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  • #1,421
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:40am Apr 20, 2011 4:40am
Quoting ttteee
massive orders on the blue zone? what you think?
I'm new at this order flow thing, comments appreciated
I would agree on the lower blue area but i believe sell limit orders from the upper blue area are escaping the market....if they dont want to catch falling knife anyway. On the other hand there must be some thick buy stops above those highs good to liquidate some of those longs.
  • #1,422
  • Edited 6:23am Apr 20, 2011 5:08am | Edited 6:23am
Quoting Greenhaze
I would agree on the lower blue area but i believe sell limit orders from the upper blue area are escaping the market....if they dont want to catch falling knife anyway. On the other hand there must be some thick buy stops above those highs good to liquidate some of those longs.
I am xXTrizzleXx, and I approve this message.

BUT

Looking at the chart alone is not the best way to help detemine this. You have a decreased probability of making correct educated guesses as to which levels will hold and which levels will break by looking at the chart alone (with enough practice actually it can be done, but I digress...) - hence why the thread meandered along a chartless path.
  • #1,423
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:54am Apr 20, 2011 7:54am
yes plus that barrier at 4525/30 has expired last friday I believe (a reason it was so heavily defended?)... that's the problem with using past data on just a chart alone. hence why we trade orderflow... not idontknow....

now we have them at 4550/4600 if they are still in play. looks like they are...
  • #1,424
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:26pm Apr 20, 2011 12:26pm
Hey guys,

@ Monroe (forgive me if this is a stupid question, still learning)

Are you getting those Barrier #'s from MNI? I scour the free MNI, IFR from Oanda, Forex Live and RANsquawk and only after digging for awhile, do I come across those #'s. I don't have a problem diggin' for 'em if that is what it takes....but seems there should be an easier way to find those numbers. Another reason I ask is that I have seen talk on Forex Live about the 4530 options rolling off and the 4550 options coming due this Friday I believe, but had heard nothing of the 4600.

---------------------------------------------------------

BTW: Long time lurker here. I have learned sooo from you all!! Can't thank you enough for all your contributions to this thread. Look forward to DS's book and grkfx's guide!!

Shout out to grkfx on his book suggestion "More Money than God" ....Great read!!! Another book you might be interested is "The Asylum" by Leah McGrath Goodman. About the NYMEX traders who shot world oil prices thru the roof in 2005-08.
  • #1,425
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:38pm Apr 20, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting TravB
Are you getting those Barrier #'s from MNI?
I know this was directed at Monroe, but I think I can answer it for you.

If you're referring to 4550 and 4600, forexlive reported them this morning here: http://www.forexlive.com/182181/all/...s-eur-barriers

I believe they mentioned the same barriers last week. Also, IFR mentioned the 4550 barriers this morning.

And what is MNI?
  • #1,426
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:40pm Apr 20, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting TravB
Hey guys,

@ Monroe (forgive me if this is a stupid question, still learning)

Are you getting those Barrier #'s from MNI?...
Hey TravB, yes I get those numbers from those services... mostly IFR and fxlive... ransquawk I also use for audio news squawks but they are all reporting the rumors going around the markets so they all get the same info and report around the same... ransquawk gets there order/rumor info from IFR mostly I think... I have heard them announce it many times. I also like ransquawk for there ecomomic calander as they have the auctions listed and a more complete list of monetary speakers. I use them more for a news service along with DJ wire.
  • #1,427
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:03pm Apr 20, 2011 1:03pm
Quoting relyt

If you're referring to 4550 and 4600, forexlive reported them this morning here: http://www.forexlive.com/182181/all/...s-eur-barriers

I believe they mentioned the same barriers last week. Also, IFR mentioned the 4550 barriers this morning.
Dohhh! I totally missed that. Thank you for pointing that out. Guess I need to look a little harder...lol.

Quoting relyt
And what is MNI?
Market News International

https://marketnews.deutsche-boerse.com/FXBullets

Thanks Tyler and Monroe

Also, one more question if I may Monroe. Did you sign up for the free trial at MNI? If so, did they ever mention a price for their service?
  • #1,428
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:10pm Apr 20, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting Monroe
yes plus that barrier at 4525/30 has expired last friday I believe (a reason it was so heavily defended?)... that's the problem with using past data on just a chart alone. hence why we trade orderflow... not idontknow....

now we have them at 4550/4600 if they are still in play. looks like they are...
I think 4550 thereabouts might be acting as liquidity sponges. The down move from the prev Friday looked susceptible to me.
  • #1,429
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:28pm Apr 20, 2011 1:28pm
Quoting Monroe
that was the S&P warning downgrading US gov't outlook to negative... so why do you think prices behaved that way? using your micro-structure and orderflow knowledge...
I am not an expert at orderflow or micro structure but let me give it a try. I was reading through an old thread in FF when I hit upon this idea:

The market actually dint really give a damn about the S&P downgrading in a value sense. It takes a series of them to actually align the market.
That being said, with a news pending we have a thin, illiquid market with wide spreads(any one has the data to confirm this?). A huge order hitting/leaving the market could have been good enough to move the market to the lower level. The market went down and down until it found bids good enough to match the sell (in a traditional sense rather than forex broker sense)
Once the event risk was over, people realized well, if USD rating is bad...why move the market lower? oh well, buy low and make some pips which they did.

I might be wrong in saying this - This was a news trading inefficiency.
  • #1,430
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:30pm Apr 20, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting TravB
Dohhh! I totally missed that. Thank you for pointing that out. Guess I need to look a little harder...lol.



Market News International

https://marketnews.deutsche-boerse.com/FXBullets

Thanks Tyler and Monroe

Also, one more question if I may Monroe. Did you sign up for the free trial at MNI? If so, did they ever mention a price for their service?
NP. Yea I signed up... still have it, I like the FX Bullets but I don't think it's worth paying for it as it really doesn't help my trading enough to justify it. (not sure how much it costs).

I stick to the free stuff from oanda and fxlive plus the free ransquawk... (also bloomberg.com and reuters.com) it's more then enough for what I'm doing anyway... the rest is all what we make of it... there's no secret info so it's all how you interpret and use what we have available.
  • #1,431
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:36pm Apr 20, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting TravB
Dohhh! I totally missed that. Thank you for pointing that out. Guess I need to look a little harder...lol.
Hey try Tweetdeck if u have't yet. It throws the info right into your face.lol
.
  • #1,432
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:54pm Apr 20, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting vicky_ag
I am not an expert at orderflow or micro structure but let me give it a try. I was reading through an old thread in FF when I hit upon this idea:

The market actually dint really give a damn about the S&P downgrading in a value sense. It takes a series of them to actually align the market.
That being said, with a news pending we have a thin, illiquid market with wide spreads(any one has the data to confirm this?). A huge order hitting/leaving the market could have been good enough to move the market to the lower level. The market went down and...
yea I think orders where dumped and pulled and it bounced from exactly the points of where the liquidity was.. so it was just a liquidity pocket. also, there was a gap that got closed on the downside.... nice fade opportunity.

on EU I also think this greek restructuring was no surprise, along with the finish political party crap... more like TP's from ACB's and stops on the downside to drive it and with a lot of talk from CB speakers and what not, most funds waiting on the side... risk off in the equity markets... funny where it bounced from... rumored ACB bids around 4150.... and that info was there a week before as I had wrote it down and took that fade with strong support level behind it... and it was balls on...

anyway thats my take... and it could be a complete pile of shit but it made me money.
  • #1,433
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:21pm Apr 20, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting Monroe
yea I think orders where dumped and pulled and it bounced from exactly the points of where the liquidity was.. so it was just a liquidity pocket. also, there was a gap that got closed on the downside.... nice fade opportunity.

on EU I also think this greek restructuring was no surprise, along with the finish political party crap... more like TP's from ACB's and stops on the downside to drive it and with a lot of talk from CB speakers and what not, most funds waiting on the side... risk off in the equity markets... funny where it bounced...rumored ACB bids around 4150 and that info was there a week before as I had wrote it down and took that fade with strong support level behind it... and it was balls on...
I have some questions here: 1. What gaps are we talking about?
2. You stick on to bids/offers from IFR for over a week? Even if thats the case, how do you decide which one is worthwhile? If we were to list out all the IFR bids and offers, I am not sure if it will stack up good. All of them are not really useful.
  • #1,434
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:23pm Apr 20, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting Monroe
yea I think orders where dumped and pulled and it bounced from exactly the points of where the liquidity was.. so it was just a liquidity pocket. also, there was a gap that got closed on the downside.... nice fade opportunity.

on EU I also think this greek restructuring was no surprise, along with the finish political party crap... more like TP's from ACB's and stops on the downside to drive it and with a lot of talk from CB speakers and what not, most funds waiting on the side... risk off in the equity markets... funny where it bounced from......
By fading u meant u went long right? How long did u hold that long trade?
.
  • #1,435
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:24pm Apr 20, 2011 2:24pm
Quoting vicky_ag
I have some questions here: 1. What gaps are we talking about?
2. You stick on to bids/offers from IFR for over a week? Even if thats the case, how do you decide which one is worthwhile? If we were to list out all the IFR bids and offers, I am not sure if it will stack up good. All of them are not really useful.
yes i keep those bids and offers in mind and think about what would make them get pulled or not, are they still there? who they are from, etc. I find it extremely useful, you just have to use your brain.

the gaps I talk about are liquidity gaps. do a search on forex gaps.
  • #1,436
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:30pm Apr 20, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting nasir.khan
By fading u meant u went long right?
.
of course. I didn't take any trades on the way down, i was waiting... and you could have made plenty of trades on the way down, but i was just trying to figure out what was going on, lots of stuff going on that day.

At the end of the day, i was just thinking... come on... EU isn't going down forever, and things didn't change that radically... so I just arbed the bullshit I guess you can say... I had it planned out anyway, though I honestly wasn't sure of the exact point but once it broke past 4280 or so... i had my level waiting. also heard some comments on the greek stuff sounding like it wasn't that bad around that point and that the ECB is still going to hike rates so...

also at that level, if the bids were still there, I knew i'd be in the money quickly.
  • #1,437
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:47pm Apr 20, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting Monroe
yes i keep those bids and offers in mind and think about what would make them get pulled or not, are they still there? who they are from, etc. I find it extremely useful, you just have to use your brain.

the gaps I talk about are liquidity gaps.
The bids and offers still puzzle me. If I were to read IFR bids and offers...say for EU, what should I really looking for. I know in UY the major players are exporters. But what about EU? ACB are major proponents ? I am asking this because I dont use IFR and would really like to understand it.

If we consider another factor - 4150 was supposed-to-be turning point but so was 4380. I had taken a short from 4380 on Monday...closing it at 4230. Today I had taken a long from the same level....closing on 4525. (took a minor loss yesterday trying to short again...the price movement looked very haphazard to me).

Edit: You have mentioned price breaking 4280...anything specific about that price level?
  • #1,438
  • Edited 3:24pm Apr 20, 2011 3:01pm | Edited 3:24pm
Quoting vicky_ag
The bids and offers still puzzle me. If I were to read IFR bids and offers...say for EU, what should I really looking for. I know in UY the major players are exporters. But what about EU? ACB are major proponents ? I am asking this because I dont use IFR and would really like to understand it.

If we consider another factor - 4150 was supposed-to-be turning point but so was 4380. I had taken a short from 4380 on Monday...closing it at 4230. Today I had taken a long from the same level....closing on 4525. (took a minor loss yesterday trying to...
sorry not 4280 but 4288/90 to be exact, that also being a gap close and hourly support and a technical level being pushed around to watch for. It did bounce nicely from around there.

yea i took fades off the 4380 area multiple times last week because I was hearing of ACB's buying there plus we had the barriers up top. Friday that expired. sunday opens, and I didn't hear much about them having to buy dollars in there currencies overnight and it gapped down on the sunday open with no reaction and the negative euro sentiment starting from over the weekend before the open. They have been diversifying into aud and euro.

not only did you have the acb rumored bids, but tech bids also from around that level last week for various tech reasons... plus TP's

also... one other thing i also forgot to mention was there was a lot of net longs reported last friday from IMM COT I think it was up near like 65k if I'm not mistaken... extreme levels, so that also could be part of why it was such a volatile correction?
  • #1,439
  • Apr 20, 2011 6:08pm Apr 20, 2011 6:08pm
Lately there has been too much bullshit in all seriousness, the two threads contains everything there is to know and there is no need to keep on having it bumped all the time with charts and shit when this thread isnt even about stops or whatever.

So you can call it a conspiracy or whatever but I am trying to save what has already been said by locking it.
As said once again, everything is already here.

Take care
  • #1,440
  • Apr 24, 2011 8:19pm Apr 24, 2011 8:19pm
I was thinking about Silver and the $50 level and possible order flow. I listened to Bob Chapman and he made a point that the average investor in the 1980's was 55 years old. So 40 years later these people are probably dead and if they were alive would they really be trying to get out of their silver positions 40 years later?

I guess the point is that there really isn't any meaningful resistance / order flow at the old silver high of $50 from 1980 to stop price. It was mentioned that sure, you'll have profit taking at the psychological level. I guess my question is to the experienced order flow traders. How much can a market correct on just profit taking? 10%? 30%?

If people are going to sell at the level, it seems to me a perfect time for a big player to buy since there will be profit taking and probably new shorts initiated. Squeezing out those shorts would probably be easy to do if the buying was strong enough and propel price even higher.

Thoughts?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
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