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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,641
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:05am Apr 14, 2011 10:05am
Quoting Beljevina
Important to note that NY has an impeccable record of buying this thing up, from this point on and into the afternoon.
Another day, another copy of SOP (Standard operating procedure). Up 110 pips in a couple of NY morning hours, from the London low. Will be interesting to see if it gets to 1.452 again - one would expect the same beat down and option protection - it's had 3 daily failures, in a row, although the fourth time tends to have a higher success of breaking through.

Seeing high futures volume around spot's 4468/4475, so looking for short potential.
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  • #18,642
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:17am Apr 14, 2011 10:17am
Quoting dvarrin
That's exactly that :-)) Thanks a lot KinsaleForex!!

This also makes me think of an other question. If I had already a trigger line in the area of the new bar with high volume, does it immediately replace the old trigger line?
You're really making me work today

I replace the trigger line yes, but in the previous example, with the volumes being very similar it would probably be okay to keep an eye on all of the levels. But for the sake of tidiness i try not to have too many lines on the chart.

You'll notice that the high of bar 4 is the same as the close of bar 3 and the high of bar 3 is the low of bar 2.

By the way, call me Liam
  • #18,643
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:28am Apr 14, 2011 10:28am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i just watched a tradeguider seminar and gavin used as a test bar a high vol bar, it wasn't the main condition of a test bar to have lower vol then previous 2 candles? and a if has high vol it means the market is in supply mode?
thank's, sorin.
  • #18,644
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:03am Apr 14, 2011 11:03am
i wake up to find out my long order was 5 pips away from the daily's low. I am starting to not like this congestion move.
  • #18,645
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:07am Apr 14, 2011 11:07am
An advance apology on the lines on this chart (sometimes, I don't know where they come from ) but just wanted to do the broken record thing and preach about how well support works at the day's opening price.

I tend to bet a bigger part of the farm on these buys, and then grab an initial 20 pips and let the rest ride. I have found you can use the spot opening price to buy 6E futures as well, and grab some quick'n'good pips there too. They've certainly been supporting the price and riding it up, plus we're into the NY lunch hour of optimism, so buying risk is minimal.
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  • #18,646
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:33pm Apr 14, 2011 1:33pm
Beljevina, I'm just curious on your thoughts on the GBP/JPY I it looks like on the 4 hour chart there has been a lot of buying over the past few days....I got into a nice long this morning off the 5 min chart and I would usually close my position happy now, but based on the 4 Hour chart I can't seem to justify closing it.

We have not been below 135.00 since the first of the month and it while a lot of the highest volume has occurred on down candles for the most part we have held above 136.00
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  • #18,647
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:40pm Apr 14, 2011 1:40pm
Looking at the EU futures weekly, as we all know its such a narrow range for the week. However what interests me is the volume - presuming Friday's are their normal low even if we push above 1.4520 tomorrow it's likely to appear as a no demand on the weekly.

I made 95 pips in a buy today (out now) but even if we breach above 1.4520 tomorrow and hold I'll be nervous. I'm suspecting the buying we saw today was supporting the price for distribution - I'm more short biased at the moment (in fact I'm out of trades for this week biased at the moment).

What does everyone else think?
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  • #18,648
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:45pm Apr 14, 2011 1:45pm
I am short biased, I feel something big is in the offing, so it will probably happen in that dead spot at 3am EST.
  • #18,649
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:49pm Apr 14, 2011 1:49pm
Hey Steve, I share your thoughts. Looking at the recent hourly chart I see wicked high volume candles which show that mentioned hidden selling (IMO). I know Mal wrote about 1.48 and he will have (or at least had) good reasons which one should listen to it very carefully. I'm quite curious about his recent view. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Best,
Ox

Quoting Steve Gill
Looking at the EU futures weekly, as we all know its such a narrow range for the week. However what interests me is the volume - presuming Friday's are their normal low even if we push above 1.4520 tomorrow it's likely to appear as a no demand on the weekly.

I made 95 pips in a buy today (out now) but even if we breach above 1.4520 tomorrow and hold I'll be nervous. I'm suspecting the buying we saw today was supporting the price for distribution - I'm more short biased at the moment (in fact I'm out of trades for this week biased at the moment).

What...
  • #18,650
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:56pm Apr 14, 2011 1:56pm
If there are many no-demand bars at the likely top of a trend, what has to appear to confirm a bearish trend?
  • #18,651
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:11pm Apr 14, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting dvarrin
If there are many no-demand bars at the likely top of a trend, what has to appear to confirm a bearish trend?
There needs to be weakness before the no demand bars, ie, buying climax, upthrust, increasing volume on decreasing range upbars (end of a rising market), only after these would you be looking for your no demand bar, and the no demand bar would be confirmed within the next 2 bars with a break of the low. And this would be your entry.


Here read this it might help as a quick refence guide.
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  • #18,652
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:21pm Apr 14, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting pipaday
Beljevina, I'm just curious on your thoughts on the GBP/JPY I it looks like on the 4 hour chart there has been a lot of buying over the past few days....I got into a nice long this morning off the 5 min chart and I would usually close my position happy now, but based on the 4 Hour chart I can't seem to justify closing it.

We have not been below 135.00 since the first of the month and it while a lot of the highest volume has occurred on down candles for the most part we have held above 136.00
Reading volume into these I find really difficult. Combining it with candle prints on H1 & M15 along with trendlines is the best way for me to trade this. But, the huge unpredictability IMO is what is up with the yen and yen crosses; I find EURJPY to give better reads lately on M15 & H1 for all the yen directions. And, monitoring what Asia seems to be doing with EY seems to help me.

Having said that, I am seeing buying in GBPJPY but the movement results are poor IMO, so we might be looking at accumulation until supply from the 139 area is soaked up.

I see it as a down week so far. But, I'm thinking the Friday daily bar print and the weekly might be to drive them up, as has some Fridays been the case - if the downtrend and the TL from 139.9 can be broken, and we get a hourly close above 136.6, we might just get a couple of hundred pips north of here.

136 is pretty good support from the April 4 days and we've bounced off 135.32 which is good pre-March crash support, so I'm optimistic for the upside. If I were trying to sell myself, the current H4 candle print to 135.32 and bounce up looks like it might be a low put in, so on I'm thinking if the TL on the M15 below holds, I might buy around 136 support. But, all those yen/Japan factors make this a tough read in most regards - the only goodness in that is what's a 20 pip move in other pairs is at least 50-70 here, so I tend to catch some of that and let the rest ride for more.
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  • #18,653
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:23pm Apr 14, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
There needs to be weakness before the no demand bars, ie, buying climax, upthrust, increasing volume on decreasing range upbars (end of a rising market), only after these would you be looking for your no demand bar, and the no demand bar would be confirmed within the next 2 bars with a break of the low. And this would be your entry.


Here read this it might help as a quick refence guide.
I agree with this. If this week ends up being no demand and we retrace, it doesn't necessarily mean the trend has changed (ref Malc's 1.48 above) - it might be the SM pausing, dropping the price down to re accumulate further down.

As NaughtyPip says, if there was a buying climax on the weekly (or even daily!) in the background and then no demands up upthrusts, then I'd be more bearish on the euro. As it is, I'm still long term bullish but suspecting that we'll see a reasonable retrace first.

All What ifs though - I should really have reserved this post for the weekend
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  • #18,654
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:49pm Apr 14, 2011 2:49pm
I appreciate the help...it looks like we both see some pretty good potential here, but nothing definitive...So I am going to go with the old stand by when I can't make a decision...close half put the rest at break even and go to sleep....

thanks for the help
  • #18,655
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:59pm Apr 14, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
There needs to be weakness before the no demand bars, ie, buying climax, upthrust, increasing volume on decreasing range upbars (end of a rising market), only after these would you be looking for your no demand bar, and the no demand bar would be confirmed within the next 2 bars with a break of the low. And this would be your entry.


Here read this it might help as a quick refence guide.
Ty NaughtyPip!! And nice document! :-)
  • #18,656
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:05pm Apr 14, 2011 3:05pm
If we look at the 1H chart of EURUSD, we can see there was a wide spread down bar on very high volume. It made a low and then reversed and crossed back the area of that big bar upwards, but volume was decreasing during that up move. What should we expect? Is the price likely to come back down again? This should mean that this last upmove is a retracement of the previous down move and we should expect lower prices to come. Is that right?
  • #18,657
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:24pm Apr 14, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting dvarrin
If we look at the 1H chart of EURUSD, we can see there was a wide spread down bar on very high volume. It made a low and then reversed and crossed back the area of that big bar upwards, but volume was decreasing during that up move. What should we expect? Is the price likely to come back down again? This should mean that this last upmove is a retracement of the previous down move and we should expect lower prices to come. Is that right?
Where are you talking about mate? 10am GMT today? Give some times or a chart maybe?

Cheers
  • #18,658
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:42pm Apr 14, 2011 3:42pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Where are you talking about mate? 10am GMT today? Give some times or a chart maybe?

Cheers
Here is the chart.
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  • #18,659
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:54pm Apr 14, 2011 3:54pm
Quite different volumes on our charts;

I find it a bit awkward to comment seeing as volume starts to drop off on the hourly charts after 4 GMT every day anyway. It's possible we'll see a retrace but you'd be better seeing what happens around the London Open. Perhaps someone else could comment.
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  • #18,660
  • Apr 14, 2011 4:10pm Apr 14, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Quite different volumes on our charts;

I find it a bit awkward to comment seeing as volume starts to drop off on the hourly charts after 4 GMT every day anyway. It's possible we'll see a retrace but you'd be better seeing what happens around the London Open. Perhaps someone else could comment.
Could you please post the EURUSD H4 and daily chart KinsaleForex? The volume on your chart is very similar to the volume I'm getting on my IBFX account, but because of the closing time, I'm getting a bar on Sundays.

Anybody knows a MT4 broker with similar volume and without the Sunday's bars?

Hopefully I'll be using a good volume chart one day ;-)
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