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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #561
  • Apr 18, 2011 1:07pm Apr 18, 2011 1:07pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Long 2 lots @ 0490. TP1 0540, TP2 0570. SL 0375. Good trades to all...

Regards,
Added one more lot on the dip down @ 0460. Just closed that lot @ 0510, plus one of the 0490 lots also closed @ 0510. Moved my last lot to BE +1. TP still @ 0570 on the last lot. Things seem a bit gittery today, no need to get stressed if you don't have to. Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #562
  • Apr 18, 2011 4:43pm Apr 18, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi, this is a bonus trade, it is NOT mandatory that you take the trade. We've been long earlier. Your nickname looks familiar. Are you Nigerian? Meshach
Good day Nairalander, I did not take the trade but just feel nobody was asking for SL which I felt was dangerous. That was why I asked anyway. My sell limit just trigger at 1.0572 SL1.0602 TP1, 1.0472 TP2, 1.0400. From there, I continue trailing. Yup, I am a Nigerian, my username at NAIRALAND still same as this.
  • #563
  • Apr 19, 2011 2:19am Apr 19, 2011 2:19am
Quoting arunmatt
How was your weekend Meshach? Are we still looking at 1.0670/80 as our TP? I think Aud had some bad financial news this weekend? What do you think?
Going LONG would be better from 1.0390 However, at the moment, I am SHORT with following parameters:
Enrty 1.0572 SL1.0602 TP1, 1.0472 TP2, 1.0400
  • #564
  • Apr 19, 2011 2:29am Apr 19, 2011 2:29am
Going for short both AUS & NZD,We Will See
  • #565
  • Apr 19, 2011 3:27am Apr 19, 2011 3:27am
Thanks FXTOPEDIA. I had the same figures in mind. I appreciate your response.
  • #566
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:17am Apr 19, 2011 4:17am
Quoting Patience
Not Oanda. They make continuous interest payments second by second so if you hold positions over the weekend, you are still accruing interest (rather than having triple interest on a Wednesday). But, as you stated, all other brokers I have traded/trade with pay triple interest on Wednesdays.
Pardon me for beating a dead horse, but I can see from my account that InteractiveBrokers paid me triple interest Monday/Tuesday 12AM EDT.
Based on my calculations, it's in arrears for my open position last Wednesday at 5PM EDT; triple interest Wednesday. Again, it fits with the settlement date going over the weekend.

When I close all of my positions, I will report on when I stop receiving carry trade interest.

The wheels are currently turning in my cranium on strategies to take advantage of triple interest Wednesday. On a broad basis, this will allow me to ramp up a positive carry trade position from Sun PM to Wed 5PM ET, and then reduce my positive carry trade position Wed 5PM ET to Friday PM. So for positive carry, buy dips Sun-Wed and sell rips Wed-Fri. I'll need to contemplate a negative carry trade strategy.
  • #567
  • Apr 19, 2011 7:33am Apr 19, 2011 7:33am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Pardon me for beating a dead horse, but I can see from my account that InteractiveBrokers paid me triple interest Monday/Tuesday 12AM EDT.
Based on my calculations, it's in arrears for my open position last Wednesday at 5PM EDT; triple interest Wednesday. Again, it fits with the settlement date going over the weekend.

When I close all of my positions, I will report on when I stop receiving carry trade interest.

The wheels are currently turning in my cranium on strategies to take advantage of triple interest Wednesday. On a broad basis, this...
I look to aggresively buy dips on Mon.-Wen. There is normally a push north sometime on Wend. (not always) and I look to unload then. It is a simple strategy, but effective. Just have to avoid those double cross Wend. when we move down hard.



Regards
  • #568
  • Apr 19, 2011 8:57am Apr 19, 2011 8:57am
Quoting FX-Petra
I look to aggresively buy dips on Mon.-Wen. There is normally a push north sometime on Wend. (not always) and I look to unload then. It is a simple strategy, but effective. Just have to avoid those double cross Wend. when we move down hard.

Regards
Thank you very much for sharing. I haven't traded nor have I followed this cross until now. I'm sure that there are many little vagaries that I will learn shortly.
  • #569
  • Apr 19, 2011 9:26am Apr 19, 2011 9:26am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Thank you very much for sharing. I haven't traded nor have I followed this cross until now. I'm sure that there are many little vagaries that I will learn shortly.
Example:

I had 2 lots trigger @ 0460 on the dip overnight. I just closed one @ 1.0510 (rip up), holding the other for 1.0560 if we reach there before Wend. afternoon. When Wend afternoon comes, I'll close on any rip, regardless of price.

Regards,
  • #570
  • Apr 19, 2011 10:06am Apr 19, 2011 10:06am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Pardon me for beating a dead horse, but I can see from my account that InteractiveBrokers paid me triple interest Monday/Tuesday 12AM EDT.
Based on my calculations, it's in arrears for my open position last Wednesday at 5PM EDT; triple interest Wednesday. Again, it fits with the settlement date going over the weekend.

When I close all of my positions, I will report on when I stop receiving carry trade interest.

The wheels are currently turning in my cranium on strategies to take advantage of triple interest Wednesday. On a broad basis, this...
How do you get Interactive Brokers to pay you interest? Whenever I carry trades across multiple days, I always end up paying interest to IB, never the other way around. And their spread between paying and collecting interest on all currency pairs is huge.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #571
  • Apr 19, 2011 11:21am Apr 19, 2011 11:21am
Quoting Forexia
How do you get Interactive Brokers to pay you interest? Whenever I carry trades across multiple days, I always end up paying interest to IB, never the other way around. And their spread between paying and collecting interest on all currency pairs is huge.
It depends on which currency pair and if you are short or long.

Some currencies pay negative interest both directions, some pay positive going just one way. Aussie long, for example.
  • #572
  • Apr 19, 2011 1:17pm Apr 19, 2011 1:17pm
Maybe a good time to buy on dips??? If we see a clear break higher? Maybe as soon as we get a good understanding of the direction? What is everyone thinking?
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #573
  • Apr 19, 2011 3:08pm Apr 19, 2011 3:08pm
Quoting Forexia
How do you get Interactive Brokers to pay you interest? Whenever I carry trades across multiple days, I always end up paying interest to IB, never the other way around. And their spread between paying and collecting interest on all currency pairs is huge.
IB's 'interest paid to you' page shows various levels of interest paid, depending on your position size: http://interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=interest
AUD is best with 4.508% for everything above 120,000 AUD.
Subtract interest charges of .62% on USD above 1,000,000 (.5% >3,000,000) and AUD offers a positive carry at IB.

Other currencies that offer positive carry against the USD (cheapest currency to short): KRW, MXN, SEK, and (barely) CAD.

I looked at Dukascopy's interest paid and they pay a little bit more daily than IB but not a huge amount. I've found IB to be competitive in the past so I doubt that other companies pay much more than IB. It helps explain why the carry trade is mostly dead.
  • #574
  • Apr 19, 2011 3:26pm Apr 19, 2011 3:26pm
Quoting frothy
Maybe a good time to buy on dips??? If we see a clear break higher? Maybe as soon as we get a good understanding of the direction? What is everyone thinking?
I am Long ATM. Looks like it's following EU today. It's currently waiting for EU to break 4342. Once it breaks through 4342, This pair will go higher. Next level is 1.0543.

It's been directionless all day today though. Pissing me off.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #575
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:44pm Apr 19, 2011 4:44pm
Quoting Forexia
I am Long ATM. Looks like it's following EU today. It's currently waiting for EU to break 4342. Once it breaks through 4342, This pair will go higher. Next level is 1.0543.

It's been directionless all day today though. Pissing me off.
I'm trading this a bit differently than you; the range is fine with me.

I bought small lots at multiple prices last night on the dip to 1.45x and sold them in small lots in the rip at 1.0514 and above.
I just put in a bunch of small lot orders to buy down to 1.0461.
... I use 1.5 lots/order. Why? IB's minimum commission is $2.50; 1.5 lots is ~$3.15ish/side; $6.30/round trip.

I continue to trade around a core position, using my buys to lower my average basis and selling all lots above my average basis.

This works for me but everyone has a different trading style. Heck, I could trade this successfully on the short side using this strategy in reverse but I wouldn't be happy with the negative carry.
I have dry powder in reserve in case the AUD tanks. I would use that as an AUD buying opportunity.

Green pips to you.
  • #576
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:52pm Apr 19, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting Venice
It depends on which currency pair and if you are short or long.

Some currencies pay negative interest both directions, some pay positive going just one way. Aussie long, for example.
Yep.
Going off of benchmark rates, IB charges .5 to 2.0% above benchmark. IB pays .25 to 4.0% below benchmark. Above/below rates depend on position size and currency.
For instance, the deviation from benchmark for USD is much less than for MXN, Mexican Peso.

I use IB for my stock and futures trades along with FOREX but am contemplating opening a FOREX account with Dukascopy.
  • #577
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:53pm Apr 19, 2011 4:53pm
Retail short interest is too high on this pair now for a lrge drop, US$ is still very weak, and we've bounced on a key MA on yesterdays and todays low. I'm still seeing buy the dips on this pair up to 1.0580 again.
  • #578
  • Apr 19, 2011 4:54pm Apr 19, 2011 4:54pm
I would have assumed that AU would have made new highs today along with Gold and Silver....this resistance seems to allude to the obvious 1.025 area, but I am convinced it retraces to .95-.98 before a final push upwards to 1.10+.
  • #579
  • Apr 19, 2011 5:57pm Apr 19, 2011 5:57pm
It seems we are repeating these 9 wave patterns that point up....this seems awfully bearish overall IMHO
  • #580
  • Apr 19, 2011 6:17pm Apr 19, 2011 6:17pm
Quoting needpips
It seems we are repeating these 9 wave patterns that point up....this seems awfully bearish overall IMHO
I can see where you're coming from but sometimes you have to look at the worst case scenario OK take the low form July 2010 and the high in November 2010. The daily RSI broke the 70 line at price 0.9600 without any fib retrace in fact it kept testing this level for 6 weeks until it peaked around 1.0180 then did a fib retrace. That is 580 pips from the first RSI break. Look at this leg no Fib retrace even though we broke the daily 70 RSI level at 1.0580 this pair is capable of repeating this process can you imagine it being say 580 pips again on top of 1.0580? We get 1.1160. Just something that is perfectly possible based on previous action with this pair.

The big problem with the bearish scenario is we need some mechanism whereby a rush to safety is triggered that is to the US$. I can't see one, the Fed are so blatant in their position on playing down the US$. You'd need a Fed that wants to support the US$, you'd need a US government concerned about the decline of the US$ or you'd need a global financial crisis. They don't even care about their budget so why would anybody say the AU looks overbought now lets switch back into US$, there's no need to they're earning good interest on a major pair. In fact the Australian central bank are encouraging the carry trade to continue.
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