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How to survive in forex? Help please!

  • #81
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:53am Apr 12, 2011 1:53am
Quoting the redlion
thanks for the advice but i belive youre wrong

ure just regurgitating the perpetual myth of forex.

STOP LOSS are dangerous i would ask you to reconsider your approach
When you have blown your acount
just remember you have been warned,
I suggest you learn risk manegment,
without it, Im sorry to say you are not likely to last long.

anyway good luck with your trading
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #82
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:56am Apr 12, 2011 1:56am
Quoting the redlion
thanks for the advice but i belive youre wrong

ure just regurgitating the perpetual myth of forex.

STOP LOSS are dangerous i would ask you to reconsider your approach
I don't think it is a myth, it is a reasonable risk limitation. Like when somebody invests in a new project. He will already know beforehand when he will cut his losses (not invest anymore) - that is the stop loss in the real economy.

If you invest in failing projects and don't know when to stop, then soon there is no money left.
  • #83
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:55am Apr 12, 2011 2:55am
Quoting Custos
I don't think it is a myth, it is a reasonable risk limitation. Like when somebody invests in a new project. He will already know beforehand when he will cut his losses (not invest anymore) - that is the stop loss in the real economy.

If you invest in failing projects and don't know when to stop, then soon there is no money left.

my risk management is the wave of attacks

minimal initial, no stop loss. look and feel the rhythm of the market, using fundamental analysis gdp, CB anouncements, interest rates, usdx etc i find direction.

if price moves against i will rescue by averaging down
if im in the oposite side of the trend i will hedge by correlating pair

i maintain my position, but when not mangaged or overnight i limit my exposure by only leaving my scout position.

in other words i snowball my way in
and i fight for every pip, NEVER to close a trade in red.

when i used to use stop losses i was very much exposed to volatitly and i would get stoped out.

that is MY risk management, learned from a great trader FTI
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #84
  • Apr 12, 2011 7:40am Apr 12, 2011 7:40am
everyone to their own I suppose - ultimately successful trading is all about consistent profits over the long term - and based on the wise words of wisdom from the pro's on these forums, I gather that if something is working for you and you have a long enough track record, stick to it....
  • #85
  • Apr 13, 2011 2:08am Apr 13, 2011 2:08am
Quoting the redlion
my risk management is the wave of attacks

minimal initial, no stop loss. look and feel the rhythm of the market, using fundamental analysis gdp, CB anouncements, interest rates, usdx etc i find direction.

if price moves against i will rescue by averaging down
if im in the oposite side of the trend i will hedge by correlating pair

i maintain my position, but when not mangaged or overnight i limit my exposure by only leaving my scout position.

in other words i snowball my way in
and i fight for every pip, NEVER to close a trade in red.

when i...
Im not saying it can't be done,
Im just saying it's very risky,
specially if you are trading it manually,
you think little out of the box and thats good,
but you need to find confirmation that it really is working,
one way would be to make a EA out of this
that would allow you to back test it,
then you know for sure if it's good or bad.
you should know that there are Forex robots operating a simular way you are describing,
and people lost a lot of money using it,
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #86
  • Apr 13, 2011 6:01pm Apr 13, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting roughtrader
Im not saying it can't be done,
Im just saying it's very risky,
specially if you are trading it manually,
you think little out of the box and thats good,
but you need to find confirmation that it really is working,
one way would be to make a EA out of this
that would allow you to back test it,
then you know for sure if it's good or bad.
you should know that there are Forex robots operating a simular way you are describing,
and people lost a lot of money using it,

cant be done using a robot. and it cant be done systematically, it takes patience. feeling the rhythm of the market. reading fundamental analysis news. being aware of Central Bank statements.
correlating pairs. using the dollar index.

and as of technical goes. it takes looking at price movement, taking the punches, and counter attacking in due timing. minimizing exposures when the price is not acting right.

back testing and robots cant do this.


trading is an art not a sience, no indicators no fractals or hocus pocus fib ratios, or calculating complicated algorithms. the market is full of different components.

1 the top dog is the FED, until the dollar stops being the reserve currency all the majors are traded in dollars and most of the transactions some way or another involve the USD.

hedge funds, the overall economy of the country, consumers, investors, even turist changing their pesos for USD is a forex transactions.
when investors are risk averse it affects the markets, when their risk appetite goes up it affects the markets.
the Central Banks intervene, and their policies rule the market. forex is not about supply and demand and traders moving prices.

i assure you if the FED wanted to strengthen the USD they would intervene and regulate till they got what they wanted. example is in the strengthening of the yen and how the g7 at request of japain interevened to weaken it.

look out for the CBs, and technical analysis is the foot print of price and price movement.

feeling the rythm, and trouble shooting is the only way to win.

knowing about all the other studies help, but they are just tools, pick the best tool for given market structure and condition. the number one thing i want to know when trading is

WHERE IS THE USD going. going with the USD, makes it hard to be on the wrong side of the trade.

open all the majors and eye ball it. or calculate Rate of change of correlating pairs and movement of price. comoditiy prices, oil, gold especially. (they call them petro dollars for a reason)

interest rates, the stock market close.

if you look you will see

thats all i have to say.

thats how you survive this market.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #87
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:06am Apr 14, 2011 3:06am
Good luck to you, and please keep us posted of your results
it would be interesting to see how you are doing
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #88
  • Apr 14, 2011 5:23am Apr 14, 2011 5:23am
I concur with roughtrader – good luck to you and do post your results, it would be definitely interesting to monitor your progress – I post my results on these forums daily and when I receive the occasional feedback, most of the time, it helps me....
  • #89
  • Apr 16, 2011 12:08pm Apr 16, 2011 12:08pm
It can be done using a robot, but there are certain elements that require you know what you're doing and know when the robot needs your help. robots need maintenance because the markets change the robot has to change with them. So there is a need to continually adjust a robot. It's only as smart as the code it runs.

You can't beat what a robot can do... and the number one thing is "NO SLEEP" not to mention the speed at which a robot performs.
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  • #90
  • Apr 16, 2011 6:54pm Apr 16, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting the redlion
cant be done using a robot. and it cant be done systematically, it takes patience. feeling the rhythm of the market. reading fundamental analysis news. being aware of Central Bank statements.
correlating pairs. using the dollar index.

and as of technical goes. it takes looking at price movement, taking the punches, and counter attacking in due timing. minimizing exposures when the price is not acting right.

back testing and robots cant do this.

/snip
I am right with you on this style of trading. There is definitely a flow to it you can capture. This 'system' needs to be flexible and not really bound by the concern of following too many rules, aside from knowing when the trend has changed, and it's time to reduce positions or get out.

But at the heart of it all is knowing the bigger picture, what the CB's have in plan for the USD. When QE will end and when the whole currency system will be revamped, because that will be in the pipe in the next 2 years. Until then, the plan now is the intentional continued devaluation of the dollar, and liquidity injections. So risk is on. Gold, silver, oil and the markets have yet to peak. Knowing that will keep me in the trend. But it's coming to an end relatively soon, that is for sure.
  • #91
  • Apr 17, 2011 6:17am Apr 17, 2011 6:17am
when Forex sux take Enditol LOL

kidding despite what some people will tell you,
there is no shortcuts in the forex or any market,
if it was we would all be rich,
currency is probably the hardest instrument to trade because
price depends on so many factors in comparrision
to other instrument avalible, it is a very unpredictable market,
with that said, Forex is very tough to start with as a beginner,
it is easyer to trade stocks or CFD's on stocks or options or futures,
it's a lot easyer to trade for example a CFD or a option on a company that
for example makes clothing, if cotton goes up, well, then you can predict with
more certanty that it might be a good time to go short,
because the price will decline 98% of the time.
with companys like that, there isn't so many factors affecting the price.
in the Forex you have to know hundreds of different things,
you probably need to know all the fundamentals and TA very good.
plus years of experience.
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
  • #92
  • Apr 17, 2011 7:53am Apr 17, 2011 7:53am
Money managment is the key!!!!

Forex is highly leverage game....live or death
  • #93
  • Apr 17, 2011 8:04am Apr 17, 2011 8:04am
investors 10 -15% per year
Professional fund managers 3% -19% per year

Good day traders 50% - 100% per month

But you need an edge

Never risk more than 5% on a trade
get 2/3 to 1 risk reward..this helps with pressure.

That way I can risk 5% and get 15% on my TP

Trade with the current trend what ever your time frame..dont look at the 60min trend if trading the 5min chart

1min trade 1min trend but small of all TP time frames..dont try to get 30 pips from a 1min chart

I use 5min TP are usually 20-50 pips risk is always 5%
My SL always always 1 pip above or below last swing hi or lo

Take the best signals and use pivots ..all professionals use pivots..the more their used the more effective they become

Dont have more than 2 indicators on your chart and dont clutter your chart with pretty colours and rubbish were trading not creating works of art

keep all un necessary info off your chart you dont need to know what time it is all round the world

you dont need useless multy time frame colour blocks showng you the current trend in 1min 5min 15min 30min 60min daily weekly monthly or years
time frames

You dont need to know what the trend is doing on the 1hour if your trading the 5min..totally irrelavent

Write down your rules

If you take a trade and set your TP and SL walk away come back every 5 or 10 mins to start with..get comfortable not watching your trade.

Once you take a trade you CANNOT INFLUENCE the market in any way shape or form..it hits your TP or your SL...thats it ..... leave the trade alone...you have stacked the odds in your favour when you took the trade...dont meddle dont second guess...dont end up taking 5 pips when you have suffered 30 pips draw down...that is not a successful trade...thats a lucky get out

Try to stay relaxed and keep to your trading system

You will make money


P
  • #94
  • Apr 18, 2011 3:57am Apr 18, 2011 3:57am
Quoting Paulus
investors 10 -15% per year
Professional fund managers 3% -19% per year

Good day traders 50% - 100% per month

But you need an edge

Never risk more than 5% on a trade
get 2/3 to 1 risk reward..this helps with pressure.

That way I can risk 5% and get 15% on my TP

Trade with the current trend what ever your time frame..dont look at the 60min trend if trading the 5min chart

1min trade 1min trend but small of all TP time frames..dont try to get 30 pips from a 1min chart

I use 5min TP are usually 20-50 pips risk is always 5%
My SL always...
...........and you will be feeeeeeling good, da dum, da dum, da dum, da da da da dum...........
  • #95
  • Apr 18, 2011 4:32am Apr 18, 2011 4:32am
Quoting Paulus
Good day traders 50% - 100% per month

But you need an edge
I really would love to hear your edge. A compounded return of 50% a month gives you 12,875% over a year and a compounded return of 100% a month gives you 409,500% over a year.

As I wrote on many other threads, this seems impossible to me. I have never encountered a guy who could prove that he can pull this off consistently. But if you make such returns a year, then I apologize beforehand, cause then after two years of the conservative 50% a month you will be a multi-millionair, and after 3 years a billionaire, if you started with $1.000. And I have respect for all the billionaires out there!

People would already die for 50% a year.
  • #96
  • Apr 18, 2011 12:26pm Apr 18, 2011 12:26pm
Look at this link my trades are posted here with why its done

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1887


42% return today

50% odd return on Friday

5% is acceptable per day over 20 days 100%

its doesnt take long but you need a good risk return and a system with an edge

A willing to walk away and let the SL and TP take control and not to interfere with pre trade technical analysis convincing yourself your in a bad trade

Please dont post any questions regarding my performance on the thread as its not mine..but id be happy to talk to you here

P
  • #97
  • Apr 18, 2011 1:43pm Apr 18, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting Paulus
Look at this link my trades are posted here with why its done

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1887


42% return today

50% odd return on Friday

5% is acceptable per day over 20 days 100%

its doesnt take long but you need a good risk return and a system with an edge

A willing to walk away and let the SL and TP take control and not to interfere with pre trade technical analysis convincing yourself your in a bad trade

Please dont post any questions regarding my performance on the thread as its not...
Great work Paulus, I vouched for you after reading loads of your posts and threads, if I could I would again.

Inspirational stuff mate, trading is hard enough to crack (it was for me at least), novices need to be reminded that hard work will pay off.
  • #98
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:30am Apr 20, 2011 10:30am
I opened a real account with $1800 2 weeks ago. I was trading large 1 lot with the EURUSD. Using 1 lot with only $1800 is foolish and I was up or down several hundred dollars per day. I went long on the 13th and it dropped like a rock and after looking at the potential downside sold for a loss leaving me only $425 in my account. It dropped even further after selling and after seeeing an uptrend with the 4 hr chart I went long in at .25 lots at 1.43230 and am sitting there now waiting for the breakout above the 1.45250 range it has been trading at. I am currently around $875 in equity and figure break even even is just above 1.48.

I obviously need to adjust my trading practices. But I was wondering since I am up 1700 pips, should I just keep in long. Since there is such a long term uptrend on the chart, I am leary about shorting anything. Anyone have any ideas? Thanks to all.
  • #99
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:34am Apr 20, 2011 11:34am
Quoting ThorsHammer
I opened a real account with $1800 2 weeks ago....
Wow alot of things to cover there..

1st

$1800 x 5% max risk per trade = $90
Thats your pain threshold and stop
1 lot on EURUSD is $10 per pip...therefore your SL should of been 9 pips
1 min lot same 5% risk your stop loss will be 90 pips
1 micro lot same risk your stop loss will be 900 pips

On the above 3 trades your loss will be $90
On 2:1 risk reward you gain to win 2 x $90 = $180

Thats a good trade risk $90 get $180

The secrete of building an account is to risk 5% max
Get at least 1;1 to 4:1 risk return
Using a system that stakes the odds 51% in your favour

What you are doing is not trading its praying and your stomach lining wont take it.

My advice tighten your stop close in profit at possible
Set out a proper MM plan and stick to it


Question I take it you traded on the daily chart on the 13th why did you go long...ok it was up trending but buy into an up trend on a pull back

far tighter stop and safer

P
  • #100
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:45pm Apr 20, 2011 12:45pm
Practice accounts are nothing like real ones because there's no real money being gained or loss. I wasn't ready for the stress from doing stupid things. I was looking at the long term uptrend and was treating it like a stock. Put your money in and watch the chart go up. LOL The swings in Forex can be absolutely brutal when you use most of your account.

I'm not sure I had all the terms right, but I was losing or gaining 1 dollar per pip. 1 lot at 1.44935 was $1449 of the $1800. I prefer longer trends as you don't have to worry about the bumps. I do agree that I have to drastically cut back on what I have in play but I do have a lot of catching up to do.

I have experienced several times when you place an order it is returned and says "off quote" due to the price changing so quickly. How can you place limit orders on it when it is moving so quickly? You may not get in on it. I'm guessing that this is not the time to get in and to avoid the herd mentality. You should have been in when your target was reached.

I did have a couple of sleepless nights but I guess you can read the forums til you're blue in the face and it isn't real until you actually experience it. There are tons of videos on youtube showing how easy it is to make money with Forex. I wished I would have had a 1700 pip run up with my $1800, I would have been a happy camper. As it is I'll be happy to be back to my initial amount in a month or two.
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