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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #4,021
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:47pm Apr 6, 2011 10:47pm
I quit live trading around the earth quake because I had no idea what a huge earthquake with possible nuclear fallout would do to the markets. I chose to just stay clear. I am using this time to do some testing.
  • #4,022
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:53pm Apr 6, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting MorningMania
What kind of lotsize will you be aiming for? Or in how many pips do you plan to break even?

I too have been watching the 8MA and so far it has kept me out of, what would have been, bad recovery trades.

While I'm still in the NZDJPY I did make some nice pips on the CHF today.
That depends on the depth of the DD. The bigger the DD the bigger the lot size to reenter. If you have -400 and you use the same lot size BE is 200 pips away. If you double then BE is 100 pips away. You may try to do this in one trade or a series of trades. For example when price turns around there is a consolidation period and you may try to get 3 40 or 50 pips trades to get to BE. Gotta play with it some more and see. I may get 50 pips at double lot size and other trades for the day will get me my other pips to BE. So those are some ideas.
  • #4,023
  • Apr 6, 2011 10:55pm Apr 6, 2011 10:55pm
Here is another reason the market is crazy right now.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) have their 6-monthly policy meeting next week. The thing about the MAS is that they use an exchange rate mechanism rather than interest rate policy, to manage their monetary system. They have been intervening very heavily this week to keep the USD/SGD rate steady above 1.2600 before their meeting starts.
The follow-on effects of this is that their neighbours in countries like Malaysia don’t want their currency strengthening against the SGD and so they are forced to intervene as well.
The number are large, possibly over USD10 billion in total already this week, and 50% of this is recycled into EUR, AUD etc. No wonder the EUR/USD has trouble falling despite really bearish news.
  • #4,024
  • Apr 7, 2011 10:16am Apr 7, 2011 10:16am
Quoting nanningbob
Here is another reason the market is crazy right now.

The Monetary...
And I was just wondering why is USDSGD clinicaly dead for some time ;o)
Dreaming in Charts...
  • #4,025
  • Edited 4:00pm Apr 7, 2011 3:39pm | Edited 4:00pm
I really adrmire Japanese people for their endurance and their human resistance to disaster as they again had earthquake with more than 7 Richter.
I was really surprised learning the fact that after their last big quake last month they had aftershocks of 4-6 richter every 10 minutes in the following period.
As a fact, aftershocks of this magnitude would wipe my home country flat.
I wish them all the luck and good in this world.
Dreaming in Charts...
  • #4,026
  • Apr 8, 2011 5:15am Apr 8, 2011 5:15am
HI

Please find attached my results for the last 7 days. Trading was very light but managed $75.00 profit. AS you can see the DD has jumped from very reasonable $180 of last week to over $600 now (Was $400 24 hours ago). The current DD is roughly equal to the profit of the last 3 months. Few trades are in L2 and CADJPY is in L3.

As you know in current market conditions I must be CRAZY to trade live. But never mind, I keep telling myself when DD reaches $100 I will close all trades, but keep adding trades which look very good and you know the rest.

Kind Regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls NB VER5.3 results 01 to 08 April.xls   94 KB | 371 downloads
  • #4,027
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:37pm Apr 9, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting astral77
HI

Please find attached my results for the last 7 days. Trading was very light but managed $75.00 profit. AS you can see the DD has jumped from very reasonable $180 of last week to over $600 now (Was $400 24 hours ago). The current DD is roughly equal to the profit of the last 3 months. Few trades are in L2 and CADJPY is in L3.

As you know in current market conditions I must be CRAZY to trade live. But never mind, I keep telling myself when DD reaches $100 I will close all trades, but keep adding trades which look very good and you know the...
Astral, I remember very often the Nanninbob words when he said that this was not the time to play around with XXXJPY pairs. I am in deep DD too. We have to wait for a miracle as fa as we can resist...
  • #4,028
  • Apr 10, 2011 2:16am Apr 10, 2011 2:16am
It's times like these that keep me humble and remind me to keep my lots down. Most of the time, when the market ranges, I look at my account, my margin and my drawdown and dream about how much money I could make if I multiplied my lots by 10 or more, most of the time that would not be a problem.

These last few weeks have been a strong reminder of the importance of the money management rules that have been repeated in this thread over and over. The only reason my account is still ok is that I have kept my lots small.
  • #4,029
  • Apr 10, 2011 4:13am Apr 10, 2011 4:13am
Quoting nanningbob
I have been working on a hedging trade for many years. Here are the first steps to building my philosophy on closing a hedge. Sorry the information is so short but it is in its baby steps of formation. Because I know some guys have hedged I am posting this so you can give yourself a chance to getting out of you hedges safely. Here is a pic with the basic steps. You need a 60MA line smoothed on a 4H chart and a 8 MA smoothed. If you are closing a buy hedge you use a 5MA High Linear Weighted and if you are closing a sell hedge a 5MA Low Linear Weighted....
Hi Bob. I just want to check that I understand this, because I can incorporate it in mptm and the mptm features in other auto-traders. You have read my post describing the protective hedge I have in place for the L4 EJ sell. Imagine it has already filled.

On the attached picture, my understanding is:

 

  1. I close the buy when the low breaks below the light blue line.
  2. I re-enter the hedge should the market later start to rise again and the highs break above the black line.

Am I correct?

Cheers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,030
  • Apr 10, 2011 10:53pm Apr 10, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting SteveHopwood
Hi Bob. I just want to check that I understand this, because I can incorporate it in mptm and the mptm features in other auto-traders. You have read my post describing the protective hedge I have in place for the L4 EJ sell. Imagine it has already filled.

On the attached picture, my understanding is:

 

  1. I close the buy when the low breaks below the light blue line.
  2. I re-enter the hedge should the market later start to rise again and the highs break above the black line.

Am I correct?

Cheers

No the break of the blue line signals the start to trade. Be careful that it is a break and not a touch. When you have a break of the blue line then turn on the EA. When price hits the 5MA high then it closes the profit trade and enters the counter trade. Opposite when at the bottom of the screen.
  • #4,031
  • Apr 10, 2011 10:58pm Apr 10, 2011 10:58pm
usd jpy example, demo account.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,032
  • Apr 10, 2011 11:00pm Apr 10, 2011 11:00pm
nzd jpy example
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,033
  • Apr 10, 2011 11:06pm Apr 10, 2011 11:06pm
Here is a buy that almost made it. Close but no cigar on this one but shows the idea.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,034
  • Apr 10, 2011 11:17pm Apr 10, 2011 11:17pm
Hi Bob, Awesome work. Have you thought about waiting for the candle to close below/above the 8ma instead of relying on the wick for the break. Maybe this would provide better confirmation of reversal. Just my thoughts
  • #4,035
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:13am Apr 11, 2011 12:13am
Quoting nanningbob
Here is a buy that almost made it. Close but no cigar on this one but shows the idea.
Cheers Bob.

  • #4,036
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:55am Apr 11, 2011 1:55am
Quoting Frodog
Hi Bob, Awesome work. Have you thought about waiting for the candle to close below/above the 8ma instead of relying on the wick for the break. Maybe this would provide better confirmation of reversal. Just my thoughts
Dont have enough experience yet to answer that question. However, I am not a wait till the candle closes kind of guy. Market open of close maybe a better indicator of when is what I suspect would work better. Also this works best after long runs. Dont know if it works well in normal market conditions yet. Beginning stages of discovery here.
  • #4,037
  • Apr 13, 2011 4:22am Apr 13, 2011 4:22am
Yesterday it seemed things were moving in the right direction but today it's turned around again. Will the trend continue or is this a pullback after yesterday's drop? Who knows....

On a positive note. Making a trip to the US in a few weeks time, quite happy with the EURUSD now
  • #4,038
  • Apr 15, 2011 9:47am Apr 15, 2011 9:47am
Hi Bob

Please find attached my results for the last 7 days. Despite panic and closing some trades prematurely still managed $50 profit and the DD is much healthier than last week (down to $388 from $647). The profit for the year is $680.

Unfortunately, I am so busy that I am not trading the system properly (too many mistakes). But despite of this, your system is so robust that it still managed a decent profit. I am sure if you were trading the profit would have been around the $1500 mark. I will be posting my results for the next 8 months and I am hoping to have a profit of $1500 by then which would be a very very decent 80% return (trading 10 cent lots only).

I am hoping by the end of the year my results can show that despite the stupid NFA rules (No hedge, 50:1 margin, etc) and the very volatile market conditions NB 4H VER 5.3 system is still suitable for US traders.

Kind regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls NB VER 5.3 8th to 15th april 2011.xls   116 KB | 355 downloads
  • #4,039
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:04pm Apr 15, 2011 12:04pm
Good job astral
I have started demoing since you turned me on to it
doing ok DD getting up there
STAY AWAY FROM JPY
those are the 1's I'm in a little trouble with.
I almost want to just close all and I would still be in a profit but I want to rid it out and see. Demo thank goodness

have a nice week end
  • #4,040
  • Apr 15, 2011 5:57pm Apr 15, 2011 5:57pm
Quoting dryclean
Good job astral
I have started demoing since you turned me on to it doing ok DD getting up...
Thanks Dave, however, if I was asked to rate my performance I would give it 45%. It is great to have you here. As you know BOB manages a school in Nanning, China and he designed the 4H system to fit around his work. As such his system is ideal for people like us (i.e. working full time with very limited free time). Do use PHOVER`s dashboard, it will save you a lot of time and by using it you can scan the charts within minutes. I was fortunate to have been involved with bob`s threads since 15 months ago and IMHO VER 5.3 is the best. I hope he decides to resume trading this system once again if we can show that it is still suitable despite the ridiculous restrictions imposed on US citizens.

DD of around 1500 is quite normal for this system, however, as you know for the last couple of years or so we seem to be going through one crisis after other and as a result DD of around 3000 does happen from time to time also.
IMHO there are two areas which are in need of improvement. One is the exit strategy (I have been looking at Chuck LeBeau`s work in this area) and the other is identifying the strength of the trend and the likelihood of retracement, in particular when you are looking for L2 , L3 reentries. People like toothman use RSI divergences for this purpose with high degree of success. I am currently studying the prospect of utilizing adx/dmi analysis for this purpose (ADXcellence book by Dr Schaap seems quite useful in this regard).

Kind regards
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