EU and GU Advanced Technical Analysis

Hi,

I've decided to return to FF and start a new thread for trading EU and GU pairs. This is not a system-based thread, this is a place where anybody can come and feel free to post their vision of the most current situation on EU and GU charts.


I wanted to start this thread because I believe that in order to trade consistently and profitably, one should constantly analize the market and come up with different scenarios of the future price action. This is what gives trader an edge - knowing all the "I will do this, if price does that" scenarios.

Regards,
snu.

Okay, lets start right away. Below I'll show what we had on EU this morning and what I'm expecting next.

Attached is a 4H chart of EU, i've labeled graph according to its most recent price action, which lead me to believe that H&S was forming on EU earlier this day. Entry should've been made from a lower TF using any indicator-based system you prefer. Depending on your appetite and MM techniques you could've earned anywhere between 40 and 200 pips today only trading the EU pair.

Now I expect some retracement on 4H chart, then the formation of the Lower High (LH) and then I will look for short opportunities on the lower TF. Possible areas of retracement are given by fib numbers of the last impulse move down.

GU 4H chart:

Gu have tested the low of previous week which is a key support lvl. We could see either a bounce or a continuation of a down move after some sort of consolidation. Right now it looks like the level is being rejected.
We had a volatile day on GU today, so I believe Asia session will be low volatility and by tomorrow's EU session we should get a clear idea on further GU price action.

Either way I will watch lower TF for further information on what GU is going to do.

based on up wave start from 11 jan 2011, buyers still dominate price movement. After making new high on 12 April 2011, buyers could't accept higher price that sellers offer.

based on down wave start from 12 April 2011, price still playing below Seller Balance 1.4248.


On time based perspectif, price couldn't play below daily seller balance, and now price at bsb area. I try to place my first sell here because i assume that price couln't break daily median and mean and daily seller balance is my first target, my second target is buyer balance on up wave. I will cut loss my position if price could play above daily bsb

Current situation:

EU is testing previous week high.
I expect some sort of retracement before a continuation of an up move.
Nice area of resistance is given by a fib cluster (See chart)

We could see a pullback or a consolidation around this high area.

We have similar situation on GU

It has tested previous week resistance lvl. I want to see consolidation of 4 to 8 hours here and then i will look for entry. Nice resistance area is arount 61 retracement (30 Min chart) I want to see GU come down there, then give me a setup to enter.

... in Europe session - waiting for entry DOWN - for 40 pips...

I see several things on EU graph which make me believe that EU should go down, I'll wait for confirmation and then enter short if price closes below 1.4560

8H and 4H IB -BREAKOUT on Increasing MOM
RSI BAMM - 138% -162% -208% move

Entry Bar have to be on S/R level, MA cross, THIS Bar CLOSE > 5-7 HIGHS of previous bars

GU todays up entry

Buyers dominate on every wave, tried to catch small retrace from this up wave, already put my bep +1

Possible scenario

My EU scenarios

1. For an up move i will wait for the right neck and right shoulder with confirmation of 4H momentum and MACD on 30M TF as per pic 1.

2. For the down move I want to see break of the support around the 1.4530 area and retest of it as a resistance

EU currently sits on support (white line)

1. I will consider EU down if it breaks previous low. with targets based on fib retracement lvls.

2. I will consider EU up if it breaks overhead TL and pulls back to it.

EU 4H

4H bar pierced 2 EMA's
We have 3-bar divergence on AO
We're in an uptrend on 4H EU, I will wait for the confirmation bar (another 4H) which will not touch 10 MA and then will look for entry from pullback on 30M TF.
My entry will be in 4-8 hours.

1. 4 hour Divergence
2. MACD 1hour - BUY ( histogram in positive zone -INCREASING )
3.2 period TrendLine Breakout + re-test of trendLine break
4. Frankfurt BOX ( 5-8 GMT - London BOX 6-9 GMT)

EU

We had breakout and retracement to support area (upper white line).

I will look for up today using CCI as my trigger.

Regards.

Entry is forming as per picture.

I'll wait for a bar close for a 30M confirmation. Target is 1.6595 just below the 1.66 resistance

1. to-days UP move broke 3 days High ( this movement 1 of 12hour period)

2. I have to wait 2-3 4Hour for the next move

3. 1-st 4Hour is IB