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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,581
  • Apr 13, 2011 1:05pm Apr 13, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hey pres thanks for the guidance, you seem to have it nailed. Can I ask is there any other reading materials/ resources you have found helpful for vsa other than this thread and master the markets?

It would be great if I could grasp the charts as well as you do.

Many thanks
That's all I have personally read... MTM and this thread.

I have not read it but I have seen a few people recommend Tom's otehr book "Undeclared Secrets that Drive the Stock Market"...

It really just comes down to screen time and keep posting your charts... I have learned as much from posting my charts as I have from seeing others.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,582
  • Edited 1:32pm Apr 13, 2011 1:10pm | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
btw gary fullet is on pfgbest webinar today on upthrust and springs. just about to start.
Thanks for the earlier post on this ... in it now. Seems a little basic so far ... BTW, didn't realize they were selling anything - what the heck is TriggerPoint software?

EDIT: Found it ... ugghhh, $99 a month? I'm an opinionated guy, but one gets incredibly more with TradeGuider, not to mention there are freebie implementations that many fine folks on this forum have created that do similar, as does the VPA line of indicators available for NinjaTrader, Thinkorswim, AmiBroker and others. I think if one does an objective review, their software is quite Mickey Mouseish.

EDIT 2: Did a quick side-by-side screencap - their $99 SW on the left, free VPA Ninja indi on the right. (I'm testing NinjaTrader right now)
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  • #18,583
  • Apr 13, 2011 1:43pm Apr 13, 2011 1:43pm
5 min EU has moved much more clearly after NY open today. Very choppy between LO and NY open.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,584
  • Apr 13, 2011 1:45pm Apr 13, 2011 1:45pm
Hello Friends: As part of my post mortem analysis of yesterday's entirely wrong trade entry into a quickly unprofitable USDCAD short, I realized that one of the reasons why I have been avoiding using a trade entry check list is that I prefer to trade by the seat of my pants so I can lose money so I can then have a reason to feel sorry for myself. Gosh, I should at least go get my money and put it in my Bar-B-Q grill, squirt lighter fuel on it, and then burn it to roast some marshmellows. That way at least I'll get some value from it. But instead I'm going to start using a check list prior to opening a new trade to help ensure I'm operating according to VSA principles. Part of being a disciplined trader is operating according to rules that are instilled as habits in one's mind. Checklists help people do things and trade right. The first draft of my check list is below. I'd be appreciative of any ideas to include so as to maximize the probability of profitable trades subsequent to opening a trade that complies.
**********************************

Trade Open Transaction Checklist
Date________________ Time______________ Instrument_____________
□ Minimum 3 to 1 Reward to Risk Probable
Time Frame________ □ Trend Up; □ Trend Down; □ Multi-TF Reviewed
Higher TF Background: □ Strength, □ Weakness
Most Recent Dominant Influence________________________________
□ Three Bullish Indications Needed for Long if Strength in Background
□ Effort to Move Down
□ Selling Climax
□ Stopping Volume Bars with Long Lower Wicks/Legs
□ Squat Up Bar with Absorption Volume
□ Shake Out or Reverse Up Thrust
□ Successful Test in Rising Market or Hidden Tests
□ No Supply After SOS
□ Low Selling Pressure on Wide Spread Down Bar
□ Zoom Up Through Springboard (Jump Across Creek)



□ Three Bearish Indications Needed for Short if Weakness in Background
□ Effort to Move Up
□ Buying Climax
□ Stopping Volume Bars with Long Upper Wicks/Legs
□ Squat Down Bar with Absorption Volume
□ Up Thrusts or Hidden Up Thrusts
□ No Demand After SOW
□ Low Buying Pressure on Wide Spread Up Bar
□ Zoom Down Through Springboard (Fall Through the ICE)



Lot Size___________, Entry Price_____________, Stop Loss____________
Take Profit #1____________, Take Profit #2______________
□ Chart Attached, □ Journal Entry, □ Not A Common Trade Mistake
Comments:____________________________________________________________






  • #18,585
  • Apr 13, 2011 1:56pm Apr 13, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting Beljevina
Now, let's see if a prev low at 44203 holds - beyond that POC and psyche number 4402 is next.
Interesting that we bounced off the prev low of 442 (although dipped to 44126) BUT check the volume there - it is huge for the time of day; so that's a combo of sell stops but also it getting bought up. Still thinking POC 1.4402 has to be tested. Interesting though the comments coming out of Europe officials lately - almost seems like a coordinated pooh-pooh campaign on the euro.

Am just posting a NinjaTrader VPA indi chart - has much aid potential for learning VSA (it's a VPA indi that's on it). Not that crazy about NT.
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  • #18,586
  • Apr 13, 2011 2:49pm Apr 13, 2011 2:49pm
I have been watching through my charts and noticed that eur/usd is in the important zone.

Starting from daily, area between 1.4450-1.4500 served as a nice support/resistance in the past, so we may expect some bounce from here, at least a minor correction. (I like to draw support/ resistance line using line chart, which represents closes). When it comes to VSA and daily chart, I must say I'm a bit confused. Monday definitely printed NS (bullish) and tuesday narrow range climatic up bar (bearish) closing in the area of NS. Probably we will play for a while within this outside bar before market chooses direction. Whatever it will be, it will be good.

From hourly chart perspective we are testing now short term trend line. Downward move today wasn't very massive and healthy IMO. Judging by volume bears didn't show special interest to play (distribution hasn't been finished yet?). Right before hammer (20 GMT), a nice NS was printed (very low volume, very tight range). 1.4450 would be my trigger line for tomorrow, above it I will remain bullish and expecting market to test 1.4500. Below it (it will coincide with breaking TL) I will try to sell NDs and tests from 15/5 min chart.

Whatever scenario market will chose I will be there, ready to milk it

Good luck everybody
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Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #18,587
  • Apr 13, 2011 4:28pm Apr 13, 2011 4:28pm
EU daily has printed as a NS on my charts. Break of today's daily high at 4518 and I will look for as high as 4650-4700 by the end of the week.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,588
  • Apr 13, 2011 6:15pm Apr 13, 2011 6:15pm
Quoting pres78
EU daily has printed as a NS on my charts. Break of today's daily high at 4518 and I will look for as high as 4650-4700 by the end of the week.
You took the thought right out of my head. Different sites are posting Barrier options above 4550 as well so that will add fuel to the fire if we get more upside momentum.

On a completely off topic note; My dog slept for 6 hours straight today beside my desk without moving. If never seen anything like it before and thought he was dead 3 times. It actually took my mind off trading this crap session and probably saved me some money. lol
  • #18,589
  • Apr 13, 2011 6:19pm Apr 13, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
You took the thought right out of my head. Different sites are posting Barrier options above 4550 as well so that will add fuel to the fire if we get more upside momentum.

On a completely off topic note; My dog slept for 6 hours straight today beside my desk without moving. If never seen anything like it before and thought he was dead 3 times. It actually took my mind off trading this crap session and probably saved me some money. lol
Well at least your dog is OK and your account still full... EU after NY open really wasn't all bad. GU well that was just a huge steaming pile of something your dog didn't do much of today obviously ...

Even oil was crap to trade and EJ has blown off over 100 pips in the first few hours of the trading day the last day or two not leaving much to trade after. Caught a short on EU for a few pips but that is all I did today trading wise.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,590
  • Edited 8:10pm Apr 13, 2011 7:38pm | Edited 8:10pm
"Checklists help people do things and trade right. The first draft of my check list is below. I'd be appreciative of any ideas to include so as to maximize the probability of profitable trades subsequent to opening a trade that complies."

What I have found helpful is writing down the ACTUAL number of the SOS or SOW... for example when I see XX followed by YY I know to really pay attention. I have seen number patterns that come up, repeatedly. Good Job on your check list. Definitely will use some of your ideas!
  • #18,591
  • Apr 14, 2011 12:01am Apr 14, 2011 12:01am
Quoting pres78
EU daily has printed as a NS on my charts. Break of today's daily high at 4518 and I will look for as high as 4650-4700 by the end of the week.
h1 chart trigger is broken. We should see 1.45 broken through LO and maybe through UO
  • #18,592
  • Apr 14, 2011 1:23am Apr 14, 2011 1:23am
Hi,

I don't understand the principle of an effort to rise. If a bar is breaking out of a trading range, lets say upwards, what to we have to see so that that bar is confirmed. It is written that if the next bar is an up bar, then the move is likely to continue. But it is also written that if it is a test, then the up move is also confirmed.

What is the exact rule to read and confirm an effort to rise?

I've put an example in attachement. The 3rd bar after the vertical line is breaking out of the trading range. The next bar is an up bar with about the same volume and closing at the high. But then there is a no-demand bar. But if we go short we are dead.

What exactly corresponds to an effort to rise, but reversed as on this chart? Can we have efforts to fall?
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  • #18,593
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:21am Apr 14, 2011 2:21am
Hi,
Looking at the last two H8 candles, would we regard them as reversals?

Best,
Ox
  • #18,594
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:41am Apr 14, 2011 2:41am
My cat is sleeping way more than usual. Radiation from Japan?
  • #18,595
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:59am Apr 14, 2011 2:59am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

I don't understand the principle of an effort to rise. If a bar is breaking out of a trading range, lets say upwards, what to we have to see so that that bar is confirmed. It is written that if the next bar is an up bar, then the move is likely to continue. But it is also written that if it is a test, then the up move is also confirmed.

What is the exact rule to read and confirm an effort to rise?

I've put an example in attachement. The 3rd bar after the vertical line is breaking out of the trading range. The next bar is an up bar with...
Hi dvarrin,

maybe the experts can comment better on " effort to rise/fall ", here are some points I see on your chart. But this is my layman`s interpretation, still learning.

@rbumbalough, thank you for the checklist, at the moment I have nothing to add - maybe differentiate more between trades under 1h TF and trades based on market structure higher TF charts such as Malcoms`s 12h/8h.


____________
michael
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Be like water.
  • #18,596
  • Edited 3:38am Apr 14, 2011 3:24am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting msmarple
Hi dvarrin,

maybe the experts can comment better on " effort to rise/fall ", here are some points I see on your chart. But this is my layman`s interpretation, still learning.

@rbumbalough, thank you for the checklist, at the moment I have nothing to add - maybe differentiate more between trades under 1h TF and trades based on market structure higher TF charts such as Malcoms`s 12h/8h.


____________
michael
Thank you very much for your chart msmarple.

There are some things I don't fully understand. You write that volume is increasing and the the same time the price is making lower down bars. Is not that an indication that the price may go lower?

And about the entry bar, shouldn't it be a down bar to be a test?

Why am I always reading the signals to be in the other direction? For example if there is increasing volume on down bars, but it is a continuation of the downtrend. why suddenly is it reversing? I don't understand anything!
  • #18,597
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:25am Apr 14, 2011 3:25am
Quoting pres78
EU daily has printed as a NS on my charts. Break of today's daily high at 4518 and I will look for as high as 4650-4700 by the end of the week.
hmmm, that is really probable scenario. We have plenty of room up, when to comes to weekly range. The only thing that is suspicious here is that whole move up to test 1.4500 happened in Tokio session.
I really don't like when all the daily range is wiped out before LO.

I would like to compare our daily charts, could you please attach yours?
On mine wednesday doesn't look like NS as volume is well above average.

Thanks,
Chris
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Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #18,598
  • Apr 14, 2011 4:21am Apr 14, 2011 4:21am


London has been a bit crap the last two days.
  • #18,599
  • Apr 14, 2011 4:29am Apr 14, 2011 4:29am
Quoting KinsaleForex


London has been a bit crap the last two days.
seriously. lo let asia open take all the bull steam. i will just let my long position from the days low ride to my target. ill let it sl @ be. with us open, there could be a surprise, and I am going to opt my charts over the news forecast. risky, but i could not resist the great price at the low.
  • #18,600
  • Apr 14, 2011 4:50am Apr 14, 2011 4:50am
Quoting Baniu
hmmm, that is really probable scenario. We have plenty of room up, when to comes to weekly range. The only thing that is suspicious here is that whole move up to test 1.4500 happened in Tokio session.
I really don't like when all the daily range is wiped out before LO.

I would like to compare our daily charts, could you please attach yours?
On mine wednesday doesn't look like NS as volume is well above average.

Thanks,
Chris
Nope but yours was a squat showing that all sellers were met with buyers and it closed of it's lows. Still a possible bullish sign.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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