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  • #4,501
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:35pm Apr 11, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting Euroscum
Euroscum likes what he is seeing today, getting those nice red candels.


Finally, finally we are seeing something close to a natural market movement! I must confess that I was shorting gold (averaging, as usual) and started to get scared due to the lack of the smallest retracement. I was afraid we would reach 1500 without any $10 correction! Now I decided to close at BE and loaded some longs at 1460.

I don't care if silver goes to $50.00 or $1.50, but 7 daily green candles in a row... are simply pathetic! There is no new fundamental change in the market to explain such harsh movement upwards. The rally to $41.95 tonight was insulting. Now the chart doesn't look so indecent anymore.

So much for my "technical" analysis

By the way: nice call about the fork training, beeb! There are some problems with my internet connection here, so I will try the recorded session at my office, when my colleagues go home
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,502
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:40pm Apr 11, 2011 2:40pm
Interesting read...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...e-by-july.html
  • #4,503
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:48pm Apr 11, 2011 2:48pm
highlander, I was checking your blog and saw some interesting stuff, especially the daily pin bar issue.

A question: would you short silver tonight if we get a pin bar? It looks like we will have one, if my interpretation is correct.

It happened to USDCAD on Friday. It looked like a daily pin bar and then I thought of entering long - I didn't do it due to the strong downtrend.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #4,504
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:05pm Apr 11, 2011 3:05pm
Quoting harvest3r
highlander, I was checking your blog and saw some interesting stuff, especially the daily pin bar issue.

A question: would you short silver tonight if we get a pin bar? It looks like we will have one, if my interpretation is correct.

It happened to USDCAD on Friday. It looked like a daily pin bar and then I thought of entering long - I didn't do it due to the strong downtrend.
The short answer is no i wouldnt. I normally only trade with the trend, entering on pullbacks in te direction of the dominant trend.

The usd/cad pin you talked about was not great as the close is lower than the open, a more bullish pin would have the close a bit above the open. even then i would not go long. I actually had a short on the usd/cad 4hr last week and bagged a 2:1 trade.
  • #4,505
  • Edited 4:32pm Apr 11, 2011 3:33pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting harvest3r
highlander, I was checking your blog and saw some interesting stuff, especially the daily pin bar issue.

A question: would you short silver tonight if we get a pin bar? It looks like we will have one, if my interpretation is correct.

It happened to USDCAD on Friday. It looked like a daily pin bar and then I thought of entering long - I didn't do it due to the strong downtrend.
I have asked the question on the James16 thread.

The answer will be
This isn't really a pin bar. It is more of a spinning top.

IF price closed beneath $40.00 it would become a pinbar with a reasonable pin bar wick but the bull trend is massive behind it.
Price needs to close beneath the $40.00 level (which I don't see it doing on my pin bar)
If price took a good dive tonight (unlikely) we'd have a bearish outside bar. On break of the lower end of that price would very likely dump big time. But such a bar is unlikely to appear on my chart in the next 150 minutes.

The answer is - this is not an A++ bar as price is not behind the significant big round number which would act as a barrier to price going back up again.
  • #4,506
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:39pm Apr 11, 2011 4:39pm
Quoting Albedo
My friends, I'm a beginner a few months applying mainly in silver and gold, this forum, I have followed a few days I have been extremely useful.
Thanks for openly discussing here. these discussions have helped me greatly.
But let the issue, silver j, as we say here in Brazil has "descended the hill, " which is the height of this drop? 38, 37, or will fall further because of fear of a bubble?

Big hug!

ps.: I use a translator, please forgive the mistakes of English.
No-one knows where silver will fall to.
If the previous two minor retracements are anything to go by the bottom of this retracement will come down to the top of the last.
So that is just below $38.

Price had to come down at this stage, it was too high too fast but there is no indication it is falling like a stone.
Support is likely to come in when price retreats to the top of the last retracement. This is where buyers perceived value before and come back into the market to take price up.
It is also a visual support on the chart.
This would be about a $5 fall from the tops. Not huge but a decent fall.
There are those here anticipating a bigger fall in price.
  • #4,507
  • Apr 11, 2011 6:08pm Apr 11, 2011 6:08pm
Tempted to scalp long silver NOW at 40.28
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #4,508
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:04pm Apr 11, 2011 7:04pm
Quoting XTrade
Tempted to scalp long silver NOW at 40.28
Well, did you?

Wile E
  • #4,509
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:21pm Apr 11, 2011 7:21pm
Well, it seems GOLD is breaking the 1460 support. Will be an intrresting London session methinks...
  • #4,510
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:21pm Apr 11, 2011 7:21pm
I longed it.

I believe it will go up one more time, before crashing down.
  • #4,511
  • Apr 11, 2011 7:51pm Apr 11, 2011 7:51pm
Crashing down? Do you honestly think that gold will crash down? Seriously, man...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #4,512
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:48pm Apr 11, 2011 8:48pm
It will not happend what you expecting, it just an retracement.

1430 possible than fly north... looking 1500 zone.

Quoting MapleLeaf
Crashing down? Do you honestly think that gold will crash down? Seriously, man...
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #4,513
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:06pm Apr 11, 2011 9:06pm
Quoting khizer
It will not happend what you expecting, it just an retracement.

1430 possible than fly north... looking 1500 zone.

Exactly.. as you can see I also think it will reach 1500 soon. Check my sentiment since january until 2012.

I was just asking how can some people think that Gold will crash down.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #4,514
  • Edited 10:44pm Apr 11, 2011 10:08pm | Edited 10:44pm
Quoting lilpip
although we having strong moves up my eyes are open and watching how 41.46-80 responds.
looking at the quarterly 41.46 area is of extra interest along with 41.80 on the weekly
If we have a drop below 41.35 will consider it as heads up as indication of heading towards 39.80 and will be looking for direction from there.
gold
watching how 1481-(84 weekly) respond and keeping in mind 1490 area looking at quarterlies
daily
1481
1459
1437
will be an interesting 2 weeks.
secondary trend ( quarterly ) has achieved quarterly highs @ 41.46.
lesser trend (weekly) has achieved its high 41.84.
and as beeb mentioned look at smaller time frames to figure out direction of the higher time frame. So I will.
yesterday as expected we rotated back from the highs including the daily at 41.35, which confirmed the days trend south towards pivot.
gold turned also and hit pivot or daily trend guide 1459.
the question now is will the days trend be up and break through this first attempt at quarterly highs and countinue upward trend ?
or will the daily trend guide not hold and continue south ?
the chart will tell us with pivot being trend guide.
daily gold
1478-79
1456 with eye on 66
1433
gold weekly
1484
1452
1432
should be interesting how 1452 area responds this week.
dailysilver
42
40
38
weekly
41.78
38.97
36.16
Inserted Video
  • #4,515
  • Apr 12, 2011 12:37am Apr 12, 2011 12:37am
Just a heads up... With Japan upping its’ nuclear crisis level to 7, on par with Chernobyl a large sell off in GOLD is much more likely now... Have a safe trade guys...
  • #4,516
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:24am Apr 12, 2011 1:24am
Quoting lilpip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ykv5U...layer_embedded
snake oil salesman


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

However, analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged caution, due to the silver market's current "hefty surplus." According to the bank, the overall available inventory of silver could be as high as 31,000 tons or more, the equivalent to more than one year's global demand for fabrication.
Stockpiles of other industrial metals tend to cover a few months, if not weeks, of demand.
"The message is do not chase silver at these levels," those analysts said in a recent note
  • #4,517
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:25am Apr 12, 2011 1:25am
GC in a downtrend still - here's a 10min fork that is in frequency with that downtrend.

http://www.screencast.com/t/bkOjcCPzjd2


The first hints that the trend is changing is when price starts taking out some of the overhead lines which are resistance....

beeb
  • #4,518
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:42am Apr 12, 2011 2:42am
Quoting beeb
GC in a downtrend still - here's a 10min fork that is in frequency with that downtrend.

http://www.screencast.com/t/bkOjcCPzjd2


The first hints that the trend is changing is when price starts taking out some of the overhead lines which are resistance....

beeb
beeb
Have you got a second silver fork since last night which is directed upwards.
Price is marching up yesterday's 10min fork.
So I drew another.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver fork.PNG Size: 65 KB
  • #4,519
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:52am Apr 12, 2011 2:52am
With the Japanese nuclear crisis worsening, can we expect Gold to go further down in the London session..?
  • #4,520
  • Apr 12, 2011 3:12am Apr 12, 2011 3:12am
Quoting six gun
beeb
Have you got a second silver fork since last night which is directed upwards.
Price is marching up yesterday's 10min fork.
So I drew another.
Consider yourself applauded - you could possibly tweak it a bit so that it alligns with the path of price......

Here's a 1 minute SI that I just drew (modified schiff) - looks good at the moment because the double bounce on the lower quartile and rejection at the upper quartile implies it is in tune with the price....

beeb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: si_1min.jpg Size: 68 KB
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