?

How likely is this with markets that are really tight connected to each other?

How likely is it, that the demise of one currency will not lead to the demise of the other currency, too?


So my idea:

Major currencies are floating around each other...

I did play a little bit with my chartstation ...

Here is a more than 30-Yrs flashback on EUR/USD ... which has been recorded before 1999 (official launching date as single currency) as well ... as it has been known as "ECU" ...

XEU/USD has been the ISO-CODE ...


And as you can see ... lowest has not been 0.82-somewhat ...

It has been 0.63-irgendwas ... und auch daran kann ich mich noch erinnern ... as USD/DEM has been one last time at an extrem level within those days ...




;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-22_19h13_ EURUSD _ xxMonthly _ (500) bar + FIBO.PNG Size: 22 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,879
  • Apr 22, 2011 3:40pm Apr 22, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting infinitus
Food for thought:

The idea:


Thesis:

Major currencies (better pairs) can not be in an impulsive mode. If it would be, the outcome for 1 currency of the pair would sometimes result in a complete devastation.

Yes, we can see such things. But the question is:

How likely is this with major currencies?

How likely is this with markets that are really tight connected to each other?

How likely is it, that the demise of one currency will not lead to the demise of the other currency, too?


So my idea:

Major currencies are floating around each other...

Hmm ... jawollo ... there must be an equilib at least ...

I did have a look at the EURO/DOLLAR and then I did use a REGRESSION CHANNEL ...

Overall (more than 30-Years period) this channel goes up ... would be nice if I could show this "Spiegelverkehrt" - ähh - "mirror-inverted" as well ... as I am still used to the old kind of view as it has been CHARTED during those beautiful USD/DEM aeons ...

Interessant auch bei der "Spielerei" mit dem Gedanken, dass die FIBO-Levels weitestgehend recht gut passen wollen ... ganz gleich ob rückwärts (ältere Hoch und Tiefs) oder vorwärts (jüngere Ereignisse) eingesetzt ...

Mache es gut erst mal ... und nee - meine Eier bleiben evtl. dann doch vorerst lieber schön ungefärbt





;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-22_22h19_ EURUSD _ xxMonthly _ (500) bar + EQUILIB + FIBO.PNG Size: 23 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #4,880
  • Apr 22, 2011 4:20pm Apr 22, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting mercy seat
Yes ... somehow it is that way ... you may come to that conclusion if you look at the larger history for all those major currency pairs ... and if we do like it or not ... from historical point of view the US-Dollar is a principal currency value in its own ...

A PRINCIPAL...
Hey Mercy,

many thanks for your thoughts.

EW deals with the thought, that there has to be progress. Therefore 5 wave impulse up, and 3 wave corrective down. If you go through multiple cycles, you should have progress. I think, that defaulting was not part of nature or Elliott Wave theory.

And yes, at the end of an 5 wave impulse (e.g. up), you get an impulse down (wave A), but the correction ABC normally does not take back all the progress of the 1-2-3-4-5 impulse up. And it will never go under the starting point of wave 1.

Therefore I think that most currencies are stuck in an ABC-ABC...... mode, or kind of an endless triangle.

Or maybe we have to change the rules in that way, that we allow, that the currencies of the pair can switch their "destination" or "essential provision", meaning that the currency which was destined to grow over time can switch at a certain point to the loser and vice versa.

I have asked EWI for their opinion and am looking forward to read their reply. I will cite the answer here.
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