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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,701
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:19am Apr 15, 2011 8:19am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Be wary, some potential buying came in at, well, every time frame. Huge volume.

13:40 bar on the 5min though.
Thanks. Moved stop to better than be, and will let it ride. Not convinced this move.
  • #18,702
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:21am Apr 15, 2011 8:21am
Difficult to say. M5 is bullish, but M15 just made an upthrust. What prevails in this case? On the 5M chart there was already 2 NS bars to confirm the upmove and on the M15 previous upthrust has not bean broken to the down side yet.

If it reaches 1.4411 on lower volume than 2 prev bars I'll close.
  • #18,703
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:25am Apr 15, 2011 8:25am
Quoting Beljevina
Fosking, I think that weekly volume is suspect - I'm not seeing anywhere near that type of increase in a reliable feed, plus check a 2nd and it looks fairly normal. Futures on weekly don't show a marked increase either.
You're absolutely right. Just checked on my MBT account and saw this.


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  • #18,704
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:31am Apr 15, 2011 8:31am
Quoting dvarrin
Difficult to say. M5 is bullish, but M15 just made an upthrust. What prevails in this case? On the 5M chart there was already 2 NS bars to confirm the upmove and on the M15 previous upthrust has not bean broken to the down side yet.

If it reaches 1.4411 on lower volume than 2 prev bars I'll close.
Be aware of important U.S data at 9:55 ET as well.
  • #18,705
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:32am Apr 15, 2011 8:32am
I'm out, but down move going on :-| Well not bad! and it reached the average daily range too.
  • #18,706
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:34am Apr 15, 2011 8:34am
Quoting dvarrin
Difficult to say. M5 is bullish, but M15 just made an upthrust. What prevails in this case? On the 5M chart there was already 2 NS bars to confirm the upmove and on the M15 previous upthrust has not bean broken to the down side yet.

If it reaches 1.4411 on lower volume than 2 prev bars I'll close.
Forget the M5 - it's there to confuse. How the M15 and how the bars print in the last few minutes of the close are important, as are the VSA principles of where and how the bar closes.

Having said that, a new low and failure. Oh, happy day for shorters ... But don't be complacent - book partial profits. Support at 4394, but I think we'd be testing 4365.

EU and euro sentiment I'd say has shifted ... not saying the mid-term/long-term trend has changed, but short-term short profits are possible.
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  • #18,707
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:40am Apr 15, 2011 8:40am
Quoting Beljevina
Forget the M5 - it's there to confuse. How the M15 and how the bars print in the last few minutes of the close are important, as are the VSA principles of where and how the bar closes.

Having said that, a new low and failure. Oh, happy day for shorters ... But don't be complacent - book partial profits. Support at 4394, but I think we'd be testing 4365.

EU and euro sentiment I'd say has shifted ... not saying the mid-term/long-term trend has changed, but short-term short profits are possible.
Not sure it will go to 4365. It is now touching the trendline joining the low of the 7th of April and the previous low at 1.4365. We could be at the end of a wave 2.
  • #18,708
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:42am Apr 15, 2011 8:42am
Quoting neutral
Thanks. Moved stop to better than be, and will let it ride. Not convinced this move.
...or you could ignore my advice what i said at the time seemed valid as the 5min printed a NS/test.

Hope you made some pips off it.
  • #18,709
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:46am Apr 15, 2011 8:46am
Definite buying coming in. Will exit short before news, with bias to a long entry.
  • #18,710
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:52am Apr 15, 2011 8:52am
Out for 40 pips.
  • #18,711
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:52am Apr 15, 2011 8:52am
Quoting dvarrin
Not sure it will go to 4365. It is now touching the trendline joining the low of the 7th of April and the previous low at 1.4365. We could be at the end of a wave 2.
Yes, there's much volume support/buying it appears at that low just below 4395 and now is holding above it. Time to look for the VSA signals in the M15 & M5 bars - the low may be in. Have closed 80% of my shorts and rest are BE. Based on the PA so far, let's see the hourly close, but I would not rule out another dip down towards 4395. Discrepancy is the H1 may not close with notable strength, but M15 showing signs. ADR looks about 100 pips for the day, the last 60 pips in the last hour lol!

On waves - don't know them from a dart board, lol!
  • #18,712
  • Apr 15, 2011 8:55am Apr 15, 2011 8:55am
nice NS just before the news!
  • #18,713
  • Apr 15, 2011 9:02am Apr 15, 2011 9:02am
target of upmove should be between 1.4436 and 1.4448
  • #18,714
  • Apr 15, 2011 9:07am Apr 15, 2011 9:07am
closing at 4430 for 20 pips. Enough for today!!
  • #18,715
  • Apr 15, 2011 10:03am Apr 15, 2011 10:03am
This is the only set up I really saw today. A short on 5min Cable. Didn't take it because of the upcoming news announcement. Turns out it would have easily hit 1:1 before the news announcement. The news then served to push it further down after going up on ultra high volume.
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  • #18,716
  • Apr 15, 2011 10:26am Apr 15, 2011 10:26am
Quoting KinsaleForex
This is the only set up I really saw today. A short on 5min Cable. Didn't take it because of the upcoming news announcement. Turns out it would have easily hit 1:1 before the news announcement. The news then served to push it further down after going up on ultra high volume.
I'd been following GU from yesterday NY and that high volume upthrust, visible on both M15 and H1. Saw a couple of further testing for highs, but weakness on the M15 (a few posts over in the GU thread). Was a lethargic journey though, and took half off at 6300. Still looking for 627 POC visit, maybe.
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  • #18,717
  • Apr 15, 2011 11:01am Apr 15, 2011 11:01am
If one looks really closely, you can almost see the NDs up towards the DPP, but that's traditionally been the death knell of a euro shorter for weeks now, especially as the Friday rocket PA unfolds.

Today's a little more sublime, and we're behaving more technically; thought the prev low at 44128 would hold, but turned out to be POC and psyche 4402. Hourly isn't showing much strength IMO - will be interesting to see the daily and weekly close. Don't think we've got much more movement left here. But, I can't help but think more testing on the downside early next week - 1.431 on Monday? We'll see.

Can't help but think the 1.452 barrier is formidable. Seems like we've got ~2 days now of 'different' ("just can't get up there") H1 prints. Happy weekend to all.
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  • #18,718
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:15pm Apr 15, 2011 12:15pm
So 1hr after NY open we had a nice 2 bar bottom reversal followed by many, many 5 min entries long on oil.
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  • #18,719
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:33pm Apr 15, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting pres78
So 1hr after NY open we had a nice 2 bar bottom reversal followed by many, many 5 min entries long on oil.
What did you make of the ultra high volume up bar Jason - didn't that spook you out of a long?
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  • #18,720
  • Apr 15, 2011 12:44pm Apr 15, 2011 12:44pm
Quoting Steve Gill
What did you make of the ultra high volume up bar Jason - didn't that spook you out of a long?
Good question actually, unless there's a previous area to the left and it's pushing through supply?
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