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  • #661
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:57pm Apr 20, 2011 8:57pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
It looks like there are a metric ton of AUD and EUR shorts. Both of these pairs have the potential to go parabolic north with that high a short interest. It looks like most retail traders are long USD. Not what I expected to see.
Why is that? Wouldn't the price be going down if everybody's shorting it?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #662
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:59pm Apr 20, 2011 8:59pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Wow! I just pulled up the short/long ratio on Oanda. http://fxtrade.oanda.com/

It looks like there are a metric ton of AUD and EUR shorts. Both of these pairs have the potential to go parabolic north with that high a short interest. It looks like most retail traders are long USD. Not what I expected to see.
That was what I was going on about earlier this time around the crowd is convinced the USD will bounce so net longs are very high. In 2008 it was the opposite something like 97% net short on USD - this is what concerns me it suggests to me the USD is about to collapse. On DX 74 is a major support then there's 72 then there's free space to gawd knows where. On AUDUSD I keep seeing short interest building on these surges in price the number is way too high - it's not safe.
  • #663
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:03pm Apr 20, 2011 9:03pm
Quoting mpurdy1973
the fact that is was 1.2 and the market stalled; looks like it is going down soon. it will probably be 1.08 next week; but i think you will see a bound of of 1.056 first.
Ya - a lot factors out there.
As long as there is no bad news or poor economic indicator hitting aussie, china or kiwi and US continue to be pessimistic.. Aussie will still be on the long run.

All of the view is based on several facts and several websites references - that is how the TP and the potential High price was being set daily/weekly.
  • #664
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:06pm Apr 20, 2011 9:06pm
Quoting Forexia
Why is that? Wouldn't the price be going down if everybody's shorting it?
That's retail slugs like you and me. Sovereigns are quietly dumping the USD and diversifying into other currencies. They're primarily running to EUR because it's large enough to be able to handle a lot of the money but a good deal of the sovereign money's flowing into other secondary currencies.
I've read way too many reports recently of central banks diversifying their reserves by reducing USD holdings.

Quoting ettrader
That was what I was going on about earlier this time around the crowd is convinced the USD will bounce so net longs are very high. In 2008 it was the opposite something like 97% net short on USD - this is what concerns me it suggests to me the USD is about to collapse. On DX 74 is a major support then there's 72 then there's free space to gawd knows where. On AUDUSD I keep seeing short interest building on these surges in price the number is way too high - it's not safe.
I'm in violent agreement with you. I hadn't pulled up the Oanda numbers until tonight. I'm very concerned about the USD taking a dirt nap at this point. That's why I think any TA should be done based on DXY, not AUDUSD. It paints a very bleak picture for the USD.
  • #665
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:07pm Apr 20, 2011 9:07pm
where do you go for your research?
i believe you are right. the usd is going nowhere fast! and gbp and eur are not that much better.

Quoting evelee8
Ya - a lot factors out there.
As long as there is no bad news or poor economic indicator hitting aussie, china or kiwi and US continue to be pessimistic.. Aussie will still be on the long run.

All of the view is based on several facts and several websites references - that is how the TP and the potential High price was being set daily/weekly.
  • #666
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:09pm Apr 20, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting Forexia
Why is that? Wouldn't the price be going down if everybody's shorting it?
No the opposite. Shorts are buyers so if you declare a ban on shorts it effectively causes a collapse in price. If you squeeze the shorts they effectively buy at a higher price and at a loss.
  • #667
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:11pm Apr 20, 2011 9:11pm
Hi, I go off trading other pairs for 2 days and come back to find myself 5 pages behind! All caught up now. Thanks everyone for their comments.
Right now I am afraid to go long and afraid to short. Someone please wake me up after the next big pullback and tell me to go long.
Here is a quote from my brother Tom: "I made a trip to Australia in the early 1970's and the Audie was selling at $1.37+ per US Dollar. Shortly after that, Australia sold off all of its gold bullion and the Audie went down to 65 cents, US. It rode within ten cents for the next 30 years."
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  • #668
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:13pm Apr 20, 2011 9:13pm
Quoting ettrader
No the opposite. Shorts are buyers so if you declare a ban on shorts it effectively causes a collapse in price. If you squeeze the shorts they effectively buy at a higher price and at a loss.
Just to confirm short interest shown on that Oanda page are the short positions/orders currently opened at Oanda right?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #669
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:15pm Apr 20, 2011 9:15pm
Quoting FX-Petra
It defies logic how anyone can still be short this pair. I don't even want to be short when we get a correction. It is just to reckless and dangerous. The message boards are litterd with people calling for shorts for the last 6 months. Most of them have gone dark and no longer participate in our forum. You cannot trade when you run out of money.

Regards,
Hi bro,
seeing that you are a 10+v person here, I think it is gonna be better to respond to your post. When I read your comment yesterday night (my time GMT), I made up my mind to call the top for AUDUSD today.

Here goes:

SELL AUDUSD @ 1.0803

Let's see how this goes. Do have a great day sir!
Meshach
  • #670
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:19pm Apr 20, 2011 9:19pm
Quoting FX-Petra
It defies logic how anyone can still be short this pair. I don't even want to be short when we get a correction. It is just to reckless and dangerous. The message boards are litterd with people calling for shorts for the last 6 months. Most of them have gone dark and no longer participate in our forum. You cannot trade when you run out of money.

Regards,
....reposting....just in case some missed it earlier. If you just cannot stand it, and you MUST hit the sell button, do your account a favor and find another pair to short.

regards,
  • #671
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:20pm Apr 20, 2011 9:20pm
Hi mpurdy1973,

Erm... in fact - all currency are doing better than USD except HKD and MXP. (which they are strongly affected by dollar by itself).

GBP started this week with 1.62 and trading @ 1.64 (+ 200 pips)
EUR started this week with 1.42 and trading @ 1.45 (+ 300 pips)

As mentioned - there are a lot of different factors in it.
We can't predict the market out there precisely BUT we can base on the technical indicator and trend analysis to see the pair is going to which direction.

Ultimately - there are different players out of the market world - and the big player in the market and all the small player in the market like me also play an important role in this.
if the player see the potential growth in Eur - they will Long Eur instead of Aussie (which is over-valued now..) and etc.

Updates:
Aussie trade @ 1.0756 now..
  • #672
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:22pm Apr 20, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting Forexia
Just to confirm short interest shown on that Oanda page are the short positions/orders currently opened at Oanda right?
That's my understanding; it's only data from Oanda accounts. It's updated fairly often so I can't imagine them pulling data from somewhere else. If I'm wrong, someone please correct me as I haven't dug too deeply into it.
  • #673
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:28pm Apr 20, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
That's my understanding; it's only data from Oanda accounts. It's updated fairly often so I can't imagine them pulling data from somewhere else. If I'm wrong, someone please correct me as I haven't dug too deeply into it.
Ok good, just want to make sure I understand it correctly. You know Oanda's book is not alone. It's the same thing from Dukascopy's order book too.

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...tch/sentiment/

It's been showing Short interest for both EU, GBP, AUD and NZD all day today from the trader's side (Liquidity consumers they call it). And I have been wondering the same thing myself why would anyone be shorting these pairs when the uptrend's been strong since yesterday. Aren't those traders losing money or are they scalping? Even if they are scalping, wouldn't it be easier for them to scalp into the trend instead of fading the trend?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #674
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:29pm Apr 20, 2011 9:29pm
Do pay attention to Kiwi..
This is another potential growth pair which can shoot higher..
if you think the this pair is going to much over-valued under your view.

As mentioned previously - you need to at least do some of your own research, and know the risk involved in forex trading.

Correlation - NZD climb up slowly whenever Aussie shoot up further

Good luck to all traders.
  • #675
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:30pm Apr 20, 2011 9:30pm
Quoting FX-Petra
....reposting....just in case some missed it earlier. If you just cannot stand it, and you MUST hit the sell button, do your account a favor and find another pair to short.

regards,
Hi Petra - welcome back!
  • #676
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:31pm Apr 20, 2011 9:31pm
Quoting evelee8
Do pay attention to Kiwi..
This is another potential growth pair which can shoot higher..
if you think the this pair is going to much over-valued under your view.

As mentioned previously - you need to at least do some of your own research, and know the risk involved in forex trading.

Correlation - NZD climb up slowly whenever Aussie shoot up further

Good luck to all traders.
I find overall NZD is more volatile than AUD that it has bigger moves but AUD trends more. So far, they follow each other because the two economies are so similiar
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #677
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:39pm Apr 20, 2011 9:39pm
Forexia, thanks. I just bookmarked the Dukascopy link.

Evelee8, my concern with NZD is liquidity. I've put up the NZDUSD cross to keep an eye on it to see if my fears are founded or not.
  • #678
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:42pm Apr 20, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting FX-Petra
....reposting....just in case some missed it earlier. If you just cannot stand it, and you MUST hit the sell button, do your account a favor and find another pair to short.

regards,
Okay bro,
lets play a little "game" here:
open a demo account, place FOUR (4) shorts on AUDUSD @ the price I mentioned (more accurate would have been 1.0810)
Next place the take profit levels this way:
(1) 1.0781
(2)1.0752
(3)1.0724
(4)1.0695
SL of 60pips would do

At the close of trading today, we would see how I fared.
Do have a great trading day sir!
Meshach
  • #679
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:44pm Apr 20, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Forexia, thanks. I just bookmarked the Dukascopy link.
NP. Hope it helps your trading. I still don't get why there would be so many short interest in a pair that's been trending up so much thou...
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #680
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:49pm Apr 20, 2011 9:49pm
Quoting Forexia
NP. Hope it helps your trading. I still don't get why there would be so many short interest in a pair that's been trending up so much thou...
Retail traders expecting a retrace because 'it can't go any higher without a correction'.
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