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Silent Service Method

  • #12,241
  • Apr 19, 2011 9:25pm Apr 19, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting drebin
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=32152
see the link above. some scary stuff. It might be safe to buy the Aussie...

this country is doomed.
Thanks for posting this -- I had a good laugh! Did you notice the date on that article? Had you purchased the S&P500 (SPY) on that date you'd be up from $94 to $130 or about 34%. If you'd bought small caps (IWM), you'd be up from $52 to $82 or alomst 60%.

This country may be doomed, but that guy better not quit his day job.
  • #12,242
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:32pm Apr 20, 2011 3:32pm
Anyone else for Eur/Usd?

Looks like a good buy
  • #12,243
  • Edited 5:40pm Apr 20, 2011 5:29pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting VitaminBeer
Anyone else for Eur/Usd?

Looks like a good buy
Its up 300 pips this week - Think you might have missed the bottom lol, but it's probably still got some momentum left - timing your entry will be critical IMO.

FWIW my target for this is 1.5/6 - posted a while ago - here..................
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7472
  • #12,244
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:40pm Apr 20, 2011 5:40pm
Stewrigh:

Looks like you'll be right about that swissy trade. 20 pips away from death as I write.
  • #12,245
  • Edited 5:58pm Apr 20, 2011 5:45pm | Edited 5:58pm
Stewrigh:

Looks like you'll be right about that swissy trade. 20 pips away from death as I write. [/quote]



Thanks Low - yeah I love this pair - so much smoother than EU.

You won't believe me but my target on this is 83 with an outside chance of sub 8 by Xmas. That is unless Ben screws me of course.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7472
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  • #12,246
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:06am Apr 21, 2011 1:06am
Don't forget this one.

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  • #12,247
  • Apr 21, 2011 6:24am Apr 21, 2011 6:24am
Quoting stewrigh
Its up 300 pips this week - Think you might have missed the bottom lol, but it's probably still got some momentum left - timing your entry will be critical IMO.

FWIW my target for this is 1.5/6 - posted a while ago - here..................
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7472
I know it is cos I'm on it

Not all that interested in the top and the bottom, just the meat, thanks
  • #12,248
  • Apr 21, 2011 6:46am Apr 21, 2011 6:46am
This is a chart showing the ratio of japanese investor buying to selling in foreign assets. These foreign assets are denominated in USD and therefore will be having a significant negative impact on the USD value across the board as they are all converted back into JPY.

As you can see there has been a material drop in foreign investment in the last few weeks post Tsu's visit.

If this is not proof of repatriation then I am not sure what is and furthermore for all those calling the USD confetti and running to their log cabins with tinned food, ammo and gold you may find that you miss a nice summer.......

USDJPY looks a good buying opportunity in the 80-82 price band in my opinion (which of course is no guarantee). We could see prices down as far as 78 again however with the BOJ and G7 behind anything much lower we could be seeing that bottoming that everyone called too early a few weeks back.

Cheers,

4x.
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  • #12,249
  • Apr 21, 2011 9:02am Apr 21, 2011 9:02am
Quoting 4xAddict
This is a chart showing the ratio of japanese investor buying to selling in foreign assets. These foreign assets are denominated in USD and therefore will be having a significant negative impact on the USD value across the board as they are all converted back into JPY.

As you can see there has been a material drop in foreign investment in the last few weeks post Tsu's visit.

If this is not proof of repatriation then I am not sure what is and furthermore for all those calling the USD confetti and running to their log cabins with tinned food,...

4x

This is too complicated for me I'm afraid - first you say that Japan is repatriating Yen - strong Yen. Then you say this is a good buying opp - strong dollar....

Am I missing something??
  • #12,250
  • Apr 21, 2011 10:17am Apr 21, 2011 10:17am
As much as I'd loveeeeeeeeeeeee to jump on the USD/JPY long I am very ever very very hesitant, I am actually over it to be honest.... it's over rated....

Will it go up??? Maybe...... shit I lost money on it...... but will it still go up??? Probably lol

But will I try again ? Probably not right now.... I will have to wait and see how things go.....

Everything is else is working nicely for the time being, why would I want to spread my risk to the most 'looked' at currency that is not doing what it's supposed to be doing? Funny game huh!
  • #12,251
  • Apr 21, 2011 10:20am Apr 21, 2011 10:20am
I like your header quote.... everything else is unpredictable or should I say un-knowable!
  • #12,252
  • Apr 22, 2011 12:11am Apr 22, 2011 12:11am
Quoting stewrigh
4x

This is too complicated for me I'm afraid - first you say that Japan is repatriating Yen - strong Yen. Then you say this is a good buying opp - strong dollar....

Am I missing something??
This repatriation due to the exogenous events in Japan in the last months has an end date from an insurers perspective. As a result, this anomaly in fund flows should pass its high point in the near term (6 months) - provided no further new catastrophes occur weather or nuke related. While the nuke fallout remains undetermined, insurers cannot blame the widespread destruction on the nuke situation and therefore need to pay out against their property policies. Also, large corporates need cash in the near term to ride out the near term supply chain stoppages limiting their production.

Once this completes, a very large selling force in the USD will be exhausted and this seller shortage will create a surplus of buyers at least ithe near term once repatriation completes leading to a push higher in usdjpy.

I think this creates a good buying point in the usdjpy because this process will evolve slowly but will also slowly gather speed and once this occurs it will become more obvious to the wider markets. This trade may take weeks or some months to materialize but being a longer term trade it's worth considering and plannig for now.
  • #12,253
  • Apr 22, 2011 12:16am Apr 22, 2011 12:16am
Quoting VitaminBeer
As much as I'd loveeeeeeeeeeeee to jump on the USD/JPY long I am very ever very very hesitant, I am actually over it to be honest.... it's over rated....

Will it go up??? Maybe...... shit I lost money on it...... but will it still go up??? Probably lol

But will I try again ? Probably not right now.... I will have to wait and see how things go.....

Everything is else is working nicely for the time being, why would I want to spread my risk to the most 'looked' at currency that is not doing what it's supposed to be doing? Funny game huh!
That's probably exactly why you should mate, everyone feels the same way about it... When retail traders have had it, the large players make their moves.
  • #12,254
  • Apr 22, 2011 3:57am Apr 22, 2011 3:57am
Quoting 4xAddict
This repatriation due to the exogenous events in Japan in the last months has an end date from an insurers perspective. As a result, this anomaly in fund flows should pass its high point in the near term (6 months) - provided no further new catastrophes occur weather or nuke related. While the nuke fallout remains undetermined, insurers cannot blame the widespread destruction on the nuke situation and therefore need to pay out against their property policies. Also, large corporates need cash in the near term to ride out the near term supply chain...
Thanks 4X

Although I like to keep up with the funnymentals - I try not to let them influence my trading too much.

My view on the dollar is that ATM it is fundamentally very weak - so I sell it whenever I see good PA. Until the charts tell me something different I'll keep doing that. Of course when QE2 ends and Ben raises rates(if ever) I might change my bias lol.

Anyway I don't trade DY.
  • #12,255
  • Apr 22, 2011 9:01am Apr 22, 2011 9:01am
Hi everyone, I am back home now.

Yesterday was fun - I drove from Valdosta, GA to Columbus, OH stopping for gas in Corbin, KY. 14 hours is a long way to drive in one shot......

If anyone gets a chance to go to Clearwater Beach, I would suggest it.....as well as St. Augustine. For anyone thinking about Orlando - leave it. Disney was horrible. Hate that place. It's a perfect example of what was once a great and magical thing being ruined for the bottom line. I am all for making a buck, but that place sucked in a big way.

Chris
  • #12,256
  • Apr 22, 2011 2:18pm Apr 22, 2011 2:18pm
I have been trading (paper) the XAG/USD market since about Feb 1st this year, mostly because I couldn't find any obvious entry points in the other FX markets. It finally sank into my thick head that the silver market was strongly trending upward, and although I agree with Chris that owning actual silver is not a play that I wanted to get seriously involved with, trading the XAG/USD from the long side did make sense to me. So, I used a simple system of putting buy orders above the most recent high, and also at the uptrend line drawn between the two most recent lows, I would wait until one or the other got filled which didn't take very long, then take the profit in a day or two, and repeat. My paper account with OandA went from around $96,000 to $216,000 as of today. I used a leverage factor of about 3-1.
All of this put me in mind of a small book I have had for years, "Viewpoints of a Commodity Trader," by Roy Longstreet. In it he had a short chapter called, "The Big One," referring to some of the great bull markets of the past in commodities. The current silver market is a perfect example of this.
If you pull up a weekly or monthly chart of XAG/USD, you can see some of the S/R points that have been discussed here many times. Obvious ones at the $5 marks, $15, $20, $25, etc. Silver is now at its historic highs of $47.60. Where to from here? Who knows!
Anyhow, the questions I have for all of you are, has anyone played this bull market for real, and how did you handle "The Big One?"
  • #12,257
  • Apr 22, 2011 8:56pm Apr 22, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting Bigmouth
I have been trading (paper) the XAG/USD market since about Feb 1st this year, mostly because I couldn't find any obvious entry points in the other FX markets....
Not I......at least not consistently, only from time to time. However, I had to remark on this post as you described perfectly how people can become very wealthy trading. Thanks for chiming in!

Chris
  • #12,258
  • Apr 23, 2011 2:15am Apr 23, 2011 2:15am
Quoting Bigmouth
Anyhow, the questions I have for all of you are, has anyone played this bull market for real, and how did you handle "The Big One?"
No doubt whatsoever, this Silver run is my trade of a lifetime... I'm glad you asked since I'm just busting to tell somebody. You can't just go around talking about winning the lottery on the street.

I opened a $10,000 Oanda acct in Oct, 2008 and I bought 3000 oz. of silver. Right from the start I vowed that this trade would pay for the farm. This has helped me hang on when my wife was urging, sell it already, take the money.

I've been buying, mostly conservatively, all the way up too. 100, 200, lately 500 oz. Mostly price action on the dips, sometimes breakouts. Like Jacko used to say, buy at will. I hope it's not impolite to say how much money you make on a trade here. I've taken home over 100K, my current account value is more than twice that, and every penny it moves is $100+. Apparently in the trading world this is pretty small potatoes. But I have to tell you this is unbelievably exciting for just an average guy like myself.

And I don't think we're half way to the top yet either. I laugh every time one of you guys has tried to pick the top of this rocket or short it because it's gone bubble. I'm still buying. Seriously, read up on the fundamentals. The whole supply and demand thing is overwhelming bullish. Then add the fear factor in today's world... Generational wealth ahead.

Even though I know this was mostly dumb, blind luck for me, I hope it inspires some of you. Buy at will.

Wheels
  • #12,259
  • Apr 23, 2011 6:11am Apr 23, 2011 6:11am
Quoting 4xWheels
No doubt whatsoever, this Silver run is my trade of a lifetime... I'm glad you asked since I'm just busting to tell somebody. You can't just go around talking about winning the lottery on the street.

I opened a $10,000 Oanda acct in Oct, 2008 and I bought 3000 oz. of silver. Right from the start I vowed that this trade would pay for the farm. This has helped me hang on when my wife was urging, sell it already, take the money.

I've been buying, mostly conservatively, all the way up too. 100, 200, lately 500 oz. Mostly price action on the dips,...
Congrats 4X - I got into silver recently too - I'm just pissed I didn't do it sooner.

I also find it funny that most guys/threads on FF try to pick tops/bottoms - just go with the flow - as Dr Joe would say if its going up I buy if its going down I sell.
  • #12,260
  • Apr 23, 2011 9:43am Apr 23, 2011 9:43am
Quoting 4xWheels
No doubt whatsoever, this Silver run is my trade of a lifetime... I'm glad you asked since I'm just busting to tell somebody. You can't just go around talking about winning the lottery on the street.

I opened a $10,000 Oanda acct in Oct, 2008 and I bought 3000 oz. of silver. Right from the start I vowed that this trade would pay for the farm. This has helped me hang on when my wife was urging, sell it already, take the money.

I've been buying, mostly conservatively, all the way up too. 100, 200, lately 500 oz. Mostly price action on the dips,...
Thanks for posting this, and don't feel like you shouldn't talk about it....not at all. This just shows the power of the overall trend.
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