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AUDUSD for informed traders

  • #521
  • Apr 13, 2011 11:07pm Apr 13, 2011 11:07pm
Rtrs-china sovereign wealth fund cic says reports that it may invest in spanish banks are "groundless"
  • #522
  • Apr 14, 2011 12:43am Apr 14, 2011 12:43am
Hi all,
the audusd has done quite alot today already, I expect that price would try to get a "breather".
Exit longs @ 1.0550 we would wait to re-load at a lower price again.
Hope we got some pips?
Meshach.
  • #523
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:45am Apr 14, 2011 1:45am
For reasons of safety and to serve as an alternate exit signal, move your stop loss to 1.0524
Happy trading!
Meshach.
  • #524
  • Apr 14, 2011 5:06am Apr 14, 2011 5:06am
any news coming triggered AUD to turn south? Will it go up again and test 1.06? Thanks.
  • #525
  • Apr 14, 2011 5:47am Apr 14, 2011 5:47am
Quoting tkhlam
any news coming triggered AUD to turn south? Will it go up again and test 1.06? Thanks.
I think bad news frm Greece did damaged the sentiment of the market...
I would favour a short at dis moment for short run....however..better wait til NY market to make further decision
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #526
  • Apr 14, 2011 7:24am Apr 14, 2011 7:24am
Still short JPY crosses. If their prices slip another day, I'll be eating joicy hamburgers instead of dry dog food. Watch out, they may suck AUD/USD down with them. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #527
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:10am Apr 14, 2011 8:10am
Hi all,
sorry I slept off. Buy AUDUSD @ market price 1.0500 TP 1.0675 SL 1.0436
From 1.0675 place a sell .
Happy trading!
Meshach.
  • #528
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:58am Apr 14, 2011 8:58am
usd bear what is your comment, if you dont mind me asking?
thanks
  • #529
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:58pm Apr 14, 2011 1:58pm
This report might make you wary about going short in the buying frenzy on AUD although it's referring to AUDJPY it tends to drive the other AUD pairs including AUDUSD. Reckons around 100,000 Japanese housewives are trading the pair
http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/ns...ousewives.html
  • #530
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:55pm Apr 14, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting ettrader
This report might make you wary about going short in the buying frenzy on AUD although it's referring to AUDJPY it tends to drive the other AUD pairs including AUDUSD. Reckons around 100,000 Japanese housewives are trading the pair
http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/ns...ousewives.html
I went long the USD cross rather than the JPY cross because I pay less interest in USD than JPY. Granted, it's only .033% but that adds up when you're trading a decent number of lots. I figure I'm getting ~3.7% on the carry trade side of this long; at 10:1 leverage, that's ~37% interest per year.
That allows me to trade around a core position, buying the dips and selling the rips. But always holding a minimum of 6:1 ratio in a core position.
  • #531
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:17pm Apr 14, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Well, it's Wend., triple intrest day. These are the times that try shorts souls. I may close on any weakness, dodge the intrest charge, and re-short at a higher level. Tricky, I know. I just hate getting into long mult-day/multi-week short postions on this pair. The swap is a killer. Good trades to all.

Regards,
Petra, I just called my broker, InteractiveBrokers, and I was told that interest doesn't start or end accruing until after settlement, which is T+2. I bought AUD on Monday and have not yet received any interest. If you had wanted to miss triple interest Wednesday, you needed to sell on Friday and reopen your short on Sunday or Monday.
I would imagine that triple interest Wed and T+2 for settlement are pretty universal.

You might want to check into it, as this would significantly alter your strategy (ie closing out negative carry shorts prior to the Friday close).
  • #532
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:19pm Apr 14, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
I went long the USD cross rather than the JPY cross because I pay less interest in USD than JPY. Granted, it's only .033% but that adds up when you're trading a decent number of lots. I figure I'm getting ~3.7% on the carry trade side of this long; at 10:1 leverage, that's ~37% interest per year.
That allows me to trade around a core position, buying the dips and selling the rips. But always holding a minimum of 6:1 ratio in a core position.
Well you've got the support of the Australian central bank on your trade They want this pair to blow its nut off
  • #533
  • Apr 14, 2011 5:29pm Apr 14, 2011 5:29pm
Quoting ettrader
Well you've got the support of the Australian central bank on your trade They want this pair to blow its nut off
I hadn't looked at doing a carry trade until now but once I crunched the numbers, the case was compelling. The AUDUSD can stay flat and I'm still pulling down enough in interest daily to live on. Heck, it's more than my military retirement check.

I was trading the EURUSD exclusively for quite a while since it's the #1 traded cross. I got lucky in that my father-in-law was visiting last month as Japan and the Middle East blew up. Because he was visiting, I was on the sidelines. I fully expected to see a flight to the USD; the standard flight to safety play. But it didn't happen. Instead, I've watched the USD sink against all currencies except the JPY. I consider that to be telling. The USD is losing its reserve currency status as central banks decrease their USD holdings. I see this trend continuing for quite a while.
I opted to go long the AUD due to the high interest rate paid. My two concerns with the AUD are Chinese demand for raw materials and the Aussie housing bubble. I'll watch both closely but I wouldn't be surprised to see the AUD continue climbing higher against the USD after a consolidation pause at these levels.
  • #534
  • Edited 7:54pm Apr 14, 2011 6:00pm | Edited 7:54pm
This is what I see....im looking for 98, but I think 95 will appear
Attachment
  • #535
  • Apr 14, 2011 6:16pm Apr 14, 2011 6:16pm
A lot of carry trades in this pair with any excuse to hold on ... All we need is a reason for the long term, large account, carry traders to take profit and we can ride this one down to 1.02xx in a couple days easily. Just waiting with my trigger finger ready.

Wonder what China news will do tonight to the pair {yes even though some of their news was already leaked.}
  • #536
  • Apr 14, 2011 7:44pm Apr 14, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting forexcompoun
Hi bro,
let not your heart be troubled. I came to this thread this week to be a blessing to everyone here. Please try to just follow my trade call even though it is with very very little money.

Truth be told, WE ARE DONE WITH AUDUSD FOR THIS WEEK this entry is ALL we needed to await all week long and we just made it! Now is the time to relax and watch your trade journey towards the TP we set.
Happy trading!
Meshach.
You have called it well my friend although it hasnt reached your objective.. (yet)
I should have listen instead of the restless nights..
Happy Hunting..
  • #537
  • Apr 14, 2011 7:45pm Apr 14, 2011 7:45pm
Quoting needpips
...im looking for 98, but I think 95 will appear
That was very poorly written and your chart doesn't show anything.
???? What does this mean? You're looking for 1.0698? You're looking for 1.0598? What? ??????

Quoting Micro-Troll
A lot of carry trades in this pair with any excuse to hold on ... All we need is a reason for the long term, large account, carry traders to take profit and we can ride this one down to 1.02xx in a couple days easily. Just waiting with my trigger finger ready.

Wonder what China news will do tonight to the pair {yes even though some of their news was already leaked.}
What are you expecting to trigger profit taking? The leaked Chinese data ain't gonna do it.
  • #538
  • Apr 14, 2011 7:50pm Apr 14, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
That was very poorly written and your chart doesn't show anything.
???? What does this mean? You're looking for 1.0698? You're looking for 1.0598? What? ??????



What are you expecting to trigger profit taking? The leaked Chinese data ain't gonna do it.

what was poorly written? I said 98, but it could go to 95.....(if I would have meant 1.0698 Ida wrote that) Hope this clarifies

Trigger....the top TL in my chart (very top) is from 1994....I bet we see a retrace before that breaches.....also....S&P is at a 78.6% retrace.....AU tracks with SPX
  • #539
  • Apr 14, 2011 8:56pm Apr 14, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Petra, I just called my broker, InteractiveBrokers, and I was told that interest doesn't start or end accruing until after settlement, which is T+2. I bought AUD on Monday and have not yet received any interest. If you had wanted to miss triple interest Wednesday, you needed to sell on Friday and reopen your short on Sunday or Monday.
I would imagine that triple interest Wed and T+2 for settlement are pretty universal.

You might want to check into it, as this would significantly alter your strategy (ie closing out negative carry shorts prior to...
Your post is a little confusing. Intrest is paid or deducted on postions at exactly NY close of 5pm est. You can buy just before 5pm, and sell @5:01 and get the credit (or debit). I have had 6 different brokers over the years and the procedure has always been the same. Never heard of what you are talking about. My intrest trade from yesterday worked out fine.

Regards,
  • #540
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:06pm Apr 14, 2011 9:06pm
Quoting needpips
what was poorly written? I said 98, but it could go to 95.....(if I would have meant 1.0698 Ida wrote that) Hope this clarifies

Trigger....the top TL in my chart (very top) is from 1994....I bet we see a retrace before that breaches.....also....S&P is at a 78.6% retrace.....AU tracks with SPX
What's 98? 98 what? Are you saying $98.0000 or $0.9800; nothing's clear from looking at the nondescript chart you posted.

Decimal points, please. I responded because it wasn't clear, yet you simply wrote 98 AGAIN. You didn't even make an attempt to clarify.
Is it really that hard to fill in all the digits and put a decimal point in your post? The funny is that it would have been faster to add the 3 digits and a decimal point than the response you wrote.
I've got a good idea of what you're trying to imply but when I'm asked that kind of question, I make sure that I clarify my post rather than writing a post that rambles on but doesn't clarify anything. Please have the courtesy to do the same.

My guess is that you've called 'the top' on the AUDUSD and S&P. Good luck; I've never seen anyone who can pick them reliably.
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