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  • #621
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:29pm Apr 20, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting needpips
Im solid till 1.10. I have a plan....been here before,....and will make 6 figures on the drop. I know things can get crazy and even extend well past common sense. The 2008 crash was no fluke and neither will the next leg down on the SPX.


***there is a huge 17 year line in the sand around these levels....I really believe we hit 1.15ish, but a breather here will initiate that run....Im still seeing .98-.95


***You also have to take oil into acct. Do you think it goes above the 2008 high? I dont. I think we see mid 60's first.
I'm going to have to agree with you on both counts....certainly oil. I must also disclose that my long term predictions have been frequently wrong! Had I been right a little more often, my trading (and working) days would be over by now.

Regards,
  • #622
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:32pm Apr 20, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I'm going to have to agree with you on both counts....certainly oil. I must also disclose that my long term predictions have been frequently wrong! Had I been right a little more often, my trading (and working) days would be over by now.

Regards,

I think that was the nicest Ive ever been disagreed with...LOL! GLTU!
  • #623
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:42pm Apr 20, 2011 12:42pm
Long term view


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  • #624
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:20pm Apr 20, 2011 1:20pm
I have been watching this thread for a couple of weeks and was hoping to get some insight in "when will it reverse". There are many opinions and one thing is for sure: Things have changed in the last couple of years and even so we used to see this kind of move going south, an upward move in this magnitude is something unusual... and we are in uncharted waters my friends.

I hold about a million dollars in cash in AUD, 1.5 Mio in CHF and about 500K in other currencies. (All dollars know to man and some pounds...) Having lost about 25K in the AUDUSD pair in the last couple of weeks I have to start to think again: Why am I happy holding AUD? There is a good reason. Great interest rates, a good economy (...and Australia does not only depend on China), lots of growth and yes...GOLD. The same for Switzerland(where I live).

I would advise all traders (including myself) to exit all short positions at a point where there is still some money in our accounts. I will do so at 1.0720.
At that stage I will keep my fingers away from the AUD until the US decides to cleanup some of the mess and China eases up its currency. Then the AUD will go down again but remember: At that point and it could be 1.15 or so.

This is my opinion and I am guessing like most people seem to ..... I wish all of us many prosperous trades and hope that we can go back to some nice technicals at some stage....I for one misjudged the situation completely! Too much guts and not enough brains.

Best regards

Larry
  • #625
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:32pm Apr 20, 2011 1:32pm
for candlestick traders like me aud/usd is discouriging.

We have seen an weekly hanging man pattern, which was good for 1 or 2 days short and a bearish engulfing. But Pattern are gone now.

It looks like, what ever you trade, go long aud/usd

Daily chart shows a bullish break out. Price might retrace, to test broken resistance, but inherint of a breakout is the violance of this breakout. We have seen this at geppy breakout at ~135 till 140 in 3 tradeing days.

Longterm there is a trendline at the weekly around 1.10-1.12 area
(we will know, if we get there).

But 100 fibo-extension level might be a good bubble burst area too, which is ~1.1450.
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  • #626
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:35pm Apr 20, 2011 2:35pm
Hello All,

As some know, I pop in from time to time. I've been heeding the funnies this last week or so, watched Gold finally popping the 1500 mark, and surely, on it's way to what many consider to be true nominal value up in the 2400 mark, and have to say, the 76.4 FE as shown in the chart may be just the beginning of a run this year when one considers the trouble that the Dollar is in and China's displeasure at what seems to be an obvious weak-dollar policy to bring foreign debt payment down.

I'm curious to learn of just what China did this last day or so, and suspect the acceleration in the Euro may have been aided by Chinese machinations.

Anyway, I cannot see any further FE levels on the chart submitted: does anybody have a better projection... erm, I've run out of topside to use.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #627
  • Apr 20, 2011 2:49pm Apr 20, 2011 2:49pm
click with right mouse into the chart, go to "options",
you see something like "scale fixed" or "scale fixed 1:1" (sorry my MT4 is not in english). Play around with these options.

But whatever, you got the FE 100 around 1.145, as shown in my weekly chart above.




Quoting 45Condor
Hello All,

As some know, I pop in from time to time. I've been heeding the funnies this last week or so, watched Gold finally popping the 1500 mark, and surely, on it's way to what many consider to be true nominal value up in the 2400 mark, and have to say, the 76.4 FE as shown in the chart may be just the beginning of a run this year when one considers the trouble that the Dollar is in and China's displeasure at what seems to be an obvious weak-dollar policy to bring foreign debt payment down.

I'm curious to learn of just what China did this...
  • #628
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:09pm Apr 20, 2011 3:09pm
im adding one last short at 1.07....then I will wait till 1.10 if that were to occur
  • #629
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:53pm Apr 20, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting myownenemy
You dont think this is the top?
Picking tops is a fool's game. It can't be done consistently.
And the only person who should be picking bottoms is a proctologist.

But step back and look at this from the bigger picture. What's the catalyst that has occurred to cause the AUDUSD to start falling?
If anything, things have gotten worse this week with S&P putting the US credit rating on a negative outlook. And what did we hear from the politicians in DC about this? Nothing; crickets were chirping louder.
  • #630
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:54pm Apr 20, 2011 3:54pm
1.0710 !!!
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #631
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:00pm Apr 20, 2011 4:00pm
well thats a thousand pip run....will she turn?
  • #632
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:02pm Apr 20, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
1.0710 !!!
most broker have daily close in a few minutes, but oanda has still 7 hours to go for daily close.


Will not be surprised to see 1.09 by thursday close. Itīs a bullish breakout.

But spread jumped up from 20, 25 to 35 at the moment.
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  • #633
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:00pm Apr 20, 2011 5:00pm
Quoting needpips
im adding one last short at 1.07....then I will wait till 1.10 if that were to occur
Inserted Video
  • #634
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:47pm Apr 20, 2011 5:47pm
The week is not over yet but I thought just for the sake its always good to look forwards.

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Is it a top? EUR/USD will show the way, so lets see.
  • #635
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:26pm Apr 20, 2011 7:26pm
i lost 12% in the last two weeks...technical tradining normally works; however, not on this pair!

Quoting tgdrela1
I have been watching this thread for a couple of weeks and was hoping to get some insight in "when will it reverse". There are many opinions and one thing is for sure: Things have changed in the last couple of years and even so we used to see this kind of move going south, an upward move in this magnitude is something unusual... and we are in uncharted waters my friends.

I hold about a million dollars in cash in AUD, 1.5 Mio in CHF and about 500K in other currencies. (All dollars know to man and some pounds...) Having lost about 25K in the...
  • #636
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:37pm Apr 20, 2011 7:37pm
BOOOM! going parabolic now..... what was the ALL TIME high again? someone posted it on here...was it 1.10? whatever it was thats where we are going...so hang on!
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #637
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:40pm Apr 20, 2011 7:40pm
Quoting frothy
BOOOM! going parabolic now..... what was the ALL TIME high again? someone posted it on here...was it 1.10? whatever it was thats where we are going...so hang on!

1.5ish......PPI news in a little less than an hour......this is getting a little silly
  • #638
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:42pm Apr 20, 2011 7:42pm
Its the chinese dude...they are selling there usd holdings...this may crash the dollar..but then again its the dollar...lol
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #639
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:46pm Apr 20, 2011 7:46pm
i had to short again...this is crazy...i have a stop at 55 however, it is 32 now and looks like it is still moving north!

Quoting needpips
1.5ish......PPI news in a little less than an hour......this is getting a little silly
  • #640
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:47pm Apr 20, 2011 7:47pm
if this does come down...look out it will drop 100 pips faster than it when up.

Quoting mpurdy1973
i had to short again...this is crazy...i have a stop at 55 however, it is 32 now and looks like it is still moving north!
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