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  • #18,921
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:04pm Apr 20, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting taomql4
We could see 1.42's Again ...
Can't see it going that low personally but hey who knows... If it does drop off any 4260 close on that 1hr bar Monday should keep it up. Around 4430 to as low as 4350 (Top of that 1hr UT and Monday VAH) should be the lowest point for the rest of this week.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,922
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:10pm Apr 20, 2011 1:10pm
That would be tomorrow ..i mean that short trade if there is any with TP around 1.4332 (Trigger line from my chart in the last post)....also nice coos that spot is MONTHLY R1 also and ATR daily value would be there also ...

So an short from 1.4472 to 1.4332
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  • #18,923
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:12pm Apr 20, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting sony
Dear Taomql4

I vouche for that also

Would like to see that test of the upper horizontal line form the TOS chart..

Look 4h chart on TG ...weaknees also

Would like to see for tomorrow an no demand or uptrust, buyingclimax into RED HORIZONTAL LINE, TRADEGUIDER CHART but would be more happy with an no demand or uptrust or buying climax into that BLACK HORIZONTAL LINE TRADEGUIDER CHART (30 min)

That means we need an down move and than an up move into that area

But i will free my mind for an idea of contination of up move also if there is...
Personally not seeing any major weakness to take it down that low. On 4hr I see a higher than average ADR today which has held well within the top of it's range... Perhaps a little profit taking and a little of drop off in volume with London going home etc... After that bar Monday which was a major shake out over 2 bars (Monday and Tuesday) and confirmation with today's upbar I still do not see weakness.

Another retrace to reload longs... sure but I don't see 1.42. Based on normal ADR it would take the remaining 2 days to get there this week and after the first 3 days I don't see 2 straight down bars in the cards. A NS tommorow perhaps or a low volume test bar and then back up on Friday.

Just my 2 cents.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,924
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:16pm Apr 20, 2011 1:16pm
Also i will not buy until i see an valid test, selling climax, nosupply bar on 30 min chart or 1h chart in 1.4509 area

That means again we need an up move above that line and than an pullback

If we get same scenario as last ASIA ...i will get in after London open on smaller TFs ..11, 12, min ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,925
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:18pm Apr 20, 2011 1:18pm
[quote=pres78;4559993]Personally not seeing any major weakness to take it down that low. On 4hr I see a higher than average ADR today which has held well within the top of it's range... Perhaps a little profit taking and a

True ..i am open for every scenario also

Thanks

Will see tomorrow
Work smart not hard
  • #18,926
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:38pm Apr 20, 2011 1:38pm
That down bar after buying climax TG marked as an NARROW SPREAD , HIGH VOLUME..wich means strenght ..hm

Will see tomorrow reaction on everything
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  • #18,927
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:52pm Apr 20, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting pres78
Personally not seeing any major weakness to take it down that low. On 4hr I see a higher than average ADR today which has held well within the top of it's range... Perhaps a little profit taking and a little of drop off in volume with London going home etc... After that bar Monday which was a major shake out over 2 bars (Monday and Tuesday) and confirmation with today's upbar I still do not see weakness.

Another retrace to reload longs... sure but I don't see 1.42. Based on normal ADR it would take the remaining 2 days to get there this week and...
pres, on an intraday (5m/15m/etc..) what do you define as a shakeout. A high volume bar making a lower low but closing on the top? Not really seeing a good definition of a shakeout bar in MTM.

Also after a shakeout do you like to see a low vol test of the shakeout? or in some cases is the shakeout itself testing something to the left, and that is good enough?
  • #18,928
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:56pm Apr 20, 2011 1:56pm
Have a look to CHF pairs on 15min timeframe, there is impressive stopping volumes....Good trades.
  • #18,929
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:03pm Apr 20, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting inks2002
pres, on an intraday (5m/15m/etc..) what do you define as a shakeout. A high volume bar making a lower low but closing on the top? Not really seeing a good definition of a shakeout bar in MTM.

Also after a shakeout do you like to see a low vol test of the shakeout? or in some cases is the shakeout itself testing something to the left, and that is good enough?
Yes typically a new low on higher volume than previous few bars closing on it's high. Yes I prefer a move away and then a retrace to re-test this as it will typically be a high volume trigger. One thing that you need with a SO is an upbar within the next 1 or 2 bars to confirm buying... otherwise like an UT it could actually be sellers absorbing demand and the low of the SO taken out... the upbar after the SO is key.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,930
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:11pm Apr 20, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting pres78
Yes typically a new low on higher volume than previous few bars closing on it's high. Yes I prefer a move away and then a retrace to re-test this as it will typically be a high volume trigger. One thing that you need with a SO is an upbar within the next 1 or 2 bars to confirm buying... otherwise like an UT it could actually be sellers absorbing demand and the low of the SO taken out... the upbar after the SO is key.

Thanks for the reply, makes sense.
  • #18,931
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:02pm Apr 20, 2011 8:02pm
nice NS right before launch off, to bad I was eating dinner blah.
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  • #18,932
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:30pm Apr 20, 2011 8:30pm
got a question for you guys, is there ever a time when an upthrust is in the correct place and you won't wait for a ND to confirm? I usually always wait for a ND after an upthrust, but I feel sometimes you could enter on a break of the low of the upthrust...
  • #18,933
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:34pm Apr 20, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting inks2002
got a question for you guys, is there ever a time when an upthrust is in the correct place and you won't wait for a ND to confirm? I usually always wait for a ND after an upthrust, but I feel sometimes you could enter on a break of the low of the upthrust...
High volume UT's are tricky as they can just as easily be absorption and not really selling. Many times I have seen the highs of UT's taken out even after the low is taken out. You want a downbar at least after to confirm selling. UT can be looked at the same as a SO just upside down...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,934
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:55pm Apr 20, 2011 8:55pm
yes many times I have simply taken a trade as it broke the low of the upthrust only to be stopped out. I now wait maybe for a retest of that upthrust in the form of a ND or sometimes what I see work is a another lower volume upthrust into the previous upthrust. This is after the main upthrust is confirmed and price declines from it and comes back up.
  • #18,935
  • Apr 20, 2011 8:57pm Apr 20, 2011 8:57pm
something like this....
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  • #18,936
  • Apr 20, 2011 9:26pm Apr 20, 2011 9:26pm
I think my problem is I still short too early, to me that break of the low vol upthrust (where cursor is) would be a good short signal, when instead it just goes down a little and blasts up more. Need to try and be more patient for more of a defined downtrend...
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  • #18,937
  • Edited 9:58pm Apr 20, 2011 9:31pm | Edited 9:58pm
we might see a turn around/ retracement here, since this is the weekly resistance (high volume/low volume downbar/no supply) before it shot up to 1.47, from background dating to sept 28 2009.

until LO. or it could continue the move up like yesterday.

EDIT:

2010 Yearly high touched.
  • #18,938
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:50am Apr 21, 2011 12:50am
Ok we just broke up as Pres78 mention it as a possibly scenario last night ..continuation

I have switched now to smaller TFs..30 min 11, 12, min and will watch for an entry after London open coos i missed that long 45 min agao..

I do not trade this early just woke up to go to gym and i am back on London open ussualy..But this days we have nice moves
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  • #18,939
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:55am Apr 21, 2011 12:55am
Quoting sony
Ok we just broke up as Pres78 mention it as a possibly scenario last night ..continuation

I have switched now to smaller TFs..30 min 11, 12, min and will watch for an entry after London open coos i missed that long 45 min agao..

I do not trade this early just woke up to go to gym and i am back on London open ussualy..But this days we have nice moves
how do you use multiple TF like that?
although some said there's pro in every TF, isn't that a little off incosistency.. or else?
  • #18,940
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:10am Apr 21, 2011 1:10am
Start from the higher TF and than there is not prob

If you see some weakens on 1h or 30 min ...setup on 3 min have more chnaches to be sucesfull...If you only look 3 min than it might be truble

The charts i sent had 1h conformation also

We had an wide range up bar with a high volume

So something is going on...Tradeing 3 and 5 min need action on 1h or 30 min to be more sucessfull

That is my opinin...

All the best
Work smart not hard
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