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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,041
  • Apr 13, 2011 8:52am Apr 13, 2011 8:52am
Vantage, Hope all goes smoothly. Best wishes.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,042
  • Apr 13, 2011 1:10pm Apr 13, 2011 1:10pm
Thanks guys for those kind wishes and also to those that sent pm's.

Op went fine she'll be in high care for a few days. Brain tumour removed 14 months ago at 83 and now this op at 84.
  • #4,043
  • Apr 14, 2011 6:10am Apr 14, 2011 6:10am
I was visiting at hospital and Mrs V wasn't in front of computer to take advantage of this one.

Lots of upper wicks on 1hr last one a doji. Shooting star on 15 min, nice lh 5 min shooting star little/no lower wick.

Seems like a straightforward sell.
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  • #4,044
  • Apr 14, 2011 6:55am Apr 14, 2011 6:55am
Quoting Vantage
I was visiting at hospital and Mrs V wasn't in front of computer to take advantage of this one.

Lots of upper wicks on 1hr last one a doji. Shooting star on 15 min, nice lh 5 min shooting star little/no lower wick.

Seems like a straightforward sell.
I missed that as well as I was on my way back from the dentist.

It'll be interesting to see which way we go from here. Can we go higher to test Fri/Mon highs and maybe even push on through to 6450. Or is this a weaker bounce from 6250 which will now fail?


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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,045
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:58am Apr 14, 2011 10:58am
Quoting Ian
I missed that as well as I was on my way back from the dentist.

It'll be interesting to see which way we go from here. Can we go higher to test Fri/Mon highs and maybe even push on through to 6450. Or is this a weaker bounce from 6250 which will now fail?


Attachment
Sorry my online time is few and far between at the mo. I generally don't try and predict levels like you mention but look to trade reaction to them. What is interesting is yet again the reaction to pivot/POC combo's. The big upper wick on 1hr, 15 min shooting stars set up another nice 5 min lh.

Check out the psych levels pivots and trendlines thread also, Islander is active again there and his stuff is pretty much a must read and pgd has also been posting some very nice set ups of late.
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  • #4,046
  • Edited 3:35pm Apr 14, 2011 2:49pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting Vantage
Sorry my online time is few and far between at the mo.
Completely understand.

Quoting Vantage
I generally don't try and predict levels like you mention but look to trade reaction to them. What is interesting is yet again the reaction to pivot/POC combo's. The big upper wick on 1hr, 15 min shooting stars set up another nice 5 min lh.
Yes, sorry, my questions were, of course, rhetorical. Price action at the various levels is paramount. I wasn't at the screen for the trade you mention sadly. Would you still have been interested in a short if that 1 hr candle had closed above MR3/Frankies hour high?

Also, I was wondering how you would have read the 1300 GMT bar (marked with arrow). A negative close and so looking for a short or, a hammer off MR2/POC 6th April combo looking for a long?

It was also an inside bar so either way possibly. It did produce a nice long trade which I missed as unsure about which direction to look for. 15 min hammer, 5 min hl which could have been entered after failure of subsequent 15 min ss for a nice ride up to R3/75/double POC combo.

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Quoting Vantage
Check out the psych levels pivots and trendlines thread also, Islander is active again there and his stuff is pretty much a must read and pgd has also been posting some very nice set ups of late.
Thanks, I do follow that and have read very many of Islander's post's. In fact I found you via the Medici/Islander thread in the first place. That is a steep learning curve and there are some superb trades posted there but I couldn't always see where I could have found an entry. Spending time here has sorted that out.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,047
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:09am Apr 15, 2011 1:09am
Quoting Ian
Would you still have been interested in a short if that 1 hr candle had closed above MR3/Frankies hour high?
You never know. Raises an interesting question as to when you go against the 1hr. A decent double top or lower high would help. Some 15 min candles that show exhaustion and being in and around Lon close would help.

A friend of mine referred me to a very successful reversal trade which is copyright so I can't repeat it.
  • #4,048
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:28am Apr 15, 2011 1:28am
Quoting Vantage
You never know. Raises an interesting question as to when you go against the 1hr. A decent double top or lower high would help. Some 15 min candles that show exhaustion and being in and around Lon close would help.
The up arrow is against a 1hr solid neg close. Its right on a POC line and W pivot, if you are going to go against a 1hr candle these 3 x 15 min doji's at that important area would be a good time to do it. All the 1hr neg candles down move was in the first 15 mins and thereafter 3 x 15 mins couldn't follow through lower.

There are many examples. Its that kind of pa that could make me go against the 1hr.
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  • #4,049
  • Apr 16, 2011 9:01am Apr 16, 2011 9:01am
hi vantage,

i found your thread today and i'm really excited! thank you for your postings! the system is clear for me. but i have troubles with my own discipline. i had a lot of winners last week but a lot of stupid trades without any sense and without any system killed my profits. i have to develop my subconscious behaviour! also i had a lot of trades which were +20 and came back to be where i exited with +1 or sometimes with +0. i find it pretty difficult to find a perfect exit.

i'm definitely subscribed! keep up your great work :-)
  • #4,050
  • Apr 17, 2011 7:18am Apr 17, 2011 7:18am
Quoting fandarana
hi vantage,

i found your thread today and i'm really excited! thank you for your postings! the system is clear for me. but i have troubles with my own discipline. i had a lot of winners last week but a lot of stupid trades without any sense and without any system killed my profits. i have to develop my subconscious behaviour! also i had a lot of trades which were +20 and came back to be where i exited with +1 or sometimes with +0. i find it pretty difficult to find a perfect exit.

i'm definitely subscribed! keep up your great work :-)
Welcome.

Mentioned here and there but always worth repeating:

London open can turn on a dime so we look for reversals at extremes (of session, Frankies hour trade) with a good 15 min candle. Pre US open price can be a lot stickier taking an hour (or more) to either reverse or continue London trend. So pre US session we would not take a trade from 1 x 15 min reversal candle. London close 4.30 gmt also provides good reversal opportunities.

On exits well I also could do with some help there, early exits have been a problem for ages. Mrs V favours banking at key levels (00, 25, 50,75) as price often bounces there, I'd agree with that if you are trading before LO. Once LO head fake has shown itself then you can perhaps let that go a little. An option would be to exit say 60% at +20 ish at a key level and let balance run as a free trade (after LO head fake). No-one went broke banking profits if (a) your win rate is above 50% and (b) average win bigger than average loss. Using small stops that are tightened quickly will favour banking quicker, especially in kind of small ATR days like this week on gu.

On discipline to take the right trades well thats the $64 million question that'll have to be answered quickly. Making the same mistakes will give the same results and it ain't pretty. Get a couple of set ups that you like and have researched and stick with those.
  • #4,051
  • Apr 17, 2011 8:36am Apr 17, 2011 8:36am
hi vantage,

thank you for your answer!

Quoting Vantage
London open can turn on a dime so we look for reversals at extremes (of session, Frankies hour trade) with a good 15 min candle. Pre US open price can be a lot stickier taking an hour (or more) to either reverse or continue London trend. So pre US session we would not take a trade from 1 x 15 min reversal candle. London close 4.30 gmt also provides good reversal opportunities.
Thank you for this observation! Do you know why reversals at London open are faster than pre US open reversals? Is it perhaps the lack of liquidity before London session which makes it easier to change the price?

Quoting Vantage
On exits well I also could do with some help there, early exits have been a problem for ages. Mrs V favours banking at key levels (00, 25, 50,75) as price often bounces there, I'd agree with that if you are trading before LO. Once LO head fake has shown itself then you can perhaps let that go a little. An option would be to exit say 60% at +20 ish at a key level and let balance run as a free trade (after LO head fake). No-one went broke banking profits if (a) your win rate is above 50% and (b) average win bigger than average loss. Using small stops...
Thanks again! I often thought about taking partial profits but I was not sure if this system works especially with your number (b). I always had a good trade which was +20 pips and I had no idea where and when to exit. There where a lot of S/R-areas on the way but I always was afraid to exit the trade too fast. What I need is a system for exits which gives me confidence in trading. With system I mean exactly what you described: exit 60% at +20 and move sl to be and let the rest run. Something which is a bit more rule based to avoid greed and fear and build confidence. But I will follow your trades next week and try to get an idea ;-)

You also mentioned gu. Do you see any advantage in trading gu with that kind of "system"? I'm trading eu mainly and try to focus on one pair. But if the extremes are easier to spot at gu it maybe worth a look. But up to now I was unable to find people with experiences or any statistical reasons to trade gu instead of eu. Perhaps you could share your experiences and bring a little bit light into my dark ;-)


Quoting Vantage
On discipline to take the right trades well thats the $64 million question that'll have to be answered quickly. Making the same mistakes will give the same results and it ain't pretty. Get a couple of set ups that you like and have researched and stick with those.
I think I have a lot of screen time and also a good understanding of the markets and the market structure and PA. So I'm prepared and excited and i'm looking forward to the next week ;-)

Also a big thank you to jag1966! You guys do a great job to help us!

Enjoy the weekend!!
  • #4,052
  • Apr 17, 2011 9:17am Apr 17, 2011 9:17am
Quoting fandarana
Thank you for this observation! Do you know why reversals at London open are faster than pre US open reversals? Is it perhaps the lack of liquidity before London session which makes it easier to change the price?
I'm not Vantage, but I've saved and bookmarked a lot of posts around FF. Medici and Vantage have talked quite a bit about the European open. Here's the answer to your question, you will find it under 'how the market works'. You will also find some useful information from the first post on this thread.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #4,053
  • Apr 18, 2011 2:57am Apr 18, 2011 2:57am
Quoting fandarana

You also mentioned gu. Do you see any advantage in trading gu with that kind of "system"? I'm trading eu mainly and try to focus on one pair. But if the extremes are easier to spot at gu it maybe worth a look. But up to now I was unable to find people with experiences or any statistical reasons to trade gu instead of eu. Perhaps you could share your experiences and bring a little bit light into my dark ;-)
I talk of gu simply because thats the currency I have my research on, its my first choice trade.

If you watch eur thats fine all you do is lots of chart time for the sessions you trade note times of move average pips and places they turn. Then you'll know what on average you can expect and when to exit. Then you'll be happy with what you are banking and grateful for those pips.
  • #4,054
  • Apr 18, 2011 3:04am Apr 18, 2011 3:04am
My mum passed away yesterday and I'm off to make arrangements, no idea when I'll be back trading.

Her op went well but she wasn't strong enough to recover. She made an unbelievable recovery from her op 14 months ago and had a year with us when she was as well as could be expected. I prayed she wouldn't suffer and she didn't, that was a good thing.
  • #4,055
  • Apr 18, 2011 3:09am Apr 18, 2011 3:09am
Quoting Vantage
My mum passed away yesterday and I'm off to make arrangements, no idea when I'll be back trading.

Her op went well but she wasn't strong enough to recover. She made an unbelievable recovery from her op 14 months ago and had a year with us when she was as well as could be expected. I prayed she wouldn't suffer and she didn't, that was a good thing.

Hi V - so sorry to hear your news - my thoughts are with you at this time.....
Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,056
  • Apr 18, 2011 3:46am Apr 18, 2011 3:46am
My condolences to yourself and Mrs V. All our thoughts and prayers are with you in this tough time.
  • #4,057
  • Apr 18, 2011 4:36am Apr 18, 2011 4:36am
Hi V,

I'm really sorry to hear about your mum's passing away. My condolences to you and mrs. V.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,058
  • Apr 18, 2011 4:51am Apr 18, 2011 4:51am
My prayers are with you and your family. Steve
  • #4,059
  • Apr 18, 2011 4:53am Apr 18, 2011 4:53am
Dave, I'm so sorry to hear about your mum. My thoughts and prayers are with you and Mrs.V at this sad time.
  • #4,060
  • Apr 18, 2011 4:56am Apr 18, 2011 4:56am
My wife and I are very sorry to hear about the loss of your mum. We will be praying for you and Mrs. V. Charles and Darice
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