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Convince me on your method...

  • #1
  • First Post: Apr 11, 2011 12:20pm Apr 11, 2011 12:20pm
If you were to suggest a method of trading, which ones would you recommend and why?

1. Order Flow
2. VSA
3. Supply and Demand combined with PA
4. Fibs ala Skunny
5. Combination of above? Or something else?

I have been working heavily on supply and demand zones and they have been working well for me. But I can't help but notice some other threads talking about Order Flow or VSA trading. I don't know much about them and how difficult it would be to gain the level of understanding to benefit so I was hoping to get other people's thoughts.

Which one is better and why? How difficult would it be to gain the requisite level of expertise?

Your thoughts would be appreciated.
  • #2
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:31pm Apr 11, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting newark18
If you were to suggest a method of trading, which ones would you recommend and why?

1....
Stay with things that work. If the supply and demand zones work for you, then no need to switch systems.
  • #3
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:41pm Apr 11, 2011 12:41pm
Custos,

That is the smart thing to do. But that's no fun.
  • #4
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:47pm Apr 11, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting newark18
If you were to suggest a method of trading, which ones would you recommend and why?

1. Order Flow
2. VSA
3. Supply and Demand combined with PA
4. Fibs ala Skunny
5. Combination of above? Or something else?

I say VSA is number one by a long shot. I consider supply and demand and order flow to be wonderful areas of study (I know less about order flow).

I say VSA is 1 because it tells you the levels that are important to the big players. They can't hide their volume, even if you're watching a tick chart.

Supply and demand levels are great to be aware of but in reality if they're important they will be highlighted through VSA. If you look into VSA remember that it's not about signals, so much as a way of reading the market. I like the analogy of VSA being like a language, and the particular types of bars etc are words that only make sense when they are taken into a larger context.

I'd also like to mention that the market is an auction, and learning about AMT principles can't hurt, namely: value, inventory, retail prices.

Edit:

I forgot to mention, regarding other ways of identifying important levels like fibs/pivots/sr/trend lines whatever you are the best with, if they are important enough, VSA will show to you.
  • #5
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:49pm Apr 11, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting Custos
Stay with things that work. If the supply and demand zones work for you, then no need to switch systems.
Hell yeah
  • #6
  • Edited 1:17pm Apr 11, 2011 1:06pm | Edited 1:17pm
If done properly, supply and demand (i.e by not using price action for confirmation), you will get you the best price with minimal risk, better than any other method; VSA, fibs etc. From what I have seen of the FF threads on S&D, nobody demonstrates how to trade Supply and Demand to its greatest potential. For me trading is about minimising risk so thats the perspective I take about a method or approach. You have to figure out what is most important for you. If its fun you want, go to your nearest casino.

Order Flow is a general term. I think you need to be more specific what method you mean here.
  • #7
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:09pm Apr 11, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting newark18
Custos,

That is the smart thing to do. But that's no fun.
It's also no fun burning up time jumping around from method to method. I agree with Custos, if you've found a way which is working for you - albeit imperfectly - stick with it and improve it.

IMO a person will get to their goal (trading profitably) quicker and easier by sticking with Price Analysis. By that I mean observing what Value the market is placing on different price levels, Supply and Demand at different price levels, however you want to say it.

That versus Time/Cycle Analysis in its many forms which, again IMHO, is like beating your head against a wall and yields little in the way of results. A person reading this may say that they are using "PA" and not Time/Cycle but, it has a way of creeping into, and screwing up, basic PA.

That's it from me. Others can either chime in or not, whatever. BTW: along that line. Not giving a shit what others think is extremely helpful. LOL!

Also: I want to add that I'm not discounting the Volume component that's also being discussed here in this thread. I just don't personally include it.
  • #8
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:12pm Apr 11, 2011 1:12pm
Porkpie,

Do you mean using limit orders at zones rather than market orders after PA confirmation? I have used limit orders on recently created S&R zones but I don't have the balls to do it on ones created a while back.
  • #9
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:14pm Apr 11, 2011 1:14pm
I must clarify "working well" which, to me, means not losing 9 out of 10 times.
  • #10
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:36pm Apr 11, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting newark18
I must clarify "working well" which, to me, means not losing 9 out of 10 times.
So is supply & demand zone trading a winning or losing method for you? If it's a winning method, then stick to it. If it's a losing method then you might have to look into other things.
  • #11
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:39pm Apr 11, 2011 1:39pm
So far it has been profitable but its still early yet.
  • #12
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:41pm Apr 11, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting newark18
So far it has been profitable but its still early yet.
hm, well, as long as you stay net-profitable over the long-term I would stick to it.
  • #13
  • Apr 11, 2011 3:38pm Apr 11, 2011 3:38pm
Hi,

I would have to agree with the others by saying that if something works then don't try to fix it. Making money in this business is about consistency not chopping and changing because of boredom or a dip in performance.

Having said all of that, for me... the only systems I trade are those that trade with the trend and in the direction of the momentum so I won't be taking a trend trade whilst it is pulling back for a breather... I will only trade once the trend reasserts itself.

I use this approach when trading both short and long term setups.

Does that help?
  • #14
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:34pm Apr 11, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting Porkpie
If done properly, supply and demand (i.e by not using price action for confirmation), you will get you the best price with minimal risk, better than any other method; VSA, fibs etc. From what I have seen of the FF threads on S&D, nobody demonstrates how to trade Supply and Demand to its greatest potential. For me trading is about minimising risk so thats the perspective I take about a method or approach. You have to figure out what is most important for you. If its fun you want, go to your nearest casino.

Order Flow is a general term. I think...
Can you elaborate a little bit on how supply and demand analysis is done properly?
also if you have resources that can put me on the right path to start learning this, I would be grateful if you provide them.

Thanks!
  • #15
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:43pm Apr 11, 2011 10:43pm
Create your own method, either by modifying existing methods shared here, or by starting from scratch. Regardless of the method though, EXTREME PATIENCE is the key along with sound money management.

Once you create your method, don't share it
  • #16
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:21pm Apr 12, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting newark18
Porkpie,

Do you mean using limit orders at zones rather than market orders after PA confirmation? I have used limit orders on recently created S&R zones but I don't have the balls to do it on ones created a while back.
More to do with bigger time frame analysis to support day trades and more odds enhancer analysis to decide on whether to use confirmation market or limit orders. Its often the trades that make you feel most uncomfortable that work out the best.

VSA - a lot of fluff imo especially that trade guider business. They make it sound more complicated than it really is. But I use volume, its a great tool to use with price action and SD levels to understand background.
  • #17
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:36pm Apr 12, 2011 4:36pm
Quoting Porkpie

VSA - a lot of fluff imo especially that trade guider business. They make it sound more complicated than it really is. But I use volume, its a great tool to use with price action and SD levels to understand background.
Careful when listening to comments like this, a lot of people glance at VSA and assume they comprehend the principles.

Look into it for yourself.
  • #18
  • Apr 12, 2011 4:45pm Apr 12, 2011 4:45pm
Quoting frankkn
Careful when listening to comments like this, a lot of people glance at VSA and assume they comprehend the principles.

Look into it for yourself.
Funny you should write that. I already decided that I am going to learn VSA as a supplement to my supply and demand zone trading. I think they would work well together. And from what I understand, it would not take me forever trying to grasp its principles.
  • #19
  • Sep 11, 2011 5:22pm Sep 11, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting newark18
If you were to suggest a method of trading, which ones would you recommend and why?

1. Order Flow
2. VSA
3. Supply and Demand combined with PA
4. Fibs ala Skunny
5. Combination of above? Or something else?
Something else ;-)

I believe that markets are fractal. They consist of patterns that have the same patterns on other timeframes. I should say any timeframe. The pattern is movement (1)-retracement (2)-continuation (3). Something like an elevator inside an elevator. I enter when both elevators go the same way.

For example a breakout on a 5 min triangle can confluence with a right trendline break on the 1 min.... This is the moment to enter. It can happen that the triangle breaks on the 5 minute but you can see on the 1 minute it's just not the moment yet to enter the trade...

After a few 1 min bars I "zoom out" again to the 5 minute chart and continue from there. This is in short my method regarding entries. Of course there comes more to it (money and risk management, exits, etc)

regards,
Ivo
Trouble lies in what we believe to know for sure that just ain't so.
  • #20
  • Sep 11, 2011 9:40pm Sep 11, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting newark18
If you were to suggest a method of trading, which ones would you recommend and why?

1. Order Flow
2. VSA
3. Supply and Demand combined with PA
4. Fibs ala Skunny
5. Combination of above? Or something else?

I have been working heavily on supply and demand zones and they have been working well for me. But I can't help but notice some other threads talking about Order Flow or VSA trading. I don't know much about them and how difficult it would be to gain the level of understanding to benefit so I was hoping to get other people's thoughts.

Which...
What is better is that you figure out what is best for you. ONE of the few truths in forex is this:

Extreme Consensus + Extreme Speculation=
Extreme Price

OK.... I just read that recently and thought it was worth repeating. But you can do all the VSA, S&D, PGA, TA, PA or NFL (whut?) analysis that you want to.

But have you thought about this; "Sentiment analysis is so important because it embodies the collective wisdom of the market ... it's grounded in human action."

Or as Soros said “currency markets are driven by real people based on their best guess of what future currency prices will be."


So, analyze those things with all those "scientific methods" and see what you come up with.


One thing to understand about the spot forex market is that it is like no other. There is no P/E ratio, no brick and mortar or online business with which to compare. No downside. No upside. That which often seems logical in the corporate world is illogical in the FX world. Sentiment.. Consensus... Speculation... I need an indicator for that.
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