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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #701
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:37am Apr 21, 2011 2:37am
Quoting Pipstrumpf
The week is not over yet but I thought just for the sake its always good to look forwards.

Attachment

Is it a top? EUR/USD will show the way, so lets see.
According to Forexlive there is a very large barrier option (2 yards) sitting around 1.08. Exactly where the upper trend channel line is on the weekly. Lets see how well this option will be defended.

Cheers
  • #702
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:40am Apr 21, 2011 2:40am
Quoting APupil
Rudd's perfectly right:

"Australian government is not in the business of regulating exchange rates !"

They're not regulating, just making the Aussie insane and keep the insane going !!!

This is already a dirty intervention ---dirty manipulation !!!

That's true face of them !--Hypocrite !!!
in subrime crises rba was buying aud at 0.54
  • #703
  • Apr 21, 2011 4:48am Apr 21, 2011 4:48am
from what I see, now, is a nice scalping range between ~ 1.0730 and 1.0775. Break above or below will give direction.
  • #704
  • Apr 21, 2011 5:06am Apr 21, 2011 5:06am
Looks like it is running out of steam around the highs here pullback / consolidation time now.
  • #705
  • Apr 21, 2011 7:57am Apr 21, 2011 7:57am
I have pending sellstop at 1.0730 SL 1.0777

If it goes on well, many PIP here!!!
  • #706
  • Apr 21, 2011 8:51am Apr 21, 2011 8:51am
Hi Forexia,
Ettrader made a good explaination of why price goes up when retail is short. Let me expand with my 2 pips worth:
If retail shorts the market, someone has to take the long position, that would be brokers and bankers. So if retail is short brokers and bankers want the price to go up until they squeze out the shorts and get their money back. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #707
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:53am Apr 21, 2011 9:53am
Australia seems like it is prepared to sacrifice tourism, manufacturing, education and housing in order to keep the currency as high as possible is the way I read this article with Kevin Rudd. Means China's inflation will get worse as they manipulate their currency lower but import commodities at higher prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...rudd-says.html
  • #708
  • Apr 21, 2011 10:36am Apr 21, 2011 10:36am
Quoting jerrycollie
Hi Forexia,
Ettrader made a good explaination of why price goes up when retail is short. Let me expand with my 2 pips worth:
If retail shorts the market, someone has to take the long position, that would be brokers and bankers. So if retail is short brokers and bankers want the price to go up until they squeze out the shorts and get their money back. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Thanks Jerry for your explanation. I just can't imagine anybody would want to short when the trend is clearly up, maybe they scalpers but they are opened positions... Oh well, not my problem.

Thanks once again for your help. I have learned a lot here.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #709
  • Edited Apr 22, 2011 8:59am Apr 21, 2011 10:04pm | Edited Apr 22, 2011 8:59am
The US Government should reach its debt ceiling in the first half of May. The Repulicans are demanding big cuts in spending. The Democrats are resisting. If they fail to reach an agreement to raise the debt limit, the US could default on its debt. This has never happened before in the US. If it did, it would raise interest rates and dump the US into a recession along with the rest of the world. What would this do to AUD/USD, and the other USD pairs, I wonder? I would expect the value of the Dollar to drop; but during a recession the value of the Dollar goes up. Expect more volatility. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
  • #710
  • Apr 22, 2011 1:09am Apr 22, 2011 1:09am
Hi all, price didn't pick my pending short yesterday. I left the entry @ the same level (1.0803). A more accurate entry for today would have been from 1.0819 but since this demo trade is just for illustrative purpose, I'll let the order be. I see GBPAUD dropping 340pips from yesterday's high before finding support. Those who wish can take due advantage of it. Happy trading! Meshach
  • #711
  • Apr 22, 2011 1:28am Apr 22, 2011 1:28am
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi all, price didn't pick my pending short yesterday. I left the entry @ the same level (1.0803). A more accurate entry for today would have been from 1.0819 but since this demo trade is just for illustrative purpose, I'll let the order be. I see GBPAUD dropping 340pips from yesterday's high before finding support. Those who wish can take due advantage of it. Happy trading! Meshach
What makes you think GBPAUD falling by 300+ pips?
Fall seven times, stand up Eight! #GGMU
  • #712
  • Apr 22, 2011 3:21am Apr 22, 2011 3:21am
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi all, price didn't pick my pending short yesterday. I left the entry @ the same level (1.0803). A more accurate entry for today would have been from 1.0819 but since this demo trade is just for illustrative purpose, I'll let the order be. I see GBPAUD dropping 340pips from yesterday's high before finding support. Those who wish can take due advantage of it. Happy trading! Meshach
So instead of suggesting going short GBPUSD, you're suggesting going short AUDUSD and GBPAUD? I don't see the logic in two trades vice one, nor do I see any justification on your part for either trade. Care to provide details?

I disagree with the short AUDUSD; you're trying to call a top when the USD is in meltdown mode. And in case you missed this story from Wednesday, this would continue the USD meltdown: http://imarketnews.com/node/29757
To further complicate USD problems, the US is bumping up against the debt ceiling with no sign that even a rough compromise has been reached. Then add in helo ben bernank's open press conference next Wednesday.
That's a lot of high risk scenarios for the USD; the best it can do in any of the above situations is break even. But if one or more of the above go poorly, DXY could easily drop below 70 very quickly.
  • #713
  • Apr 22, 2011 3:54am Apr 22, 2011 3:54am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
So instead of suggesting going short GBPUSD, you're suggesting going short AUDUSD and GBPAUD?...
I posted the chart for GBPAUD on the thread "trading for those with a 9-5 job" under trading journals. Happy trading! Meshach.
  • #714
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:00am Apr 22, 2011 8:00am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
So instead of suggesting going short GBPUSD, you're suggesting going short AUDUSD and GBPAUD? I don't see the logic in two trades vice one, nor do I see any justification on your part for either trade. Care to provide details?

I disagree with the short AUDUSD; you're trying to call a top when the USD is in meltdown mode. And in case you missed this story from Wednesday, this would continue the USD meltdown: http://imarketnews.com/node/29757
To further complicate USD problems, the US is bumping up against the debt ceiling with no sign...
I agree 100% Who are we to call the top? we are just retail traders who lack the information to make an informed decision. Calling the top is just crazy! Similiar to driving on the wrong side of the road.....WHY? WHHHHHHHYYYYYYY???
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #715
  • Apr 23, 2011 10:58pm Apr 23, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting frothy
I agree 100% Who are we to call the top? we are just retail traders who lack the information to make an informed decision. Calling the top is just crazy! Similiar to driving on the wrong side of the road.....WHY? WHHHHHHHYYYYYYY???
Hi bro, maybe we would play a simple game next week in which I'll give price levels for entry (two buy levels and two sell levels). I would prefer working with GBPUSD. I would like to see how far away from the top I get each time. Brother, hear me and hear me good, I am NOT like every other trader. I am a trader with a difference! The Monarch of the Universe indwells me. I care bro, have a nice day. Meshach
  • #716
  • Apr 24, 2011 10:54am Apr 24, 2011 10:54am
This can't be good for USD: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201...c_13842843.htm

China should cap forex reserves at 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars: China banker



English.news.cn 2011-04-23



BEIJING, April 23 (Xinhua) -- China should reduce its excessive foreign exchange reserves and further diversify its holdings, Tang Shuangning, chairman of China Everbright Group, said on Saturday.
The amount of foreign exchange reserves should be restricted to between 800 billion to 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars, Tang told a forum in Beijing, saying that the current reserve amount is too high.
China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 197.4 billion U.S. dollars in the first three months of this year to 3.04 trillion U.S. dollars by the end of March.
Tang's remarks echoed the stance of Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, who said on Monday that China's foreign exchange reserves "exceed our reasonable requirement" and that the government should upgrade and diversify its foreign exchange management using the excessive reserves.
Meanwhile, Xia Bin, a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, said on Tuesday that 1 trillion U.S. dollars would be sufficient. He added that China should invest its foreign exchange reserves more strategically, using them to acquire resources and technology needed for the real economy.
Tang also said that China should further diversify its foreign exchange holdings. He suggested five channels for using the reserves, including replenishing state-owned capital in key sectors and enterprises, purchasing strategic resources, expanding overseas investment, issuing foreign bonds and improving national welfare in areas like education and health.
However, these strategies can only treat the symptoms but not the root cause, he said, noting that the key is to reform the mechanism of how the reserves are generated and managed.
  • #717
  • Apr 24, 2011 6:35pm Apr 24, 2011 6:35pm
Possibility of a top at 1.1 on audusd?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdmn.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #718
  • Apr 24, 2011 8:31pm Apr 24, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
So instead of suggesting going short GBPUSD, you're suggesting going short AUDUSD and GBPAUD?...
I am SHORT ON AUDUSD ENTRY 1.0770 SL 1.0790 TP1 1.670 TP2 1.0600
  • #719
  • Apr 24, 2011 8:35pm Apr 24, 2011 8:35pm
[quote=evelee8;4560972]PPI closed @ 1.2%. (> expectation)
Heavy sell off of the pair around the world for people who are shorting the position upon this good news..
Aussie peak @ 1.0753 -> down to 1.0741 and peak to 1.0747 (pattern of more people Long than Short).

Risk Testing @ 0.01 Long @ 1.0739 - TP 1.08 (+61 pips).

Updates:
Closed 0.01 Long @ 1.0739 - TP 1.07 (+51 pips). (adjusted TP to take some profits)
Aussie peak to 1.0778 near to the top 1.08.

Looking for another risk testing for Long opportunities @ ~1.07.
  • #720
  • Apr 24, 2011 8:36pm Apr 24, 2011 8:36pm
I am SHORT ON AUDUSD ENTRY 1.0770 SL 1.0790 TP1 1.670 TP2 1.0600
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