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vsa with Malcolm

  • #18,421
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:51am Apr 11, 2011 8:51am
Quoting pres78
The one thing I have found in my trading and I am actually going to look back and see if this is the case is that tests of triggers tend to be more successful after price has moved away some from the trigger bar before testing. I have noted other examples like the one you posted where we never moved away at all before printing a test bar and in turn the trade was never very successful. Also the shear volume and spread of the test bar is a bit odd... yes the volume was lower than the previous 2 bars but relative to previous volumes it was still quite...
We are revisiting that trigger as I type this, lets see hope for a signal.
  • #18,422
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:03am Apr 11, 2011 9:03am
Good Morning Friends: attached is a 5M EU chart showing where I think a buy stop open position order should have been placed in response to a NS test bar marked by the red dotted vertical line. I did not trade this because I am in my penalty box for trade plan violation last Friday. Although my program of metal programming is proceeding, I've still a great endeavor from where I need to be trading psychology-wise prior to being confident to bring my retirement account to work Forex. Nevertheless, I appreciate all the good knowledge on this thread as it will ultimately enable me to achieve prosperity for my family. Many Thanks and Best Wishes for Big Profits.
***************
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  • #18,423
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:03am Apr 11, 2011 9:03am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Very slow news day and the markets are reflecting this. There is a small trade I am playing on the gbpchf though. My chart is a 30 min.
Hey sono!

just wondered something with your trading. I know youve posted larger timeframes as of late. but i remember you also post the odd 5 min chart.

I just wondered do you trade off the large timeframes more? If so just wondered what you risk/drawdown is like? (if you dont mind me asking)

do you also keep track of all the Major USD and GBP correlated pairs?

Cheers!
  • #18,424
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:16am Apr 11, 2011 9:16am
Quoting Tea_trader
Hey sono!

just wondered something with your trading. I know youve posted larger timeframes as of late. but i remember you also post the odd 5 min chart.

I just wondered do you trade off the large timeframes more? If so just wondered what you risk/drawdown is like? (if you dont mind me asking)

do you also keep track of all the Major USD and GBP correlated pairs?

Cheers!
I trade any pair that show a highly probable vsa setup. I use the same time frames on all my analysis. From 5 min up to weekly.
  • #18,425
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:22am Apr 11, 2011 9:22am
Hey, son, are you long or short? Your chart was a little lacking in arrow direction. thanks.
  • #18,426
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:48am Apr 11, 2011 9:48am
Quoting steroidman
Hey, son, are you long or short? Your chart was a little lacking in arrow direction. thanks.
It should have been evident I was long
  • #18,427
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:18am Apr 11, 2011 10:18am
So I am not trading today but I have been checking the charts... just looked at 15min GU and saw a really nice example of a comment I made earlier about price moving away before coming back to test a trigger level as giving the best moves off said test.

The green line at 6332 is obviously the trigger level from my highest volume 15 min bar today.

I want to start looking 2 bars before my first red line;

1. Volume has been steadily increasing but in all honesty we haven't been making any extreme headway. This bar closed well off it's lows as well.
2. Another major increase in volume and we have closed on the lows... now I wonder have we finally grabbed some sellers.
3. First red line... this bar is up and the highest volume of all. If all this volume has been selling then how could this bar be up? Still with that increase in volume I don't have a trade but I do have a trigger.
4. Next bar is a NS/test but we closed lower than the trigger.
5. I am going to skip ahead for the moment to Red line 2... We have moved away from the trigger and have now started to move back towards it. The two bars before red line 2 we see a 2 bar reversal into the trigger line however bar 2 of this does make a lower low. Red line 2 bar is the one I have been waiting for... a beauty test with it's low right on the trigger level. Long at the high of this bar.

Now let's go back for a moment...

Looking at the two yellow line I have marked we see a squat bar that is unable to make a lower close for the day despite that spike in volume and it went absolutely nowhere... good signs we might be in for a reversal in PA.

Yellow line 2 is actaully a nice hidden tes bar which actually makes a lower low for the day but closes well up on it't highs showing us an aparent lack of sellers. Now after seeing this one could have taken a long off this bars high safely as well we have now seen buying and lack of sellers to stop it.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,428
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:43am Apr 11, 2011 10:43am
I'm in work at the moment so it's a pain to post a chart, but there's a nice short on Eddie not long gone.

Trigger number from close of the 14:50 GMT bar @ 1.4452.

Price moves away from the trigger and comes back on No demand at 16:05 GMT. Now, this ND does make a lower low than the previous bar but it holds good none the less. Entry on the low of this bar. Not a massive move, but 1:1 was easily hit.

I'll post a chart later on tonight.
  • #18,429
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:47am Apr 11, 2011 10:47am
Quoting pres78
So I am not trading today but I have been checking the charts... just looked at 15min GU and saw a really nice example of a comment I made earlier about price moving away before coming back to test a trigger level as giving the best moves off said test.

The green line at 6332 is obviously the trigger level from my highest volume 15 min bar today.

I want to start looking 2 bars before my first red line;

1....
Lovely set up, looking at it on my charts, the entry bar isn't a down bar nor does it have volume less than previous two.

Prime example of what you've said before about reading your own charts and getting to know them.
  • #18,430
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:50am Apr 11, 2011 11:50am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi,

Is there an other broker than FxPro which is closing at the right time so that no bar is created for Sundays? I've tried to install FxPro, but the proxy configuration doesn't work.
I don't know of others personally (wasn't MBT MT4 converting to EST time?) but in case it helps, you should be able to use either the FxPro you installed or any MT4 in fact, by pointing it to their server 62.216.249.151 (Tools->Options->Server) which I think MT4 may eventually replace with "FxPro.com-Demo1 - FXPRO Financial Services Ltd" as the translated server name.
  • #18,431
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:25pm Apr 11, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
It should have been evident I was long

Assume I don't know what is in your mind and head as well as you do.
  • #18,432
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:41pm Apr 11, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting pres78
So I am not trading today but I have been checking the charts... just looked at 15min GU and saw a really nice example of a comment I made earlier about price moving away before coming back to test a trigger level as giving the best moves off said test.

The green line at 6332 is obviously the trigger level from my highest volume 15 min bar today.

I want to start looking 2 bars before my first red line;

1....
It is truly a lovely chart, analysis & entry. Plus, you're giving me a run for my money on the number of lines on the chart ... so, I'm going to out do you ! (Pres's original chart on left, mine on the right)

Only though, to present a few more observations and additions that can be a clue to turns coming, and to keep one's eye open. Yes, it's busy, but damnit, it can work, and allows for closer/tighter entries IMO. Disclaimer: not much VSA here, but builds on the details that pres scripted.

1) I throw up the Tigertron indicator which plots many of those additional lines including the bottom bounce/resistance at yesterday's (Friday's) low - a high potential bounce point
2) That dip and bounce up to 63308 I'm also showing as a POC and 38.2% fib.
3) The previous day's high (Thursday) held for a while, and then the test ensued that you've VSA'ed here so well. Today's open was also resistance, but then PA subsequently shoots up through both a former high and today's open.
4) POC @ 638 which was formerly resistance, now turned support
5) The shoot up into yesterday's high @ 64275 and high likelihood of double topping, given the time of day it occured (FTSE close) - perhaps a cue for partial profit taking and SL adjustment.


Busy? No doubt. Helpful? I think so - to me it helps with additional warm fuzzies on potential turning points. Today's tight PA and seeming-Monday confusion is ideal for these types of turns & entries.

The one thing that strikes me about the Tadawul volume is the significant lack thereof after that bounce off 6332. Also plots a different distribution, but POC's are almost spot on, although I've been blessed with a few more. Very unusual IMO and I'm not sure what to make of it; I quickly just checked FxPro and distribution is very much like Tadawul; there's something unique about my Citibank volume - it's very pronounced and 'volumous' on that move up to 1.642.
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  • #18,433
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:17pm Apr 11, 2011 1:17pm
So this time GU gave a nice short entry on the 5 min...

Green lines are the 3 trigger points of the highest volume bar that you can see to the left. H/L and C.

I have marked 2 trades... agressive and safe by the rules;

Yellow lines left to right;

1. Yellow line 1 we have an UT followed by confirmation
2. Yellow line 2 we get a ND pinbar and entry 2 bars later...

Agressive entry as we are between the hull (still blue) and the PAL.

Now the nice safe trigger entry;

Red lines left to right;

1. Highest volume trigger bar with 3 levels marked for easy reference
2. Another high volume bar with it's low at the same level as bar 1's low... nice confirmation that the low might become a good trigger
3. ND with it's close right on the trigger level given by bars 1 and 2. Entry on the very next bar.

Now look at the background we had leading into trade 2... PA is below the red hull and PAL by the time the signal ND printed. Also look at what happened as we entered bar 1's trigger zone. We moved down and then had a few wider spread up and down bars... the very last two bars are of most interest as they form a nice 2 bar reversal off bar 1's close trigger. We then have 2 bars that take us outside the trigger zone followed by that 3 bar move up ending in the ND / entry. All the signs were there that we were in for more weakness and downside.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #18,434
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:27pm Apr 11, 2011 1:27pm
Difference between futures and Spot FX.
Clearly distribution if you'd ask me. They try to hide for the herd in the spot FX. Look difference.
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  • #18,435
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:31pm Apr 11, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting hutrader
Difference between futures and Spot FX.
Clearly distribution if you'd ask me. They try to hide for the herd in the spot FX. Look difference.
What's your broker, hutrader? Which charting platform provides futures fx, may I ask?
Thank you!
  • #18,436
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:34pm Apr 11, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting duyk20
What's your broker, hutrader? Which charting platform provides futures fx, may I ask?
Thank you!
Interactive brokers, but you can use esignal to I think and so on.
  • #18,437
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:37pm Apr 11, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting hutrader
Interactive brokers, but you can use esignal to I think and so on.
Gotcha, thank you. What do you think about their volume feed? Is it tradable? I'm downloading demo now, hopefully they have all fx and futures fx there Do you know how long the demo last?
  • #18,438
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:43pm Apr 11, 2011 1:43pm
Quoting duyk20
Gotcha, thank you. What do you think about their volume feed? Is it tradable? I'm downloading demo now, hopefully they have all fx and futures fx there Do you know how long the demo last?
Don't know, just try it.
6BM1 is the ticker you need for GU.
  • #18,439
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:45pm Apr 11, 2011 1:45pm
Quoting hutrader
Difference between futures and Spot FX.
Clearly distribution if you'd ask me. They try to hide for the herd in the spot FX. Look difference.
Have to agree - hadn't been following 6B, but it's been a beeline down since 1.642 - my spot volume shows as much volume at the top as it did at 1.63 earlier today, so the sell was easier with just (my) spot view. I think expectations for CPI are optimistic, so this type of a daily print is concerning.

Looking elsewhere, everything seems to be in struggle/distribution mode today, although the downside is not yet huge, and, Monday's are tricky. ES looking like it's failing 1324 - I was trying for what looked like longs to get there, but it's been rejected so far with determined sellers waiting. Not sure what to make of EU - daily range is terrible - they are supporting the price though.
  • #18,440
  • Apr 11, 2011 2:22pm Apr 11, 2011 2:22pm
Steve needs the 1500 pips for new tires every week the way he drives. He hits roundabouts and does not even turn the wheel barely , just drifts his car around them at about 100 mph ...lol.... I have driven with him ... it is fun but scary

Euro there there was a guy taking profit at a price that was non existant on 3 of my feeds lol.....full of shit

Quoting Tea_trader
Screw you MR Gill !!

Are you sure you not spending to much time in that Euro thread.......! cause as we all know the people in there earn millions.....even when there completly wrong!
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