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  • #581
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:22pm Apr 19, 2011 6:22pm
It's been following EU like a shadow today for all day. And since EU is is directionless today, so is AU.

This market is really pissing me off. I hate being stuck in these sideway markets that don't go anywhere.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #582
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:30pm Apr 19, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting ettrader
I can see where you're coming from but sometimes you have to look at the worst case scenario OK take the low form July 2010 and the high in November 2010. The daily RSI broke the 70 line at price 0.9600 without any fib retrace in fact it kept testing this level for 6 weeks until it peaked around 1.0180 then did a fib retrace. That is 580 pips from the first RSI break. Look at this leg no Fib retrace even though we broke the daily 70 RSI level at 1.0580 this pair is capable of repeating this process can you imagine it being say 580 pips again on...

Well said ettrader.
  • #583
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:31pm Apr 19, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting Forexia
It's been following EU like a shadow today for all day. And since EU is is directionless today, so is AU.

This market is really pissing me off. I hate being stuck in these sideway markets that don't go anywhere.
Sell EUR/AUD and earn the points then ;-)
  • #584
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:42pm Apr 19, 2011 6:42pm
Finally, some actions. God, all those work ALL day and I am just breaking even with a losing trade earlier.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #585
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:42pm Apr 19, 2011 6:42pm
Quoting ettrader
I can see where you're coming from but sometimes you have to look at the worst case scenario OK take the low form July 2010 and the high in November 2010....

Not necessarily. Thats like saying gold is going to go to $3000 an ounce from here. It all has to be put in context. I just dont see AU moving higher than our high without a 30% minimal retrace of this last move from .97
  • #586
  • Apr 19, 2011 7:23pm Apr 19, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting needpips
Not necessarily. Thats like saying gold is going to go to $3000 an ounce from here. It all has to be put in context. I just dont see AU moving higher than our high without a 30% minimal retrace of this last move from .97
Firstly, I'm not saying it will go 580 pips plus from the recent high the point I was making on a purely technical basis it's possible based on a pattern that has actually occurred before.

On a technicals you said it looks bearish, so on a technical basis I said this is the worst case scenario if you're short. The problem with the response to that is that you've given me a fundamental reason why that is not possible. So many times I've seen prices go to ridiculous levels based on nothing except momentum and short interest. I'm not sure if $3000 gold is possible on a technical level though I'd have to check. What I am looking at though is the high volume of short positions on AUDUSD by small investors that is key. When you get such high levels those that are short need to be able to look at the worst case scenario if your setup doesn't play out. however ridiculous it looks. I'm just cautious of positioning short with what I'm seeing.
  • #587
  • Apr 19, 2011 7:42pm Apr 19, 2011 7:42pm
We just tapped the upper 17 year TL again

WEEKLY
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  • #588
  • Apr 19, 2011 7:44pm Apr 19, 2011 7:44pm
H4

third tap coming up?
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  • #589
  • Apr 19, 2011 8:44pm Apr 19, 2011 8:44pm
Aussie recover from yesterday losses due to negative SP rating to US and there will unlikely be more than one rate hike until end 2011 after the RBA minutes took place.

Sorry for the late updates - been busy with some other work..(trading is not my FULL time per se.. =P)

Still Long aussie @ 1.0478 - TP 1.06
Closed - Long aussie 1.0529 - TP 1.0550 (+21 pips) / the interest yesterday was paying well - $5.8 per lot. =D

1-hour trend analysis:
EMA5 EMA10 EMA20 EMA50 SMA100 SMA200
Value 1.0536 1.0526 1.0515 1.0512 1.0518 1.0508
BIAS Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy

Good luck to all traders.
  • #590
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:05pm Apr 19, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting needpips
I would have assumed that AU would have made new highs today along with Gold and Silver....this resistance seems to allude to the obvious 1.025 area, but I am convinced it retraces to .95-.98 before a final push upwards to 1.10+.
I'm a fundamentals trader not a technicals trader. I come here to read the technical analysis of proven technical traders like Magix.
You've now changed from correlating the AUD's movements from the S&P to gold/silver. That's a huge cluelight as to your technical analysis comments. Rather than admit your errors, you have chosen to dig a deeper hole. Good luck with your analysis because it's not based on technicals or fundamentals.
  • #591
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:14pm Apr 19, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
I'm a fundamentals trader not a technicals trader. I come here to read the technical analysis of proven technical traders like Magix.
You've now changed from correlating the AUD's movements from the S&P to gold/silver. That's a huge cluelight as to your technical analysis comments. Rather than admit your errors, you have chosen to dig a deeper hole. Good luck with your analysis because it's not based on technicals or fundamentals.

Its called a multifaceted skill set. Observations in all asset classes. Did u not see my charts.
  • #592
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:47pm Apr 19, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting needpips
Its called a multifaceted skill set. Observations in all asset classes. Did u not see my charts.
I saw your charts. I'm now watching your head get handed to you on a platter.
  • #593
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:52pm Apr 19, 2011 10:52pm
obviously you dont know how to read trend lines.....thanks for being a jerk....Why dont you show mw your charts / analysis....also, who in their right mind would be a buyer at the 17 year top trend line? Yes, it may go higher, but not without a 30% pullback and consolidation. I mean we just skipped 900 pips....Even UJ took a breather after 1000 pips.....
  • #594
  • Apr 19, 2011 11:04pm Apr 19, 2011 11:04pm
Aussie breaking above 1.06.

Closed one of my Long aussie @ 1.0478 - TP 1.06 (+122 pips)
Adjusted another same Long - TP 1.065 (if it break above Bollinger band @ 1.065)

Closed my one Short 1.052 @ SL 1.059 (-70 pips)
Lesson learned: Should close it yesterday during the upward trend and reco very sign shown on Aussie 1-hour trend.

Good luck to all traders.
  • #595
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:16am Apr 20, 2011 3:16am
Quoting arunmatt
Thanks FXTOPEDIA. I had the same figures in mind. I appreciate your response.
You are welcome. If you care for EUDUSD think about this:

eurusd sell-limmit 1.4440 sl 1.4462 tp 1.4280
Date: 20/04/2011
Time: 10 am GMT
  • #596
  • Apr 20, 2011 3:57am Apr 20, 2011 3:57am
Aussie breaking 1.0650 (bollinger band)!
Strong buying demand ahead.
EMA 20 upgrade the buying power @ 1.0553. (+100 pips compared last two days)

Updates: Adjusted my TP to 1.072.
  • #597
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:07am Apr 20, 2011 4:07am
Amazing what moves you get when too many are short, also, the moves are way more than the usual average daily range when you see that you know it's a short squeeze or major news. The upper range on this price action looks 1.0850 to 1.1000 if this continues.
  • #598
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:10am Apr 20, 2011 4:10am
Quoting ettrader
Amazing what moves you get when too many are short, also, the moves are way more than the usual average daily range when you see that you know it's a short squeeze or major news. The upper range on this price action looks 1.0850 to 1.1000 if this continues.
1.1 might be the psychological high.
  • #599
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:29am Apr 20, 2011 4:29am
Quoting ettrader
Amazing what moves you get when too many are short, also, the moves are way more than the usual average daily range when you see that you know it's a short squeeze or major news. The upper range on this price action looks 1.0850 to 1.1000 if this continues.

reasons for 1.1? it has been a clean uptrend more than a month... or perhaps more than months (i mean since .0800...)
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #600
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:34am Apr 20, 2011 4:34am
Quoting needpips
obviously you dont know how to read trend lines.....thanks for being a jerk....Why dont you show mw your charts / analysis....also, who in their right mind would be a buyer at the 17 year top trend line? Yes, it may go higher, but not without a 30% pullback and consolidation. I mean we just skipped 900 pips....Even UJ took a breather after 1000 pips.....
I don't draw charts; my talent is fundamentals not technicals. I come here to read others' technical analysis. Fortunately, I can usually spot the BS artists. And poorly drawn trend lines.
As far as me being a jerk, I would suggest you look in the mirror. You have been extremely arrogant in this thread in spite of being on the wrong side of the trade. I've simply called you out on your BS analysis.
My concern is that some here may have bought into your BS.
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