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  • #681
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:59pm Apr 20, 2011 9:59pm
maybe itll go to .89 now......lol
  • #682
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:03pm Apr 20, 2011 10:03pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Retail traders expecting a retrace because 'it can't go any higher without a correction'.
That high % of retail traders wanting to pick top?? Well, I hope they have really wide SL. Prices are going to go up higher before reversing.

Thanks Ifly.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #683
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:03pm Apr 20, 2011 10:03pm
I've got a Fib here which I am taking a small short on.

http://i51.tinypic.com/1z2eohj.gif
  • #684
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:03pm Apr 20, 2011 10:03pm
there is two types of money:
1) smart money
2) dumb money

all of us are dumb money; which is to say we have to follow the trends and reversal compared to the smart money which always makes money and moves the market (note: dumb money doenst mean the the people are dumb, just that they can controll the market and make money following the smart money - which some people make 200k a year trading - far from dumb).

example: to buy you have to have someone willing to sell. therefore right now while most people are buying the audusd the smart money is selling it to the dumb money at a price:
lets say:
1) 1.070
2) 1.075
3) 1.080
4) 1.085

when the smart money "runs out of cash" they stop selling which then the price starts to drop. when it does hey start to buy the market while the dumb money sells the market the smart money will buy the market as follows:
1) all the lots they sold at 1.085 the buy back at 1.080
2) all the lots they sold at 1.080 the buy back at 1.075
3) all the lots they sold at 1.075 the buy back at 1.070
4) all the lots they sold at 1.070 the buy back at 1.065

this continues until the smart money runs out of cash for buying and then the market start to go back up...and the reverse process happens.


therefore when you start to see that "drying up" period some of us in the dumb money try to calculate when the smart money has had enough and the market reverse. however, this time for me. i lost over 20% doing that. normally not a good idea (however, i went form 312 dollars to 236 dollars - so who cares; however, if you are trading real money then probably not a good idea)

dumb money = lots of people with small size accounts (less than 1 million)
smart money = few people with large account (like buffet)

hope that helps.


Quoting Forexia
NP. Hope it helps your trading. I still don't get why there would be so many short interest in a pair that's been trending up so much thou...
  • #685
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:11pm Apr 20, 2011 10:11pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
there is two types of money:
1) smart money
2) dumb money

all of us are dumb money; which is to say we have to follow the trends and reversal compared to the smart money which always makes money and moves the market (note: dumb money doenst mean the the people are dumb, just that they can controll the market and make money following the smart money - which some people make 200k a year trading - far from dumb).

example: to buy you have to have someone willing to sell. therefore right now while most people are buying the audusd the smart money...
Thanks for the explanation and sorry about your loss. But the majority of the accounts with Oanda should be dumb money though like you and me. How could they afford to be like smart money?

And yet, Oanda claims 38% of their accounts are in the green. Oh I guess that's the 62% of the accounts that could be in the water...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #686
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:15pm Apr 20, 2011 10:15pm
yes, i would agree. dumb money doesnt do anything to move the market except in a a buy or selling after news which is short lived (note: that when the smart money buys and sell because they have so many lot to get rid of they have to wait till the dumb money is ready to buy and sell.


Quoting Forexia
Thanks for the explanation and sorry about your loss. But the majority of the accounts with Oanda should be dumb money though like you and me. How could they afford to be like smart money?

And yet, Oanda claims 38% of their accounts are in the green. Oh I guess that's the 62% of the accounts that could be in the water...
  • #687
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:19pm Apr 20, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
there is two types of money:
1) smart money
2) dumb money

all of us are dumb money; which is to say we have to follow the trends and reversal compared to the smart money which always makes money and moves the market (note: dumb money doenst mean the the people are dumb, just that they can controll the market and make money following the smart money - which some people make 200k a year trading - far from dumb).

example: to buy you have to have someone willing to sell....
Hi ma'am,
did you see my post to fx-petra? Can you please also do same on a demo acct? Just place pending orders with the TP at the 4 levels I gave.
I appreciate.
Thanks.
Meshach
  • #688
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:32pm Apr 20, 2011 10:32pm
first, i should had waited till now and i would have been making money instead of recovering from loses!
second, i trade for fun, if i had 20k in my account i would have sat on the sidelines
third, if you are going to short, i shorted at the top. we will see how this goes.
fourth, i have a tight stop, so if it goes up; i will short again at 1.08.


we will see what happens. i have a really tight stop. if it drops like a rock i most likely break even this week. if not i will loss another 2%.

update: i move my stop to entry point.


Quoting forexcompoun
Hi ma'am,
did you see my post to fx-petra? Can you please also do same on a demo acct? Just place pending orders with the TP at the 4 levels I gave.
I appreciate.
Thanks.
Meshach
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.PNG Size: 51 KB
  • #689
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:34pm Apr 20, 2011 10:34pm
Hi all,
for the purpose of illustrating my point about picking temporary tops and bottoms as I mentioned earlier to fx-petra, I have created a $10,000 demo account with FXOPEN.
I have placed the four orders with entry @ 1.0803 SL 1.0863 and TP 1-4 @
(1) 1.0781
(2) 1.0752
(3) 1.0724
(4) 1.0695

login: 1323243
investor pw: 4oqcikg

As a trader, I have made up my mind to back up my "claims" with real-time facts and figures.
Let's see how this plays out.
Happy trading!
Meshach.
  • #690
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:40pm Apr 20, 2011 10:40pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
first, i should had waited till now and i would have been making money instead of recovering from loses!
second, i trade for fun, if i had 20k in my account i would have sat on the sidelines
third, if you are going to short, i shorted at the top. we will see how this goes.
fourth, i have a tight stop, so if it goes up; i will short again at 1.08.


we will see what happens. i have a really tight stop. if it drops like a rock i most likely break even this week. if not i will loss another 2%.
Very colourful chart you have there ma. When God opened my eyes to the TRUTH about FOREX trading, He gave me nothing else but LINES. Any other thing I place on my chart is either a visual aid or just for "ornamental" purpose.

Let's see how my trade plays out.
Do have a pleasant day ma.
Meshach.
  • #691
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:14pm Apr 20, 2011 11:14pm
i close the short:
entry: 7660
exit: 7527

and now i am long:
long @ 7537
sl @ 7330

it may push to a new high and when it start to stall i will short it again.


Quoting mpurdy1973
first, i should had waited till now and i would have been making money instead of recovering from loses!
second, i trade for fun, if i had 20k in my account i would have sat on the sidelines
third, if you are going to short, i shorted at the top. we will see how this goes.
fourth, i have a tight stop, so if it goes up; i will short again at 1.08.


we will see what happens. i have a really tight stop. if it drops like a rock i most likely break even this week. if not i will loss another 2%.

update: i move my stop to entry point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.PNG Size: 61 KB
  • #692
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:20pm Apr 20, 2011 11:20pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
i close the short:
entry: 7660
exit: 7527

and now i am long:
long @ 7537
sl @ 7330

it may push to a new high and when it start to stall i will short it again.
Aud loves creating rounded patterns, it's doing so now. Looks like we're going to break resistance.
  • #693
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:26pm Apr 20, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting Forexia
I find overall NZD is more volatile than AUD that it has bigger moves but AUD trends more. So far, they follow each other because the two economies are so similiar
Ya - look at the big jump of Aussie - from 0.97 during Japan crisis to 1.07 (+1000 pips) and Kiwi - from 0.71 to 0.80 (+900 pips) - Kiwi has not shoot up that much. But it has potential growth in term of its recovery after the disaster.
  • #694
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:35pm Apr 20, 2011 11:35pm
few observations:
1) the the strong push up you would have thought there would have been a big retracement
2) looks like a bull flag
3) looks like a rounded pattern
4) aussie and kiwi are the only good currencies left

i think we will hit 1.08 if not tonight, then by friday.

i think 1.08 would be a good short again

Quoting myownenemy
Aud loves creating rounded patterns, it's doing so now. Looks like we're going to break resistance.
  • #695
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:38pm Apr 20, 2011 11:38pm
where do you see this currency going? forcaster had it at the beginning of the year at 1.05 - 1.06; however we have blown thru them fast. thats why i am thinking that it could drop fast if it get much higher?

see month chart where this happen in july of 2008 on this pair.


Quoting evelee8
Ya - look at the big jump of Aussie - from 0.97 during Japan crisis to 1.07 (+1000 pips) and Kiwi - from 0.71 to 0.80 (+900 pips) - Kiwi has not shoot up that much. But it has potential growth in term of its recovery after the disaster.
  • #696
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:31am Apr 21, 2011 12:31am
Quoting mpurdy1973
where do you see this currency going? forcaster had it at the beginning of the year at 1.05 - 1.06; however we have blown thru them fast. thats why i am thinking that it could drop fast if it get much higher?

see month chart where this happen in july of 2008 on this pair.
THE question you should be asking is 'how much lower will the USD go'? That's the half of this pair that's driving most of the change. Take a look at some other AUD crosses and see what you think.
  • #697
  • Edited 1:32am Apr 21, 2011 1:15am | Edited 1:32am
its stalling; i dont think we are going to see 1.08 before a drop.

i have my stop locked in one pip above entry. most likely i am going to be taken out.


update: i guess i was wrong on that one; glad i didnt close out positions :-)
update2: i am flat now:

entry: 7537
exit: 7632

going to put in a sell limit at 1.08
  • #698
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:41am Apr 21, 2011 1:41am
Quoting mpurdy1973
where do you see this currency going? forcaster had it at the beginning of the year at 1.05 - 1.06; however we have blown thru them fast. thats why i am thinking that it could drop fast if it get much higher?

see month chart where this happen in july of 2008 on this pair.
Good question. There won't be a finite answer on this since the fact is Au governor has stood out and speak that they won't do any manipulation to the market even thought theIr currency is over-valued and their current fundamental strong economic indicators. UnLike China - they watch n control their currency tightly.

However - 1.08 can be seen as some sell off as quite a number of readings of TP was @ 1.08. So - we can see a small shorting opportunity here.

Good luck to all traders.
  • #699
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:54am Apr 21, 2011 1:54am
Rudd's perfectly right:

"Australian government is not in the business of regulating exchange rates !"

They're not regulating, just making the Aussie insane and keep the insane going !!!

This is already a dirty intervention ---dirty manipulation !!!

That's true face of them !--Hypocrite !!!
  • #700
  • Apr 21, 2011 2:27am Apr 21, 2011 2:27am
Thanks Peaches, I'll take a look.

Quoting peaches
click with right mouse into the chart, go to "options",
you see something like "scale fixed" or "scale fixed 1:1" (sorry my MT4 is not in english). Play around with these options.

But whatever, you got the FE 100 around 1.145, as shown in my weekly chart above.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
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