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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,441
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:25pm Apr 11, 2011 2:25pm
euro 30 min been getting hit with supply in the 1.4450 area .. of course i enterd 1.4435 sell with stop 1.4460 and the b****h poped to 1.4465.

Back in 1.4430 , target not massive ... 1,4350 area

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 240.jpg Size: 135 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,442
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:27pm Apr 11, 2011 2:27pm
Not a pair i ioften trade but todays daily got my interest.

watch the 7760 area for a break below and a no demand test... could be a nice little 100 pip trade in next 2 days
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,443
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:33pm Apr 11, 2011 2:33pm
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  • #18,444
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:43pm Apr 11, 2011 2:43pm
Quoting malcolmb14
euro 30 min been getting hit with supply in the 1.4450 area .. of course i enterd 1.4435 sell with stop 1.4460 and the b****h poped to 1.4465.

Back in 1.4430 , target not massive ... 1,4350 area

Attachment
Hi Mal: I hope you and yours are all well. You're advice to me to always trade with the trend hit home and I made it a hard and fast rule in my speculation business plan. The attached chart shows the fib retracements and extension prices. If the current reaction is commiserate to the prior three, then there should be a high probability of success pull back buy entry at the 50% back of the most recent swing high that also is approximately 100% of the amount of prior reactions. (This isn't VSA related, but like trend lines, fibs do appear to work although there is no objective reason why they should.) So I'm anticipating a buy opportunity at 1.4375-4365 ~ish revealed by a low tick activity no supply or narrow spread test bar. Euro money market rates are headed nowhere but up taking euro rates and libor with it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_4h_4-11-11_fibs.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #18,445
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:59pm Apr 11, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Not a pair i ioften trade but todays daily got my interest.

watch the 7760 area for a break below and a no demand test... could be a nice little 100 pip trade in next 2 days
Hey malc,

7760, is this the 4hr trigger level?

Thanks
  • #18,446
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:14pm Apr 11, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Back in 1.4430 , target not massive ... 1,4350 area
Hi malc , looking through my amateurish glasses I see the vwap and the daily pivot holding for the moment , and the DAILY VOLUME (with 2 hours to go..) being very low giving us a NS daily bar (please correct me if Im wrong) .... so Im thinking - most likly long for tomorrow...

Do you see the eurusd barish for the coming days ?

(I still rather go with what you see, then what I see - but I hope to change that soon...)
  • #18,447
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:47pm Apr 11, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting malcolmb14
euro 30 min been getting hit with supply in the 1.4450 area .. of course i enterd 1.4435 sell with stop 1.4460 and the b****h poped to 1.4465.

Back in 1.4430 , target not massive ... 1,4350 area

Attachment
imho risky:

Attached Image
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #18,448
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:51pm Apr 11, 2011 3:51pm
Hi Malcomb,
thank you for your analysis of ES!

Once ES will reach 1300 don't you think it will keep on falling down?
May be we have already had our year max...

Do you think istead that at 1300 it will be the moment to buy ES?
Thanks for your time!
Marc


Quoting malcolmb14
I think there may be some testing of that 1300 area in the 1st 2 trading sessions of the week.

Seems like no buying interest monday of last week , some definite selling coming in Thursday (reaction seen Friday) and now a test of that 1324 area.
Attachment
  • #18,449
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:08pm Apr 11, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting marcb
Hi Malcomb,
thank you for your analysis of ES!

Once ES will reach 1300 don't you think it will keep on falling down?
May be we have already had our year max...

Do you think istead that at 1300 it will be the moment to buy ES?
Thanks for your time!
Marc
I'm not Malc, but I would guess the chart and the volume background of the chart will answer the question IF the ES get to that level it is suggested that it MIGHT get to.
  • #18,450
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:52pm Apr 11, 2011 8:52pm
Over the weekend, I looked over background, which I have been really focusing on lately. It has done me well, so I have been applying my original trading ways with volume spread analysis lately, and of course reading some great posts here.

I expected the gap this sunday to be above our friday closing so then it might play around from 1.4545 and test at 1.4485 area. Since that has failed, I thought that monday's day would at least bring us down a bit more towards 1.4360, but there seems to be very little supply for the shorts.

On the weekly as I predicted couple weeks ago, shows super strength and at least will continue, and it still does. The weekly went up half way on the trigger two years ago, so it still has steam to test upwards. Background strength is still showing superb annihilation on strength towards eur.

On the daily, it kicks off the week as bearish, and since monday's bar ended with only 70 pip range, I see at least a test at 1.4331 or as aggressive as 1.4260 area. Regardless, the weekly still shows strength because of the trigger that we stopped in between on, and we will be going up to test 1.4575 (which is also resistance + ns back in 2009 before hitting 1.47). I will be entering a some longs as we touch towards 1.43 area along and adding in if we get towards 1.42 area.

There are some selling, but definitely not enough demand to break the bulls. With this start of week, it is clear that we are seeing the bears having a very difficult time breaking through 1.4425 area. we are in the second day of the week, and even asia open is still struggling to crack below 1.44
  • #18,451
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:36pm Apr 11, 2011 9:36pm
1.444x lvl just cracked and moved to 1.44xx..
But the thing is as price move the vol also picking up..

I see it as the shake out for weak long..

Sonic
  • #18,452
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:44pm Apr 11, 2011 9:44pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
1.444x lvl just cracked and moved to 1.44xx..
But the thing is as price move the vol also picking up..

I see it as the shake out for weak long..

Sonic
Agreed, Also looking at mabye picking up a gu long below 1.63 for a swing hold.
  • #18,453
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:00pm Apr 11, 2011 11:00pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Agreed, Also looking at mabye picking up a gu long below 1.63 for a swing hold.
Caution should be exercised, as I don't think the down move is done - we basically had a nosedive rejection off 1.642, one of the strongest and most direct 150 pip down moves - GU does that every few weeks; if it fails 1.625 there's a chance it might head to the mid/upper 1.61 - this move down was for a reason, and the H1/H4 prints aren't encouraging IMO. I think the CPI news will clearly tell us where the next ~200 pips will be.
  • #18,454
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:47pm Apr 11, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting Beljevina
Caution should be exercised, as I don't think the down move is done - we basically had a nosedive rejection off 1.642, one of the strongest and most direct 150 pip down moves - GU does that every few weeks; if it fails 1.625 there's a chance it might head to the mid/upper 1.61 - this move down was for a reason, and the H1/H4 prints aren't encouraging IMO. I think the CPI news will clearly tell us where the next ~200 pips will be.
You are right and I am in agreement after watching price action for the last 30 min. Even though we have found some support at 6280 I'd like to see a test of 6250 now. The daily has printed a bearish bar and I think we may finally have some sort of retrace on the pound since the rally.
  • #18,455
  • Apr 12, 2011 12:34am Apr 12, 2011 12:34am
I think my 1,4350 will be hit just fine .. plenty of supply on the 30 min all of todays session .

With todays decline in oil .... got to love oil these days the usd seems to gaining some traction. I think 1.4350 will be tested ..almost got there in asian session , lets see what London brings.

as for today being a test day , we had only slightly lower than average volumes.

If you draw a channel we are in an uptrend, the lower quadrant is 4300 and the lower channel line 4200

I am not aiming for that low.

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Quoting USD-Bear
imho risky:

Attachment
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,456
  • Apr 12, 2011 12:40am Apr 12, 2011 12:40am
careful on this one .. check your 12 hour , in the last week there have been two nasty upthrusts off that 6400 area , today being on of them . I think 6200 is the 1st spot to look for longs , but 6100 more likely


Quoting Sonofsin5
You are right and I am in agreement after watching price action for the last 30 min. Even though we have found some support at 6280 I'd like to see a test of 6250 now. The daily has printed a bearish bar and I think we may finally have some sort of retrace on the pound since the rally.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,457
  • Apr 12, 2011 12:50am Apr 12, 2011 12:50am
maybe . I am still holding my sell off 1329 , was surprised to see today drop so hard . i am not even thinking this is a shake out. we may just drop thru 1300 unless somehow earnings boost the market.

very clear selling pressure thursday of last week on a 12 hour as noted in this chart .... 12 hour my new best friend and i find it easy to read for some reason .. obviously you have to filter out the low volume sessions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2011-04-11 at 10.49.39 PM.png Size: 430 KB





Quoting marcb
Hi Malcomb,
thank you for your analysis of ES!

Once ES will reach 1300 don't you think it will keep on falling down?
May be we have already had our year max...

Do you think istead that at 1300 it will be the moment to buy ES?
Thanks for your time!
Marc
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,458
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:10am Apr 12, 2011 1:10am
Good morning.
Here are the futures on 15 min.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,459
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:26am Apr 12, 2011 1:26am
Hi,

Anybody knows a MT4 broker that shows the bars correctly (no bar for Sunday) and with which we can use a proxy?

I hope you can help me ;-)
  • #18,460
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:57am Apr 12, 2011 3:57am
Big volume on GU. Watching here for possible reversal.
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