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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,781
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:20am Apr 18, 2011 9:20am
Quoting Beljevina
While we're mostly VSA traders, news can of course sway things and cause surprises, so being aware of it is important.

One way that I do that is to access the right twitter channels, and then receive instantaneous updates on what's happened. All of that is free, and it's usually instantaneous.

Once you've set up a twitter account, you can subscribe to the right providers, and then, with a good pop-up client (I use Spaz), you'll get an unobtrusive lower-right screenpop with the update (or, use the mobile client)....
may I know what app is that..

sonic
  • #18,782
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:28am Apr 18, 2011 9:28am
Quoting PipPipPip
Not a big timer here, but my 2 cent.
That seems to be normal out of range spike during us open with no major news. price has resumed on the longer time frames, and above 1.4300. imo, pa and big bulls entered at 1.4275; which on the daily, 1.4280 was nov 4 2010's high, and between last couple weeks/days resistance/support.

the weekly still shows strength in background, while this down move shows some volume for the bears- looks short term for the bears; bulls building steam for the coming week and next. b/c (weekly still hasn't finished its run....

But how can we explain what happened using VSA. There was something wrong when for EURUSD it broke below the low at 1.4348 on the 15M chart. First the volume was lower than the volume of the previous bar.
And the next bar was a bit strange with a very high volume, making a new low, but closing at the high.

How can we explain the breakout? Selling from the herd? Why? And then SM was buying, but then they let the price fall.

I don't understand.
  • #18,783
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:30am Apr 18, 2011 9:30am
Quoting sonicdeejay
may I know what app is that..

sonic
It's called Spaz - see the link in my post. It will prompt you to install Adobe AIR.
Quoting dvarrin
The calendar from Forexfactory is not good? For sure not for today as there was no big news planned for today except something about CAD when the big move happened.
Completely different things - the calendar has scheduled news. Black swan events aren't scheduled, so when we're all left scratching our heads saying 'what happened', make sure you have news getting pushed to you.
  • #18,784
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:31am Apr 18, 2011 9:31am
Quoting dvarrin
Why often after the price has broken out of a trading range, it will usually reverse before going further in the breakout direction? I don't understand how to explain that with VSA.

For example if we consider a breakout upwards. If it is a valid one, then it would be originated by the Smart Money. The traders who are wrong, if they reverse or simply close their trade, will make this move even bigger.

So what has happened if after the breakout upwards price is going back in the trading range on high volume? Is it the Smart Money who wants to...
Many times after price breaks and moves up say above a high volume area it will quite often return to re-test this area of high volume before continuing upward... same for down moves.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,785
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:34am Apr 18, 2011 9:34am
Quoting dvarrin
The calendar from Forexfactory is not good? For sure not for today as there was no big news planned for today except something about CAD when the big move happened.
Not all news is posted or planned.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,786
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:37am Apr 18, 2011 9:37am
Quoting dvarrin
But how can we explain what happened using VSA. There was something wrong when for EURUSD it broke below the low at 1.4348 on the 15M chart. First the volume was lower than the volume of the previous bar.
And the next bar was a bit strange with a very high volume, making a new low, but closing at the high.

How can we explain the breakout? Selling from the herd? Why? And then SM was buying, but then they let the price fall.

I don't understand.
SM was in no way buying in that 15min upbar. It was a non posted news related price manipulation... retailers were buying and SM was selling. Look at PA after that 15min high volume wide spread up bar... down, down, down... had SM been buying price would have kept going up.

Remember weakness appears in upbars and strength in downbars.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,787
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:37am Apr 18, 2011 9:37am
Quoting Les_Paul
Hi ivonivon,

could you pls tell me what broker you use? In my chart this bar is not a ND, which is a shame...

Thanks

Les_Paul
Hi Paul, i use FXCM.
  • #18,788
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:39am Apr 18, 2011 9:39am
Quoting pres78
Many times after price breaks and moves up say above a high volume area it will quite often return to re-test this area of high volume before continuing upward... same for down moves.
But what happens exactly? Is it the SM buying/selling or the herd buying/selling?
  • #18,789
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:43am Apr 18, 2011 9:43am
right.. you got that tradeguider indi up and running.
but it's a pity you won't get confirmation analysis, trend diamond, and indicator help without subscribing.
nevertheless, if you've grasp the vsa concept, you won't necessarily need those anyway

Quoting BeLikeWater
Do you mean we should get only seo,mthing like this:

http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/3369/thisisitk.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #18,790
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:47am Apr 18, 2011 9:47am
http://www.gravatar.com/avatar/481cb...%3Fs%3D50&r=PG
S&P says affirmed US rating but outlook revised to negative for US

1 and 3 likelihood that S&P could lower US rating in 2 year. Reflects increased risk on fiscal issues. The dollar has moved lower on the news. Stocks lower.


By gmichalowski || April 18, 2011 at 13:02 GMT
Category: All || Tags: || 20 comments || Add comment
Share and Enjoy:



Forexlive is good for news see link above....check out your 1 min chart and you can see how quick they were....I posted the headlines earlier, but after I'd finished trading the move up to the 4350 area...........trade the spike first, find out the reason for it later.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,791
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:50am Apr 18, 2011 9:50am
Quoting dvarrin
But what happens exactly? Is it the SM buying/selling or the herd buying/selling?
If price is going up it is SM moving it there not the herd. If SM busts through an area on high volume on a move up then we are either seeing selling or absorption. Now if SM wants to go up they will many times go up a bit but then return to "test" for supply at the previous high volume area. If none is found (i.e. low volume basic test) then they will continue up. If we are above the point of highest volume then I would be looking for a long... if below a short. High volume trigger level work somewhat like daily POC's when it comes to controlling price and reaction in these areas. Really high volume and or spread is a sign that something has happened... it is waiting for VSA signals in these levels of action that I trade using triggers. These are typically very low risk trades that one can take with confidence.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,792
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:51am Apr 18, 2011 9:51am
Quoting pres78
SM was in no way buying in that 15min upbar. It was a non posted news related price manipulation... retailers were buying and SM was selling. Look at PA after that 15min high volume wide spread up bar... down, down, down... had SM been buying price would have kept going up.

Remember weakness appears in upbars and strength in downbars.

Thank you for your answer pres78. If I had remembered that weakness appears in upbars and strength in downbars I would have simply ignored those two bars ;-)

But in the middle of the action, my mind was confused. I'm always looking a breaout below a trading range as the reverse signal of an effort to rise, a bit like an effort to fall an then, because of the upbar I was thinking it failed to go down and I was expecting higher prices.
I think it was simply a failed test and I had to look for no demand. I keep on doing that mistake again and again :-(
  • #18,793
  • Apr 18, 2011 9:55am Apr 18, 2011 9:55am
Quoting dvarrin
Thank you for your answer pres78. If I had remembered that weakness appears in upbars and strength in downbars I would have simply ignored those two bars ;-)

But in the middle of the action, my mind was confused. I'm always looking a breaout below a trading range as the reverse signal of an effort to rise, a bit like an effort to fall an then, because of the upbar I was thinking it failed to go down and I was expecting higher prices.
I think it was simply a failed test and I had to look for no demand. I keep on doing that mistake again and again...
Just remember not all upbars contain weakness... identify the ones that stand out because of spread or volume... same with downbars. Then watch for VSA basic set-ups, ND, NS, tests into these bars H/L or close levels for safe, low risk trades.

That high volume upbar was just a post news SO in reverse. If you see something odd... don't jump in with the rest of the herd... wait for the right set-ups in the odd bars zone... this may keep you out of some trades that work out but it will also keep you out of bad trades by getting sucked in by SM price manipulation.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,794
  • Apr 18, 2011 10:04am Apr 18, 2011 10:04am
Quoting pres78
If price is going up it is SM moving it there not the herd. If SM busts through an area on high volume on a move up then we are either seeing selling or absorption. Now if SM wants to go up they will many times go up a bit but then return to "test" for supply at the previous high volume area. If none is found (i.e. low volume basic test) then they will continue up. If we are above the point of highest volume then I would be looking for a long... if below a short. High volume trigger level work somewhat like daily POC's when it comes to controlling...
In the Master the Market book from Tom Williams a breakout upward is called an "Effort to Rise" and it is written that if the next bar is down on high volume, then the effort failed and we should look for a short.

Is there a better way to analyse what happens after an effort to rise? It's not clear what to do. Sometime they say that if the next bar close is at the same level as the effort bar close then the effort was successful. Or they also say that if the next bar makes a higher high it is also a confirmation, even if it closes below the close of the effort bar.

This is my worst problem with VSA. I see an effort to rise out of a trading range and then I have no idea on how to interprete the following bars.
  • #18,795
  • Apr 18, 2011 10:09am Apr 18, 2011 10:09am
Quoting pres78
Just remember not all upbars contain weakness... identify the ones that stand out because of spread or volume... same with downbars. Then watch for VSA basic set-ups, ND, NS, tests into these bars H/L or close levels for safe, low risk trades.

That high volume upbar was just a post news SO in reverse. If you see something odd... don't jump in with the rest of the herd... wait for the right set-ups in the odd bars zone... this may keep you out of some trades that work out but it will also keep you out of bad trades by getting sucked in by SM price...
Thank you pres78! I really appreciate your advices and I hope I'll soon become better when applying VSA analysis. As you see I still have a lot to improve ;-)
  • #18,796
  • Apr 18, 2011 10:25am Apr 18, 2011 10:25am
Quoting pres78
If price is going up it is SM moving it there not the herd. If SM busts through an area on high volume on a move up then we are either seeing selling or absorption. Now if SM wants to go up they will many times go up a bit but then return to "test" for supply at the previous high volume area. If none is found (i.e. low volume basic test) then they will continue up. If we are above the point of highest volume then I would be looking for a long... if below a short. High volume trigger level work somewhat like daily POC's when it comes to controlling...
Pres,
You have a excellent understanding of Market action
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #18,797
  • Apr 18, 2011 12:49pm Apr 18, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting PipPipPip
imo, pa and big bulls entered at 1.4275; which on the daily, 1.4280 was nov 4 2010's high, and between last couple weeks/days resistance/support.

the weekly still shows strength in background, while this down move shows some volume for the bears- looks short term for the bears; bulls building steam for the coming week and next. b/c (weekly still hasn't finished its run. it closed half way of the trigger on sep 7 2009, 1.4485 with no test of the resistance at 1.4575)
Definitely beautiful move on monday.

entered long at 1.4275
Good move into us open,

Just got back onto my computer after a muddy day. I got stopped out on EU on my entry. Not nice. But hey - can't win them all. So moving on.

Stop triggered @ 1.4175
Buy triggered @ 1.4155

My day was sort of saved by the trade entered in on thursday, and the other entry at 1.4155.

so the day ended flattish where i started again on EU this morning.

Still bullish for the long term.

So we learn...
  • #18,798
  • Apr 18, 2011 1:17pm Apr 18, 2011 1:17pm
For tomorrow i am more bullish bias

I think that we saw some serous buying today

This is how i marked my charts for tomorrow London pre London and after Lond. sesson

Will trade of those lines

I again took 4h chart 6e EUR futures and marked that huge volume wide spread bar

It gave me those 2 points

Than i marked those also on my MT4 chart so for me to be able easer to see what is going on tomorrow

As i am bullsh bias i will watch for a small position entry around 1.4222 if there is any reason and for one more secure and bigger position around 1.4333

Also those are good spots for more shorts if there is any but as i stated after this today i am more for bulls

I also attached that daily and weekly chart and on daily we can see that this was an buying in a uptrend

After i spot trade from the4h and 30 min (lets be back on the topic above)..I switch to 3 min chart where i have all the "lines" ..i mean pivots and MM lines and Fibos and i watch for a good spot to place my Stop

I attached also that chart ..3 min

So that is how i do that ...Today was profitable but i need to work on my exits

All the best
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h chart.jpg Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 30 min.jpg Size: 131 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily and weekly.png Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3 min chart.jpg Size: 151 KB
Work smart not hard
  • #18,799
  • Apr 18, 2011 1:28pm Apr 18, 2011 1:28pm
This is something additional but i found out that entry on 11 min and or 12 min also works nice in conjection with 4h Trigger No. , 30min confromation...by me

So it could be used for entry and SL(stop loose) coos 3 min might be realy hardcore

Bye
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11 12.jpg Size: 158 KB
Work smart not hard
  • #18,800
  • Apr 18, 2011 3:04pm Apr 18, 2011 3:04pm
Where do we put the trigger line(s) when there is a very high volume down bar closing near the low and followed by an other downbar with a bit lower volume. On the close of the first bar or the close of the second one?
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