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  • #21
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:17am Apr 15, 2011 1:17am
Quoting blackqn
If I remember correctly some of us pointed out some preferences already:

1) Whistlepips - GBP/USD, (EUR/GBP or EUR/JPY?) D1
2) Anthar
3) GhostMcFly - AUD/USD H4
4) LearningPIPs
5) Blackqn - EUR/USD, GBP/JPY H4

It looks that we need at lest one sticking to D1 yet, if Anthar and LearningPIPs want H4, I can switch myself to D1. Just let's agree who and what.
Good morning. Yes it was actually EUR/GBP. I could check them on D1 and H4. With testings on a single TF I think we should agree on the entry point. I have used previously about half of the trigger candle, when I was testing 3 taps, but should it be even earlier with BO´s? Just to give some idea could it be e.g:
- entry 50 pips after BO line or scout wick in daily charts
- entry 20 pips after BO line or scout wick in 4 h charts
Maybe one of the objectives of this testing could be to identify optimum amount of pips for entry in different TFs? PA is really important thing here also. Im not an expert with it. Should we decide something on that also or to check and find out during testing? Anyway on this testing I think that the PA observations should be made on that particular TF which is selected in testing?

With testing TP´s in 3 taps I came up with an idea that you could use consolidation levels as TP levels. I suggested before that maybe we should check these also. By that I mean that what is the potential profit if you exit on first consolidation level, what would be the profit if you take a risk and let it run to the next consolidation level, etc. With this we could check how often this kind of risk is worth taking. If we are using excel sheet for results this would be only an extra column after the first TP. So there would be TP1, TP2, TP...x how far it seems to go. I have used the half point of a consolidation level in my exit level in those previous studies so here´s another thing to decide. With 3 taps I also realised that it could be a good idea to test SL-levels smaller than last swing high/low. So there could be two SL levels to check. SL last swing and SL minimum reguired. The columns on the excel sheet could be as follows?
Currency pair, Date, Entry level, SL last swing, SL min, TP 1, TP 2...

Hope this makes sense. I dont think that it would be a big problem if we do these differently on a first round. On the contrary, by familiarising with each others testing we could learn from each other and have some new ideas to test. Im not able to start until tonight, but will be more than glad to see your results if you can start earlier.

I´m really looking forward to do this Lets see what we can put together.
  • #22
  • Edited 1:01pm Apr 15, 2011 12:47pm | Edited 1:01pm
Thanks Black! There might be some wisdom behind your ideas about daily and 4H BO´s related to monthly and weekly 4 first candles. I just made some preliminary testing a couple of months with gbp/usd and came into some questions. What do you guys think about these?

I found that on daily charts that +50 pips after the BO line might make a good entry if you check it only from the daily chart. I thought that I might check entrys afterwards from 30 min chart according to the specific dates of the entrys. I found also that the BO line could act as a SL level so the last swing idea is probably not valid in daily testing in BO´s. Potential TP lines on the other hand seems to be a good idea. E.g. if you look at G/U BO on daily chart 17.2.2010 the first consolidation after BO is some + 160 pips away. But if you wait for the second......+700 pips! It takes several day to reach that but thats a months pips in a single trade. I found somewhat problematic to check wicks in a daily chart and according to my preliminary findings it seems that on a daily chart if you wait for the price to pass scout wick, there may not be a lot of profit left. My preliminary suggestion is that maybe scout wicks doesn´t matter so much on a daily chart, but I will get back into this after I´ve done some more testing.

It would be nice to share your thoughts also during the testing.
  • #23
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:02pm Apr 15, 2011 1:02pm
Heres the picture.

Notice also that the 2nd consolidation lies around big numers 1.5000.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU170210.PNG Size: 119 KB
  • #24
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:20pm Apr 15, 2011 1:20pm
You ma be right with the wicks, however ot looks like ordynary BO witch changed scale. It is oftentimes that after cleared scout there is short run, small consolidation or even retracement then continuation. Here I think it may be interesting to enter after retracement, if it occurs eact time, so we have breakout confirmed in classic way. But it is only my small thought.

I'll try to do some testing hopefuly tonight and I'll share results or observations I have.
Time matters most
  • #25
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:48pm Apr 15, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting blackqn
You ma be right with the wicks, however ot looks like ordynary BO witch changed scale. It is oftentimes that after cleared scout there is short run, small consolidation or even retracement then continuation. Here I think it may be interesting to enter after retracement, if it occurs eact time, so we have breakout confirmed in classic way. But it is only my small thought.

I'll try to do some testing hopefuly tonight and I'll share results or observations I have.
Wicks may be important if you try to find your entry from lower timeframes. However, if you use only daily charts, wicks may not be so important. Another thing that Im thinking at the moment is should you make an entry only to a full daily candle and to put your SL some 20 pips below S/R in case of scouts. Anyways it seems that in the daily frame one BO success could easily cover 10-15 losses if you let it run...
I´ll get back to you in a moment while I complete my first G/U test. BTW this discussion is atleast as important than the testing.
  • #26
  • Apr 15, 2011 1:57pm Apr 15, 2011 1:57pm
You may be right there. I'm trying GBP/JPY now and it offered in first week only 60pips, however possible SL was around 26pips. It looks that indeed entry must be based on passage of S/R, not always it is confirmed by retrace...
Time matters most
  • #27
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:33pm Apr 15, 2011 2:33pm
The first results from G/U

sl Tp1 tp 2 tp3 date
130 5.2
160 700 17.2
50 16.3
50 24.3
100 8.4
130 470 6.5
50 15.6
50 300 17.6
100 14.7
SL? 20 20.7
450 22.7
50 100 200 11.8
90 180 14.9
SL 13.10
50 18.10
SL 19.10
SL 22.10
SL 29.10
SL 16.11
400 23.11
SL 13.12
130 19.12
200 13.1
70 28.2
50 100 7.3
250 24.3

It seems that daily chart BO works better if the currency is trending. If it´s ranging there will be a lot of false BO´s. You probably should use a different kind of entry in ranging currencies. Perhaps the BO lines could act as S/R lines during ranging as LG has made some trades. The big thing here is to know when the BO lines from the first four candles of the month are acting as a range S/R lines and when there will be a break out outside them. This is an interesting question where I dont have an answer at the moment.
  • #28
  • Apr 15, 2011 2:50pm Apr 15, 2011 2:50pm
And here´s some results from GBP/USD if you would have taken 3 taps from daily chart according to the major trend on daily (and would have known, when it´s right time to exit.......).
+100, +500, +800, +450, +400, +90, +350, +500, +50, +90, SL, +300. Some of them would have been running for a fortnight or so. So the important questiong here is to define when is the appropriate time to exit. We know when to enter by 3 tap, but has anyone of you found a way for a solid exit plan. I have the same problem with my 4H 3 taps. If only there could be something like 3 tap setup for exit also......
  • #29
  • Edited 4:36pm Apr 15, 2011 3:10pm | Edited 4:36pm
Here´s an idea of exit from daily 3 taps. Not a final one though. I just went through the 3 tap setups with G/U and the candle formation presented in the picture could act as a lead to exit. If you are in a trend and the wick before is higher/lower than the wick after, it could act as an indicator to exit.

However the second slide in the picture would not have been taken so a lot of the profit would have been lost. If you have any suggestions of how to analyse this further I would be more than glad to know.

Two arising candles (wicks) to make confirmation of exit?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU042010.PNG Size: 116 KB
  • #30
  • Apr 15, 2011 4:06pm Apr 15, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting blackqn
You may be right there. I'm trying GBP/JPY now and it offered in first week only 60pips, however possible SL was around 26pips. It looks that indeed entry must be based on passage of S/R, not always it is confirmed by retrace...
I dont understand your last phrase "...confirmed by retrace". What do you mean by that. Could you simplify it?
S/R possibly also confirmed by big numbers. I saw that every once in a while during G/U testing, where the BO lines seemed not to act as S/R levels. So in case BO levels are near big numbers we should consider using them instead?
  • #31
  • Apr 15, 2011 4:14pm Apr 15, 2011 4:14pm
Quoting Whistlepips
I dont understand your last phrase "...confirmed by retrace". What do you mean by that. Could you simplify it?
S/R possibly also confirmed by big numbers. I saw that every once in a while during G/U testing, where the BO lines seemed not to act as S/R levels.
I mean that PA after breakout oftentimes retraces just to touch S/R it alreade broken and then continue move in direction of breakout. This however happens not very often. Conservative entry waits for such a "confirmation" of breakout (that price did not come back to consolidation area). I hope now it is more clearly stated
Time matters most
  • #32
  • Apr 15, 2011 4:20pm Apr 15, 2011 4:20pm
Quoting blackqn
I mean that PA after breakout oftentimes retraces just to touch S/R it alreade broken and then continue move in direction of breakout. This however happens not very often. Conservative entry waits for such a "confirmation" of breakout (that price did not come back to consolidation area). I hope now it is more clearly stated
Ok. I got it. I think that this is not the case if you look it only from a daily chart, but may be so on smaller timeframes, which poses the next question. What should be an appropriate TF to search for retraces for setups from larger (e.g. Daily) timeframes.
  • #33
  • Apr 15, 2011 4:52pm Apr 15, 2011 4:52pm
I was able to do only 4 weeks today, so more results will be tomorrow. What I can say now is that without PA and Money Management (ie. without moving SL and TP) the results won't be as good as they could - for instance, on a very sharp and long run I had only 25 pips out of 150!

But first I will try to do it without PA. Here's my approach to H4 4C:

 

  1. always take first 4C of the week to mark H4-4C zone and watch for BO;
  2. use wicks to determine a breakout (do not wait for retrace - go on a BO);
  3. put SL in the H4-4C zone;
  4. put TP on S/R or on any other reasonable level (it shouldn't be much lower than SL, Risk:Reward ratio shouldn't be lower than 1:1);
  5. watch for obvious consolidation zones and then follow rules #2, #3 and #4.

I will also try to write a small journal with screenshots in excel for this test.
Any ideas or tips are welcome. Please tell me if I am doing something wrong.

Attached Image
  • #34
  • Apr 15, 2011 5:11pm Apr 15, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting GhostMcFly
I was able to do only 4 weeks today, so more results will be tomorrow. What I can say now is that without PA and Money Management (ie. without moving SL and TP) the results won't be as good as they could - for instance, on a very sharp and long run I had only 25 pips out of 150!

But first I will try to do it without PA. Here's my approach to H4 4C:
[list=1][*]always take first 4C of the week to mark H4-4C zone and watch for BO;[*]use wicks to determine a breakout (do not wait for retrace - go on a BO);[*]put SL in the H4-4C zone;[*]put TP...
Interesting results. With daily charts in G/U last year it seems that you shouldnt wait for a retrace, nor scout wick but just to enter some 50 pips after the candle has broken the 4 C line (4 days in the daily chart). If I understood correctly you didnt find any systematic approach to exit either. Ill get back to you after some sleep. Good night.
  • #35
  • Apr 16, 2011 3:01am Apr 16, 2011 3:01am
Too bad we cannot switch to smaller TF... S/R levels I have marked only on a H4 TF basis. RSI indicator works only for H4 in visual test - as for H1,D1,W1,MN the RSI trend arrows use current real date, ie. 04.15.2011, not a date of the tested day.

I use LFH_Simulator_Limit_Stop_Buy and Sell scripts to take trades. So far entry is clear (a Breakout), but I think I will have to do something with exits and TP later on, because I feel like I take trades like a robot
  • #36
  • Apr 16, 2011 4:12am Apr 16, 2011 4:12am
I have some first results, test is going slowly,but what I see is that enter must be after wick passage without waiting for H4 candle close, maybe it may be somehow PA-confirmed on smaller TF or connected with daily (4CH1) breakout.

For GBPJPY on 4CH4 consolidations:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: table.JPG Size: 46 KB


There were some problems where PA was ranging, but I'm sure that confirmation on lower TF may help to avoid problems. Also move of SL is a good idea, so partial income at TP1 and SL move above entry prevents from loses when PA wents other direction after TP1 is reached. It is interesting that TP1 is oftentimes around R/S levels for day of trade. Looking deeper it is possible that these R/S are additionaly associated with some past R/S. Some more testing I'll try to do today.
Time matters most
  • #37
  • Apr 16, 2011 4:55am Apr 16, 2011 4:55am
Quoting blackqn
I have some first results, test is going slowly,but what I see is that enter must be after wick passage without waiting for H4 candle close, maybe it may be somehow PA-confirmed on smaller TF or connected with daily (4CH1) breakout.

For GBPJPY on 4CH4 consolidations:

Attachment

There were some problems where PA was ranging, but I'm sure that confirmation on lower TF may help to avoid problems. Also move of SL is a good idea, so partial income at TP1 and SL move above entry prevents from loses when PA wents other direction after...
Interesting. Has there been any false BO´s? How have you dealt with them? If I understood correctly you have made the entry really close to BO line or just after wick. Have you seen any false breakouts?
  • #38
  • Apr 16, 2011 6:42am Apr 16, 2011 6:42am
Quoting Whistlepips
Interesting. Has there been any false BO´s? How have you dealt with them? If I understood correctly you have made the entry really close to BO line or just after wick. Have you seen any false breakouts?
I had some false BO, one was SL:

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...seBOaudusd.png


I had also H4 3C breakout - ie. BO was on the 4th cadle:

http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/d...3CBOaudusd.png

(to the left you can see false BO as well, but in this case my TP at 0.8708 was hit and I was luckily out)

Today I restarted the test and am writting many comments and adding many screens to excel file. If someone wants to see how it looks, please use attached file: there is an xls file with 'journal' and 'detailed statement' tabs worth reading (me thinks). 'H4 4C BO test Aud_Usd StrategyTester.htm" report is not finished yet, because I am in the middle of the test currently.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip H4 4C BO test Aud_Usd.zip   137 KB | 205 downloads
  • #39
  • Apr 16, 2011 7:27am Apr 16, 2011 7:27am
Quoting Whistlepips
Interesting. Has there been any false BO´s? How have you dealt with them? If I understood correctly you have made the entry really close to BO line or just after wick. Have you seen any false breakouts?
Got one or two, but I haven't managed to enter de to so quick reversal... It was rather from additional consolidation in the mddle of week. First 4C of the week made consolidation where fakeout did not occur yet, but it was only one month so far.

And I've missed really long move downwards. Frst breakout was upwards, then it retraced then went to TP1 then reversed and went downwards and it was probably some kind of important data reading since candle was very long 300pips or so. I was waiting at the begining to have first breakout candle closed, but I've changed my mind after this one candle
Time matters most
  • #40
  • Edited 10:50am Apr 16, 2011 10:13am | Edited 10:50am
Have made my G/U D14C BO test. I will check H4 3 taps from all the currencies last week and after that I send you the results.
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